For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

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Ranking The Teams

Even though the SWAC has two of the nation’s three worst teams in the four-year ranking—and three of the bottom 10—the conference still jumped the MEAC to escape the Division I basement. While the MEAC has two top 300 teams when compared to the SWAC’s one, Texas Southern’s position of 224th is 24 spots higher than MEAC leader N.C. Central‘s. Plus, of the MEAC’s 13 current members, four rank among the bottom 10.

Still, these team scores reflect the SWAC’s struggles as a whole. Texas Southern’s 15 seed in 2015 is the only time the conference’s NCAA Tournament representative escaped the 16 line over the past 10 seasons. That Tiger team was also one of just three SWAC champs to avoid Dayton in the last decade, joining 2017’s TSU squad and Southern’s 2014 club.

This preseason’s KenPom projections paint a bleak picture for the SWAC’s national prospects. While half of the league is projected to improve upon its four-year ranking, every one of those teams is still forecast to finish outside of the top 300. Making matters worse, SWAC standard bearer Texas Southern’s projected ranking is more than 50 spots lower than its four-year performance, while Jackson State and Southern are forecast to slip down to the very depths of Division I.

Ranking The Schedules

Last season, the SWAC ranked at the top nationally in each scheduling category. But in 2018-19, the conference has taken a very small step back, dropping down to third in two categories and in the final national average ranking. In 2017, the conference had five schedules that were consistently in the top 50, with three in the top 10. Both of those numbers have dropped to just two—Texas Southern and Southern—this time around.

Note: The number of asterisks (*) represent the number of pending games on a team’s schedule.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

Every single SWAC team over-scheduled this season, as you’d expect with the number of road games against quality opponents and the teams’ collectively poor four-year rankings. Alabama A&M was seven spots away from condemning each team to a gap of 100 spots or more. Half the league over-scheduled by a minimum of 200 spots. That’s a formula for long Novembers and Decembers and a brutal March matchup.

While the SWAC’s total number of non-conference home games rose by seven when compared to last season’s paltry total of 18, that’s due to a complementary jump in the total of non-D1 opponents—which jumped from 10 to 17. On the flip side, SWAC teams are playing fewer Power 7 buy games, as that total dropped by an average of one per team when compared to last season.

Last season, non-D1 opponents edged the American Athletic Conference to top this table, 10 to 9. But with those added seven non-D1 games, that collective now blows the 32 Division I conferences out of the water. Last season, SWAC members scheduled games against 27 leagues—a number that’s been reduced by one in 2018-19.

Baylor, D1 newcomer Cal Baptist, Iowa State, San Diego State, and Santa Clara all scheduled three SWAC opponents, while non-D1 Champion Christian will visit three conference arenas this fall.

This table starkly illustrates the SWAC’s scheduling difficulties. Just one of the SWAC’s eight home Division I non-conference games even qualifies for Quad 3 according to the four-year rankings, while league members will play a whopping 51 Quad 1 and 2 road games during November and December. That’s a formula for a lot of losing and a very low seed during March Madness.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

1. Texas Southern Tigers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 0 wins and 3 losses (@Gonzaga, @Oregon, @Baylor)

After playing 51 straight non-conference games away from home, the Tigers will welcome Huston-Tillotson to the HP&E Center on November 29th for their first home non-league game in four years and one day—November 28, 2014’s win over Lamar. But with 11 true road games, including seven against Power 7 opponents and another against Gonzaga, who is at that level for all intents and purposes, former LSU coach Johnny Jones will try to navigate Texas Southern through a non-conference schedule the man he replaces, Mike Davis, would surely approve of.

8. Southern Jaguars

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Wiley) and 1 loss (@Baylor)

Interim coach Morris Scott left the Jaguars after a single 15-18 season, with former Morehead State coach and Kentucky Unforgettable Sean Woods replacing him—a controversial choice given the player mistreatment allegations that forced him out of the Eagles’ job. Southern will be more than challenged by Woods’ first schedule, which not only sees them visit both Baylor and George Mason as part of the Emerald Coast Classic, but also Louisville as one of the Cardinals’ two NIT Season Tip-Off home games. But those won’t be the only challenges on this schedule, as the Jaguars open their non-conference slate with Alabama and close it at Marquette.

76. Alabama State Hornets

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 0 wins and 3 losses (@Iowa, @South Dakota State, Liberty (N))

Lewis Jackson’s Hornets won eight a season ago—and like many SWAC teams, all of those wins came during league play. An 0-12 non-league record won’t be repeated this season, since Alabama State is skipping an exempt event and only playing 11 non-conference games. However, the Hornets will still play in a tournament, as they’ll face Liberty in the semifinals of the St. Pete Shootout in Florida in December—State lost to the Flames in the third-place game of the similar New Orleans Shootout last year.

