Charlotte Pod
1. Duke (ACC at-large)
Record: 10-0 overall: 0-0 conference; 2-0 vs. RPI Top 50; 2-0 vs. RPI 51-100; 4-0 vs. RPI 150+; Road/Neutral: 4-0
Average RPI win: 140; loss: 0
RPI: 8
SOS: 47
Holiday Schedule: 12/20 Elon; 12/29 @UNC Greensboro; 1/2 Miami (FL)
What more really needs to be said about the Blue Devils? Their main concern is, of course, the health of Kyrie Irving, but a light holiday schedule gives him a chance to rest and rehab.
16. Opening Round: High Point (Big South auto) vs. St. Francis (NY) (Northeast auto)
High Point
Record: 3-3 overall: 2-0 conference; 0-1 vs. RPI Top 50; 0-1 vs. RPI 51-100; 3-1 vs. RPI 150+; Road/Neutral: 1-2
Average RPI win: 156; loss: 129
RPI: 200
SOS: 225
Holiday Schedule: 12/18 @Wofford; 12/21 @Georgia; 12/31 Charleston Southern; 1/2 @Coastal Carolina
The Panthers are the temporary Big South leaders, thanks to Coastal Carolina having played one fewer game. Since High Point has to go to Conway on the second day of 2011, expect the Chanticleers to be in my next projection.
St. Francis (NY)
Record: 5-3 overall: 2-0 conference; 1-1 vs. RPI Top 50; 0-1 vs. RPI 51-100; 4-0 vs. RPI 150+; Road/Neutral: 1-3
Average RPI win: 241; loss: 77
RPI: 164
SOS: 262
Holiday Schedule: 12/14 Dartmouth; 12/20-21 Holiday Festival in New York City; 12/30 NJIT
The Terriers already own a home win over two-time defending champion Robert Morris. They also played USF close in Tampa back in mid-November.
8. Florida (SEC at-large)
Record: 7-2 overall: 0-0 conference; 2-2 vs. RPI Top 50; 2-0 vs. RPI 51-100; 0-0 vs. RPI 150+; Road/Neutral: 2-1
Average RPI win: 90; loss: 11
RPI: 6
SOS: 1
Holiday Schedule: 12/18 Kansas State (at Sunrise, FL); 12/20 Jacksonville; 12/22 Radford; 12/28 Fairfield; 12/31 @Xavier
This year's Gators look a lot like last year's edition--supremely talented, but prone to offensive lapses, particularly in the second half. A win against Kansas State Saturday would do wonders for their seeding.
9. Richmond (A-10 at-large)
Record: 8-2 overall: 0-0 conference; 1-1 vs. RPI Top 50; 1-1 vs. RPI 51-100; 5-0 vs. RPI 150+; Road/Neutral: 3-2
Average RPI win: 187; loss: 53
RPI: 38
SOS: 116
Holiday Schedule: 12/18 Georgia Tech (at Atlantis Resort, Bahamas); 12/22 @UNC Greensboro; 12/26 @Seton Hall; 12/29 Wake Forest; 1/2 Bucknell
If it wasn't for what looked to be a bad loss at Iona (after double overtime) on November 18 and a good loss at Old Dominion to start December, the Spiders would have been further up the S-curve. They have some name win opportunities coming up, but the three Big Six opponents on the holiday slate won't help their computer numbers much.
Tampa Pod
5. Villanova (Big East at-large)
Record: 8-2 overall: 0-0 conference; 0-1 vs. RPI Top 50; 1-0 vs. RPI 51-100; 6-0 vs. RPI 150+; Road/Neutral: 3-1
Average RPI win: 214; loss: 1
RPI: 54
SOS: 143
Holiday Schedule: 12/18 Delaware; 12/22 @Monmouth; 12/30 Temple; 1/2 Rutgers
The Wildcats haven't lived up to high preseason expectations yet. Much of the blame for that goes to a team that's often content to play to its opponent's level.
12. Washington State (Pac-10 auto)
Record: 7-1 overall: 0-0 conference; 0-1 vs. RPI Top 50; 1-0 vs. RPI 51-100; 5-0 vs. RPI 150+; Road/Neutral: 2-0
Average RPI win: 230; loss: 22
RPI: 112
SOS: 240
Holiday Schedule: 12/19 @Santa Clara; 12/22-25 Diamond Head Classic at Honolulu; 12/29 @UCLA; 12/31 @USC
The Cougars played Kansas State close and pounded Gonzaga, but they'll need to pull some surprises in Oahu to stay in this bracket come New Year's.
4. Missouri (Big 12 at-large)
Record: 8-1 overall: 0-0 conference; 1-1 vs. RPI Top 50; 1-0 vs. RPI 51-100; 3-0 vs. RPI 150+; Road/Neutral: 3-1
Average RPI win: 152; loss: 2
RPI: 27
SOS: 76
Holiday Schedule: 12/16 Oral Roberts; 12/18 Central Arkansas; 12/22 Illinois (at St. Louis); 12/27 Northern Illinois; 12/30 Old Dominion
This team is a final seconds collapse (against Georgetown in Kansas City) from being a line or two higher. The Showdown in St. Louis looms large for a team that will be a tough out in a loaded Big 12.
13. Harvard (Ivy auto)
Record: 6-2 overall: 0-0 conference; 0-0 vs. RPI Top 50; 0-2 vs. RPI 51-100; 6-0 vs. RPI 150+; Road/Neutral: 2-2
Average RPI win: 202; loss: 83
RPI: 96
SOS: 216
Holiday Schedule: 12/22 @Connecticut; 12/29 Monmouth; 12/31 MIT
Even though Jeremy Lin is gone, the Crimson keep on winning. With Cornell's roster depleted, Tommy Amaker's team, who's already beaten Colorado and played Michigan close, looks to be the early Ivy favorite.
