For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2019-20 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

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This series’ mid-major post begins with a look at the top 25 non-conference schedules in the country, based on this series’ metrics anyway. While a little more than half of the teams in the table above enter this season with at least a theoretical shot at earning an at-large if things go right, the other 11 don’t. And those teams built their difficult schedules to better prepare themselves for conference play or help fund their athletic department’s budget by collecting game checks—or both. So, it didn’t make much sense given the limited time I have available to break down Texas Southern‘s or Alabama State‘s or Houston Baptist‘s schedule, even in a mid-major-focused post.

So how did I determine which teams to include here?

Well, I simply took a look at KenPom’s top 100 for the season. I then identified the mid-majors within that group, which totaled 22. At that point, I took that list and compared it with the average schedule rankings. Just 15 of those 22 top-100 teams had non-conference schedules that ranked in the top half (so top 177) nationally. And those were the ones that made the cut. As you’ll see below, even that combination will be no guarantee that a team earns at-large consideration as the season goes on.

However, considering Belmont earned an at-large last March, Wofford would have, and Lipscomb, UNCG, and Furman all earned serious consideration out of nowhere, don’t dismiss the possibility of further surprises this year.

Teams are listed in order of their Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking.

11. Davidson Wildcats

The Wildcats’ quest for a second consecutive Atlantic 10 Tournament title ended with a thud in the semifinals against eventual champ Saint Louis. Even though Bob McKillop’s team went 24-9, the Selection Committee passed them over for an at-large because of a non-conference schedule that didn’t end up impressing them. Even though this schedule ranks highly, the danger of a repeat lurks, thanks to several games against teams heading into the new season with significant question marks (Nevada, Northeastern, Loyola Chicago, Vanderbilt) along with a game in Charlotte against a Wake Forest club that is likely to underperform its four-year ranking. With past performance not being indicative of future results across the board, Davidson might need to create an opening weekend stir by stunning an Auburn team that should contend in the SEC and perform strongly in the Orlando Invitational to earn the at-large consideration that went missing last March.

27. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

The Hilltoppers are one of many teams that struggled to fill their non-conference slates this season, falling two games short of the maximum possible for a Conference USA team. Rick Stansbury even took the step of scheduling a December exhibition game to help fill the void. Honestly, Western Kentucky’s struggles aren’t surprising considering expectations will again be high following a 20-win season that ended in the conference tournament final. Note that last season’s WKU team defeated both Saint Mary’s and Wisconsin in Bowling Green and Arkansas on the road. However, some bad losses really took the air out of the Toppers’ at-large hopes. This time around, the Razorbacks visit Diddle Arena, as does Belmont, another 2019 NCAA team. But Thanksgiving week will be the portion of the early season that’s most crucial to WKU’s plans. For starters, the Hilltoppers will hope to meet both Cincinnati and Nevada in the Paradise Jam, then they’ll take on Louisville in Nashville upon their return to the mainland.

28. Nevada Wolf Pack

Steve Alford’s first Wolf Pack team is among the possibilities for Western Kentucky in the Paradise Jam, though you can bet Nevada would prefer to meet Cincinnati from the Hilltoppers’ side of the bracket. Regardless of whom the Pack end up meeting on day three in St. Thomas, this is a slate that should put the Wolf Pack in the thick of the national conversation once again. Not only will they host two Pac-12 teams, Utah and USC, before the trip to the Caribbean, they’ll also travel to Davidson beforehand for a BracketBusters-like matchup. And the challenges don’t stop in December, as two of the three best teams in the WCC, BYU and Saint Mary’s, feature, with both games taking place in what should be somewhat hostile environments. Plus, the Texas Southern team that visits on December 18th defeated Baylor, Oregon, and Texas A&M last year.

37. BYU Cougars

With Dave Rose’s retirement, former Utah Valley head coach Mark Pope made the short move from Orem to Provo. His first challenge will be to get the Cougars back to the NCAAs for the first time since 2015, and this non-conference schedule certainly seems to have such a goal in mind. Not only will BYU travel to the Maui Invitational, where an intriguing quarterfinal against UCLA awaits, but several other postseason hopefuls dot the slate. Former Mountain West rival San Diego State anchors an early homestand, while the Cougars travel to both Houston and Boise State before heading to Hawai’i. Upon their return from Lahaina, Pope will have to prepare for a quartet of traditional rivals—Utah, UNLV, Nevada, and Utah State—all of whom will hope to challenge for an at-large themselves.

