For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

Warning: Graphics and tables may not appear optimally when viewing on a mobile device.

Ranking The Teams

For the second season in a row, the Valley ranks 11th out of Division I’s 32 conferences, though it took major improvements by league champ Loyola Chicago and the league’s bottom three teams to hold that position, as Illinois State, UNI, and Valparaiso all slid back in the four-year ranking. Those teams will all need to rebound for the conference to have a shot at earning its first at-large bid since Wichita State‘s departure after the 2016-17 season.

Sticking to that topic, KenPom’s 2018-19 preseason projections offer a mixed bag for the MVC. Loyola is expected to outperform its four-year ranking by 15 spots, but that’s only enough to put the Ramblers in the typical bubble range. Illinois State, a popular pick for a revival among national pundits, isn’t projected to get past its four-year ranking at all. Evansville, Missouri State, UNI, and Valpo are all projected to backslide, while SIU and Bradley could jump into contention.

Ranking The Schedules

As usual, non-conference scheduling wasn’t the easiest task for the majority of Valley squads—such is the struggle of a conference with a reputation for giant-killing and March success. Most distressingly, the league only features one slate that ranks in the top 100 when averaging the three variable scheduling categories together. That’s a drop of one from a season ago, a decline that’s made worse because UNI had a top 25 slate in 2017-18.

Three teams, including Loyola, have non-conference schedules that rank outside the top 200. Needless to say, that could cause the Ramblers problems if they fail to win the Valley’s auto bid.

On the positive side, MVC squad’s participation in bracketed tournaments will give them opportunities to boost their slates, as noted by the league’s 17th-ranked Maximum Schedule Strength average.

Note: The number of asterisks (*) represent the number of pending games on a team’s schedule.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

Eight of the 10 Valley members under-scheduled in 2018-19, with only Valparaiso and Drake overdoing things (by reasonable amounts too, as these things go). Not surprisingly, Loyola’s non-conference slate is 178 spots below their four-year ranking, a fate that’s nearly automatic for any mid-major that makes a deep March run.

A visit by Ole Miss to Illinois State is the lone Power 7 home game for a Valley squad this season, a drop of one from a season ago. As for the other three categories in the table above, MVC squads either improved (with three more home games lined up) or largely stood pat (playing one fewer Power 7 road game and the same number of non-D1 contests).

The top five leagues in the table above are largely the same as they were a season ago. However, the Summit League is an exception—dropping to the edge of the top 10 from the fourth spot, thanks to a decline of three scheduled games. Look for the Mountain West to potentially drop out of the top three next season, as the conference is starting a new annual challenge series with the Atlantic 10.

Four leagues have no set matchups with Valley teams, a drop of one conference from 2017-18, but the ACC and Patriot League could both feature in the later rounds of exempt tournaments.

Southern Illinois scheduled three OVC opponents this season, while Evansville has three MAC games on the schedule against just two opponents—the Purple Aces lined up a home-and-home series with in-state rival Ball State. The Cardinals will play five contests with Valley members, all of which are located in the states of Indiana or Illinois.

How difficult is it for Missouri Valley Conference teams to get quality games, regardless of location? While league members have just five top 75 home games scheduled (at least based on the four-year ranking), with none of those teams in the top 50, they also only have five top 75 road games scheduled, with all of those opponents featuring in the top 50. Once again, the Valley’s participation in exempt tournaments helps, as conference teams have three top 50 neutral-site games already set, with seven further possibilities in later rounds.

All told, 47 of the Valley’s 63 non-league home games will feature either Quad 4 opposition or non-D1 teams. Conversely, 31 of the 40 road games avoid the Quad 4 designation.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

88. Valparaiso Crusaders

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (@SIU Edwardsville) and 2 losses (@Ball State, @UC Riverside)

The Crusaders’ first Valley season was an adjustment—to put things mildly. Matt Lottich’s squad saw its win total decline by nine, with Valpo suffering its first losing season since 2009-10. The Crusaders’ struggles were more evident in league play, as Valparaiso finished its non-conference slate with a 9-4 mark, with heavy losses at Purdue and Northwestern the low-lights. With three power conference road games and three contests at the Myrtle Beach Invitational, which begins with a difficult quarterfinal against C-USA contender WKU, Valpo might find itself in a hole before its second run at Valley play begins.

127. Illinois State Redbirds

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@Ole Miss, UIC) and 3 losses (@FGCU, Boise State (N), @BYU)

If any Valley team is going to be able to use its November and December to work itself into the at-large pictures, it’s Dan Muller’s Redbird team—which is coming off an 18-15 campaign and second straight berth in the Arch Madness final. For starters, Illinois State will travel to the Caribbean for the Cayman Islands Classic where a win over Tom Crean’s first Georgia squad would see them likely play Sweet Sixteen squad Clemson in the semifinals. Back on the mainland, the Redbirds will host BYU, an at-large hopeful from the WCC; San Diego State, with the defending Mountain West Tournament champs a good get for the Challenge series; and Ole Miss, even if Kermit Davis has replaced Andy Kennedy, who helped set the Twitter series up. Plus, Illinois State travels to OVC favorite Belmont and American Athletic title hopeful UCF. This is a schedule that could be a nice test for how the NCAA’s new NET metric treats a quality mid-major squad.

