Hello, college basketball fans!
Selection Sunday is tomorrow!
Until then, we can enjoy two days of conference championship action and here is the latest Schmolik 64 update. I'm not sure I will update it before the final one, we'll see.
|7||Loyola Chicago *||22-4|
|15||Cleveland State *||19-7|
|12||UC Santa Barbara||19-4|
|13||UNC Greensboro *||21-8|
|8||San Diego State||21-4|
|14||Morehead State *||21-7|
|16||Oral Roberts *||13-10|
|15||Mount St. Mary's *||12-10|
|B1||Prairie View A&M||16-4|
|16||Appalachian State *||13-11|
Bids By Conference:
Big Ten: 9 (Mich, OSU, Iowa, Ill, Pur, Wisc, Rut, Md, MSU) - Big 10 champ guaranteed among group
ACC: 8 (FSU, Va, Clem, UNC, GaT, VaT, Syr, Lville) - ACC champ guaranteed among group
Big 12: 7 (Bay, Kan, OkSt, WV, Tex, T Tech, Okl) - Big 12 champ guaranteed among group
SEC: 6 (Ala, Ark, Tenn, Mo, Fla, LSU) - SEC champ guaranteed among group
Pac 12: 4 (USC, Colo, Ore, UCLA)
Big E: 3 (Vill, Creig, Conn)
MWC: 3 (SDSt, USU, CSU) - MWC champ guaranteed among group
WCC: 2 (Gonz*, BYU)
American: 2 (Hou, WSU)
MVC: 2 (Loy*, Drake)
One Bid: 20
Highest NET left out: Penn State (42, sub .500 record), St. Louis (45), Duke (49, their AD said they are done, no official word from the Selection Committee), Boise State (50). NET Data courtesy of WarrenNolan.com.
There are three conferences left with potential bid stealers or party crashers. Georgetown would steal a bid in the Big East. Oregon State would in the Pac-12.
It gets interesting in the AAC (American). All season Wichita State has functioned as the AAC "auto bid". If they win the tournament of course they will keep the auto bid. If they lose, they will forfeit it and have to be judged as an at large candidate. Currently they are #64 in the NET and the only team in this field with a lower NET ranking is #70 Michigan State and the Spartans have 5 Quad 1 wins (including Illinois, Ohio State, and Michigan) while Wichita State has just 2. One advantage they do is that all of their losses are to Quad 1/2 teams, something three of the First Four teams can't say. However, they have just four Q1/Q2 wins and since Cincinnati is NET #119 they count as Quad 3 so the only way Wichita State can get a fifth Q1/Q2 win is if they win the AAC. Colorado State has three Quad 1/2 wins and no Quad 3/4 losses. Syracuse has seven Quad 1/2 wins and one Quad 3 loss. Louisville has seven Quad 1/2 wins and one Quad 3 loss. Drake has six Quad 1/2 wins and two Quad 3 losses. The other issue is Drake's and Syracuse's NET rankings are way higher. If Wichita State loses today to Cincinnati, there's their Quad 3 loss and they can kiss their season goodbye. Their best scenario would be if they lose the final to Houston and their slot in this field opens up for grabs and isn't stolen by Georgetown or Oregon State although I'd also consider Mississippi (seven Quad 1/2 wins including three Quad 1 wins).
Michigan State has the lowest NET ranking of any at large team but with their top wins I'd be stunned if they don't make the field. Louisville has the next lowest NET ranking and has just one Quad 1 but has six Quad 2 wins. Colorado State has no bad losses but they only have three Quad 1/2 wins which is the fewest of any at large team in this field. Drake has two Quad 3 losses including one to Valparaiso, ranked #228. I can't think of any worse loss for any bubble team (Boise State lost to Fresno State, #193, at home, which counts as a Quad 4 loss, while Valparaiso is a Quad 3 loss).
Expect some changes at the bottom. Ironically one big one would happen if the "#2 seed" Abilene Christian beats top seed Nichols in the Southland as their NET ranking is #83 vs. #180 for Nichols. Here's where an "upset" would cause a lot of teams to move down the S-Curve rather than up.