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Bracketology Seed List For Thursday, February 28, 2019

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We have one new at-large entrant in February’s final projection—Clemson

NCAA Basketball: Clemson at Pittsburgh
Clemson enters the field after a Wednesday night win at Pitt.
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Notes:

  • Auto bid holders in this section are noted by the conference names in parentheses.
  • Arrows indicate movement up or down the seed list (down to the spot on the seed list).
  • New entrants are marked with an asterisk.
  • For at-large candidates only, the numbers in parentheses after the team’s name are as follows: record vs. D1 opposition/record in Group 1 and Group 2 games/record in Group 1 games only. While overall records reflect games played through Wednesday, Feb. 27, the other information reflects NET data as of Tuesday, Feb. 26. I pulled the quality win info from WarrenNolan.com’s selection sheets.

No. 1 Seeds

(↑1) Virginia Cavaliers (ACC) (25-2/14/9) - WASHINGTON, D.C. - Columbus 1
(2) Gonzaga Bulldogs (WCC) (27-2/11/4) - ANAHEIM - Salt Lake City 1
(3) Duke Blue Devils (24-4/15/9) - LOUISVILLE - Columbia 1
(4) Kentucky Wildcats (24-4/15/9) - KANSAS CITY - Columbus 2

Virginia’s first game as the No. 1 overall seed was a success, as the Cavaliers routed Georgia Tech, 81-51.

No. 2 Seeds

(5) North Carolina Tar Heels (23-5/13/7) - KANSAS CITY - Columbia 2
(6) Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten) (23-5/14/10) - LOUISVILLE - Des Moines 1
(7) Tennessee Volunteers (24-3/12/6) - WASHINGTON, D.C. - Jacksonville 1
(8) Michigan Wolverines (24-4/15/7) - ANAHEIM - Des Moines 2

Tennessee survived its trip to Ole Miss, 73-71, to pick up another Group 1 win en route to Saturday’s visit from Kentucky.

Michigan State holds the Big Ten auto bid instead of Purdue, due to their superior record against Michigan, based on the Big Ten’s tiebreakers.

No. 3 Seeds

(9) Houston Cougars (American) (27-1/13/4) - ANAHEIM - Tulsa 1
(10) LSU Tigers (SEC) (22-5/15/8) - LOUISVILLE - Tulsa 2
(11) Kansas Jayhawks (21-7/14/10) - KANSAS CITY - Salt Lake City 2
(↑12) Purdue Boilermakers (21-7/14/7) - WASHINGTON, D.C. - Jacksonville 2

Purdue and Marquette swap places. The Golden Eagles could have really used a sweep of Villanova, the only Big East team in the NET top 30 heading into Wednesday, to shore up their credentials for a three seed, but the Wildcats topped them 67-61. As for the Boilermakers, they started slowly and trailed Illinois at halftime, but prevailed comfortably in the end, 73-56.

No. 4 Seeds

(↑13) Texas Tech Red Raiders (23-5/13/5) - LOUISVILLE - San José 1
(↓14) Marquette Golden Eagles (Big East) (23-5/13/8) - WASHINGTON, D.C. - Hartford 1
(15) Virginia Tech Hokies (22-6/10/4) - ANAHEIM - Hartford 2
(16) Florida State Seminoles (22-6/10/5) - KANSAS CITY - San José 2

While Texas Tech needed OT to dispatch an Oklahoma State team they crushed just two weeks earlier in Stillwater, the Red Raiders are now the top No. 4 and tied with Kansas State for the Big 12 lead. Note the Wildcats hold the auto bid today based on the Big 12’s tiebreakers, since they’re 1-0 against Baylor, while the Red Raiders split their meetings with the Bears.

No. 5 Seeds

(↑17) Kansas State Wildcats (Big 12) (21-7/10/6)
(↑18) Wisconsin Badgers (19-9/11/8)
(↑19) Nevada Wolf Pack (MW) (26-2/8/0)
(↑20) Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-7/12/8)

Maryland’s 78-61 loss at Penn State was worse than the margin indicated, but with the 12-16 Nittany Lions’ inflated NET (59th heading into Wednesday), it’s a Group 1 defeat, making the Terps’ record against that level of competition 6-6. Still, the performance wasn’t great, so Mark Turgeon’s team drops to the six line.

Nevada took care of UNLV to set up its showdown with Utah State on Saturday.

No. 6 Seeds

(↓21) Maryland Terrapins (21-8/12/6)
(22) Iowa Hawkeyes (21-7/11/4)
(23) Cincinnati Bearcats (24-4/9/3)
(↑24) Villanova Wildcats (20-8/13/4)

Cincinnati was lucky to pick up another Group 2 win last night, as they only defeated SMU, who lost by 47 to UCF on Sunday, by a 52-49 score.

Villanova moves up a bit after a needed win over Marquette, while Washington, lacking a Group 1 win at least temporarily drops.

No. 7 Seeds

(↓25) Washington Huskies (Pac-12) (22-5/6/0)
(↓26) Iowa State Cyclones (20-8/9/5)
(↓27) Wofford Terriers (SoCon) (21-4/7/3)
(↓28) Buffalo Bulls (MAC) (24-3/6/2)

No. 8 Seeds

(29) Baylor Bears (19-9/11/4)
(↑30) St. John’s Red Storm (20-8/10/6)
(↑31) Mississippi Rebels (19-9/8/4)
(↑32) Auburn Tigers (18-9/11/2)

Baylor and Auburn both survived Wednesday night—the Bears needed OT to complete a comeback against shorthanded Texas in Waco, while the Tigers escaped Georgia with a 78-75 victory. Ole Miss even moved up a spot after a loss to Tennessee. The Rebels’ sweep of Auburn gives them a slight edge over the Tigers.

