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Bracketology 2023: A First Look at the Bubble Picture

Thanks to the struggles of the Atlantic 10 and a backloaded AAC schedule, just eight conferences currently look like they’ll place more than one team in 2023’s field of 68.

Syndication: The Columbus Dispatch Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

Acknowledgements: NET rankings and records are accurate as of Friday, February 3, 2023 and reflect only games against Division I teams. Selection Sheet info is from

Before I get into the details of where each conference stands in terms of the bubble heading into the weekend, a quick reminder of how this all works.

  • As has been the case since 2011, the 2023 NCAA Tournament will feature 68 teams: 32 conference tournament winners who will claim automatic bids and 36 teams the Selection Committee will select at-large.
  • Of the 32 auto bids, it’s looking like 24 of those will come from conferences that are likely to earn one bid.
  • Combine the 8 likely multi-bid auto bid holders with the 36 at-large teams, and you’re left with 44 spots that are up for grabs. (Of course, if the power conference tournaments go haywire like they did in 2021, this number will decline as Selection Sunday gets closer.)

So, How Many of the 44 Spots Remain Open on February 3rd?

Based on the designations below:

  • 14 teams are currently locks.
  • 12 teams are near-locks.
  • That’s 26 of 44 spots gone, leaving just 18 for the bubble.

But What Exactly Is a “Lock” With 5 Weeks to Play?

While there is an element of “you know it when you see it” involved here, I consider a power conference team a lock based on simple math. For an example, I’ll look at Kansas, who isn’t the “lock of locks” at the moment (that’s Purdue), but still has a good enough record that they’re not going anywhere.

  • Kansas is currently 18-4.
  • The Jayhawks have 9 regular-season games remaining and a minimum of 1 conference tournament game.
  • Assuming each and every single one of these 10 remaining games is a loss, KU’s Selection Sunday record would be 18-14.
  • Considering that the most losses for an at-large team is 15—shared by a trio of recent 19-15 SEC squads (2017 Vanderbilt, 2018 Alabama, and 2019 Florida)—and that Kansas’s metrics are likely to still be very good, given the strength of the Big 12 and their earlier results, I would still expect the Jayhawks to be in the field even after losing streak that would fly in the face of all logic, common sense, and recent performances.

I’m going to paraphrase Monty Burns in “Homer at the Bat” here, so humor me.

  • In other words, if a power conference team can go on a nonsensical losing streak over the final five weeks and while being mathematically able to get to 18-14 or 19-15 (when we get to the final week), it will be classified as a “lock” or “near lock” based on an examination of its selection sheet and metrics.
  • As the weeks go on, I’ll update the math, but it will still apply the same general principles.

Naturally, the standards for mid-major programs will be different because of the quality of their remaining opponents, who won’t rate as highly. That’s very important to note after last night.

All times are p.m. Eastern, unless noted.

American Athletic

Lock (1)

  • Houston (21-2/9-1 AAC/10-1 vs. Q1 & Q2/4-1 vs. Q1/NET: 1/KenPom: 1—1 Q3 loss: Temple (H))

The big question for the Cougars is whether they can hold on to a No. 1 seed. It won’t be as easy as you’d expect given the lack of quality in the American this season.

On the Bubble

  • Memphis (17-5/7-2/6-5/1-2/42/36)
  • UCF (13-8/4-5/4-5/1-3/66/63—3 Q3 losses: Temple (H), South Florida (A), and UNC Asheville (H))
  • Cincinnati (14-8/6-4/1-7/0-5/78/60—1 Q3 loss: Northern Kentucky (A))

While Houston has already defeated both UCF and Cincinnati twice, it won’t play Memphis for the first time until the Tigers visit the Fertitta Center on February 19. The pair will meet again on March 5 at FedEx Forum.

The Games Ahead

Saturday: UCF at Cincinnati, 12 (ESPNU) | Tulane at Memphis, 2 (ESPNU);

Sunday: Houston at Temple, 6 (ESPN2)

Similarly, this will be the first meeting of the season between the Knights and Bearcats, both of whom are running out of opportunities for quality victories. They’ll play again in Orlando on February 19. Sunday’s game in Philadelphia has lots of intrigue, as an Owl win would tie them with Houston for first, with Temple owning the tiebreaker by virtue of a season sweep. However, the Owls (14-9, 8-2) aren’t really an at-large threat at the moment, despite a 3-0 record in Quad 1 games. That’s thanks to a combination of a a NET ranking of 114, a KenPom ranking of 104, an 0-3 record in Quad 2 games, four ugly Quad 3 losses (Tulane and Vanderbilt at home, Richmond on a neutral floor, and Penn at the Palestra) and a pair of hideous Quad 4 setbacks (Maryland-Eastern Shore and Wagner, both at the Liacouras Center).


