FanPost

Schmolik 64 Update (3/13/21)


Hello, college basketball fans!

Selection Sunday is tomorrow!

Until then, we can enjoy two days of conference championship action and here is the latest Schmolik 64 update. I'm not sure I will update it before the final one, we'll see.

Bracket 1
1 Gonzaga * 26-0
16
8 Maryland 15-13
9 Florida 14-9
5 Virginia 18-6
12 Colgate 13-1
4 West Virginia 18-9
13 Buffalo 15-7
6 Villanova 16-6
11 UCLA 17-9
3 Texas 18-7
14 Liberty * 19-5
7 Loyola Chicago * 22-4
10 Virginia Tech 15-6
2 Ohio State 20-8
15 Cleveland State * 19-7
Bracket 2
1 Baylor 22-2
16
8 Connecticut 15-7
9 North Carolina 18-10
5 Colorado 22-7
12 UC Santa Barbara 19-4
4 Purdue 18-9
13 UNC Greensboro * 21-8
6 Oklahoma 15-10
11
3 Arkansas 22-5
14 Grand Canyon 13-6
7 BYU 19-6
10 Georgia Tech 16-8
2 Iowa 21-7
15 Iona 11-5
Bracket 3
1 Michigan 20-3
16 Hartford 14-8
8 San Diego State 21-4
9 Clemson 16-7
5 Tennessee 18-7
12
4 Creighton 20-7
13 Winthrop * 23-1
6 Missouri 16-9
11 Michigan State 15-12
3 Houston 21-3
14 Morehead State * 21-7
7 Wisconsin 17-12
10 St. Bonaventure 19-6
2 Oklahoma State 20-7
15 Drexel * 12-7
Bracket 4
1 Illinois 21-6
16 Oral Roberts * 13-10
8 LSU 17-8
9 Oregon 20-6
5 Texas Tech 17-10
12 Wichita State 14-4
4 Florida State 16-5
13 Western Kentucky 20-6
6 USC 22-7
11 Utah State 19-7
3 Kansas 19-8
14 Eastern Washington
7 Rutgers 15-11
10 VCU 15-4
2 Alabama 22-6
15 Mount St. Mary's * 12-10
First Four
B2 Norfolk State 13-7
16 Nicholls 17-6
B1 Prairie View A&M 16-4
16 Appalachian State * 13-11
B3 Colorado State 17-6
11 Syracuse 16-9
B3 Louisville 13-7
12 Drake 23-4

Bids By Conference:

Big Ten: 9 (Mich, OSU, Iowa, Ill, Pur, Wisc, Rut, Md, MSU) - Big 10 champ guaranteed among group

ACC: 8 (FSU, Va, Clem, UNC, GaT, VaT, Syr, Lville) - ACC champ guaranteed among group

Big 12: 7 (Bay, Kan, OkSt, WV, Tex, T Tech, Okl) - Big 12 champ guaranteed among group

SEC: 6 (Ala, Ark, Tenn, Mo, Fla, LSU) - SEC champ guaranteed among group

Pac 12: 4 (USC, Colo, Ore, UCLA)

Big E: 3 (Vill, Creig, Conn)

MWC: 3 (SDSt, USU, CSU) - MWC champ guaranteed among group

WCC: 2 (Gonz*, BYU)

American: 2 (Hou, WSU)

MVC: 2 (Loy*, Drake)

One Bid: 20

Highest NET left out: Penn State (42, sub .500 record), St. Louis (45), Duke (49, their AD said they are done, no official word from the Selection Committee), Boise State (50). NET Data courtesy of WarrenNolan.com.

Comments:

There are three conferences left with potential bid stealers or party crashers. Georgetown would steal a bid in the Big East. Oregon State would in the Pac-12.

It gets interesting in the AAC (American). All season Wichita State has functioned as the AAC "auto bid". If they win the tournament of course they will keep the auto bid. If they lose, they will forfeit it and have to be judged as an at large candidate. Currently they are #64 in the NET and the only team in this field with a lower NET ranking is #70 Michigan State and the Spartans have 5 Quad 1 wins (including Illinois, Ohio State, and Michigan) while Wichita State has just 2. One advantage they do is that all of their losses are to Quad 1/2 teams, something three of the First Four teams can't say. However, they have just four Q1/Q2 wins and since Cincinnati is NET #119 they count as Quad 3 so the only way Wichita State can get a fifth Q1/Q2 win is if they win the AAC. Colorado State has three Quad 1/2 wins and no Quad 3/4 losses. Syracuse has seven Quad 1/2 wins and one Quad 3 loss. Louisville has seven Quad 1/2 wins and one Quad 3 loss. Drake has six Quad 1/2 wins and two Quad 3 losses. The other issue is Drake's and Syracuse's NET rankings are way higher. If Wichita State loses today to Cincinnati, there's their Quad 3 loss and they can kiss their season goodbye. Their best scenario would be if they lose the final to Houston and their slot in this field opens up for grabs and isn't stolen by Georgetown or Oregon State although I'd also consider Mississippi (seven Quad 1/2 wins including three Quad 1 wins).

Michigan State has the lowest NET ranking of any at large team but with their top wins I'd be stunned if they don't make the field. Louisville has the next lowest NET ranking and has just one Quad 1 but has six Quad 2 wins. Colorado State has no bad losses but they only have three Quad 1/2 wins which is the fewest of any at large team in this field. Drake has two Quad 3 losses including one to Valparaiso, ranked #228. I can't think of any worse loss for any bubble team (Boise State lost to Fresno State, #193, at home, which counts as a Quad 4 loss, while Valparaiso is a Quad 3 loss).

Expect some changes at the bottom. Ironically one big one would happen if the "#2 seed" Abilene Christian beats top seed Nichols in the Southland as their NET ranking is #83 vs. #180 for Nichols. Here's where an "upset" would cause a lot of teams to move down the S-Curve rather than up.

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