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Ranking The Teams

In 2008, Kent State earned a nine seed in the NCAA Tournament. But in the 10 seasons since, a pair of 12s (2013 and 2015) is the conference’s high water mark. However, there’s hope that Buffalo, fresh off knocking off Arizona as a 13 seed in 2018, can escape a double-digit seed this time. There’s even a chance the Bulls could—should things go haywire at the MAC Tournament in Cleveland—earn the MAC’s first at-large bid since 1999.

But looking at the table below, it’s clear that Nate Oats’ squad must have a special season to earn one of the 36 at-large spots in March Madness. The MAC struggled as a whole in 2017-18, as its total of five top 150 teams in the four-year rankings heading into last season has been reduced to just three heading into the new campaign. And that’s with Eastern Michigan barely hanging on at 147. At least Miami improved enough to get out of the bottom 100. Getting more teams into the top 100 is the only way the MAC is going to be able to increase its postseason fortunes in an era when the power conferences dictate more and more of what happens in March.

The good news for the MAC is that KenPom’s preseason numbers project plenty of improvement, particularly among projected contenders. Buffalo’s 18-place jump, which would put the Bulls within the top 75 nationally, is actually the most modest improvement. However, none of the other half-dozen teams expected to rise in the national rankings do so by enough to crack the top 100, though Ball State could get close if it exceeds its 63-place projected rise.

Ranking The Schedules

While the MAC ranks 18th across all four non-conference scheduling categories, it’s league “Super Average” ranks 14th. So what gives? Well, the exempt events some league members (Bowling Green, Buffalo, Miami, WMU, for example) don’t have quite the variance in field quality that many others do, which skews the numbers relative to other conferences with plenty of teams in events with larger quality disparities between the top and bottom entrants in a field.

Regardless, the conference’s non-league slates improved considerably a season ago, even though there are still two bottom 50 schedules. That’s because the number of top 100 slates increased to three from one in 2017-18. Plus, seven teams’ “Super Average” numbers now rank within the top half of Division I, compared to five a year ago.

Note: The number of asterisks (*) represent the number of pending games on a team’s schedule.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

Buffalo, Ball State, Eastern Michigan, Miami, Northern Illinois, and Western Michigan all challenged themselves to a degree this season, with the Bulls hanging close to their four-year ranking, over-scheduling by six spots and the Cardinals (86) and Eagles (111) really aiming to test themselves this season. I suspect that Nate Oats would have built an even more difficult slate had UB not encountered such trouble in picking up games. Of the six teams who under-schedules, Ohio just missed its four-year ranking by two spots, while the rest did considerably worse, with both Toledo and Central Michigan under-scheduling by more than 150 places.

Over the past two seasons, MAC schedules have been remarkably consistent on these four fronts. This year, MAC members will play one more game in all categories except for Power 7 home games than in 2017-18. Of course, in that category, the number drops from one to zero with Kent State traveling to Oregon State to complete the pair’s two-for-one series.

With the addition of five games against Horizon League foes, the MAC’s regional mid-major rival jumps the “Non-D1” collective to top these standings for 2018. Those groups dominate this table for a second straight season, with the 48 combined games between them surpassing the total of 45 provided by the remainder of the top 10. Curiously, the Big Ten’s reduction in non-conference games from a maximum of 13 to 11 didn’t affect the number of games scheduled against the MAC—five were lined up last season, and the same total is in place for 2018-19. For the second season in a row, just one conference is missing from the set portion of MAC schedules. Last season it was the WCC, and in 2018-19, it’s the Sun Belt. However, four teams from that conference could meet MAC opposition in the latter stages of tournament play.

Detroit Mercy appears on a whopping six MAC schedules this season, while five of the Titans’ Horizon rivals—Cleveland State, Northern Kentucky, Oakland, Wright State, and Youngstown State—appear three times each. The same goes for Chicago State out of the WAC and the MVC’s Evansville. Flipping things around, Northern Illinois, Toledo, and Western Michigan will all play four Horizon League opponents, while Eastern Michigan takes on four non-D1 squads. But thanks to a home-and-home series with Evansville, Ball State has the most games scheduled against a single conference, as the Cardinals will play five Missouri Valley games this November and December.

