FanPost

Discussing the Bracket Matrix (2/19/18)

Hello, college basketball fans!

Less than three weeks remain until Selection Sunday.

As you know, I am not the only one who makes brackets before the final bracket is released. The site Bracket Matrix has been active now for many years and has been keeping track of brackets. Last year, 174 brackets were posted to the site including mine and many popular sites including CBS Sports, ESPN, FOX Sports, USA Today, SB Nation, and the host of Bracket Matrix himself.

So this is an update of the brackets so far as of today (2/19/18). The bracket listed are as of either today or yesterday. At the time of this update there were 107 brackets surveyed.

I had moved North Carolina up a #1 seed in my latest bracket and had defended my choice in my FanPost. However most brackets did not agree. They are an average seed of 2.43. I wasn't the only bracket to have North Carolina a #1 seed, there were four others (five total). Virginia and Villanova were unanimous #1 seeds. Xavier was not a unanimous #1 seed but had an average seed of 1.11. One bracket had the Musketeers a #3 seed!

As for the final #1 seed? Kansas was the overwhelming choice, with an average seed of 1.27. I gave Kansas a #3 seed, the only bracket to give them a #3 but two brackets had the Jayhawks a #4 seed! I mentioned Kansas was overrated in my FanPost. USA Today's and SBNation's bracketology pages quote Warren Nolan's RPI page and they list the new "RPI Groups". The top group is home games vs. the RPI top 30, neutral games vs. the RPI top 50, and road games vs. the RPI top 75.

If you compare North Carolina and Kansas head to head, they have the same number of Group 1 wins, nine apiece. Kansas does have more Group 2 wins but if you look at what Group 2 wins are "Home (31-75), Neutral (51-100),
Away (76-135)", that doesn't look that impressive. North Carolina beat Duke (RPI #4) and Clemson (#10). Kansas's best RPI win is Kentucky (#18). Even if you insist on Kansas ahead of Carolina, for sure the Tar Heels should be ahead of Duke, who North Carolina beat. Duke only has THREE Group 1 wins. In fact, Duke has only ten Group 1+2 wins, one fewer than the number of Group 1 wins. Duke leads the consensus Bracket Matrix #2 seeds with an average seed of 1.99. Nine brackets with the Blue Devils as a #1 seed. Auburn was next with an average seed of 2.18. One bracket had Auburn a #1 seed. Michigan State had an average seed of 2.25 and was a #1 on 14 brackets. Purdue was the last Bracket Matrix consensus #2 seed with an average seed of 2.28. Two brackets had Purdue a #1 but one bracket had them a #4.

The Bracket Matrix #3's were led by North Carolina (2.43), 4 #1 seeds. Next up was Texas Tech, 2.75, the highest ranked team to not be chosen as a #1 seed on any of the 77 brackets. Cincinnati, 2.98, was chosen a #1 seed on one bracket but that was a bracket from Sunday before the Bearcats lost at home to Wichita State. I would guess they would not be a #1 on their bracket now but their bracket was not updated at the time of this post. The last #3 seed was Clemson (3.48). While I disagreed a lot with the order of the top 3 seeds, I did have all 12 of these teams as my top 12. While I had North Carolina a #1 and Kansas a #3 instead of the other way around, I had them in the same regional so the regionals would still be balanced.

I had a feeling Wichita State would get a boost after their win at Cincinnati. I moved them to a top 4 seed. Most of the Bracket Matrix brackets agreed. Arizona leads the #4 seeds (3.81), followed by Tennessee (3.93), Wichita State (4.35), and West Virginia (4.58) barely over Ohio State (4.60). I had Gonzaga instead of either West Virginia or Ohio State.

Teams which made the Bracket Matrix but weren't chosen by 90 or more brackets: Baylor (89), Kansas State (88), St. Bonaventure (80), UCLA (72), Syracuse (70). I did not have Kansas State and didn't have Florida even though Florida was listed on 105 of 107 brackets (another bracket didn't have them!) Florida's RPI (CBS Sports RPI) fell all the way to 63. If you only count their top games they are great. But they lost a lot of games they should have won like the game at Vanderbilt last Saturday. But that's why you have an overall RPI and theirs stinks.

Teams that just missed: Louisville (55), USC (40), Washington (37), LSU (12). I had Washington. I also had Temple. Only four brackets had the Owls. They were literally the last team I had in. If you go by RPI, the only team with a higher RPI I had out was USC. Temple has beaten Auburn (#8), Clemson (#10), and Wichita State (#16). USC has one top 25 win, Middle Tennessee (#23). Florida's best win was Cincinnati (#12). I will say Temple could be in trouble as Auburn lost one of their best players for the season. If Auburn goes down, there goes one of Auburn's best wins.

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