For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

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Ranking The Teams

Butler‘s final season before the Bulldogs’ departure for the Atlantic 10 (then Big East), 2011-12, was a harbinger of things to come for the Horizon League. While Butler ended up in the CBI and Cleveland State and Valparaiso (another eventual departure) earned NIT bids, conference tournament champion Detroit Mercy earned a 15 seed. During Between 2007 and 2011, Butler earned single-digit seeds in each NCAA Tournament and the Bulldogs secured at-large bids in the two seasons they required one.

But since the Indianapolis school’s departure, the highest seed the Horizon champion has earned is the 13 current Missouri Valley member Valpo secured in 2015. The conference tournament has been largely responsible for this, as the 2013 and 2015 Crusader squads are the only Horizon regular season champs who have qualified for the NCAAs since 2011. After the last three tournaments—which saw both the 1 and 2 seeds lose in the quarterfinals in 2016 and 2017 and the top seed fall at the same stage in 2018—the conference is making some changes. For starters, only the top eight teams will qualify, with the top four seeds hosting quarterfinals on campus before the semifinals and final take place in Detroit (for the final time under the “Motor City Madness” contract).

While these reforms might push a Horizon League double champion into the field, I wouldn’t expect that team to necessarily earn a seed higher than 13th. After last season, no conference member ranks among the top 125 of the four-year ratings (Oakland and Green Bay did heading into last year), while 70 percent of the league sits in the bottom half of Division I.

While KenPom projects that typical contenders Green Bay and Oakland will seriously underperform this season when compared to the four-year ranking, the last two Horizon NCAA reps, Wright State and NKU, should outperform theirs. As should UIC, as squad that caught fire during league play in 2018.

Ranking The Schedules

This season, the Horizon slightly improved upon its non-conference schedule as a whole, as the league is consistently in the top 10 across all of the categories below. Green Bay’s schedule cracks the top 20, with Detroit Mercy in the top 50 and Oakland in the top 75. A season ago, only the Golden Grizzlies found themselves in the top 100. Disappointingly, Wright State and NKU find themselves closer to the bottom of the rankings than the top, with both outside of the national top 200 in most categories.

Note: The number of asterisks (*) represent the number of pending games on a team’s schedule.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

Not surprisingly, both the Raiders and Norse find themselves among the three Horizon members who under-scheduled this year, and both of their gaps are far worse than IUPUI’s three-point difference. Every other league member over-scheduled with Detroit Mercy, coached by notorious over-scheduler Mike Davis, leading the way. Just think that he wasn’t responsible for much of the Titans’ 239-place gap since he was hired relatively late in the offseason.

The average Horizon League schedule features an average of six non-conference home games, with Northern Kentucky and Cleveland State on the high end of the scale and Detroit Mercy and Youngstown State playing two fewer than average. With UIC returning last year’s game against DePaul, no Horizon member will host a Power 7 team. In 2018-19, Horizon teams will play a total of three more power conference road games than they did a season ago, while the league is playing two fewer non-D1 home games than in 2017-18.

For the second season in a row, Horizon League teams will play MAC opponents more than anyone else—with six more games scheduled against their regional rivals than a season ago. It looks like these additional games came at the expense of non-D1 opponents (down two when compared to 2017-18), Big Ten (down two), and MVC (down another two). Horizon members also added games against the A 10 (seven, with just two scheduled a season ago) and Big East (six, compared to three last season). Last season, only two conferences, the Big West and Patriot League, were absent from Horizon schedules. This time around, the SWAC and WCC join them. However, the latter two leagues feature in tournaments Horizon members are participating in.

A trio of MAC members—Northern Illinois, Toledo, and Western Michigan—will play four games each against Horizon opponents, while Kent State will play three. Detroit Mercy has the most non-conference opponents from a single league on its schedule, and its not close. The Titans have a whopping six games lined up against MAC opposition, nearly half of its non-conference schedule, and they could add a seventh in the Legends Classic subregional final.

The overwhelming majority of Horizon League home non-conference games, 50 of 60, will feature teams from Quad 4 or outside of Division I entirely. Making matters worse, just three of the 10 Quad 3 home games feature teams from the top 100 of the four-year ranking. Naturally, that means Horizon members will have their work cut out for them on the road. They’ll play a total of 14 top-50 road games (based on the ranking) and seven further games against squads ranked among the second 50.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net, except for Green Bay (GreenBayPhoenix.com).

20. Green Bay Phoenix

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 0 wins and 4 losses (@Northern Illinois, @Belmont, @Indiana State, Bowling Green)

Since winning the Horizon auto bid in 2016, Linc Darner’s Phoenix have seen five wins disappear from their total in each subsequent season. 2017-18’s 13-win campaign saw Green Bay win just a pair of games against Division I foes in non-conference play (five wins overall). And that was with seven home contests on the schedule. This time around, the Phoenix will play just five home games—with the three D1 visitors all owning wins over Green Bay from last season. Add in four Power 7 road games and a tricky trip to Eastern Washington for the 2K Empire Classic subregional and it’s possible Green Bay will find itself behind the eight ball before Horizon play even begins.

