For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

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Ranking The Teams

While the Big West’s NCAA seeding over the past 10 seasons has varied from the 12 Long Beach State earned in 2012 to a pair of Opening Round appearances, fully half of the conference’s auto bid winners have earned 15 seeds in that span, including last season’s—Cal State Fullerton. 2016’s Hawai’i squad, the second of consecutive 13 seeds the league earned, was the last Big West team to earn a Round of 64 victory, taking down California.

Even though five Big West teams rank in the top 200 of the four-year rankings this time around, compared to three a season ago, UC Irvine dropped out of the top 100 and Hawai’i out of the top 150. And with those declines, it’s likely 2019’s champ will once again earn a 15 seed.

But KenPom’s preseason projections offer some hope. as both 2018 champ Cal State Fullerton and league power UC Irvine are forecast to exceed their four-year rankings. KenPom projects UC Irvine to be a top 100, with Fullerton clearly in the top 150. With every other team in the conference forecast to slip a bit, an Anteater or Titan auto bid looks like the best way to pick up a higher seed—while looking ahead in November, at least.

Ranking The Schedules

Last season, Big West schedules were respectable on average, with the conference ranking in the top half of Division I across the board, thanks in no small part to Long Beach State’s top 15 slate and three other teams in the top 100. But in 2018-19, the 49ers schedule isn’t even in the top 100, with Cal State Fullerton and UC Davis in the second 50 nationally. And with every other team in the league situated in the bottom half of D1, it’s not surprising that the Big West ranks in the mid-20s in each category this season.

Note: The number of asterisks (*) represent the number of pending games on a team’s schedule.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

The Big West is another conference with a fairly even split of over-schedulers (five) and those who aimed a bit lower than their four-year rankings (four). Not surprisingly, the three best schedules in the league all belong to teams that overdid it to an extent, though Cal State Fullerton’s 160-place gap between their slate and four-year record might end up being a bit much for the Titans.

Big West members will play three more true home games when compared to a season ago, even if the number of home contests against Power 7 teams declined by two. While Long Beach State will definitely host Oregon State, Hawai’i could host both Colorado and TCU if things break right in the Diamond Head Classic over Christmas week. There were only slight changes in the number of D1 home games (a drop of one) and Power 7 road games (an increase of one) when compared to last season.

Not surprisingly, Western leagues dominate Big West schedules with no conference centered away from the Mountain and Pacific time zones accounting for more than five games in total. For the second straight season, nine conferences don’t have a single scheduled contest against Big West opposition, but seven of these could encounter a league squad in the later rounds of an exempt tournament.

Big West teams are playing six more games against WCC opponents than a season ago with many of those games likely scheduled against WAC squads last year—as that conference’s total dropped from nine games in 2017-18 to five this time around.

Big Sky squad Sacramento State will play five Big West opponents in 2018-19, while a trio of WCC squads—Loyola Marymount, Portland, former league member Pacific—will play four conference squads apiece. On the flip side, three Big West teams scheduled five games against opponents from a single conference: Long Beach State (Pac-12), Cal State Northridge (WCC), and UC Santa Barbara (Big Sky). Cal State Fullerton also managed to line up four WCC contests.

While Hawai’i could play a pair of top 100 teams in the later rounds of the Diamond Head Classic, as it stands now, no Big West team is guaranteed to host such a team during the non-conference—based on the four-year ratings anyway. However, 24 such opportunities will be available in true road games, with a smattering of possibilities—12 in fact—possible in exempt tournaments, though the Rainbow Warriors’ Wooden Legacy opener with Utah is the only such game that’s guaranteed.

An overwhelming majority of Big West home games—44 of 56—are scheduled to feature either a Quad 4 opponent or non-D1 squad.

With Hawai’i a conference member, each team is eligible to play an additional game due to the NCAA’s Hawai’i exemption—meaning the maximum Big West schedule is 32 games. Just four teams—Cal State Northridge, Long Beach State, UC Irvine, and UC Riverside—took advantage of this rule this season.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

65. Cal State Fullerton Titans

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (CSUF) 4 wins (Sacramento State, Cal Lutheran, @Portland, @Loyola Marymount) and 1 loss (@Saint Mary’s)

The Titans won 20 games a season ago, though they needed to win the Big West’s auto bid to hit that total. The highlight of last season’s non-conference campaign was either a win at Utah Valley or one over Harvard in the fifth-place game of the Wooden Legacy, played on Fullerton’s home floor. This time around, Dedrique Taylor’s squad travels across the country—to Conway, S.C.—for its exempt tournament, where they’ll face American Athletic title contender UCF in the Myrtle Beach Invitational quarterfinals. And the Knights aren’t the only at-large threat Fullerton will face as part of a daunting November and December slate—thanks to road trips to Arizona State, Nebraska, Saint Mary’s, and Washington.

