For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

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Ranking The Teams

While the Pac-12 sent three teams to the NCAAs and another five to the NIT, it was not a vintage season for the conference—with the contrast particularly stark after successful 2016 and 2017 campaigns. No Pac-12 team managed to win an NCAA game, with both Arizona State and UCLA losing in the First Four, while USC was snubbed on Selection Sunday. And last season’s struggles are evident in the four-year ranking, where only USC, ASU, Washington, and Oregon State saw their standing improve when compared to a season ago.

KenPom projects that fully two-thirds of the Pac-12 will under-perform their four-year rankings this season, most notably preseason favorites Oregon and UCLA and perennial power Arizona—note that the Wildcats are forecast to be 63 spots worse than their recent history. On the plus side, Washington, an at-large contender for much of last season, should improve by more than 50 places, while Arizona State could threaten the top 50.

Ranking The Schedules

Overall, the Pac-12’s non-conference schedules improved when compared to those of a season ago, even if there are fewer top 50 schedules out there (two in most categories, contrasting with the three of a season ago). One of the most noteworthy jumps is courtesy of Oregon, in the top 100 this year after being in the bottom 50 in 2017-18. Half of the league has a super average ranking in the top 100, with USC joining these teams in the top 150.

Note: The number of asterisks (*) represent the number of pending games on a team’s schedule.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

Just three Pac-12 teams over-scheduled this season, with at-large contenders Arizona State and Washington the two most notable. However, the Sun Devils’ slate barely qualifies, as its just three slots better than their four-year ranking, Colorado and Utah are the two most disappointing under-schedulers, though the Utes typically fall within this category.

This season, the Pac-12 will play more true road games and non-Power 7 road games than any other power league—a jump of nine contests in the former category and three in the latter. In fact, just a little more than half of the Pac-12’s non-conference road games will feature opposition from mid-major conferences.

Three of those mid-major leagues feature at the top of the table above, with the WCC joining last season’s leader, the Big West, in a tie at the top. The Big Sky, in second place a season ago, drops to fourth, with the Mountain West remaining in third. For the second year in a row, the SEC rounds out the top five—somewhat surprisingly, considering how rarely the two league meet on the gridiron. The Patriot League is the only Division I conference that doesn’t have a set game with a Pac-12 squad, though Bucknell could meet Colorado for a Bison-Buffaloes matchup in the Diamond Head Classic.

USC will face three Big 12 teams during November and December, while both Cal and Colorado have a trio of Mountain West squad on their schedules. Arizona State, meanwhile, plays three SEC clubs, and both the Golden Bears and Washington take on the same number of WCC outfits. In terms of single opponents, Long Beach State appears on five Pac-12 schedules, with both San Diego and Santa Clara popping up four times.

To rack up quality wins during this non-conference season, Pac-12 teams are going to have to do real work away from home. The four-year ranking suggests that just eight Pac-12 non-league home games will feature top 75 opponents, while 28 such matchups are set for either road or neutral environments, with a further 23 possibilities floating around in exempt events.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

9. Stanford Cardinal

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (San Francisco) and 6 losses (Eastern Washington, North Carolina, Florida (N), Portland State (N), @Long Beach State, Kansas (N))

Had the Cardinal not struggled to a 6-7 non-conference mark a season ago, including an 0-3 record in the Phil Knight Invitational, their NIT bid might have turned into an NCAA one. And for the third season in a row under Jerod Haase, Stanford will be challenged early and often, particularly away from Maples Pavilion. Sure, the Cardinal will play a pair of mid-majors (UNCW and San Francisco) on the road, but they’ll also face national title contenders Kansas and North Carolina in their buildings. Plus, Stanford’s exempt tournament, the Battle 4 Atlantis, will provide a trio of challenges over Thanksgiving week. Winning the quarterfinal against Wisconsin could be quite important for the Cardinal’s March hopes.

38. UCLA Bruins

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 0 wins and 1 loss (Cincinnati)

After the Bruins followed up 2017’s Pac-12 title challenge and NCAA 3 seed with a First Four loss to St. Bonaventure, the heat’s been (again) turned up on Steve Alford heading into his sixth year in charge in Westwood. And even though UCLA’s non-conference slate is rather home-heavy, there are some serious potential trouble spots lurking. For starters, the Bruins look like the fourth-best team lined up for the Las Vegas Invitational. And while Notre Dame might not be at their strongest when they visit Pauley Pavilion, Ohio State will provide a stern challenge at the CBS Sports Classic in Chicago and Cincinnati will have a second straight victory over the Bruins’ in their sights when Alford’s club heads to the renovated Fifth Third Arena.

56. Arizona Wildcats

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Alabama, UConn) and 0 losses

Not only are the Wildcats coming off a tumultuous season that ended with a First Round loss to Buffalo, but Sean Miller’s squad definitely qualifies for the “rebuilding” category heading into 2018-19. While the early home schedule is forgiving, the final four games, highlighted by a visit from Baylor, could give Arizona real trouble. But that’s nothing compared to what awaits in Lahaina, where the Cats will have to deal with perhaps the most-loaded Maui Invitational field ever. As for the two road games, both Alabama and UConn could be capable of avenging last season’s defeats at McKale.

