For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

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Ranking The Teams

If you’re the Southland’s automatic qualifier to the NCAA Tournament and your name isn’t Stephen F. Austin, there’s a good chance you’ll end up seeded 15th or 16th. The only exceptions in the past 10 seasons? Sam Houston State in 2010 and Northwestern State in 2013. The reason for this is simple—the Lumberjacks are the only league member ranking in the top 200 of the four-year rankings—and SFA fell out of the top 100 in the past season. And every other team ranks 200th or worse, which puts 12 league members solidly in the bottom half of Division I.

In other words, when just three conferences rank below yours out of 32, the odds of landing on seed lines 15 or 16 are almost a given unless a special team wins the auto bid.

KenPom projects that the overwhelming majority of the Southland’s 13 teams will underperform their four-year rankings, including the last two NCAA reps, Stephen F. Austin and New Orleans, and last seasons co-champs, Nicholls State and Southeastern Louisiana. Of the four teams projected to outperform their recent histories, three are outside of the four-year table’s top 300.

Ranking The Schedules

Once again, the Southland ranks highly in the non-conference scheduling department, thanks in no small part to the conference’s reliance on road games. Seven Southland clubs have schedule rankings within the top 100 in at least one category, while just three teams rank outside the top 200 in at least two categories. Just think how high these rankings would be if the league didn’t play so many non-D1 contests.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

But with so many Southland teams ranked outside of the top 200 while simultaneous boasting strong, road-heavy schedules, it’s no surprise that there are some significant scheduling gaps in the conference. Sam Houston State was the only league member to under-schedule this season, with everyone else over-scheduling—with no fewer than five teams owning schedules that rank 200 or places higher than their four-year rankings.

As usual, non-Division I opposition dominates Southland home schedules—accounting for nearly two-thirds of league home games. This season, the number of non-D1 foes even outpaces the number of power conference road games.

But it’s not all bad. Not only is the Southland collectively playing six more home games than it did in 2017-18, it’s doing so while playing the same number of non-D1 games as it did a season ago. However, the number of Power 7 road games also rose by three when compared to last year.

How comprehensively do non-D1 opponents dominate Southland schedules? Conference members have more non-D1 games scheduled than they do against the top four Division I conferences on this list combined. And all of those leagues cover territories that either overlap or are contiguous with the Southland’s. Three Eastern mid-major conferences, on the other hand, are completely missing from conference slates this season.

Texas Tech of the Big 12, Louisiana Tech from C-USA, non-D1 Arlington Baptist, and WAC’s UTRGV will each play a quartet of games against Southland opponents, with the Vaqueros playing a home-and-home series with South Texas rivals Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.

Naturally, non-D1 opponents dominate individual Southland schedules. Relative D1 newcomer Incarnate Word has five such opponents on its schedule, while Abilene Christian, Lamar, McNeese State, Nicholls State, SFA, and Texas A&M Corpus Christi all lined up four non-D1 contests. In terms of Division I conferences, Lamar will play three American Athletic squads, all on the road naturally.

A trio of home games against Louisiana and SFA’s visit Alabama from are the only ones Southland squads will have against teams in the top 100 of the rankings. On the flip side, conference members will play 38 such road games! A whopping 63 Southland home games will feature either Division I team ranked outside of the top 200 or a non-D1 opponent.

These factors weigh down Southland non-conference schedules, which by and large ruin team metrics heading into league play. And with several conferences seeking to restrict the number of non-conference games members play against poorly-ranked teams, the vicious cycle the Southland is engulfed in looks set to continue.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net

17. Houston Baptist Huskies

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Arlington Baptist, Dallas Christian, Texas State) and 1 loss (@UTSA)

Ron Cottrell’s Huskies saw their win total drop by an astounding 11 in 2017-18, with four of those victories coming in non-conference play. Unfortunately for HBU, they defeated just Division I non-conference opponent—Texas State. While the Huskies are skipping an exempt tournament this season, they’ll play a quartet of difficult Power 7 road games and welcome Fordham out of the Atlantic 10 to Sharp Gym.

33. Central Arkansas Bears

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (University of the Ozarks, Little Rock) and 1 loss (@Little Rock)

Russ Pennell is building something in Conway, as the Bears recorded a 10-win improvement from 2017 to 2018. But with nine true road games—five against Power 7 foes—on the 2018-19 non-conference slate, UCA will be hard-pressed to equal last season’s 6-7 start.

68. Northwestern State Demons

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@ULM, Louisiana College (N)) and 2 losses (@SMU, Rice)

Since 2014-15’s 19-win campaign, the Demons have won just 25 games total, including four a season ago. Just two of those victories came against Division I opposition, with just one—over ULM—coming in non-conference play. So there will definitely be pressure on Mike McConathy as the 2018-19 season tips off. As is a theme in this conference, this isn’t a schedule built to encourage early positive results, as trips to BYU, Houston, SMU, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech all appear on a rather daunting seven-game road slate.

69. New Orleans Privateers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Spring Hill and Williams Baptist) and 3 losses (@South Alabama, @Louisiana, @UAB)

The Privateers followed up their 2017 NCAA berth with a 16-17 season that ended in the CBI’s quarterfinals. Mark Slessinger’s team is another that will forego an exempt event this season. That decision and the presence of four non-D1 opponents on this slate mean New Orleans should better last season’s 3-8 non-league mark—even if games at Baylor, Northwestern, Pittsburgh, and Tulsa are also present.

73. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (St. Edward’s, ULM, @Louisiana Tech, Arlington Baptist)

Kyle Keller’s second Lumberjack team recorded a 10-win improvement over his first, thanks in no small part to a red hot 11-2 start that included a win at LSU. The 2018-19 non-conference slate—a considerably tougher one thanks to road games against Baylor and Miami, a surprise visit from Alabama, and a trip to Northern Ireland that could feature a second day meeting with MAC favorite Buffalo—probably won’t result in 11 wins, but it should prepare SFA for Southland contention and March success.

85. McNeese State Cowboys

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 0 wins and 2 losses (@Louisiana, @N.C. Central)

The Cowboys, 12-17 in Dave Simmons’ final season, welcome a new head coach in Heath Schroyer for the 2018-19 campaign. And that’s not the only change in Lake Charles this season, as the H&HP Complex replaces venerable Burton Coliseum as McNeese’s home. To celebrate, the Cowboys will play six home games, though only a visit from Louisiana and half of a home-and-home with N.C. Central will feature Division I opposition. Two of the non-D1 visitors will complete McNeese’s participation in the MGM Resorts Main Event, as they won’t be traveling to Las Vegas after visiting Saint Mary’s and Arizona State to open the season.

102. Nicholls State Colonels

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Spring Hill, Mobile) and 1 loss (Idaho)

After posting a 21-win season in his second season in Thibodaux, South Alabama hired Richie Riley away from Nicholls State. His replacement, Austin Claunch, should be able to keep the Colonels competitive in the Southland. However, thanks to a quartet of home non-D1 games and trips to Baylor, Louisville, Ole Miss, and a potentially tricky visitors’ bracket at the Emerald Coast Classic, Nicholls may not boast a decent record when league play begins.

171. Southeastern Louisiana Lions

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Mississippi Valley State (N)) and 3 losses (@Tulane, Grambling State, @Louisiana)

Jay Ladner’s Lions won the Southland regular season title last season, but finished with consecutive losses to Stephen F. Austin (in the conference final) and Saint Mary’s (in the NIT first round), so there’s some unfinished business in Hammond. SELA managed to post 22 wins despite putting up a 6-7 mark in November and December. That total was highlighted by a trio of wins in the Savannah Invitational, but this season’s exempt event—the Hall of Fame Classic—might not be as kind, thanks to road games against Nebraska and Texas Tech. A trip to LSU to open the season and December matchup with Ole Miss in Jackson are other potential opportunities for the Lions to make national noise.

179. Lamar Cardinals

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Howard Payne) and 1 loss (Cal State Bakersfield)

Tic Price’s Cardinals won 19 for the second season in a row—a total they couldn’t build upon thanks to a first round loss in the CollegeInsider.com Tournament. A half-dozen winnable home games and participation in Georgia Tech‘s weak round-robin event means Lamar should be able to get off to a strong start for a third season in a row. However, they’ll probably want to avoid a repeat of last December’s four-game skid before league play.

187. Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (TAMU-CC) 2 wins (Our Lady of the Lake, St. Mary’s (Texas) and 4 losses (UTRGV, @UTSA, @Texas State, @UTRGV)

In 2017-18, the Islanders lost more than they won for the first time since 2012-13. It didn’t help that Willis Wilson’s squad didn’t get off to a good start, as Corpus Christi won just three games in November and December—with none of those victories coming against D1 opposition. While four non-D1 games mean the Islanders should be able to better last season’s non-conference win total, the annual home-and-home with UTRGV might be their best shot at picking up a Division I victory before Southland play begins.

204. Incarnate Word Cardinals

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Trinity, Texas Lutheran)

The Cardinals won just seven games—five in non-league play—and suffered through a 17-game losing streak in their first official Division I season. So, Ken Burmeister was relieved of his duties, replaced by former Purdue player Carson Cunningham. With four non-D1 home games on the schedule, Incarnate Word could threaten its non-league win total of a season ago. However, with trips to LSU and Texas Tech on the slate, along with a likely trip to the consolation bracket in the Bahamas thanks to a quarterfinal against Big Sky champ Montana, don’t expect much more out of the Cardinals this fall.

214. Sam Houston State Bearkats

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (SHSU) 1 win (Little Rock) and 2 losses (Central Michigan (N), Utah Valley)

The Bearcats won 20 for the second consecutive season and fourth time in the last five seasons, so Jason Hooten’s squad must once again be listed among those that can threaten SFA for the conference crown. Even though SHSU will visit both Clemson and Georgia as part of their participation in the Cayman Islands Classic mainland bracket, this schedule isn’t quite as scary as many of the others featured on this post. Note that the potential meeting with East Tennessee State in Johnson City in the mainland bracket final could be one of the more intriguing mid-major matchups of the entire season.

287. Abilene Christian Wildcats

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (Howard Payne, @Campbell, Schreiner, Arlington Baptist) and 2 losses (@Arkansas State, @Texas Tech)

The Wildcats recorded a 16-16 record and earned a CollegeInsider.com Tournament bid in their first full Division I season. Joe Golding’s squad again has a shot at a winning non-conference record, as a trip to Pacific‘s round-robin tournament and spot opposing Texas Tech in the Red Raiders’ throwback home game are the highlights of a slate that features a quartet of non-D1 home games.

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