MAC teams will play just one home non-conference game against a potential top 100 opponent—though Toledo’s visit from rebuilding Middle Tennessee unlikely to end up as either a Quad 1 or 2 win when all is said and done. While there are 26 top 100 road games on the schedule—22 of which come against teams in the top 75 of the four-year rankings (and therefore Quad 1 possibilities), it’s going to take a lot of victories in those contests to get MAC members on the national radar. In terms of tournament play, both Akron and Ball State could earn some quality wins with surprise starts in the Cayman Islands Classic and Charleston Classic.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

36. Eastern Michigan Eagles

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Central State, Rochester) and 0 losses

For the third time in his seven seasons in charge, Rob Murphy’s Eagles passed the 20-win mark. Nine of those victories came early in the season, with four coming against non-D1 opponents. And that’s the number of non-D1 foes featured on this EMU schedule, and those wins will probably come in handy again, thanks to the five road games that drive this slate’s high ranking. While Murphy’s former employer, Syracuse, is missing for the first time since 2015-16, Duke and Kansas feature in the Orange’s place. Eastern will also visit two other possible NCAA teams, Northeastern and TCU, along with Rutgers, with that game serving as the showcase matchup of the Scarlet Knights’ exempt event.

83. Buffalo Bulls

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Canisius) and 2 losses (St. Bonaventure, @Syracuse)

A season after winning 27 games, including one in the NCAAs, there are a lot of prognosticators expecting big things out of the Bulls. However, if Nate Oats’ squad is to either earn a higher than expected seed in March Madness—or a surprise at-large—it’s going to have to do some serious work away from Buffalo. Wins over Milwaukee and Stephen F. Austin in Northern Ireland probably won’t be enough for the Bulls’ metrics. But shocking some combo of Marquette, Syracuse, and West Virginia might be.

86. Ball State Cardinals

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (@Indiana State, IUPUI, Valparaiso) and 0 losses

A four-game skid to end the season prevented the Cardinals from winning 20 for the third season in succession, but James Whitford’s side is poised to challenge Buffalo, even if it struggles through November and December. And tough times are likely, thanks to road games at Purdue and Loyola Chicago, a home-and-home with Evansville, and—most dauntingly—three games at the Charleston Classic, where Virginia Tech, then either Alabama or CAA favorite Northeastern, will test Ball State on the first two days.

132. Western Michigan Broncos

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@Detroit Mercy, @Milwaukee) and 1 loss (Oakland)

The Broncos looked like contenders after racking up an 8-5 record in November and December of 2017, but Steve Hawkins’ squad couldn’t keep it together during MAC play, with a 17-15 final mark the result. WMU could get off to an even better start this fall, as only the Broncos’ Emerald Coast Classic road games against Ole Miss and Cincinnati and later trips to Michigan and Dayton resemble likely losses. WMU should take the visitors’ crown in the Florida Panhandle and sweep its home games. At that point, transferring any non-conference success to MAC play will be the biggest challenge for Hawkins’ squad.

161. Ohio Bobcats

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 0 wins and 1 loss (Iona)

After winning 20 or more in two consecutive campaigns, the Bobcats dipped to 14-17 in Saul Phillips’ fourth season in charge. Half of those victories came during non-conference play, with Ohio defeating at-large threat WKU in Athens and falling to eventual C-USA champ Marshall by a point in Huntington after overtime. The Thundering Herd visit the Convo this time, as do Big South champ Radford and an Iona squad Ohio lost to at home a season ago. Those contests, along with road games against Purdue and Xavier, are bigger highlights on this slate than the two games the Bobcats will play in Jamaica—featuring South Florida and Loyola Marymount, two of the weaker teams in their respective conferences.

164. Miami RedHawks

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Wright State, Midway, Purdue Fort Wayne)

In their first season under Jack Owens, the RedHawks bumped their win total up from 11 to 16, earning a CBI bid despite a below-.500 record. (It was not a great selection season for tournaments other than the NCAA or NIT.) While Miami went 7-6 in non-league play this season, equalling that mark could be a stretch this season. That’s thanks to road games against a pair of Big East powers (Butler and Xavier) along with the co-favorites for the Horizon title (Wright State and NKU). However, a difficult quarterfinal at the Islands of the Bahamas Showcase before Thanksgiving—against North Dakota State—could drop the RedHawks into the consolation bracket, which would likely provide a pair of winnable games, something that can’t be said about potential winners’ bracket matchups against Montana and Towson or Georgia Southern.

