For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

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Ranking The Teams

Over the past 10 seasons, the Sun Belt’s representatives in the NCAA Tournament—always an auto bid winner, other than Middle Tennessee‘s surprise at-large in 2013—have consistently earned double-digit seeds. And with the exception of Little Rock’s 12 seed in 2016, the Sun Belt champ has earned a seed of 14 or lower since WKU‘s own 12 in 2009, including the 15s Georgia State and Troy picked up in the last two seasons.

But with Louisiana entering the top 100 of this season’s four-year ranking and UT Arlington and Georgia State sitting just outside of it, the conference is improving. In fact, six of the top eight teams in the table below saw their four-year team scores increase after last season. And with the Sun Belt moving to a flexible conference schedule in 2019-20, if the leagues continues to work its way up, the teams at the top might see the benefits come March—and while improved at-large chances might not be in play (yet), better seeding would be a distinct possibility.

While KenPom projects that a pair of second division teams will see their fortunes improve the most this season when compared to the four-year ranking, the Sun Belt’s last two NCAA reps, Georgia State and Troy, and another contender, Georgia Southern, should also overperform their recent histories. Unfortunately, Louisiana and, especially, UT Arlington might encounter some difficulties in 2018-19.

Ranking The Schedules

The Sun Belt’s non-conference schedules, which ranked at or near the bottom of Division I in 2017-18, are much improved this year, with reduced membership in both the bottom 50 and 100, along with three top 100 schedules according to the super average. Last season, only Appalachian State found itself ranked that high. Heading into this year, half of the conference’s non-league slates rank in the top half of Division I—only a quarter of the Sun Belt’s membership could make that claim just one season ago.

Note: The number of asterisks (*) represent the number of pending games on a team’s schedule.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

The Sun Belt is split right down the middle in terms of over- and under-schedulers, with Appalachian State and Texas State the only two teams to miss the mark by 100 or more places. In fact, the Mountaineers are the biggest over-schedulers the second season in a row. While Georgia Southern, Georgia State, and UT Arlington all built schedules that exceeded their four-year rankings, Louisiana negatively missed its mark by 72 spots.

The Sun Belt collectively scheduled the same number of home games as it did one season ago, needing five fewer non-D1 contests to do so. While that reduction in non-D1 games affected the league’s schedule quality, the addition of 13 power conference road games was even more impactful. While the Sun Belt has a single Power 7 home game on the slate, that’s a reduction of two when compared to a season ago. Plus, Tulane‘s visit to South Alabama isn’t one that’s going to draw much attention, nationally or even regionally, anyway.

While the Sun Belt reduced its non-D1 games this season, that group of opponents still leads the 32 Division I conferences in the table above. Curiously, two of the other three conferences in the top four—the Southland and Conference USA—also heavily rely on teams from outside of D1 to complete their schedules. The SEC jumps into the top three, thanks to the addition of four Sun Belt games. That dropped the American, third a season ago, down to fifth, even though that league added two games itself.

Last year, three conferences were absent from Sun Belt slates, a number that’s grown to five this season, though both the MAC and Summit could line up against league teams in the later rounds of tournaments.

Central Arkansas and Tulane are the only two teams that will play three games against Sun Belt opposition, with the Bears only qualifying because of their annual home-and-home with neighbors Little Rock. That series helps push the Trojans toward three Southland games, with Louisiana and ULM also playing a trio of games against members of that conference (five of those opponents are from Louisiana, fittingly). Coastal Carolina (Big South), Georgia State (SoCon), and Troy (C-USA) will also play three non-conference opponents from one league in 2018-19.

Of the Sun Belt’s 66 non-conference home games, just three will come against opposition that ranks (barely) within the four-year rankings top 100, while league members will play 28 such games on the road. In fact, 41 of the conference’s home games will feature teams that are either ranked outside of the top 250 or aren’t even Division I members. That’s the type of discrepancy that will only hurt the league’s collective metrics as the season goes on.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net, except for Louisiana (Matt Sullivan, Louisiana Athletics) and ULM (ULMWarhawks.com).