Lock (1)

Near Locks (2)

Tricky games await the Hurricanes and Wolfpack this weekend, which keeps them out of the “lock” group for another week.

On the Bubble

  • Duke (16-6/7-4/6-6/2-6/23/30)
  • North Carolina (15-7/7-4/6-7/1-6/43/35)
  • Pittsburgh (16-7/9-3/8-6/4-2/58/61—1 Q4 loss: Florida State (H))
  • Clemson (18-5/10-2/7-2/3-2/65/70—1 Q3 loss: Boston College (A) and 2 Q4 losses: Loyola Chicago (N) and South Carolina (A))
  • Virginia Tech (13-9/3-8/5-8/2-5/53/53—1 Q3 loss: Boston College (A))
  • Wake Forest (14-9/6-6/4-8/2-6/75/74—1 Q3 loss: LSU (N))
  • Syracuse (13-10/6-6/1-8/0-5/100/88—1 Q3 loss: Colgate (H) and 1 Q4 loss: Bryant (H))

Duke and UNC are in the best shape here, though the Tar Heels could use a win at Cameron Indoor given their lack of success in Quad 1 games. While Clemson leads the ACC at the moment, the Tigers’ position seems tenuous given their tendency to play close games. If they fall, three bad losses might prevent the Committee from giving them an at-large. Pitt, on the other hand, has just one bad loss to go with four Quad 1 wins. Virginia Tech needs to get its conference record closer to .500 over the long term to match a Wake Forest team whose metrics are lacking. Then there’s Syracuse, without a Quad 1 win and lagging with the computers after missing several opportunities.

Auto Bid Only: Boston College (11-12); Notre Dame (10-12); Georgia Tech (7-14); Florida State (7-16); Louisville (3-19)

The Games Ahead

Saturday: Virginia at Virginia Tech, 12 (ESPN2) | Georgia Tech at NC State, 1 (ACCN)| Wake Forest at Notre Dame, 1 (ACC RSNs/ACCNX) | Miami at Clemson, 3 (ACCN) | Syracuse at Boston College. 5 (ACCN) | North Carolina at Duke, 6:30 (ESPN)

Monday: Duke at Miami, 7 (ESPN)

Virginia Tech has a huge opportunity to boost its fortunes in hosting its archrival on Saturday afternoon. Later in the day, NC State and Miami will face tricky matchups with “lock” status in the balance. The Hurricanes are likely to have a tough time at Littlejohn, but at least they will have a Big Monday visit from Duke to follow.

Big 12

Locks (3)

Near Lock (3)

  • Baylor (16-6/5-4/9-6/7-6/14/14)
  • TCU (17-5/6-3/9-4/5-4/16/15—1 Q4 loss: Northwestern St. (H))
  • Iowa State (15-6/6-3/8-6/6-6/15/19)

Incredibly, not only are these six Big 12 teams either locks or near locks, they have all consistently ranked among the top 20 teams in this season’s bracket projections.

On the Bubble

The Red Raiders should be in the “Auto Bid Only” category, but Monday night’s comeback win over Iowa State spared them for now. Note that the Cyclones are currently Tech’s only Big 12 and Quad 1 (or 2) win.

West Virginia and Oklahoma’s overall records are scarily similar to what they were at this point in 2022. However, the Mountaineers have far more working in their favor both in the quality win and computer metrics departments. Now, if they could just win some more conference games.

Oklahoma State was ineligible last season, but the Cowboys have quietly put themselves in position, helped without doubt by Wednesday’s Bedlam win over the Sooners, who squandered the goodwill gained by Saturday’s home rout of Alabama.