167. Northern Illinois Huskies

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Green Bay, Rockford, @Chicago State)

Mark Montgomery enters his eighth season in charge in DeKalb having led the Huskies to just one winning record, a 21-13 mark in 2015-16. While NIU won seven of its 13 non-conference games, en route to a 13-19 record, this schedule could see the Huskies struggle mightily early. Not only are there road games against Butler and Michigan State, but Northern Illinois also faces Horizon favorite NKU in a home-and-home series, welcomes Big West power UC Davis to the Convocation Center, and travels to Oakland for a round-robin event over Thanksgiving weekend. That’s not a recipe for even slight improvement in NIU’s fortunes.

223. Akron Zips

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Purdue Fort Wayne) and 1 loss (@Marshall)

The Zips went from 27 wins in Keith Dambrot’s final season to just 14 in John Groce’s first, though Akron tasted success early on, by winning seven of its 12 non-conference games. However, the Zips went 0-3 in their trip to Hawai’i for the Diamond Head Classic, and with 2018 NCAA qualifier Clemson their quarterfinal matchup in the Cayman Islands Classic and either Georgia or Illinois State up on day two, Akron could find itself in position to leave the Caribbean with a similar record. A road game at a Nevada team that’s rated in the top five by many and visit from Marshall means the Zips will be hard pressed to win the majority of their non-league games this time around.

234. Kent State Golden Flashes

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (@Norfolk State, Cleveland State, Oregon State) and 2 losses (@Wright State, @Albany)

The Golden Flashes’ semifinal loss to Buffalo left them at 17-17 for the season, only the second non-winning season in Rob Senderoff’s seven at the helm in Northeast Ohio. Kent State started 6-7 last fall, but a pair of non-D1 home games and six contests against teams ranked outside of the top 200 should bump the Flashes’ non-conference mark over .500 this time around. Three of those sub-200 games are scheduled as part of Kent State’s participation in Vanderbilt‘s exempt event. The Golden Flashes’ contest at Memorial Gym, one against Chris Mack’s first Louisville team, and a rubber match against Oregon State are the three biggest road challenges. Meanwhile, perennial America East contender Albany and Horizon champ Wright State are the two marquee home dates.

274. Toledo Rockets

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (UT) 4 wins (Oakland, Detroit Mercy, @Cleveland State, @Penn) and 2 losses (Marshall, Wright State)

Tod Kowalczyk’s Rockets, 23-11 a season ago, fell 10 points short of an NCAA bid in losing the MAC final to Buffalo. And while this schedule features only one potential game against a Power 7 team, and that’s Tulane on day three of the Gulf Coast Showcase, this is still a respectable schedule for a mid-major power (even if some of the home games weigh down the overall score). Why? Because it features plenty of other mid-major powers. Middle Tennessee and Ivy champ Penn visit Savage Arena, while the Rockets visit a pair of 2018 NCAA squads—Marshall and Wright State. Plus, the Gulf Coast Showcase field is sneaky good. Not only will Toledo play FGCU in a semi-road game in the quarterfinals, Sun Belt titan Louisiana , Summit champ South Dakota State, Big West contender UC Irvine, and UTSA, a rising C-USA power, all feature in the later rounds. That’s some good work in lining up teams that should benefit your metrics come March.

323. Bowling Green Falcons

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (BGSU) 2 wins (@Drexel, @Green Bay) and 0 losses

For the second time in three seasons, Michael Huger’s Falcons won 16 games. But for the first time in his tenure, 2017-18’s campaign ended with a non-losing record. Bowling Green was another team that finished the season on an awful skid—dropping its last six games, thanks to the MAC schedule makers doing the team no favors. But there were positives early, as the Falcons went 9-4 during non-league play, capped by a mid-November win over FGCU. Nine or 10 wins are possible against this schedule, as only a pair of Legends Classic road games against St. John’s and VCU look unwinnable for BGSU.

344. Central Michigan Chippewas

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (CMU) 5 wins (Siena Heights, Sam Houston State (N), Cal State Bakersfield (N), Jackson State, @UMKC) and 1 loss (@Southern Utah)

For the second time in Keno Davis’ six seasons in charge, the Chippewas won more than 20 games, though they needed a pair of wins in the CollegeInsider.com Tournament to do so. 11 of CMU’s victories came in November and December, capped by a win over Cal State Bakersfield in the final Great Alaska Shootout championship game. And with five teams the Chips defeated last season featuring on this slate—including the Roadrunners, Central’s first opponent at the Junkanoo Jam in the Bahamas—and just one Power 7 road game (TCU), look for Central Michigan to once again carry a lot of wins into MAC play.

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