Hello, college basketball fans!
Welcome to the President's Day edition of the Schmolik 64! You should expect updates every Friday for the rest of the season. I don't know if I will do every Monday but I will see what I can do. Of course there will be a final one right before the final bracket is unveiled.
| Bracket 1 | ||
| 1 | Gonzaga | 20-0 |
| 16 | ||
| 8 | Arkansas | 16-5 |
| 9 | Maryland | 10-10 |
| 5 | Creighton | 16-5 |
| 12 | UC Santa Barbara | 12-3 |
| 4 | Iowa | 15-6 |
| 13 | Wright State | 17-4 |
| 6 | Rutgers | 12-7 |
| 11 | Utah State | 13-5 |
| 3 | West Virginia | 14-6 |
| 14 | Abilene Christian | 14-3 |
| 7 | LSU | 13-6 |
| 10 | Seton Hall | 12-8 |
| 2 | Virginia | 15-3 |
| 15 | Siena | 8-2 |
| Bracket 2 | ||
| 1 | Baylor | 17-0 |
| 16 | ||
| 8 | Minnesota | 13-8 |
| 9 | North Carolina | 12-7 |
| 5 | Wisconsin | 15-7 |
| 12 | ||
| 4 | Tennessee | 14-5 |
| 13 | Western Kentucky | 15-4 |
| 6 | Florida State | 11-3 |
| 11 | Colorado State | 13-4 |
| 3 | Houston | 16-2 |
| 14 | Liberty | 13-5 |
| 7 | Oklahoma State | 13-6 |
| 10 | UCLA | 14-5 |
| 2 | Illinois | 14-5 |
| 15 | Grand Canyon | 9-3 |
| Bracket 3 | ||
| 1 | Michigan | 14-1 |
| 16 | Bryant | 9-5 |
| 8 | Loyola Chicago | 16-4 |
| 9 | Colorado | 16-6 |
| 5 | Missouri | 13-5 |
| 12 | Colgate | 9-1 |
| 4 | Kansas | 14-7 |
| 13 | Belmont | 21-1 |
| 6 | USC | 17-3 |
| 11 | Boise State | 15-4 |
| 3 | Texas Tech | 14-6 |
| 14 | Toledo | 16-6 |
| 7 | Clemson | 13-5 |
| 10 | Indiana | 11-9 |
| 2 | Villanova | 13-3 |
| 15 | James Madison | 10-5 |
| Bracket 4 | ||
| 1 | Ohio State | 17-4 |
| 16 | Eastern Washington | 9-6 |
| 8 | Florida | 10-5 |
| 9 | San Diego State | 14-4 |
| 5 | Virginia Tech | 14-4 |
| 12 | ||
| 4 | Texas | 13-5 |
| 13 | Winthrop | 18-1 |
| 6 | Purdue | 13-8 |
| 11 | BYU | 14-5 |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 13-5 |
| 14 | UNC Greensboro | 15-6 |
| 7 | Louisville | 11-4 |
| 10 | VCU | 15-4 |
| 2 | Alabama | 17-5 |
| 15 | Vermont | 9-3 |
| First Four | ||
| B1 | Morgan State | 9-5 |
| 16 | South Dakota | 10-9 |
| B2 | Texas State | 14-5 |
| 16 | Prairie View A&M | 7-4 |
| B2 | Connecticut | 9-5 |
| Drake | 18-2 | |
| B4 | Xavier | 11-3 |
| Oregon | 12-4 |
Bids By Conference:
Big 10: 10 (Mich, OSU, Ill, Iowa, Wisc, Rut, Pur, Minn, Md, Ind)
Big 12: 7 (Bay, Tex, Okl, WV, T Tech, Kan, OkSt)
SEC: 6 (Ala, Tenn, Mo, LSU, Fla, Ark)
ACC: 6 (Va, VaT, FSU, Clem, Lville, UNC)
Big E: 5 (Vill, Creig, SH, Conn, Xav)
Pac 12: 4 (USC, Colo, UCLA, Ore)
MWC: 4 (SDSt, BSU, CSU, USU)
WCC: 2 (Gonz, BYU)
MVC: 2 (Loy, Drake)
One Bid: 22
Highest NET left out: St. Louis (32), Penn State (39, sub .500 record), St. Bonaventure (41). NET Data courtesy of WarrenNolan.com.
Comments:
To reflect the NCAA's top 16 seeds last Saturday, I moved Gonzaga back into the overall #1 seed ... for now. I of course have the right to change my mind and probably will with Baylor's next big win or Gonzaga's first loss. Right now Baylor hasn't played since Groundhog Day. The question will be how will they make up the rest of their games and if they don't make all of them up how will it affect their evaluation? The same could be said for fellow #1 seed Michigan. There are plenty of other teams that are missing games and ironically a lot of them are on the high end of the spectrum including Colgate which has played just 10 games and is #11 in the NET.
I still believe Virginia should be a #2 seed over Houston despite the NCAA's bracket preview. Here's some statistics:
Virginia: 15-3, #6 NET, Q1 3-2, Q2 5-1, Q3 4-0
Houston: 16-2, #5 NET, Q1 2-0, Q2 3-1, Q3 9-1
Virginia has more quality wins and they don't have the bad loss that Houston has (at East Carolina). They have one extra loss but they played Gonzaga which shouldn't count as a loss. Does anyone believe if Houston played Gonzaga they wouldn't have lost to them?
The rest of my top 16 seeds did not match the NCAA's exactly because I had additional data. I'm sure the NCAA's bracket would've changed as well. The biggest piece of data was Oklahoma's win at West Virginia. It set up an interesting comparison among the top Big 12 teams: Oklahoma swept West Virginia, West Virginia swept Texas Tech, and Texas Tech swept Oklahoma.
Oregon moved back into the field, replacing Stanford. I decided this time to respect the head to head win. They were helped by another Quad 1 win at Arizona (still counts even though Arizona is not eligible for the NCAA Tournament). They also beat fellow bubble team Seton Hall. Connecticut is back in after their win at Xavier which despite just three losses now finds themselves in the last four teams in because they have home losses to fellow bubble teams Xavier and Seton Hall. They are now fifth in the Big East pecking order. Drake got a split of Loyola to stay in the field. The four Mountain West teams all remain in. I believe Utah State has the weakest resume of the four and as long as they are "leading" the conference they have to be in. Finally, VCU's win allowed them to get the only A-10 bid this week.
UC Santa Barbara and Wright State are new to the bracket after trailing in their conference races. James Madison took back the lead in the Colonial after Northeastern lost. I decided to go with Morgan State in the MEAC even though they have losses because their NET is way higher than NC Central.
Compare my bracket to other brackets across the internet at BracketMatrix.com.
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