The Games Ahead

Saturday: Kansas at Iowa State, 12 (ESPN) | Texas Tech at Baylor, 1 (CBS) | TCU at Oklahoma State, 2 (ESPN+ ($)) | Texas at Kansas State, 4 (ESPN2) | Oklahoma at West Virginia, 8 (ESPN2)

Monday: Texas at Kansas, 9 (ESPN)

As usual, the Big 12 schedule is both loaded and full of variety, with top of the bracket clashes (KU at Iowa State and hosting Texas; and the Longhorns visiting K-State), true bubble games (Oklahoma State at WVU), and opportunities for teams looking for a profile boost (Tech at Baylor and TCU at Oklahoma State).

Big East

Locks (2)

  • Xavier (18-5/10-2 Big East/11-4/6-4/26/23—1 Q3 loss: DePaul (A))
  • Marquette (18-5/10-2/8-5/4-4/12/8)

Near Locks (2)

  • UConn (17-6/6-6/7-5/4-5/8/6—1 Q3 loss: St. John’s (H))
  • Providence (17-6/9-3/5-6/3-5/35/27)

Oh, UConn, you would be in the top group had you not failed to win consecutive games in 2023—a run that turned a 3-0 Big East start to a 6-6 mark that puts the Huskies four games behind the co-leaders.

In Decent Shape

  • Creighton (14-8/8-3/6-7/2-5/17/12)

The Bluejays have gotten healthy and won five in a row and eight of 10 since dropping consecutive games in Las Vegas (to BYU and Arizona State) and their Big East opener at Marquette.

On the Bubble

  • Seton Hall (13-9/7-5/5-8/3-5/51/48)
  • St. John’s (14-9/4-8/2-8/1-6/94/79—1 Q3 loss: Villanova (H))

Given the Red Storm’s terrible metrics, Shaheen Holloway’s first Pirate team is in far better position to become the sixth Big East team in the field.

Auto Bid Only: Butler (11-12); Villanova (10-12); DePaul (9-14); Georgetown (6-17)

The Games Ahead

Saturday: UConn at Georgetown, 12 (FS1) | Butler at Marquette, 2 (FS1) | St. John’s at Xavier, 5 (Fox) | Villanova at Creighton, 7:30 (Fox)

Sunday: DePaul at Seton Hall, 12 (FS1)

While there are some nice name-brand matchups here, all of these games pit contenders against teams that are either out of the race or falling away (again, St. John’s).

Big Ten

Lock (1)

  • Purdue (22-1/11-1 Big Ten/12-1/9-1/3/3)

Near Locks (2)

  • Rutgers (15-7/7-4/7-6/4-4/19/17—1 Q3 loss: Temple (N))
  • Illinois (16-6/7-4/7-6/3-5/25/22)

What a difference a year makes—the Scarlet Knights’ NET ranking was outside of the top 90 at this point in 2022.

In Decent Shape (3)

  • Iowa (14-8/6-5/9-7/6-5/33/33—1 Q4 loss: Eastern Illinois (H))
  • Indiana (15-7/6-5/6-7/2-6/22/21)
  • Michigan State (14-8/6-5/7-7/4-6/47/42—1 Q3 loss: Notre Dame (A))

It’s the opposite story for the Hawkeyes, who were a top 20 NET team at this point last season despite not having the quality wins to show for it. Now Iowa has six Quad 1 wins with a NET that’s decent, but not quite so sterling.

On the Bubble

  • Northwestern (15-7/6-5/6-7/4-4/57/58)
  • Penn State (14-8/5-6/5-8/2-6/54/46)
  • Wisconsin (13-8/5-6/7-8/4-6/8/65)
  • Michigan (12-10/6-5/5-9/2-8/71/56—1 Q4 loss: Central Michigan (H))

Last night’s 68-51 Michigan win at Northwestern and Wisconsin’s 63-60 road victory over Ohio State both have the potential to shake up the Big Ten bubble picture for the remainder of the season. The Wildcats are the team that’s in the most danger thanks to a backloaded schedule that sees them play contenders in all nine of their remaining games, with just four of those coming at home—which might not mean much based on how they played against Michigan in Evanston.

Auto Bid Only: Ohio State (11-11); Nebraska (10-13); Minnesota (7-14)

Since the Buckeyes sit at .500 after dropping eight of their last nine, they are auto bid only at the moment despite a NET ranking of 36 and KenPom rank of 32.