21. UT Arlington Mavericks

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (North Texas, @UTRGV, Cal Poly) and 1 loss (@UNI)

Chris Ogden, formerly a Texas assistant, replaces Scott Cross, who was relieved of his duties after three consecutive 20-win seasons, none of which ended with an NCAA bid. Last season’s Maverick squad couldn’t build upon a 9-4 non-conference record, highlighted by an early win at BYU and Barclays Center Classic subregional title. This season’s slate is markedly more difficult the last, particularly since the number of Power 7 road games jumped from two to five—and that number doesn’t even include the visit to Gonzaga.

51. Georgia State Panthers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Tulane, Montana, @Chattanooga) and 1 loss (Liberty)

Ron Hunter’s Panthers, who gave Cincinnati a fight in last season’s NCAA First Round, could earn some early attention with a good performance at the Cayman Islands Classic, where three fellow March Madness qualifiers are present in the bracket, with two on Georgia State’s side alone. Later on, the Panthers will visit another two NCAA squads—an Alabama squad that won a game in the Big Dance and a Kansas State outfit that reached the Elite Eight.

93. Appalachian State Mountaineers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Davidson, South Florida) and 0 losses

While the Mountaineers’ four home games should allow them to nearly equal last season’s non-conference win total of five, Jim Fox’s squad will be challenged on their travels. And that’s true even though they visit a pair of American Athletic bottom feeders in South Florida and East Carolina. Appalachian State, which saw its win total jump by six in recording a 15-18 mark in 2017-18, will play three difficult games at the Myrtle Beach Invitational, starting with their quarterfinal against Purdue . Plus, they’ll visit Alabama in a non-bracketed game for that event, rising Georgetown, and Saint Louis, the A 10 favorite. The Mountaineers will likely need to pull off a surprise in Charleston or defeat ECU or USF to have a chance at bettering last season’s non-conference performance.

149. Georgia Southern Eagles

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (@George Mason) and 3 losses (Towson (N), @Bradley, @ETSU)

Mark Byington’s Eagles will look to improve their win total for the third consecutive season, starting with a manageable non-conference slate that features just two Power 7 contests, at Arizona and UCF. With ETSU expected to take a step back in the SoCon, A 10 contender George Mason, a team Georgia Southern defeated in Fairfax last season, is likely to be the strongest visitor to Statesboro this fall. Meanwhile, the Eagles have a great chance to make the final of the Islands of the Bahamas Showcase, where Big Sky champ Montana could be waiting.

168. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 5 wins (McNeese State, Loyola (La.), @Louisiana Tech, New Orleans, Southeastern Louisiana) and 0 losses

The Ragin’ Cajuns 2017-18 campaign ended in disappointment, even with a 27-7 record and Sun Belt regular season title. That’s because UT Arlington knocked Louisiana off in the conference semifinals, with the Ragin’ Cajuns eventually losing an ill-tempered NIT contest at LSU. As Bob Marlin’s squad attempts to rebound, nearly all of the quality in its non-conference schedule comes from its participation in the Tip-Off version of the NIT—sort of. In a season full of exempt tournament difficulties and shenanigans, the Ragin’ Cajuns will play at both Kansas and Tennessee as part of the hosts’ NIT on-campus rounds. But only the game in Knoxville will count for Louisiana, which was added to a decent Gulf Coast Showcase field, with that event becoming an NIT subregional for this season. While in Fort Myers, Louisiana will have a decent shot to reach the final, though they might have to get past a FGCU squad playing not far from campus in the semifinals, where Summit power South Dakota State would be the ideal opponent.

