For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

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Ranking The Teams

After landing on line 15 from 2009 to 2011, the NEC’s NCAA representative has found itself on line 16 in each of the six tournaments since—with each of those teams needing to play in Dayton. Making matters worse, only Robert Morris in 2015 and 2017’s Mount St. Mary’s team made it to the Round of 64. And with every NEC member ranked outside of the top 200, with 40 percent finding themselves in the bottom 50 in the four-year ranking, it’s likely that streak will continue for the nation’s 30th-ranked conference in 2019.

But KenPom has a glimmer of hope in its 2018-19 preseason numbers, as NEC favorite St. Francis (Pa.) is projected to outperform its four-year record by a whopping 85 places, which would be good enough to get the Red Flash into that metric’s top 175. If their NET numbers reflect similar results, that could get St. Francis on to line 15 if it secures both NEC titles. However, even though five other league teams are projected to improve upon their recent performances, their increases are still likely to give them metrics that would drive them to seed line 16 if they end up representing the conference in March Madness.

Ranking The Schedules

The 30th-ranked conference according to the four-year rankings also holds down the 30th spot in the schedule rankings. Even though St. Francis (Pa.) has a top 60 schedule according to the super average, just two other NEC members find themselves in the top 200. And with three of the weaker schedules outside of the top 300, it’s not surprising that the Red Flash’s slate doesn’t do much to bolster the conference’s standing nationally.

This season’s NEC non-conference slate are worse than those of 2017-18, as last season’s leagued average ranked in the lower 20s in most cases, not the near 30 range like this season.

Note: The number of asterisks (*) represent the number of pending games on a team’s schedule.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

Just two NEC members, Wagner and LIU Brooklyn under-scheduled this season, with the other eight over-scheduling to varying degrees. While St. Francis Brooklyn, Sacred Heart, and Fairleigh Dickinson build more modest slates that remained close to their four-year rankings, St. Francis (Pa.) and Robert Morris, among others, were far more ambitious.

While the NEC’s 10 teams will collectively play five more home games than they did in 2017-18, all of those will come against non-D1 opponents. Schedule quality also dipped overall, thanks to a slight drop in Power 7 road games—from 29 to 25.

Non-D1 opponents displaced the now-second-placed America East at the top of this table for 2018-19, with the top four remaining stable. However, the Big East replaced the ACC as the fifth-placed—and top Power 7—conference. Nine conferences are absent from NEC slates this season, compared to 11 in 2017-18.

The America East’s UMass Lowell will play five games against NEC teams, though the River Hawks will meet Sacred Heart twice (once at a neutral-site). Hartford, NJIT , St. John’s, and Saint Peter’s will all play a quartet of league members. Meanwhile, Sacred Heart has four America East (and three Patriot League) teams on its schedule, with Bryant lining up four Ivy League contests.

Not only will 16 of the NEC’s 44 home non-conference games feature non-Division I teams, just one of the remaining 28 includes an opponent ranked in the top 160, the dividing line between Quadrants 3 and 4. And things don’t really improve all that much when looking at games away from home. Even though NEC clubs will play 28 top 135 road games, 41 away contests feature teams from outside of the top 135. Meanwhile, the conference won’t play a single top 100 opponent (according to the four-year ranking) at a neutral-site. Thus, thanks to these scheduling difficulties, the NEC looks destined to spend yet another season ranked near the bottom of Division I.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

60. St. Francis (Pa.) Red Flash

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (Franciscan, American, @Niagara, Lehigh) and 0 losses

Rob Krimmel’s Red Flash are the NEC favorite for the second season in a row, though they fell two games short of Wagner in 2018’s conference race. Even though St. Francis is technically participating in an exempt event this season, as the Flash will visit both UCLA and North Carolina for the Las Vegas Invitational, they didn’t schedule the full four games, likely because that event had troubles building a proper visitors’ bracket this season. Those two road trips, along with visits to 2018 NCAA teams Buffalo and Virginia Tech and Patriot League contender Lehigh, boost this schedule above the rest of the NEC.

135. Robert Morris Colonials

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (@Youngstown State, Rider, Drexel) and 2 losses (@Siena, Canisius)

For the second season in a row, Andy Toole’s Colonials saw a slight uptick in wins, though RMU is still aiming to reach the heights 2012-2015. Last season, the Colonials were streaky in non-conference—losing three, winning four, losing one, winning two, then finally dropping their last three toughest contests before NEC play began. Even with three power conference road games, Robert Morris should better last season’s 6-7 non-conference mark, thanks to the addition of two non-D1 home games and winnable road contests at Drexel and Stetson.

176. Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Loyola (Md.), @American) and 2 losses (Morgan State, @Lehigh)

Dan Engelstad enters his first season in Emmitsburg with an inexperienced roster, so don’t expect the Mountaineers to replicate the 18-14 record of Jamion Christian’s final campaign. And with nine road games, including four power contests and visit to C-USA champ Marshall), it’s going to be difficult for the Mount to even equal last season’s 6-7 non-conference mark.

244. Wagner Seahawks

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 5 wins (@NJIT, American, @Hartford, Fairfield, UMass Lowell) and 2 losses (@Rider, @Seton Hall)

For the third season in a row, the Seahawks had their hearts broken in the NEC Tournament. So, Bashir Mason’s team, which won 23 for the second time in three years in 2017-18, will try again. And with two non-D1 games and five sub-200 contests, Wagner might be able to equal last season’s 7-4 non-conference mark, which would put the Seahawks in decent position for some sort of postseason bid with another strong in-conference performance.

248. Central Connecticut State Blue Devils

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (N.C. A&T, Maine, @UMass Lowell) and 1 loss (@Hartford)

The Blue Devils saw their win total jump from six to 14 in Donyell Marshall’s second season in charge, with half of those victories coming in non-league play. And even though CCSU will play four power conference road games and travel to the West Coast twice and to Jamaica for its exempt event, matching or exceeding last season’s seven non-conference wins is possible thanks to the two non-D1 games and six contests scheduled against teams ranked outside of the top 240.

262. Bryant Bulldogs

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (@Hartford) and 5 losses (Navy, Brown, @Yale, @New Hampshire, @Dartmouth)

The Bulldogs won just three games in Tim O’Shea’s final season, but at least Jared Grasso has some returning talent to help speed the rebuilding process along. Bryant won just one non-league game a season ago—on the road, incredibly. And with two more home games on this year’s slate, the Bulldogs will have a shot to improve upon that total.

288. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Holy Cross) and 4 losses (Princeton, @Saint Peter’s, @Rutgers, @NJIT)

Since reaching the 2016 NCAAs, Greg Herenda’s Knights have lost 13 more games than they’ve won, while recording a 5-17 mark in non-league games in 2016 and 2017. While there are plenty of winnable games on this season’s schedule, particularly at home, the road trips will challenge FDU. And that’s true even with two of the Power 7’s weakest squads, Rutgers and South Florida, featured.

304. Sacred Heart Pioneers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (@UMass Lowell, Dartmouth, Lafayette) and 5 losses (Holy Cross, @Boston College, @St. John’s, @Hartford, Binghamton)

Anthony Latina enters his sixth season on the Pioneers’ bench coming off a 10-win season and having never led SHU to a winning mark. This schedule, featuring eight road games (three against Power 7 teams expected to contend for the postseason) and eight returning opponents from a season ago, likely won’t help the Pioneers in their quest to better last season’s 5-8 non-conference mark. Brown‘s exempt tournament, featuring three similarly-situated squads, will good early measuring stick for Sacred Heart.

326. St. Francis Brooklyn Terriers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 0 wins and 2 losses (@Manhattan, @Saint Peter’s)

In 2018, the Terriers once again failed to reach their first NCAA Tournament, with Glenn Braica’s squad recording 13 victories—though that was a nine-win improvement over 2016-17. Unfortunately for St. Francis, just three of its victories came during non-conference play, and two of those were over non-D1 squads. Though this schedule features a pair of power conference road trips, there are nine potential wins here, in theory anyway. The Terriers’ trip to Niagara for the Fort Myers Tip-Off’s subregional provides them with an early chance at some hardware that could serve as a launching pad for the Brooklyn club.

343. LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (New Rochelle, Stony Brook, @Binghamton) and 5 losses (@Fordham, @Brown, @NJIT, Fairfield (N), Saint Peter’s (N))

This will be the last season for the Blackbirds in the NEC, as LIU’s Brooklyn and C.W. Post campuses will be combining their athletic programs—complete with a new nickname and school colors—just in time for the 2019-20 academic year. Derek Kellogg’s first season in charge ended with an NCAA bid and First Four loss to Radford. His second starts with a non-league schedule filled with familiar names and the absence of a Power 7 road game. However, the Blackbirds will still play eight games away from the Steinberg Center, including two in Northern Ireland as part of LIU’s exempt tournament. And those travels will make it difficult for Kellogg’s squad to improve upon its 5-8 non-conference mark of a season ago.

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