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Bracketology 2021: One last projection for the road

It’s almost time to see the real thing.

NCAA Basketball: SEC Conference Tournament-Lousiana State vs Alabama
Alabama won a thrilling SEC Tournament final over LSU to cement its hold on the top No. 2 seed.
Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Even though there were five conference title games this afternoon, this final projection contains one change in the at-large pool since this morning, thanks to another pass at the numbers. That’s Wichita State, even with a subpar NET of 72. The Shockers’ win over Houston is the best any of the remaining bubble teams have on their profile and a victory at Ole Miss doesn’t hurt either. However, it was a lack of bad losses that pushed them past Utah State and back into the field after the final analysis.

It’s all going to depend on what the Selection Committee decides to value the most in this most unique and challenging of college basketball seasons.

Otherwise ...

  • Colgate claimed the Patriot League crown with an 85-72 home win over Loyola Maryland. Even though the Raiders played only three teams (Army West Point, Boston University, and Holy Cross) in the regular season and just two more (the Greyhounds and Bucknell) in the postseason, they’re 14-1 with the only loss coming by two points in their second game of the season. Colgate is the last 12 seed in this bracket.
  • St. Bonaventure was promoted up to the dreaded No. 9 line following its 74-65 win over VCU in the Atlantic 10 title game. The Rams remain a 10 seed after the loss.
  • Both Alabama and LSU hold on to their previous seeds, two and six, following the Crimson Tide’s 80-79 win in the SEC final in Nashville.
  • Illinois will remain the third No. 1 seed and Ohio State the second No. 2 no matter the result of the late Big Ten championship. If the Buckeyes do win, I’ll update the images to reflect that they own the auto bid.
  • And last, but not least, it looks like Houston will keep Cincinnati from claiming the American’s auto bid.

The Bracket

Stars (✴️) indicate new entrants, while arrows (⬆️ ⬇️) indicate movement up and down the seed list since Sunday morning. Teams that have won their conference’s auto bid are in gold-colored cells.


IN (1): Wichita State
OUT: Utah State

Last Four Byes: VCU, Michigan State, Maryland, UCLA
Last Four IN: Drake, Syracuse, Louisville, Wichita State
First Four OUT: Utah State, Saint Louis, Ole Miss, Boise State
Next Four OUT: Duke, Colorado State, Memphis, Seton Hall

Bids By Conference

Big Ten: 9
ACC 8:
Big 12: 7
SEC: 6
Pac-12: 5
Big East: 4
American: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
WCC: 2
One-bid conferences: 21

At some point this evening, I’ll take a quick look at my performance, but I won’t fully critique the Committee’s performance until some point on Monday. Picks to come on Tuesday or Wednesday, since we have an extra day this season.