52. Vermont Catamounts

Sure, the Catamounts aren’t likely to earn at-large bid, but stranger things have happened. Regardless, this schedule is clearly designed to get Vermont into a slightly better seed than the 13 that John Becker’s last two NCAA qualifiers earned. The Catamounts not only visit defending National Champion Virginia and St. John’s (watch for a possible upset in Queens) for the Hall of Fame Tip-Off, but they will play back-to-back road games against Ivy champ Yale and a strong Cincinnati team afterward. Plus, there are a variety of mid-major luminaries present on this slate, with the Catamounts starting the season with consecutive road games against St. Bonaventure and Bucknell, and UNCG and Lipscomb, a pair of 2019 NIT squads travel to Burlington in December.

56. Belmont Bruins

After earning a surprise NCAA at-large bid and grabbing a first-ever Division I Tournament win, Rick Byrd rode off into the sunset last spring. His replacement, former Lipscomb coach and Belmont alum Casey Alexander, certainly didn’t shy away from non-conference challenges while at the other end of Belmont Boulevard. And even though there’s just one game on this schedule against a team in the four-year ranking’s top 100, that tradition continues. There are many teams on Alexander’s first Bruin slate (Boston College, the aforementioned Bisons, 2019 A 10 Tournament champion Saint Louis, WKU) that could meet or exceed Alabama’s performance this season. While an OVC Tournament title is once again Belmont’s most likely ticket to the field of 68, last year illustrated that anything is possible with strong performances and quality scheduling. If things break right here, a second surprise at-large in as many seasons might just happen.

58. Saint Mary’s Gaels

Last season, Randy Bennett took many years’ worth of criticism to heart and beefed up the Gaels’ non-conference slate. The improvement didn’t really help Saint Mary’s at-large case, as they ended up needing to win the WCC Tournament to make this field, something the Gaels managed to accomplish. So, Bennett again attempted to turn up the quality of his team’s November and December slate. While the home schedule is unimpressive outside of a visit from Mountain West Tournament champ Utah State, and the lone road contest should be a win against a bad California team, there are plenty of neutral-site win opportunities that could boost the Selection Committee’s perception of the Gaels. The biggest of these five contests comes on Opening Night, as Saint Mary’s travels to Sioux Falls to take on Wisconsin. Later in November, the Gaels meet Fresno State in Sacramento in what was supposed to be the showcase game of the pair’s exempt event (which didn’t fill up as anticipated). December brings a pair of games in Phoenix, one against Dayton and the other a semi-road contest against Arizona State. Three days after that showcase, Bennett’s squad welcomes Nevada to the new Chase Center for a semi-home game. Those five contests should boost the Gaels’ tournament profile a bit while preparing them to challenge Gonzaga for the WCC title.

69. VCU Rams

Mike Rhoades got the Rams back to the NCAA Tournament in his second season, with an Atlantic 10 regular season title and non-conference wins over Temple and Texas helping to push VCU over the cut line. While Shaka Smart’s Longhorns don’t appear on this slate, Rhoades’ immediate predecessor, Will Wade, brings LSU to Richmond on November 13th, which should be must-see TV. Later in the month, the Rams will have the chance to defeat two other 2019 NCAA qualifiers at the Emerald Coast Classic, an exempt tournament that packs a surprising amount of punch for its size. And while a quartet of sub-200 games weigh this schedule down a bit, four December contests against Old Dominion, Missouri State, College of Charleston, and old BracketBuster rival Wichita State could all provide more value than anticipated when March 2020 arrives.

84. Gonzaga Bulldogs

Mark Few’s Bulldogs will have to retool a bit following a season that ended with 33 wins and some Elite Eight disappointment. Not surprisingly, the Zags’ home slate is a little underwhelming, outside of a marquee December matchup with North Carolina, with five winnable home games before Gonzaga travels to the Bahamas. However, there is a mid-November road game against Buzz Williams’ new Texas A&M club to break that homestand up. The Bulldogs will hope to meet UNC twice, with the first meeting taking place on Black Friday at the Atlantis Resort, provided Gonzaga gets past both Southern Miss. and either Oregon or Seton Hall in the semifinals. Even if the pair don’t meet in the Bahamas, the Bulldogs can’t focus too much on their guaranteed meeting with the Heels, as they have to play at both Washington and Arizona immediately beforehand.