136. UNI Panthers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (UT Arlington, Dubuque)

Ben Jacobson’s Panthers have put up a 30-32 record in the two seasons since their consecutive NCAA Tournament Round of 32 appearances. In November 2017, UNI earned some well-deserved national attention by toppling both SMU and N.C. State in the Battle 4 Atlantis before falling to eventual National Champion Villanova in the final. This season, the Panthers’ exempt event, the Paradise Jam, is a bit less ambitious, much like the rest of the schedule. But there’s still some quality here, particularly with a semifinal matchup against Kansas State, an Elite Eight team last March, awaiting UNI should they get past Ivy champ Penn in the quarterfinals on St. Thomas. Otherwise, the most noteworthy matchups for Jacobson’s squad are a meeting with Iowa in the final Big Four Classic in Des Moines; a matchup with Summit favorite South Dakota State at US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, site of the Final Four; and a non-bracketed Paradise Jam game at Old Dominion.

174. Evansville Purple Aces

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Arkansas State) and 0 losses

The highlight of Walter McCarty’s first Purple Aces schedule was supposed to be Evansville’s hosting duties for the Maui on the Mainland tournament. But organizers struggled to fill the subregional, so while the Purple Aces, 17-15 in Marty Simmons’ final season, will travel to both Illinois and Xavier, they’ll only host a pair of games against non-D1 Kentucky Wesleyan and SWAC power Texas Southern instead of a bracketed event. Other than the two Maui road games, this is a reasonable schedule for a team expected to struggle a bit in its first season under a new coach. The lack of teams from the bottom 100 keeps it right near the Division I average.

197. Indiana State Sycamores

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Green Bay) and 3 losses (Ball State, @North Texas, @WKU)

Time might be running out on Greg Lansing in Terre Haute, as the Sycamores haven’t posted a winning record since 2013-14’s 23-11 mark and last qualified for the NCAAs in 2011. Last season, Indiana State bumbled to a 5-7 non-conference record, including an 0-3 mark in the pre-Thanksgiving Charleston Classic (capped by a quadruple overtime loss to Ohio). This season, the Trees’ exempt event is set for Christmas week—and those three games in Hawai’i and an earlier non-bracketed contest at TCU—are among the biggest challenges on a slate also features three tricky Division I home contests (WKU, Horizon champ Wright State, and improving North Texas). Look for the Sycamores to potentially struggle through yet another pre-conference season.

197. Drake Bulldogs

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 0 wins and 1 loss (Colorado (N))

Niko Medved improved the Bulldogs by 10 wins a season ago, getting Drake to the .500 mark before departing for Colorado State. Darian DeVries, a UNI alum and former Creighton assistant, will attempt to continue the rebuild in Des Moines. But don’t expect immediate results against this non-conference slate that’s deceptively difficult. While a trip to Colorado is the most difficult true road game, the Bulldogs will be challenged in four neutral-site contests, with the US Bank Stadium showdown with North Dakota State, Big Four Classic matchup against Iowa State, and Las Vegas semifinal against perennial WAC champ New Mexico State looking particularly nasty. Plus, there are two very difficult home games, as Boise State visits for the Mountain West Challenge and MAAC favorite Rider is one of Drake’s two Las Vegas Classic home games.

203. Southern Illinois Salukis

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@Winthrop, SIU Edwardsville) and 4 losses (@Murray State, @Saint Louis, Southeast Missouri State, Nevada (N))

After a slow start to his tenure in Carbondale, Barry Hinson has led the Salukis to three straight winning seasons. However, SIU hasn’t tasted real postseason success since reaching the Sweet Sixteen in 2007. To get themselves in position to play meaningful March basketball for the first time in over a decade, the Salukis will need to improve upon last season’s 8-5 non-conference mark. And that’s going to be a challenge with this slate featuring an early trip to Kentucky, a home-and-home with MAC favorite Buffalo, a visit from A 10 favorite Saint Louis, tricky home matchups with Murray State and Winthrop, and a potential Black Friday showdown with Nevada in Vegas. The Wolf Pack blasted SIU by 22 there last December.

261. Loyola Chicago Ramblers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (@UMKC, UIC, Norfolk State, Nevada (N))

Porter Moser’s Ramblers will have their work cut out for them this season, at least in terms of earning an at-large bid to help them repeat their heroics of March 2018. Loyola had an even more difficult time building a non-conference slate than they did for 2017-18, which is saying something. The Ramblers’ best game, a Sweet Sixteen rematch with Nevada, was an easy choice for the MVC/MW Challenge, but there’s not much else here that will help Moser’s club’s profile. None of Loyola’s rivals in the Fort Myers Tip-Off looks like a slam dunk at-large team, while Maryland and Saint Joseph’s (who the Ramblers will both play in semi-road situations) are coming off disappointing seasons. Illinois’ best college hoops team will likely need a bit of help to be a true at-large threat...again.

279. Missouri State Bears

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@WKU, @North Dakota State) and 2 loss (North Dakota State, @Oral Roberts)

Dana Ford left Tennessee State for Springfield, Mo. to replace Paul Lusk, who was relieved of his duties after seven seasons of not being able to get the Bears over the hump. The biggest challenges for Missouri State, rebuilding after losing five seniors from an 18-15 squad, will come in Kansas City, where the Bears will play a pair of games against Power 7 at-large contenders in the Hall of Fame Classic. Otherwise, the biggest challenges will come against WKU at home (a season after the Bears beat the Hilltoppers to open the season) and Murray State, North Dakota State, and Oregon State on the road.

310. Bradley Braves

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 6 wins (IUPUI, Georgia Southern, Eastern Illinois, Little Rock, @Chicago State, @Southeast Missouri State) and 0 losses

In his third season in Peoria, Brian Wardle’s Braves reached the 20-win mark, their second consecutive improvement of seven wins or more. Last season, Bradley used a 10-3 non-conference run to build its record and similar results could be on the cards this fall. That’s because this slate features seven opponents ranked outside of the top 200 and the Cancun Challenge will far and away offer up the most difficult matchups.

Be sure to follow @ChrisDobbertean on Twitter and to like Blogging the Bracket on Facebook.