The Games Ahead

Saturday: Michigan State vs. Rutgers at Madison Square Garden, 12 (Fox) | Illinois at Iowa, 2:30 (Fox) | Purdue at Indiana, 4 (ESPN) | Maryland at Minnesota, 9 (BTN)

Sunday: Ohio State at Michigan, 1 (CBS) | Penn State at Nebraska, 4:30 (BTN) | (10) Northwestern at Wisconsin, 6:30 (BTN)

Just two Big Ten games this weekend feature teams out of the at-large race, but Minnesota and Nebraska can definitely play spoiler in hosting Maryland and Penn State, respectively. Ohio State and Northwestern are another pair of teams that will need to work hard to pick up needed road victories for their fading chances.


In Good Shape

  • Boise State (17-5/8-2 MW/7-4/2-2/20/25—1 Q4 loss: South Dakota State (H))
  • San Diego State (16-5/8-2/6-5/2-4/28/28)

The Broncos and Aztecs meet for the first time this season tonight at Viejas, with the rematch set for Tuesday, February 28th. Tonight’s winner will move closer to “lock” status.

On the Bubble

  • New Mexico (18-4/6-4/4-3/3-2/37/51—1 Q3 loss: Fresno State (A))
  • Nevada (16-6/7-3/7-6/2-5/34/52)
  • Utah State (17-5/7-3/5-3/0-3/32/44—2 Q4 losses: Weber State (H) and SMU (N))
  • UNLV (14-7/4-6/6-4/1-3/74/77—3 Q3 losses: San Francisco (H), Colorado State (H), and Fresno State (A))
  • San José State (12-9/4-5/3-7/0-5/113/113—2 Q3 losses: Hofstra (H) and Pacific (A))

Utah State’s 84-73 home win over New Mexico pushed the Aggies right into the thick of the race, though Ryan Odom’s squad is both without a Quad 1 victory and in possession of two Quad 4 losses. Those might limit the Ags’ chances in a crowded bubble race. UNLV and SJSU both appear here, though the Runnin’ Rebels conference struggles have hampered both their metrics and record in Quad 3 games, while the Spartans’ soft non-conference schedule restricts their chances of breaking into the NET and KenPom top 100s.

Auto Bid Only: Air Force (12-11); Colorado State (9-13); Fresno State (6-14); Wyoming (6-14)

The Games Ahead

Friday: Boise State at San Diego State, 9 (FS1) | Fresno State at UNLV, 11 (FS1) | Air Force at Nevada, 11 (CBSSN)

Saturday: Utah State at Colorado State, 8 p.m. (CBSSN)

Besides the showdown at Aztec Mesa, UNLV’s visit from Fresno looms large, thanks to the Bulldogs’ 76-63 home win on January 21st. Utah State, meanwhile, must be careful on its trip to Fort Collins.


Locks (2)

  • Arizona (20-3/9-3 Pac-12/11-3/7-2/10/11)
  • UCLA (18-4/9-2/9-4/4-4/5/5)

Not only are the Wildcats and Bruins locks, they’re in great position to earn protected seeds. However, Arizona’s ceiling is higher because of their high-quality wins (Tennessee, UCLA) when compared to UCLA (whose best are Maryland and Kentucky)

On the Bubble

  • USC (16-6/8-3/7-5/3-4/52/40—1 Q3 loss: FGCU (H))
  • Arizona State (16-7/7-5/6-6/2-3/63/67—1 Q4 loss: Texas Southern (A))
  • Oregon (13-10/7-5/6-8/2-5/59/55—2 Q3 losses: Utah Valley (H) and UC Irvine (H))
  • Utah (15-9/8-5/4-8/2-5/55/54—1 Q3 loss: Stanford (H))
  • Colorado (13-11/5-8/5-6/2-4/76/64—4 Q3 losses: Washington (H), UMass (N), Oregon State (A), and Grambling State (A) and 1 Q4 loss: California (A))
  • Washington (13-11/5-8/3-9/1-8/123/108—2 Q3 losses: Cal Baptist (H) and Oregon State (A))

While USC has risen up the bubble since Vincent Iwuchukwu’s debut in the New Year, the rest of the Pac-12’s middle class has failed to distinguish itself. Last night was particularly rough for the majority of these alleged contenders. Utah lost Gabe Madsen for 4 to 6 weeks because of injury, then dropped a home game to Stanford. Oregon was obliterated by Arizona at McKale While ASU defeated Oregon State and Colorado took out Cal, neither one of those victories will do much to move the needle. Washington, meanwhile, won the second half at Pauley after UCLA put the game out of reach in the first 20.