88. Rhode Island Rams

In his first season in charge in Kingston, David Cox’s Rams were eliminated by St. Bonaventure in the Atlantic 10 semifinals, a defeat that extinguished all postseason hopes for an 18-15 team. While Rhode Island’s first non-conference schedule under Cox was decent, the second is quite impressive. Even with five sub-200 teams on this slate, there will still be plenty of opportunities for the Rams to put themselves back on the national radar this fall. That’s thanks to a pair of power conference home games (Alabama and Providence); four road games, highlighted by trips to Maryland and West Virginia; and a game against LSU in Montego Bay. It’s too bad that the organizers of the Jamaica Classic didn’t pair Rhody up with Utah State too.

102. Richmond Spiders

Yes, Chris Mooney still coaches the Spiders, even after a 13-20 campaign that marked the eighth since UR last appeared in the NCAAs, 2011’s Sweet Sixteen season. Richmond is forecast to be back in the postseason frame this time around, and this schedule should give the Spiders plenty of opportunities to pick up a marquee win or two, even with the presence of five sub-200 opponents. Two power conference teams, Vanderbilt and Boston College will visit the Robins Center, while Richmond travels to Alabama to close out non-conference play. However, the most important chances for the Spiders to spin up quality wins will come in Brooklyn, where Richmond opens with Wisconsin in the Legends Classic semifinals. With an upset win over the Badgers, Mooney’s club would earn some national buzz and a championship showdown with Auburn.

105. Utah State Aggies

Craig Smith’s Aggies will look to build upon an impressive 2018-19 season that saw them share the Mountain West regular-season crown with Nevada and win the conference tournament title. This fall, Utah State will face a rather unique schedule in that they’ll play all of their non-league home games in a two-week span before playing five neutral-site contests and a true road game against Saint Mary’s. Note, however, that the Mountain West will play a pair of conference games in December since the conference tournament will be a week earlier than normal this season. That means the Aggies will play one home game during the final month of the calendar year. The neutral-site contests are all over the map rankings wise, with the two SEC matchups appearing to be the best by far. But Utah State’s Beehive Classic opponent, BYU, has NCAA aspirations too, as might both North Texas and a South Florida squad that should finish far higher than 214th in the country. It’s just too bad Smith’s squad doesn’t get to play Rhode Island in the Jamaica event.

130. Harvard Crimson

With the last two Ivy NCAA representatives, Penn and Yale, expected to challenge the Crimson for the title in 2019-20, there’s some optimism that the dream of a #2BidIvy could become reality this March. Unfortunately, it may be up to the Quakers and Bulldogs to earn that surprise at-large, as there’s not much on Harvard’s schedule that will make the Selection Committee pay attention. Meanwhile, Penn has the Big 5 to go with the Wooden Legacy, while Yale has four power conference road games on its slate. Tommy Amaker’s club will basically have to win the Orlando Invitational and hope for the best to secure a bid provided they don’t win Ivy Madness. For the record, that event will be on the Crimson’s home floor this Selection weekend.

154. Dayton Flyers

Anthony Grant got the Flyers into the NIT in his second season, and while he hopes to get Dayton back to the NCAAs for the first time since 2017, this schedule might not help all that much. That’s because, like so many other teams in this post, Dayton struggled to get decent home games, as every single opponent ranks worse than 150th in the four-year ranking. That means the Flyers will need to do well in their five neutral-site games. While the Maui Invitational field looks loaded, only Michigan State and Kansas look like surefire top-tier win opportunities. It’s a good thing Grant’s squad plays both Saint Mary’s and the Colorado team that knocked it out of the NIT too, but the Flyers might need wins in both of those contests as they head into A 10 play.

155. Buffalo Bulls

After racking up 59 wins, including a pair of NCAA Tournament victories, Nate Oats departed Western New York for Alabama this offseason, so it’s up to Jim Whitesell, last seen at Loyola Chicago in 2011, to keep things rolling for the Bulls. While Buffalo would have undoubtedly earned an at-large had it not won the MAC’s auto bid, this year’s squad will have an uphill climb due to this schedule. Vanderbilt and DePaul don’t quite compare to the Syracuse, Marquette, and West Virginia squads the Bulls played on the road last year (even if the Mountaineers were down). So, Buffalo’s best chances at earning quality wins will come in the Charleston Classic, where Whitesell’s club will open with UConn. Win that and maybe matchups with Xavier and Florida will follow. A Naismith Classic matchup with Harvard in Toronto could also be significant for both participants.

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