Curiously, Alabama State will make two separate trips to Iowa in November to play Iowa State and Iowa.

84. Arkansas Pine Bluff Golden Lions

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 0 wins and 2 losses (Troy (N), @Cincinnati)

While the Golden Lions will play just one home non-conference game, they will also at least get to stay close to home for their exempt event, as the Las Vegas Holiday Invitational’s visitors’ bracket is set for Little Rock, just about an hour north of campus. Pine Bluff also has the SWAC Player of the Year, Martaveous McKnight, which could be all the difference when conference play begins. Before that, however, UAPB may take its lumps. But with a non-D1 home game and Holiday Invitational semifinal against D1 newcomer Cal Baptist (or possible second day matchup with Howard at the Stephens Center), the Golden Lions should find the win column before conference season starts—something that didn’t happen last year.

98. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 0 wins and 4 losses (@Utah, @Utah State, Southeastern Louisiana (N), @Grand Canyon)

In Andre Payne’s four seasons in charge in Itta Bena, the Delta Devils have yet to record a double-digit win total. They’ve also won just one non-conference game—a November 29, 2015 win over North Carolina A&T played in Corpus Christi, Texas. With MVSU playing a non-D1 home game against Rust, what’s currently a 46-game non-conference losing streak should end, possibly at 53 games. A November 20th home contest against Southeastern Louisiana, part of the Hall of Fame Classic, will be an early chance at stopping the skid.

With a second consecutive Utah swing and a December Santa Clara-Hawai’i-Grand Canyon trip, Mississippi Valley State is yet another SWAC squad that will rack up the air miles.

119. Prairie View A&M Panthers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: N/A

Byron Smith’s Panthers, winners of 16 a season ago, turned over their entire non-conference schedule from a season ago. But Prairie View will struggle to match last season’s three non-SWAC wins. Why? The Panthers won both of their games in the MGM Resorts Main Event Middleweight Bracket to claim the trophy in Las Vegas, and they swap that event out for Georgia Tech’s round-robin MTE. And while that field is remarkably weak for an exempt tournament, the Panthers must play all four of their games on the road.

155. Jackson State Tigers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Millsaps, Fisk) and 3 losses (@St. Bonaventure, @ULM, @Central Michigan)

The Tigers, who went 9-9 in SWAC play last season, could match last season’s non-conference win total of three, thanks to a pair of non-D1 home games and a likely matchup with WAC struggler Chicago State on the second day of the Cayman Islands Classic subregional at ETSU. Otherwise, Wayne Brent’s squad had better get used to the Pacific Time Zone, as Jackson State will play four games in California in late November and early December.

158. Grambling State Tigers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (GSU) 1 win (@Southeastern Louisiana) and 1 loss (@ULM)

The Tigers went 17-14 in Donte Jackson’s first season, winning the SWAC regular season title, though APR sanctions kept them out of the postseason. Grambling State picked up four non-conference wins along the way, including a pair over teams that finished in KenPom’s top 200—Southeastern Louisiana and Georgia Tech (in the Yellow Jackets’ exempt event). With the Lions and three non-D1 opponents visiting the Assembly Center, a team pegged by some as the SWAC favorite (in a year when they can actually make it to March Madness) could equal last season’s non-conference win total. But eight road games, including doozies against Wyoming, Loyola Chicago (both part of the Fort Myers Tip-Off), LSU, UCF, and Wisconsin, mean Grambling will probably need to win its second game in the Tip-Off subregional at Niagara to get to five.

186. Alcorn State Braves

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (Alc) 3 wins (Rust, Fisk, Blue Mountain) and 1 loss (@Vanderbilt)

The Braves won four non-conference games last season, but didn’t record a Division I win until they won at Mississippi Valley State five games into SWAC play. With four non-D1 home games and four Power 7 road games, including trips to Vanderbilt (as part of the Commodores’ exempt event) and Mississippi State, it could be a similar story for Alcorn in the opening weeks of Montez Robinson’s fourth season at the helm.

259. Alabama A&M Bulldogs

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (AA&M) 0 wins and 3 losses (@Samford, @Austin Peay, @UAB)

After one season and just three wins, all in conference play, Donnie Marsh is out, replaced by former Bulldog assistant Dylan Howard. While Alabama A&M’s schedule accounts for three of the SWAC’s eight Division I non-conference home games, the Bulldogs will still hit the road for 11 matchups (A&M will play an extra game, as permitted due to the trip to Hawai’i, including away games against Houston and BYU as part of an exempt event and a pair of games in Atlantic City as part of a December tournament.

Note that Alabama A&M will be the only team ineligible for the NCAA Tournament this season due to Academic Progress Rate penalties.

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