Tucson Pod
6. Wisconsin (Big Ten at-large)
Record: 8-2 overall: 0-0 conference; 2-2 vs. RPI Top 50; 0-0 vs. RPI 51-100; 6-0 vs. RPI 150+; Road/Neutral: 3-1
Average RPI win: 184; loss: 23
RPI: 37
SOS: 91
Holiday Schedule: 12/13 Green Bay; 12/23 Coppin State; 12/28 Minnesota; 1/2 @Michigan
The Badgers are doing what they do best, win and surpass expectations. Of course, it helps that Boston College (their current best win) and UNLV and Notre Dame (their two losses) are winning more often than not as well.
11. Utah State (WAC auto)
Record: 7-2 overall: 0-0 conference; 0-2 vs. RPI Top 50; 0-0 vs. RPI 51-100; 5-0 vs. RPI 150+; Road/Neutral: 2-2
Average RPI win: 202; loss: 6
RPI: 32
SOS: 81
Holiday Schedule: 12/18 @Utah Valley; 12/21 Idaho State; 12/22 Western Michigan; 12/23 Troy; 12/29 Hawai'i; 12/31 San Jose State
The Aggies don't look to be at-large worthy at the moment, thanks to losses at BYU and Georgetown, but they have the potential to run wild through the WAC.
3. San Diego State (MWC auto)
Record: 9-0 overall: 0-0 conference; 2-0 vs. RPI Top 50; 1-0 vs. RPI 51-100; 3-0 vs. RPI 150+; Road/Neutral: 6-0
Average RPI win: 127; loss: 0
RPI: 11
SOS: 54
Holiday Schedule: 12/13 Cal Poly; 12/18 UC Santa Barbara; 12/21 San Francisco (at Las Vegas); 12/22 IUPUI (at Las Vegas); 12/31 Occidental
At home, on the road, or on a neutral floor, the Aztecs have been winning everywhere, even though they don't have a true point guard. While Gonzaga's struggles could impact their computer numbers in the long run, Steve Fisher's squad should have little trouble on the court before the New Year.
14. North Texas (Sun Belt auto)
Record: 7-2 overall: 0-0 conference; 0-1 vs. RPI Top 50; 1-1 vs. RPI 51-100; 6-0 vs. RPI 150+; Road/Neutral: 2-2
Average RPI win: 190; loss: 33
RPI: 114
SOS: 254
Holiday Schedule: 12/19 Texas State; 12/22 @LSU; 12/28 Panhandle State; 12/30 Arkansas-Little Rock; 1/1 Louisiana-Lafayette
The highlight of the Mean Green's season so far is a home OT win over Texas Tech back on November 16. They'll have a shot at another Red Line Upset in Baton Rouge on December 22.
Tampa Pod
7. Vanderbilt (SEC at-large)
Record: 7-2 overall: 0-0 conference; 1-2 vs. RPI Top 50; 2-0 vs. RPI 51-100; 1-0 vs. RPI 150+; Road/Neutral: 3-2
Average RPI win: 113; loss: 21
RPI: 20
SOS: 19
Holiday Schedule: 12/18 Southeastern Louisiana; 12/21 @Middle Tennessee; 12/29 Marquette; 1/2 Davidson
The Commodores third place finish in San Juan, featuring a win over North Carolina, helped their seeding, but Wednesday's OT loss at Missouri did not.
10. Texas A&M (Big 12 at-large)
Record: 8-1 overall: 0-0 conference; 1-1 vs. RPI Top 50; 1-0 vs. RPI 51-100; 6-0 vs. RPI 150+; Road/Neutral: 3-1
Average RPI win: 152; loss: 19
RPI: 59
SOS: 175
Holiday Schedule: 12/18 Arkansas (at Dallas); 12/21 Wagner; 12/31 McNeese State
On Saturday, the Aggies picked up a good win over Washington, which joins a victory over Temple as profile worthy. As for the other six Division I wins, there simply isn't much quality there.
2. Georgetown (Big East at-large)
Record: 10-1 overall: 0-0 conference; 4-1 vs. RPI Top 50; 1-0 vs. RPI 51-100; 2-0 vs. RPI 150+; Road/Neutral: 5-1
Average RPI win: 96; loss: 25
RPI: 2
SOS: 4
Holiday Schedule: 12/18 Loyola (MD); 12/23 @Memphis; 12/29 @Notre Dame; 12/1 DePaul
Yes, John Thompson II's scheduling philosophy has been erased for good, and the Hoyas will again reap the benefits in March, even if they hit a few bumps in the Big East (like last season).
15. American (Patriot auto)
Record: 5-3 overall: 0-0 conference; 1-2 vs. RPI Top 50; 0-0 vs. RPI 51-100; 4-1 vs. RPI 150+; Road/Neutral: 3-1
Average RPI win: 247; loss: 80
RPI: 143
SOS: 196
Holiday Schedule: 12/14 @UMBC; 12/16 @Northwestern; 12/20 @Mount St. Mary's; 12/22 @Pitt; 12/29-30 Cable Car Classic (Santa Clara, CA)
The Eagles followed up a five-game win streak with three straight losses. Next up, six in a row away from Bender Arena.
RPI and schedule data from Basketball State, accessed on December 12, 2010. This information only reflects games played against Division I opponents.
Southeast Region Breakdown
Southwest Region Breakdown
West Region Breakdown