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Bracketology 2023: What Happens When The Bubble Collectively Falls On Its Face?

The first eight teams out of today’s projected bracket all lost at least one game since Friday, while three of the final eight teams in also tasted defeat at some point.

The top four seeds in each of the four regions of Blogging the Bracket’s projection for Tuesday, February 14, 2023.
Graphic by Chris Dobbertean. Logos courtesy

At the top of the bracket, the top four seed lines consist of the same 16 teams found in Friday’s bracket, but their order has changed a bit.

  • Kansas replaced Arizona as the fourth No. 1 seed, following the Wildcats Saturday loss at Stanford.
  • Baylor is now the second No. 2 seed, behind Arizona, thanks to Monday’s win over West Virginia and a Texas road loss to Texas Tech (who is creeping back into the bubble picture). The Longhorns are now the fourth No. 2, eighth overall.
  • Marquette and Xavier flipped places on the 3 and 4 lines, thanks to the Musketeers’ Friday night loss at Butler and the Golden Eagles’ victory over Georgetown.

At the bottom of the bracket, there are four new at-large teams. While Mississippi State, Oregon, and Arizona State join fading New Mexico in the First Four, Memphis is among the “Last Four Byes.”

You will probably still see projections with North Carolina and Kentucky in them. That won’t be the case here, even if the Tar Heels and Wildcats are still in the NET Top 50. North Carolina (16-10, 8-7 ACC) is now 0-9 in Quad 1 games following Monday night’s home loss to Miami. Kentucky (16-9, 7-5 SEC) has a really good Quad 1 victory—at Tennessee—along with seven such defeats and a Q4 loss to South Carolina at home. Given the Selection Committee’s emphasis on quality wins, that’s not going to cut it for either team.

That may change when Saturday arrives; however, as CBS will air the Committee’s now annual bracket preview show at 12:30 p.m. Eastern.

Text-Only Bracket for Screen Readers and Seed List


  • Conference logos indicate auto bid holders.
  • Numbers in red squares indicate team’s position in the bracket’s top 16 (top four seed lines).
  • Colors next to seed numbers indicate bracket movement: yellow (new), green (seed up), red (seed down) relative to Friday’s bracket.

Graphics by Chris Dobbertean using logos from either, Wikimedia Commons, or the institutions’ websites.

Of these 16 teams, only Boise State, Memphis, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Arizona State did not lose over the past four days.

Lowest-ranked NET at-large: Arizona State (65)
Lowest-ranked KenPom at-large: Arizona State (66)

Highest-ranked NET exclusion: Utah State (37)
Highest-ranked KenPom exclusion: North Carolina (38)

Bids By Conference

23 one-bid conferences

Ins and Outs (7, 4 at-large)

New Entrants: Arizona State, Howard (MEAC), Memphis, Milwaukee (Horizon), Mississippi State, Oregon, Yale (Ivy)

Out For Now: Clemson (ACC), Kentucky, Maryland-Eastern Shore (MEAC), Princeton (Ivy), USC, Wisconsin, Youngstown State (Horizon)

The Games Ahead: Midweek

Games are listed their order of importance in their windows, as determined by their potential bracket impact. All times are p.m. Eastern.

Tuesday, February 14

Creighton at Providence, 7 (FS1)
Missouri at Auburn, 7 (ESPN2)
Illinois at Penn State, 7 (ESPNU)
NC State at Syracuse, 7 (ACCN)
Notre Dame at Duke, 7 (ESPN)
Nebraska at Rutgers, 8 (BTN)
Georgetown at Seton Hall, 6 (CBSSN)
Vanderbilt at South Carolina, 6:30 (SECN)
MAC: Kent State at Western Michigan, 7 (ESPN+ ($))

Kansas at Oklahoma State, 9 (ESPN)
Michigan at Wisconsin, 9 (ESPN2)
Kansas State at Oklahoma, 9 (ESPNU)
Boston College at Pitt, 9 (ACCN)
Air Force at Utah State, 9 (Stadium College Sports Atlantic/MWN)
St. John’s at DePaul. 9 (FS1)

Wyoming at New Mexico, 10 (CBSSN)
San José State at UNLV, 10 (Stadium College Sports Pacific/MWN)

Wednesday, February 15

Alabama at Tennessee, 7 (ESPN2)
Virginia at Louisville, 7 (ESPNU)
Minnesota at Michigan State, 7 (BTN)
Florida State at Clemson, 7 (ACC RSNs/ACCNX)
Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech, 7 (ACCN)
A 10: VCU at Rhode Island, 7 (YurView NE/MASN2/ESPN+ ($))
A 10: St. Bonaventure at Fordham, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Ole Miss at Florida, 6:30 (SECN)
Cincinnati at East Carolina, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
AE: New Hampshire at Vermont, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Patriot: Army West Point at Colgate, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
SoCon: UNCG at Samford, 7:30 (ESPN+ ($))

MVC: Missouri State at Bradley, 8 (ESPN+ ($))

Arkansas at Texas A&M, 9 (ESPN2)
TCU at Iowa State, 9 (ESPNU)
Indiana at Northwestern, 9 (BTN)
Kentucky at Mississippi State, 8:30 (SECN)
A 10: Davidson at Saint Louis, 9 (CBSSN)
MVC: Drake at Northern Iowa, 9 (Bally South and Midwest/NBCS Chicago Plus/ESPN+ ($))

Boise State at Colorado State, 10 (FS1)
Oregon at Washington, 11 (ESPNU)
Big West: UC Irvine at UC Santa Barbara, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
WAC: Seattle U at Cal Baptist, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
San Diego State at Fresno State, 11 (CBSSN)

Thursday, February 16

Purdue at Maryland, 6:30 (BTN)
Houston at SMU, 7 (ESPN2)
Big South: Radford at UNC Asheville, 7 (ESPNU)
C-USA: Florida Atlantic at Middle Tennessee, 7 (CBSSN)
Horizon: Milwaukee at Youngstown State, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
C-USA: North Texas at Louisiana Tech, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
ASUN: Liberty at Kennesaw State, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
CAA: Charleston at Elon, 7 (FloHoops ($))
CAA: Hofstra at Hampton, 7 (FloHoops ($))

UCF at Memphis, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Colorado at Arizona State, 8 (Pac-12 Networks)
Sun Belt: Southern Mississippi at South Alabama, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Sun Belt: ULM at Louisiana, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Southland: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi at Nicholls State, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Summit: North Dakota at Oral Roberts, 8 (ORU stream)

Ohio State at Iowa, 9 (ESPN2)
Saint Mary’s at San Diego, 9 (Bally San Diego and SoCal/NBCS Bay Area/Stadium College Sports Pacific/WCCN)
C-USA: UAB at UTEP, 9 (ESPN+ ($))
Santa Clara at BYU, 9 (CBSSN)
OVC: Tennessee State at Morehead State, 9 (ESPNU/ESPN+ ($))
Big Sky: Northern Arizona at Eastern Washington, 9 (ESPN+ ($))
Southland: Southeastern Louisiana at Northwestern State, 9 (ESPN+ ($))

Utah at Arizona, 10 (Pac-12 Networks)
Stanford at UCLA, 11 (ESPN2)
California at USC, 11 (FS1)
Gonzaga at Loyola Marymount, 11 (CBSSN)

On Friday, I will be back with a new bracket and bubble/lock update. While I will not release a bracket Saturday, Sunday will see the debut of nearly daily brackets, with the first effort based on the Selection Committee’s top four seed lines as they are revealed on Saturday.