Bracketology 2023: The Homestretch Beckons

The biggest bracket moves since Monday:

• Kansas has jumped Purdue for the No. 3 overall seed, which sees the Jayhawks placed in the East and Boilermakers shipped West to Vegas.
• Thanks to a season sweep of Baylor, Kansas State is now the fourth No. 2 seed. The Bears drop down to the top No. 3.
• Marquette and Gonzaga jumped past Virginia and Iowa State to join Baylor and Tennessee (still) on the 3 line.
• The Cavaliers and Cyclones are joined on the 4 line by a pair of Committee preview oversights—UConn and Miami.
• Indiana and Xavier drop down to the 5 line alongside the Committee’s other two “on deck” teams for the protected seed group: Creighton and Saint Mary’s.
• There is an incredible logjam of Big Ten, SEC, and ACC teams in the middle of the bracket. Between the top of the 7 line and the top of the 10 line, there are five Big Ten teams, four SEC entrants, and a trio of ACC squads. The lone exception is TCU, the second 7 seed.
• West Virginia (last four byes) and Oklahoma State (last four in) swapped places following the Mountaineers’ 85-67 home win on Monday night.
• The Cowboys are joined in the First Four by USC, Mississippi State, and Wisconsin.
• Penn State is breathing down the Bulldogs’ and Badgers’ necks though. Wisconsin gets the nod over the Nittany Lions for the moment because of their Quad 1 and 2 win total, even if PSU’s metrics are superior.
• Michigan—victorious at Rutgers on Thursday night—has a decent chance of chasing down both of its conference rivals before all is said and done.

Let’s look at the full picture with two weeks and two days to go.

Text-Only Bracket for Screen Readers and Seed List

Key:

• Conference logos indicate auto bid holders.
• Numbers in red squares indicate team’s position in the bracket’s top 16 (top four seed lines).
• Colors next to seed numbers indicate bracket movement: yellow (new), green (seed up), red (seed down) relative to Monday’s bracket.

Graphics by Chris Dobbertean using logos from either SportsLogos.net, Wikimedia Commons, or the institutions’ websites.

Lowest-ranked NET at-large: Wisconsin (72)
Lowest-ranked KenPom at-large: Wisconsin (64)

Highest-ranked NET exclusion: Utah State (34)
Highest-ranked KenPom exclusion: Utah State (35)

Bids By Conference

23 single-bid conferences

Ins and Outs (3, 1 at-large)

New Entrants: Marshall (Sun Belt), Toledo (MAC), Wisconsin

Out For Now: Kent State (MAC), New Mexico, Southern Miss. (Sun Belt)

The Games Ahead

It’s going to be an extremely busy four days, and I’m not even including the first conference tournament games of 2023 on Monday night. Teams in the projected field are bolded. Teams still in contention are italicized. The order of importance within each window is my editorial decision.

All times are p.m. Eastern unless noted.

Friday, February 24

Xavier at Seton Hall, 7 (FS1)
Richmond at VCU, 7 (ESPN2/ESPN+ ($))
Iona at Mount St. Mary’s, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Siena at Rider, 7 (ESPNU/ESPN+ ($))
Queens at Liberty, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Marshall at Old Dominion, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Southern Miss. at Texas State, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Kennesaw State at Central Arkansas, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
South Alabama at Louisiana, 9 (ESPN2/ESPN+ ($))
Air Force at UNLV, 9:30 (CBSSN)
Nevada at Fresno State, 11 (FS1)

Saturday, February 25

Michigan State at Iowa, 12 (ESPN)
TCU at Texas Tech, 12 (ESPN2)
Clemson at NC State, 12 (ACC RSNs/ACCNX)
UConn at St. John’s, 12 (CBS)
Creighton at Villanova, 12 (Fox)
Oklahoma at Iowa State, 12 (ESPNU)
Stony Brook at Charleston, 12 (CBSSN)
Missouri at Georgia, 1 (SECN)
St. Francis Brooklyn at Fairleigh Dickinson, 1 (NEC Front Row)