Auto Bid Only: Stanford (10-12); Washington State (10-14); Oregon State (8-14); California (3-19)

The Games Ahead

Saturday: Washington State at UCLA, 7 (Pac-12 Networks) | Washington at USC, 9:30 (FS1) | Oregon State at Arizona, 9:30 (Pac-12 Networks) | Oregon at Arizona State, 10 (ESPN2)

Sunday: California at Utah, 6 (ESPNU) | Stanford at Colorado, 7 (FS1)

There’s only one bubble game this weekend, and while it’s too early to call Oregon-ASU an elimination game, it has that feel. Utah, meanwhile, will be in real trouble should it compound Thursday’s loss with a Quad 4 setback against Cal on Sunday afternoon.


Locks (2)

Near Locks (2)

  • Auburn (17-5/7-2/7-5/1-3/29/26)
  • Missouri (17-5/5-4/7-5/3-4/45/49)

Auburn needs a bit more in the Quad 1 win department (1-3) and Mizzou’s metrics need to rise just a little to get to “lock” status, though winning two games over the next seven days would do the trick too.

In Decent Shape (1)

  • Arkansas (15-7/4-5/4-6/1-5/27/20—1 Q3 loss: LSU (A))

The Razorbacks have gotten healthy of late and won three of four after dropping four straight. The loss—a 67-64 SEC/Big 12 Challenge defeat at Baylor—may loom as a lost opportunity, however.

On the Bubble

  • Kentucky (15-7/6-3/5-6/1-6/31/34—1 Q4 loss: South Carolina (H))
  • Florida (13-9/6-3/3-9/2-7/41/38)
  • Texas A&M (15-7/7-2/4-5/2-4/48/41—1 Q3 loss: Murray State (N) and 1 Q4 loss: Wofford (H))
  • Mississippi State (14-8/2-7/3-8/2-5/49/50)
  • Georgia (14-8/4-5/3-6/1-5/116/106—2 Q3 losses: Vanderbilt (H) and Georgia Tech (A))
  • LSU (12-10/1-8/2-10/1-8/139/125)

Obviously, with super high NET and KenPom rankings, Georgia and LSU are really only here as a courtesy (and because of their records that are over .500 for now). But it’s the quartet ahead of them that have the best opportunities to crash the field, with Saturday night’s showdown in Lexington being vital for both Kentucky and Florida, who have a total of three Quad 1 wins between them.

Auto Bid Only: Vanderbilt (10-12); Ole Miss (9-13); South Carolina (8-14)

The Games Ahead

Saturday: Auburn at Tennessee, 2 (ESPN) | Arkansas at South Carolina, 3:30 (SECN) | Alabama at LSU, 4 (ESPNU) | Missouri at Mississippi State, 6 (SECN) | Florida at Kentucky, 8:30 (ESPN) | (AC) Georgia at Texas A&M 8:30 (SECN)

With Vandy entertaining Ole Miss, six of the seven SEC games on Saturday’s schedule feature teams with at-large chances. Outside of those playing in the aforementioned ESPN primetime game, Auburn and Mississippi State look to have the most to play for—in their respective games at Tennessee and against Mizzou in Starkville.


Locks (2)

  • Gonzaga (18-4/8-1 WCC/8-3/3-3/11/16)
  • Saint Mary’s (19-4/9-0/6-2/1-1/6/7)

The pair meet for the first time this season on Saturday night in Moraga.

On the Bubble

  • BYU (13-10/5-5/3-7/1-3/84/76—2 Quad 3 losses: Utah Valley (H) and Butler (N) and 1 Quad 4 loss: South Dakota (N))
  • Loyola Marymount (15-8/6-4/4-5/1-2/95/95—3 Quad 3 losses: San Francisco (H), UC Riverside (H), and Pacific (A))
  • Santa Clara (15-8/4-5/2-6/1-5/93/96—1 Quad 3 loss: San José State (H) and 1 Quad 4 loss: Pacific (H))
  • San Francisco (14-10/4-6/3-6/1-5/107/97—2 Quad 3 losses: Portland (A) and Davidson (A) and 2 Quad 4 losses: San Diego (H) and UT Arlington (H))

Honestly, the only way the WCC gets three teams in this season is if one of these squads claims a surprise auto bid. While all four have a single Quad 1 win to build upon, all have multiple Quad 3 and 4 losses that will give the Committee reason to leave them out.

