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Bracketology 2023: A New No. 1 Overall Seed

Kansas has far too many Quad 1 wins to ignore.

The top four seeds in each region of the Blogging the Bracket Men’s NCAA Tournament projection for Tuesday, February 28, 2023.
Graphic by Chris Dobbertean, using logos from

Some quick bracket hits:

  • Yes, Kansas is 15-5 in Q1 games and 18-5 against Quads 1 and 2. So, I’ve bumped the Jayhawks to the top spot overall, which puts them in Kansas City for the second week. Alabama remains in the South, Houston shifts to the West (as Las Vegas is a bit closer than New York), with Purdue in the East.
  • There are two Pac-12 2 seeds, Arizona and UCLA, who are fifth and sixth overall. They are joined by a pair of Big 12 squads, Kansas State and Baylor.
  • Texas drops to a 3 seed after getting blown out in Waco. They’re just ahead of a pair of Big East squads in Marquette and UConn, and Gonzaga, which defeated Saint Mary’s on Saturday night to earn a share of the WCC title.
  • Seed lines 4 through 6 are a mess, thanks to losing streaks and singular bad losses. Indiana is now the top 4, thanks in no small part to a season sweep of Purdue, with Tennessee, Virginia (loser of two in a row, including at Boston College), and Xavier (2-3 in its last five) following them. Miami drops to a 5 following Saturday’s home loss to Florida State, while Iowa State falls to a 6. Since starting 4-0 in Big 12 play, the Cyclones haven’t won consecutive games and have dropped eight of their last 10, including three home games.
  • Texas A&M and San Diego State join Saint Mary’s and Miami on seed line 5, with the Aggies moving up despite Saturday’s loss to Mississippi State, who is now relatively safely in as a 9.
  • At the cut line, Wisconsin remains in at Clemson’s expense, even if the Badgers lost at Michigan and Tigers blew out NC State in Raleigh. Wisconsin’s quality wins should outweigh the Tigers’ slightly superior metrics. Plus, Clemson still has some really hideous losses on its selection sheet.
  • Arizona State replaces Oklahoma State, following the Sun Devils wild win in Tucson and the Cowboys’ loss to Baylor—their fifth in a row (following a five-game win streak). West Virginia’s win at Iowa State pushed them into the last four byes, while USC impressive sweep of the Mountain squads pushed them to a 9, right next to Miss. State.

I chatted about the ACC and national pictures with Jeff and Matthew over on All Sports Discussion on Sunday night, which you can listen to below.

Of course, I joined T.J. Rives for my usual weekly bracketology rundown on College Basketball Coast to Coast earlier this afternoon.

Be sure to subscribe to both shows no matter where you get your podcasts!

Let’s look at the full picture with two weeks and two days to go.

Text-Only Bracket for Screen Readers and Seed List


  • Conference logos indicate auto bid holders.
  • Numbers in red squares indicate team’s position in the bracket’s top 16 (top four seed lines).
  • Colors next to seed numbers indicate bracket movement: yellow (new), green (seed up), red (seed down) relative to Friday’s bracket.

Graphics by Chris Dobbertean using logos from either, Wikimedia Commons, or the institutions’ websites.

Lowest-ranked NET at-large: Wisconsin (72)
Lowest-ranked KenPom at-large: Wisconsin (69)

Highest-ranked NET exclusion: Utah State (30)
Highest-ranked KenPom exclusion: Utah State (35)

Bids By Conference

23 single-bid conferences

Ins and Outs (4, 1 at-large)

New Entrants: Arizona State, Bradley (MVC), Furman (SoCon), Southern Miss. (Sun Belt)

Out For Now: Drake (MVC), Marshall (Sun Belt), Oklahoma State, Samford (SoCon)

The Games Ahead

There are still plenty of quality games ahead, even if many conferences have wrapped up their regular seasons. The mid-major games selected all have conference title or seeding implications, even if neither team has an at-large chance.

Teams in the projected field are bolded. Teams still in contention are italicized. The order of importance within each window is my editorial decision.

All times are p.m. Eastern unless noted.

For conference tournament schedules, please visit Conference Tournament Central, which will have a handy daily schedule at the top of the page.

Tuesday, February 28

NC State at Duke, 7 (ESPN)
Iowa at Indiana, 7 (ESPN2)
Clemson at Virginia, 7 (ACCN)
Saint Louis at VCU, 7 (CBSSN)
Marquette at Butler, 6:30 (FS1)
Boston College at Wake Forest, 7 (ESPNU)
Toledo at Central Michigan, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Ohio at Kent State, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Albany at Vermont, 7 (ESPN+ ($))

Texas Tech at Kansas, 9 (ESPN)
Arkansas at Tennessee, 9 (ESPN2)
San Diego State at Boise State, 9 (CBSSN)
Michigan State at Nebraska, 9 (BTN)
Villanova at Seton Hall, 8:30 (FS1)
Texas A&M at Ole Miss, 9 (ESPNU)
South Carolina at Mississippi State, 9 (SECN)
Virginia Tech at Louisville, 9 (ACCN)
Fresno State at New Mexico, 10:30 (FS1)

Wednesday, March 1

Xavier at Providence, 6:30 (FS1)
Auburn at Alabama, 7 (ESPN2)
Vanderbilt at Kentucky, 7 (SECN)
Maryland at Ohio State, 7 (BTN)
Pittsburgh at Notre Dame, 7 (ESPNU)
DePaul at UConn, 7 (CBSSN)
Sam Houston State at Stephen F. Austin, 7:30 (ESPN+ ($))

Oklahoma at Kansas State, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
UT Arlington at Utah Valley, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Georgetown at Creighton, 8:30 (FS1)

Texas at TCU, 9 (ESPN2)
Penn State at Northwestern, 9 (BTN)
Missouri at LSU, 9 (SECN)
Utah State at UNLV, 11 (CBSSN)
Chicago State at Gonzaga, 9 (KHQ/Root/AT&T SN Rocky Mtn. & SW Plus/WCCN)
Incarnate Word at Northwestern State, 9 (ESPN+ ($))
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi at Texas A&M-Commerce, 9 (ESPN+ ($))

Thursday, March 2

Michigan at Illinois, 7 (ESPN)
Rutgers at Minnesota, 7 (FS1)
Wichita State at Houston, 7 (ESPN2)
Marist at Iona, 7 (ESPN3)

Florida Atlantic at Rice, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Middle Tennessee at North Texas, 8 (CBSSN)
Alabama A&M at Grambling State, 8 (Grambling stream)
Alcorn State at Mississippi Valley State, 8 (MVSU on YouTube)

Purdue at Wisconsin, 9 (FS1)
Arizona State at UCLA, 9 (ESPN)
Memphis at SMU, 9 (ESPN2)
Norfolk State at Howard, 9 (ESPNU)
UC Santa Barbara at UC Davis, 9 (ESPN+ ($))

Arizona at USC, 11 (ESPN)
UC Irvine at UC Riverside, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
Hawai’i at CSUN, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
California at Oregon, 11 (FS1)

My next update will be on Friday Saturday (thanks to a day job deadline) But that means I’ll be updating the bracket each day until the real thing is out.