Texas at Baylor, 2 (ESPN)
Kansas State at Oklahoma State, 2 (ESPNU)
Arkansas at Alabama, 2 (ESPN2)
Arizona State at Arizona, 2 (CBS)
UTEP at Florida Atlantic, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Buffalo at Toledo, 2 (ESPN3)
Northeastern at Hofstra, 2 (MSG/FloHoops ($))
Furman at Samford, 2 (CBSSN)
Brown at Columbia, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Dartmouth at Penn, 2 (ESPN+ ($))
Princeton at Harvard, 2 (ESPN+ ($))

Auburn at Kentucky, 4 (CBS)
Texas A&M at Mississippi State, 3:30 (SECN)
West Virginia at Kansas, 4 (ESPN)
Syracuse at Pittsburgh, 5 (ACCN)
Florida State at Miami, 4 (ESPN2)
Colgate at Navy, 4 (CBSSN)
Vermont at Bryant, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
UNC Asheville at Longwood, 4 (ESPN3)
UT Martin at Morehead State, 4 (ESPN+ ($))
Kent State at Bowling Green, 5 (ESPN3)
UNCG at ETSU, 4 (ESPN+ ($))

Virginia at North Carolina, 6 (ESPN)
South Carolina at Tennessee, 6 (SECN)
Florida at Vanderbilt, 6 (ESPN2)
George Mason at Dayton, 6 (ESPNU/ESPN+ ($))
Southern Utah at Sam Houston State, 5:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Northwestern State at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, 5:30 (ESPN+ ($))

Boise State at San José State, 7 (NBCS Bay Area/MWN)
Cornell at Yale, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Notre Dame at Wake Forest, 7 (ACCN)
Utah Valley at Abilene Christian, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Youngstown State at IUPUI, 7 (ESPN+ ($))

Indiana at Purdue, 7:30 (Fox)
USC at Utah, 8 (ESPNU)
Virginia Tech at Duke, 8 (ESPN)
DePaul at Marquette, 7:30 (FS1)
Eastern Washington at Idaho State, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
UAB at Western Kentucky, 8 (CBSSN)
Houston at East Carolina, 8 (ESPN2)
Cleveland State at Milwaukee, 8 (ESPN+ ($))

Saint Mary’s at Gonzaga, 10 (ESPN)
San Diego State at New Mexico, 10 (CBSSN)
UC Irvine at Hawai’i, 10 (ESPN2/ESPN+ ($))
Oregon at Oregon State, 10 (Pac-12 Networks)
Santa Clara at San Diego, 10 (Stadium College Sports Atlantic/WCCN)
UC Santa Barbara at UC San Diego, 10 (ESPN+ ($))

Sunday, February 26

Northwestern at Maryland, 12 (BTN)
Siena at Iona, 1 (ESPN3)
Illinois at Ohio State, 12 (CBS)
Providence at Georgetown, 12:30 (Fox)
Belmont at Northern Iowa, 12:30 (CBSSN)

Wisconsin at Michigan, 2 (CBS)
Cincinnati at Memphis, 2 (ESPN2)
Southern Illinois at UIC, 2 (Bally South and Midwest Extra/NBCS Chicago Plus/ESPN+ ($))
Missouri State at Indiana State, 2 (ESPN+ ($))

Drake at Bradley, 4 (ESPN2/ESPN+ ($))
UCLA at Colorado, 4 (CBS)
Wichita State at Tulane, 3 (ESPNU)
Valparaiso at Murray State, 4 (ESPN+ ($))

UCF at Tulsa, 5 (ESPNU)
Rutgers at Penn State, 6:30 (BTN)

Monday, February 27

North Carolina at Florida State, 7 (ESPN)
Baylor at Oklahoma State, 9 (ESPN)
West Virginia at Iowa State, 9 (ESPN2)
Nevada at Wyoming, 9 (CBSSN)
Texas Southern at Alcorn State, 8 (HBCU Go/The Grio)
Montana State at Eastern Washington, 9 (ESPN+ ($))

Since this coming Monday isn’t a holiday, it’s back to a Tuesday update this week before things really pick up next weekend.