Schmolik 64 Update (2/15/21)

Hello, college basketball fans!

Welcome to the President's Day edition of the Schmolik 64! You should expect updates every Friday for the rest of the season. I don't know if I will do every Monday but I will see what I can do. Of course there will be a final one right before the final bracket is unveiled.

Bracket 1
1 Gonzaga 20-0
8 Arkansas 16-5
9 Maryland 10-10
5 Creighton 16-5
12 UC Santa Barbara 12-3
4 Iowa 15-6
13 Wright State 17-4
6 Rutgers 12-7
11 Utah State 13-5
3 West Virginia 14-6
14 Abilene Christian 14-3
7 LSU 13-6
10 Seton Hall 12-8
2 Virginia 15-3
15 Siena 8-2
Bracket 2
1 Baylor 17-0
8 Minnesota 13-8
9 North Carolina 12-7
5 Wisconsin 15-7
4 Tennessee 14-5
13 Western Kentucky 15-4
6 Florida State 11-3
11 Colorado State 13-4
3 Houston 16-2
14 Liberty 13-5
7 Oklahoma State 13-6
10 UCLA 14-5
2 Illinois 14-5
15 Grand Canyon 9-3
Bracket 3
1 Michigan 14-1
16 Bryant 9-5
8 Loyola Chicago 16-4
9 Colorado 16-6
5 Missouri 13-5
12 Colgate 9-1
4 Kansas 14-7
13 Belmont 21-1
6 USC 17-3
11 Boise State 15-4
3 Texas Tech 14-6
14 Toledo 16-6
7 Clemson 13-5
10 Indiana 11-9
2 Villanova 13-3
15 James Madison 10-5
Bracket 4
1 Ohio State 17-4
16 Eastern Washington 9-6
8 Florida 10-5
9 San Diego State 14-4
5 Virginia Tech 14-4
4 Texas 13-5
13 Winthrop 18-1
6 Purdue 13-8
11 BYU 14-5
3 Oklahoma 13-5
14 UNC Greensboro 15-6
7 Louisville 11-4
10 VCU 15-4
2 Alabama 17-5
15 Vermont 9-3
First Four
B1 Morgan State 9-5
16 South Dakota 10-9
B2 Texas State 14-5
16 Prairie View A&M 7-4
B2 Connecticut 9-5
Drake 18-2
B4 Xavier 11-3
Oregon 12-4

Bids By Conference:

Big 10: 10 (Mich, OSU, Ill, Iowa, Wisc, Rut, Pur, Minn, Md, Ind)

Big 12: 7 (Bay, Tex, Okl, WV, T Tech, Kan, OkSt)

SEC: 6 (Ala, Tenn, Mo, LSU, Fla, Ark)

ACC: 6 (Va, VaT, FSU, Clem, Lville, UNC)

Big E: 5 (Vill, Creig, SH, Conn, Xav)

Pac 12: 4 (USC, Colo, UCLA, Ore)


WCC: 2 (Gonz, BYU)

MVC: 2 (Loy, Drake)

One Bid: 22

Highest NET left out: St. Louis (32), Penn State (39, sub .500 record), St. Bonaventure (41). NET Data courtesy of


To reflect the NCAA's top 16 seeds last Saturday, I moved Gonzaga back into the overall #1 seed ... for now. I of course have the right to change my mind and probably will with Baylor's next big win or Gonzaga's first loss. Right now Baylor hasn't played since Groundhog Day. The question will be how will they make up the rest of their games and if they don't make all of them up how will it affect their evaluation? The same could be said for fellow #1 seed Michigan. There are plenty of other teams that are missing games and ironically a lot of them are on the high end of the spectrum including Colgate which has played just 10 games and is #11 in the NET.

I still believe Virginia should be a #2 seed over Houston despite the NCAA's bracket preview. Here's some statistics:

Virginia: 15-3, #6 NET, Q1 3-2, Q2 5-1, Q3 4-0

Houston: 16-2, #5 NET, Q1 2-0, Q2 3-1, Q3 9-1

Virginia has more quality wins and they don't have the bad loss that Houston has (at East Carolina). They have one extra loss but they played Gonzaga which shouldn't count as a loss. Does anyone believe if Houston played Gonzaga they wouldn't have lost to them?

The rest of my top 16 seeds did not match the NCAA's exactly because I had additional data. I'm sure the NCAA's bracket would've changed as well. The biggest piece of data was Oklahoma's win at West Virginia. It set up an interesting comparison among the top Big 12 teams: Oklahoma swept West Virginia, West Virginia swept Texas Tech, and Texas Tech swept Oklahoma.

Oregon moved back into the field, replacing Stanford. I decided this time to respect the head to head win. They were helped by another Quad 1 win at Arizona (still counts even though Arizona is not eligible for the NCAA Tournament). They also beat fellow bubble team Seton Hall. Connecticut is back in after their win at Xavier which despite just three losses now finds themselves in the last four teams in because they have home losses to fellow bubble teams Xavier and Seton Hall. They are now fifth in the Big East pecking order. Drake got a split of Loyola to stay in the field. The four Mountain West teams all remain in. I believe Utah State has the weakest resume of the four and as long as they are "leading" the conference they have to be in. Finally, VCU's win allowed them to get the only A-10 bid this week.

UC Santa Barbara and Wright State are new to the bracket after trailing in their conference races. James Madison took back the lead in the Colonial after Northeastern lost. I decided to go with Morgan State in the MEAC even though they have losses because their NET is way higher than NC Central.

Compare my bracket to other brackets across the internet at