No. 9 Seeds

(↑33) VCU Rams (A 10) (22-6/5/2)
(↑34) Florida Gators (17-11/8/3)
(35) Syracuse Orange (18-10/8/3)
(36) Ohio State Buckeyes (18-10/8/5)

Florida jumps to the No. 9 line thanks to its fifth straight victory, a surprising 71-55 win at Vanderbilt . The win was Gators’ coach Mike White’s first-ever at Memorial Gym (as a player, assistant, or head coach) and UF’s first victory there since 2014.

No. 10 Seeds

(↓37) Louisville Cardinals (18-11/8/5)
(↓38) Oklahoma Sooners (17-11/10/3)
(↑39) Arizona State Sun Devils (19-8/7/4)
(↑40) N.C. State Wolfpack (20-8/7/1)

Louisville fell at Boston College, 66-59, the Cardinals’ third straight loss and sixth in their last eight. So, Chris Mack’s team has swiftly fallen from a possible protected seed to the thick of the bubble conversation.

No. 11 Seeds

(41) TCU Horned Frogs (18-10/7/2)
(↑42) UCF Knights (20-6/6/0)
(↓43) Texas Longhorns (15-13/8/4)
(44) Alabama Crimson Tide (17-11/10/2)

Texas has a profile that is going to give the Committee fits, particularly with three top 30 wins, but there are just ... so ... many ... losses. March 9th’s season finale at TCU will be a vital game for both, but Kerwin Roach II’s status for the ‘Horns will continue to be a major question mark around their prospects.

No. 12 Seeds

(45) Lipscomb Bisons (ASUN) (20-6/3/2)
(46 - First Four) Seton Hall Pirates (16-11/10/3)
(47 - First Four) Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-11/8/2)
(48) Belmont Bruins (OVC) (22-4/5/2)
(49 - First Four) Utah State Aggies (22-6/3/1)
(*50 - First Four) Clemson Tigers (17-11/4/1)

Clemson knocked Temple out, thanks to the Tigers’ 62-48 win at Pitt. Brad Brownell’s squad will have a major opportunity to solidify their standing when they host North Carolina on Saturday.

First Four Out (NIT No. 1 Seeds)

(↓69) Temple Owls (20-8/7/2)
(70) Saint Mary’s Gaels (19-10/3/1)
(71) Georgetown Hoyas (17-11/7/3)
(72) Memphis Tigers (18-11/4/0)

Next Four Out

(73) Furman Paladins (19-6/4/1)
(74) Dayton Flyers (19-9/2/1)
(75) Liberty Flames (21-6/2/1)
(76) Butler Bulldogs (15-13/7/2)

Other than Temple dropping to the wrong side of the cut line, the first eight out remain the same as on Wednesday morning. Georgetown was the big winner of the night, knocking off DePaul by an 82-73 score in D.C. The Davidson Wildcats were the big bubble losers of the night, as Bob McKillop’s team will now need to win the Atlantic 10 Tournament after a 79-69 loss at La Salle.

No. 13 Seeds

(51) New Mexico State Aggies (WAC)
(52) Yale Bulldogs (Ivy)
(53) Old Dominion Monarchs (C-USA)
(54) Vermont Catamounts (America East)

No. 14 Seeds

(55) Hofstra Pride (CAA)
(56) South Dakota State Jackrabbits (Summit)
(57) UC Irvine Anteaters (Big West)
(58) Radford Highlanders (Big South)

No. 15 Seeds

(59) Montana Grizzlies (Big Sky)
(60) Texas State Bobcats (Sun Belt)
(*61) Loyola Chicago Ramblers (MVC)
(62) Wright State Raiders (Horizon)

The Ramblers, who swept fellow MVC co-leader Drake, move into the Valley’s auto bid spot following a win at Northern Iowa and Missouri State‘s loss at Illinois State.

No. 16 Seeds

(*63) Colgate Raiders (Patriot)
(64) Sam Houston State Bearkats (Southland)
(65 - First Four) Prairie View A&M Panthers (SWAC)
(66 - First Four) Norfolk State Spartans (MEAC)
(67 - First Four) St. Francis (Pa.) Red Flash (NEC)
(68 - First Four) Iona Gaels (MAAC)

Colgate enters the field as the Patriot league auto bid, though the Raiders are tied with Bucknell and Lehigh for first with one regular-season game left.

Conference Ranking With Seeds

Note: Auto bid holders are denoted by asterisks.

ACC (9): 1. Virginia*, 1. Duke, 2. North Carolina, 4. Virginia Tech, 4. Florida State, 9. Syracuse, 10. Louisville, 10. N.C. State, 12. Clemson (First Four)
Big 12 (8): 3. Kansas, 4. Texas Tech, 5. Kansas State*, 7. Iowa State, 8. Baylor, 10. Oklahoma, 11. TCU, 11. Texas
Big Ten (8): 2. Michigan State*, 2. Michigan, 4. Purdue, 5. Wisconsin, 6. Maryland, 6. Iowa, 9. Ohio State, 12. Minnesota (First Four)
SEC (8): 1. Kentucky, 2. Tennessee, 3. LSU*, 5. Mississippi State, 8. Mississippi, 8. Auburn, 9. Florida, 11. Alabama
Big East (4): 3. Marquette*, 6. Villanova, 8. St. John’s, 12. Seton Hall (First Four)
American Athletic (3): 3. Houston*, 6. Cincinnati, 11. UCF
MW (2): 5. Nevada*, 12. Utah State (First Four)
Pac-12 (2): 7. Washington*, 10. Arizona State

Auto Bid Selection Procedures

Now that we are less than three weeks away from Selection Sunday, I’m using each conference’s tiebreaker procedures to determine auto bid holders when necessary.

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