173. ULM Warhawks

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Jackson State, Grambling State, Millsaps) and 2 losses (Northwestern State, @Stephen F. Austin)

After following up a pair of 20-win seasons with a 9-24 mark in 2016-17, the Warhawks recorded a seven-win improvement last year to get back to .500. Keith Richard’s squad did so while recording six wins in its 11 non-conference game, though only the first two came against Power 7 opponents. With four such contests on this season’s expanded 12-game slate, including a pair of Las Vegas Invitational contests at Texas and Michigan State, securing a second consecutive winning non-league record will be a far more challenging assignment. Working in ULM’s favor—a non-D1 game and six games featuring teams from outside of the top 200.

218. Arkansas State Red Wolves

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Abilene Christian) and 2 losses (@Evansville, @FAU)

Mike Balado’s first Red Wolves team recorded nine fewer victories than Grant McCasland’s last, though the Red Wolves’ 5-8 non-league mark was only partially to blame. But with an easier exempt tournament on offer in 2018 than last season’s Indiana-focused event and five true home games, Arkansas State will have a decent chance of entering Sun Belt play with an over-.500 record. And that’s true even if four of the five road games are likely losses.

260. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (@Hampton) and 3 losses (Wofford, @South Carolina, @College of Charleston)

Last season, the Chanticleers finished below .500 for the first time since 2012-13. And with four winnable home games and two victory opportunities at Horizon favorite Northern Kentucky‘s exempt event, Cliff Ellis’ squad should be able to record six non-conference wins for the second straight year. Other than the game against the Norse, Coastal’s three in-state road contests are the matchups most likely to give them problems before Sun Belt play tips off.

264. Little Rock Trojans

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Central Arkansas) and 4 wins (@Memphis, @Central Arkansas, @Bradley, @Sam Houston State)

While the Trojans’ first season without Chris Beard was difficult enough, as the 2016 Sun Belt champs slipped to a 15-17 mark, the second was even worse, as Wes Flanagan was relieved of his duties after posting a 7-25 record. Former pro Darrell Walker replaced Flanagan in Little Rock and his first non-conference schedule is manageable, largely because the Trojans will host the subregional of the Las Vegas Holiday Invitational, with that event featuring a new D1 team and two bottom 20 programs. While there are six road contests lined up, only the three Power 7 ones and the trip to Nevada are almost assuredly losses.

278. Troy Trojans

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Arkansas Pine Bluff (N)) and 3 losses (UAB, @Southern Miss., @Austin Peay)

The Trojans finished a game under .500 one season after qualifying for the NCAAs both overall and in non-conference play. The slate Phil Cunningham and his staff built for 2018-19 is heavy on the winnable home games and road tests. While there are only two power conference games on the schedule—Pittsburgh and Florida State, trips to A 10 favorite Saint Louis Billikens and a pair of C-USA contenders in WKU and UAB will also be stern challenges for Troy.

327, South Alabama Jaguars

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Mobile, New Orleans, Southern Miss.) and 1 loss (@Tulane)

Coming off a 14-18 record and .500 non-conference mark, the Jaguars have a home-heavy slate in Richie Riley’s first season in charge, including a round-robin event that South Alabama could possibly sweep. The Jags have two of the better home games in the conference, with both Tulane and Richmond visiting the Mitchell Center this fall. Meanwhile, South Alabama’s two roughest road trips are to SEC arenas, those of Auburn and Texas A&M.

331. Texas State Bobcats

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (UTRGV, Texas A&M Corpus Christi, @Rice) and 3 losses (@Air Force, UTSA, @Houston Baptist)

Danny Kaspar’s Bobcats went 15-18 last season, meaning 2016-17’s 22-14 record is the only winning mark he’s posted in five seasons in charge in San Marcos. A nine-game losing streak to close the regular season ruined what had been a 14-8 start, including a 7-6 non-conference record. And with five home games and a weak Portland-hosted round-robin event, Texas State might be able to get itself going a little more quickly this season. Note that the Bobcats’ trip to Arkansas is their lone non-league game scheduled against a team ranked in the top 200.

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