49. Detroit Mercy Titans

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Toledo, Western Michigan)

Bacari Alexander was forced out after two seasons at Calihan Hall, the second of which featured a suspension for misconduct. It took the Titans awhile to land a replacement, but the wait was worth it, as former Indiana coach Mike Davis returns to the Midwest after taking Texas Southern to four NCAAs and one NIT in six seasons. During his tenure in Houston, Davis’ Tigers played a total of seven home non-conference games, with four of those in his first season. Not surprisingly, that’s the same number of non-league home matchups on the Titans’ 2018-19 slate—with two of those in the Legends Classic subregional. But with nine road games, including Power 7 matchups against Butler, California, Temple, and Xavier, Davis’ philosophy of lining up difficult road tests to prepare for conference play is very much intact, even in a radically different conference.

64. Oakland Golden Grizzlies

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (@Western Michigan) and 2 losses (@Toledo, Michigan State (N))

Despite seeing their win total dip from 25 to 19 last season, Greg Kampe’s Golden Grizzlies should once again challenge NKU and Wright State for the Horizon title. However, Oakland might be road weary by the time league play begins. After their Thanksgiving weekend MTE, the Golden Grizzlies will play six games in a row away from the O’Rena—all of them against teams with postseason hopes.

137. Youngstown State Penguins

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (YSU) 1 win (Westminster) and 1 loss (Robert Morris)

Jerrod Calhoun’s Penguins saw their win total drop from 13 to eight in his first season in charge—with Youngstown State winning just a pair of games against non-D1 squads during non-conference play. A similar start could be in the cards again this season, as the Penguins play three power conference road games and another three contests in the Bronx as part of Fordham‘s exempt tournament.

139. UIC Flames

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (UW Parkside) and 4 losses (Saint Joseph’s, @Loyola Chicago, DePaul, @Illinois State)

The Flames didn’t live up to expectations last season, despite winning 20 games and advancing to the CollegeInsider.com Tournament final. Not only did UIC lose its last two Horizon League games at home, which cost Steve McClain’s squad a shot at the two seed in the conference tournament, they struggled through non-conference play, going just 5-8 with only three Division I wins. It could be another slow start in the Windy City, as this slate, which features a trio of power conference road games and visit from 2018 Final Four squad Loyola Chicago, is considerably more difficult than 2017’s. Last fall’s non-conference slate featured four teams that ranked 249th or worse in KenPom at the end of the year. Just one D1 team ranked that low in the four-year-rankings, Incarnate Word, is on this season’s non-conference schedule.

193. Cleveland State Vikings

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Notre Dame (Ohio) and 3 losses (@Kent State, @Niagara, @Toledo)

Former Western Kentucky and Georgia coach Dennis Felton took over from Gary Waters last season, with the Vikings subsequently improving from nine wins to 12. A quarter of those victories happened as part of CSU’s surprise run to the Horizon League final, while another 25 percent happened during a 3-10 non-conference season. Look for a bit of early improvement in Cleveland—if only because the Vikings play eight home games this time around, with six of those featuring teams ranked either outside of the top 200 or not part of Division I period. Last fall, Cleveland State hit the road eight times.

198. Milwaukee Panthers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (FIU) and 1 loss (Western Michigan)

The Panthers improved by five wins—from 11 to 16—in Pat Baldwin’s first year in charge—following LaVall Jordan’s lone campaign before Butler hired him away. While Milwaukee lost to non-D1 Concordia in their exempt event, they still managed a 7-6 non-league mark a season ago, highlighted by a road win over Iowa State. While the Panthers will play both Boston College and Cincinnati on the road, the highlight of this season’s slate is a journey across the Atlantic, as Milwaukee will take part in the second annual Belfast Basketball Classic. Of course, the Panthers drew the toughest assignment in the Goliath Bracket semifinals, as heavy MAC favorite Buffalo awaits. A visit from America East power Albany and the home half of an in-season series with North Dakota highlight the five-game home slate.

219. Wright State Raiders

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Kent State, @Toledo) and 1 loss (Murray State)

Scott Nagy followed up 2017’s 20-win, postseason-free first campaign in Dayton with a 25-win season and NCAA bid in his second. And with just three winnable true road games and a position in the host Riviera Division of the Cancun Challenge, the Raiders are poised to rack up even more wins in Nagy’s third. Given the lack of oomph on the seven-game home slate, Wright State might need to take care of both Penn State in the Cancun semifinals and SEC contender Mississippi State in a semi-road game in Jackson to have a shot at a seed higher than 13th should the Raiders repeat as Horizon champ.

245. Northern Kentucky Norse

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Morehead State, Eastern Kentucky) and 1 loss (@UMBC)

Road tests against a pair of likely NCAA teams from the American Athletic—Cincinnati and UCF—are the two biggest road blocks on a home-heavy schedule which could put John Brannen’s Norse on course for a second consecutive Horizon regular-season crown. While NKU hosts a three-game round-robin event in November, the most anticipated contest on the BB&T Arena portion of the slate will undoubtedly be the visit from UMBC, the first 16 seed to topple a No. 1 seed in NCAA Men’s Tournament history.

263. IUPUI Jaguars

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (IUPUI) 2 wins (Morehead State, IU Kokomo) and 4 losses (@Bradley, @Eastern Illinois, @Western Illinois, @Ball State)

The Jaguars have yet to break even in four seasons under Jason Gardner, though they showed signs of life in 2017-18 by following up a poor three-win non-league campaign by winning eight Horizon League contests. Casting aside likely losses against Boston College, Richmond (both in Fort Myers Tip-Off on-campus games), and Xavier, the rest of the schedule sets the Jags up for an increased win total. They could even claim a trophy by winning two games at Niagara in the Fort Myers event’s subregional.

As someone who spent part of his youth not far from Niagara’s campus and much more of it in Florida, that subregional assignment is downright cruel for November.

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