75. UC Davis Aggies

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Sacramento State (N), William Jessup, Holy Names) and 1 loss (@San Francisco)

While Jim Les couldn’t get the Aggies to a second straight NCAA Tournament, they did claim the Big West regular season title outright and won more than 20 games for the third time in four seasons. UC Davis is poised to contend again, and they’ll be well-prepared for Big West play thanks to trips to Arkansas, Indiana, UT Arlington (all part of the Ags’ exempt event), Arizona, and USC.

105. Long Beach State 49ers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (LBSU) 3 wins (Oregon State (N), Stanford, @Pepperdine), 4 losses (@Oregon State, Fresno State, @Southern Utah, @Colorado State)

With road games against a quartet of Pac-12 squads and SEC at-large threat Mississippi State, it’s another gauntlet for Dan Monson’s team, who went 15-18 in 2017-18, while recording six wins in 16 non-conference games. Still, Oregon State—a familiar face the 49ers played twice a season ago—visits the Walter Pyramid and the Beach will feature in an intriguing Middleweight Bracket at the MGM Resorts Main Event, featuring a semifinal game against America East favorite Hartford and a second day matchup against either perennial MAAC power Iona or WAC contender Utah Valley .

185. UC Irvine Anteaters

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@Denver, Idaho (N)) and 5 losses (@South Dakota State, @Utah State, @UTRGV, @Saint Mary’s, @Montana)

The Anteaters, vanquished by Cal State Fullerton in the Big West final, were supposed to take part in the Vancouver Showcase, which is why they visit both Texas A&M and Santa Clara early in the season. But since that event’s organizers, BD Global Sports, struggled to build a visitor’s bracket for the inaugural event, Russell Turner’s squad will instead head to an intriguing Gulf Coast Showcase (run by the same promoter). In Florida, a UTSA squad poised to finally make noise in Conference USA will await in the quarterfinals, while mid-major powers South Dakota State, Louisiana, and FGCU lurk further down the bracket.

But the quality doesn’t stop there on this schedule that the metrics might not give enough respect to, as a pair of Big Sky contenders—Montana and Idaho—visit the Bren Events Center, while Irvine also travels to Saint Mary’s and Butler.

215. Cal Poly Mustangs

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Holy Names) and 4 losses (@California, Fresno State, @Bethune-Cookman, @UT Arlington)

The Mustangs last finished above .500 in 2013—and 2018’s total of nine wins is half what Cal Poly accumulated in that season. Joe Callero’s squad won just five non-leage games a year ago. And with just four home games, a trio of Pac-12 road games, and a round-robin tournament at Portland, the Mustangs will likely have to rack up victories in Big West play to show any signs of improvement.

266. Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Hawai’i-Hilo) and 2 losses (@Utah, Miami (Fla.))

Eran Ganot’s Rainbow Warriors will play in a pair of bracketed events in familiar buildings this season—the Wooden Legacy at Cal State Fullerton’s Titan Gym and their own Diamond Head Classic. Good performances in those events will be necessary if Hawai’i wants to boost their own metrics and that of the conference because other than a trip to UCLA, the slate is full of low-calorie home games.

291. Cal State Northridge Matadors

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Morgan State) and 2 losses (Loyola Marymount, @Sacramento State)

Reggie Theus ran out of hang time after a 6-24 campaign that resulted in the Matadors missing the Big West Tournament. Theus’ replacement is former Alabama and N.C. State coach Mark Gottfried, who’s already been connected to the FBI investigation into college basketball, which he denies contractually. Potential distractions aside, CSUN has a schedule that allows for potential improvement, as a road trip to New Mexico State in the on-campus round of the Las Vegas Classic is the only game the Matadors will play outside of the Pacific Time Zone. They even get a New Mexico squad that could contend for an NCAA bid to visit the Matadome to open the season on November 6th.

293 UC Riverside Highlanders

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Air Force, Valparaiso, UC Merced) and 4 losses (@Loyola Marymount, Portland State, Pacific, @Pepperdine)

After winning a total of 17 games in his final two seasons in charge, Dennis Cutts was relieved of his duties in Riverside, with David Patrick taking over a program that last finished above .500 a full decade ago (2008-09). While the Highlanders opened the season by winning at California and also knocked off Valparaiso during non-league play, those were among the rare highlights of a nine-win campaign. This schedule, featuring trips to Oregon State, UNLV, and a vengeful Valpo squad, along with an exempt round-robin at Pacific and first ever Division I meeting with crosstown rival Cal Baptist, likely won’t get UC Riverside on track.

339. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (UCSB) 5 wins (North Dakota State, @San Francisco, Omaha, @Montana State, @Sacramento State)

Joe Pasternack’s first Gaucho team won 17 more games than Bob Williams’ final squad—and UCSB didn’t even need to participate in a national postseason tournament to complete that jump. This manageable schedule should get UCSB off on the right foot this season—the most difficult road games look to be at Washington and Wyoming. Plus, the Gauchos will get to play a pair of Big Sky teams as part of Idaho’s exempt event in Boise, while the Vandals and Portland State will both need to play a neutral-site game against non-D1 Northwest Nazarene as part of the proceedings.

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