Auto Bid Only: Pacific (11-11); Portland (10-13); San Diego (8-14); Pepperdine (5-17)

The Games Ahead

Saturday: Pacific at BYU, 9 (BYU TV) | Santa Clara at San Francisco, 10 (ESPNU) | Loyola Marymount at San Diego, 10 (Stadium College Sports Pacific/WCCN) | Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s, 10:30 (ESPN)

Clearly, one of these games stands head and shoulders above the other three.


In Decent Shape

  • Florida Atlantic (19-2/11-1 C-USA/4-2/2-1/21/39)

On the Bubble

  • Charleston (20-3/9-2 CAA/3-1/0-1/69/80)
  • Sam Houston (13-5/7-3 WAC/2-4/2-2/50/68—1 Q3 loss: Grand Canyon (H))

One week ago, the Owls and Cougars were both sitting pretty—Charleston had won 20 in a row, while FAU was about to join them. Now, things aren’t so rosy after three losses—two by the former Colonial leaders. Dusty May’s club looks to be in better shape, thanks to their two Quad 1 wins and top 25 NET ranking, combined with the strength of Conference USA in 2022-23. Pat Kelsey might want to get his politicking hat ready; however, as the bottom of the CAA—the bulk of Charleston’s remaining schedule—is terrible, and the Cougars surrendered control of the race for the No. 1 seed in D.C. to Hofstra last Saturday.

Sam Houston, meanwhile, is here thanks to early season wins at Utah and Oklahoma. However, the Bearkats will likely need to win the WAC auto bid in their final season in the league before heading to the new-look C-USA 4.0 for 2023-24.

The Games Ahead

Most intriguing games are in bold.

Friday: Yale at Harvard, 5 (ESPNU/ESPN+ ($)) | VCU at Saint Louis, 6:30 (CBSSN) | Mount St. Mary’s at Iona, 7 (ESPN3) | Siena at Manhattan, 7 (ESPN3) | Cornell at Princeton, 7 (ESPN+ ($)) | Kent State at Akron, 9 (ESPNU/ESPN+ ($))

Saturday: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi at Southeastern Louisiana, 12 (ESPN News/ESPN+ ($)) | Wagner at Fairleigh Dickinson, 1 (NEC Front Row) | Charleston at Delaware, 2 (NBCS Philadelphia/FloHoops ($)) | Murray State at Indiana State, 4 (CBSSN) | FIU at UAB, 4 (ESPN+ ($)) | Florida Atlantic at Charlotte, 4 (ESPN+ ($)) | Colgate at American, 4 (ESPN+ ($)) | Southeast Missouri State at Tennessee Tech, 4 (ESPN+ ($)) | Liberty at Lipscomb, 5 (ESPN+ ($)) | Sam Houston State at UT Arlington, 5 (ESPN+ ($)) | Wofford at Furman, 6 (CBSSN) | Columbia at Princeton (NBCS Philadelphia Plus/SNY/ESPN+ ($)) | Cornell at Penn, 6 (ESPN+ ($)) | Northern Kentucky at Youngstown State, 7 (ESPN+ ($)) | Dayton at St. Bonaventure, 8 (ESPNU/ESPN+ ($)) | Marshall at Louisiana, 8 (ESPN+ ($)) | North Texas at Rice, 8 (ESPN+ ($)) | Oral Roberts at Kansas City, 8 (UMKC stream) | UC Santa Barbara at CSUN, 10 (ESPN+ ($)) | Eastern Washington at Portland State, 10 (ESPN+ ($))

Sunday: Missouri State at Southern Illinois, 2 (Bally Sports South and Midwest/ESPN+ ($)) | Niagara at Siena, 2 (ESPN+ ($)) | Rider at Manhattan, 2 (ESPN3) | Iona at Fairfield, 2 (ESPN3)

Monday: Green Bay at Milwaukee, 8 (ESPN+ ($))

Enjoy the weekend! I’ll have a full projection on Tuesday.