67. Arizona State Sun Devils

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (San Francisco, @Kansas, Vanderbilt)

This schedule provides Bobby Hurley’s club with the ability to build a safety net for NCAA selection, should the Sun Devils collapse late for the second consecutive season. Vanderbilt should improve enough to rate as Arizona State’s most difficult road opponent, while Mississippi State looks like the best team the Sun Devils will meet in Vegas at the Main Event. Facing Nevada in Los Angeles looks like a very difficult matchup, while Kansas’ trip to Tempe could see the Jayhawks ranked at the top of the polls.

72. Washington Huskies

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Eastern Washington, Seattle) and 2 losses (Virginia Tech (N), Gonzaga)

Mike Hopkins’ first season in Seattle was an unreserved success, with the Huskies earning at-large consideration, 21 wins, and an NIT bid. But if Washington is going to make the jump to earning an NCAA bid, it’s going to have to win away from Seattle early in the season (the opener against WKU excepted). That’s because the Huskies will encounter a pair of 2018 teams (Auburn and Gonzaga) in true road games and another, a Virginia Tech squad that topped UW in New York last November, in Atlantic City. Plus, there’s the re-arranged Vancouver Showcase, which presents the Dawgs with three games in British Columbia, with the middle contest against Texas A&M shaping up to be the most difficult.

82. Oregon Ducks

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Texas Southern, Portland State) and 1 loss (Boise State)

As is the theme in the Pac-12 this season, the league favorite Ducks, an NIT qualifier a season ago, will face their most non-conference significant challenges away from campus. For starters, Oregon will hope to play Iowa and Syracuse in the 2K event in New York, with UConn very much a question mark, while Dana Altman’s team will start a series with Baylor in Waco. That matchup with the Bears isn’t the only road challenge the Ducks will encounter either, as they’ll visit 2018 NCAA squad Houston and Boise State, though the latter matchup is part of a rare in-season home-and-home series.

143. USC Trojans

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Santa Clara) and 2 losses (@Vanderbilt, Oklahoma (N))

In 2018, Andy Enfield’s Trojans just missed qualifying for their third straight NCAA Tournament, due in no small part to four non-conference losses, three of which came during a late November/early December swoon. Even though USC plays just one true road game (against Santa Clara of all teams), this slate has some real potential. The two best home games, against Vanderbilt and Nevada, feature at-large contenders, while TCU will challenge the Trojans at Staples Center. And while USC’s return match against Oklahoma in Tulsa is a question mark, the semifinal against Texas Tech in the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City will be vital for the Trojans’ hopes. Enfield would surely prefer a win and likely final matchup with Nebraska than a meeting with Missouri State.

182. Utah Utes

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Mississippi Valley State, Hawai’i) and 1 loss (@BYU)

Larry Krystkowiak’s Utes will look to build upon last season’s appearance in the NIT final, but this is yet another Pac-12 schedule where the bulk of the quality is on the road. Although Utah will entertain Nevada (and Tulsa) at the Huntsman Center, the other four visitors all rank among the worst in Division I, with two of the three worst returning teams in the four-year ranking on the slate. As for the off-campus games, while no one expects the Utes to win at Kentucky, they should be able to at least reach the final of the Wooden Legacy. Meanwhile, the game at Minnesota and Beehive Classic showdown with BYU should both have real March implications.

192. California Golden Bears

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (@San Diego State) and 3 losses (VCU (N), Saint Mary’s, @Seattle)

The Golden Bears won just eight times in Wyking Jones’ first season—with six of those victories coming before Pac-12 play tipped off. And with this schedule, Cal fans had better hope their team sweeps the six sub-200 teams visiting Haas Pavilion this November and December because wins will be hard to come by otherwise. And that’s with Saint Mary’s reloading and Fresno State playing its first season under a new coach.

270. Oregon State Beavers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Long Beach State, Eastern Kentucky, Saint Louis (N)) and 3 losses (Wyoming, Long Beach State (N), @Kent State)

While the Beavers rebounded from 2016-17’s five-win campaign to finish right at .500 a season ago, Wayne Tinkle and his son Tres will hope for better this year. Improving upon last season’s 8-4 non-conference mark, including OSU’s 1-2 finish at the AdvoCare Invitational is paramount. And if things break right, the Beavers should be able to win at least two games at this season’s exempt tourney, the Paradise Jam. Otherwise, the tests are few and far between on this schedule, outside of the contest against Texas A&M in Portland and road games against Saint Louis, the A 10 favorite, and Long Beach State, 2-1 against Oregon State over the past two seasons.

290. Colorado Buffaloes

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Drake (N), Air Force, New Mexico) and 2 losses (@Colorado State, San Diego)

Since 2016’s NCAA bid, Tad Boyle’s Buffaloes have gone 36-30 in the two subsequent seasons. A disappointing 8-4 start knocked Colorado to the edge of at-large contention early and even if they improve upon that mark this time, they’re going to have a hard time earning respect with this schedule. While it doesn’t include the copious contests against sub-300 teams found on Utah’s slate, just one team on this schedule ranks in the top 50 of the four-year ranking. And that’s TCU, who the Buffs could meet on the final day of the Diamond Head Classic.

346. Washington State Cougars

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Seattle) and 1 loss (@Idaho)

Not only has Ernie Kent failed to break even just once in his four seasons in Pullman, but the Cougars have yet to win more than 13 games during his tenure. This non-conference slate, featuring just one game against a top 100 opponent (two if Wazzu happens to meet New Mexico State for a second time in Las Vegas), and seven teams in the bottom 100 is clearly designed to get the Cougars some early wins. But it just might not prepare them all that well for Pac-12 play, even if the conference might go through a down season.

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