For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

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Ranking The Teams

If you’re the Patriot League’s NCAA Tournament rep and your name isn’t “Bucknell,” there’s a good chance you’re going to find yourself on line 15 (2012 Lehigh, 2014 American) or 16 (2010 Lehigh, 2015 Lafayette, 2016 Holy Cross). Other than the Bison, the only league champ to earn a seed higher than 15 in the past 10 seasons was American’s 14th-seeded outfit of 2009.

With the Patriot League dropping two places in the four-year ranking of the 32 Division I conferences, thanks to the sudden presence of eight teams outside of the top 200 and three outside of the top 300 (compared to just one a season ago), a 15 or 16 is likely the fate for the conference’s tourney entrant, particularly if it’s a surprise lower-seeded winner.

And that low seeding becomes a stronger possibility if KenPom’s preseason projections turn out to be accurate. The teams expected to outperform their recent histories this season are doing so from a point of historical ineptitude, while conference heavyweight Bucknell is projected to be nearly 100 places worse than its four-year ranking.

Ranking The Schedules

Last season, the Patriot League ranked in the upper half of three of the four scheduling categories. But with a whopping five conference members boasting schedules ranking in the bottom 50 across the board, the league ranks near the bottom of Division I in 2018-19. The fact that both Bucknell and Lehigh have schedules that rank in the top 50 of the national average can’t overcome the teams that are taking it a bit easier in what’s likely to be a down season.

Note: The number of asterisks (*) represent the number of pending games on a team’s schedule.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

For the second season in a row, the Patriot League falls near the middle of Division I in terms of the scheduling gap, with exactly half of the league overdoing things and the other half under-scheduling. Colgate did the best job of matching its slate to its recent performances, while Bucknell, Holy Cross, and Lehigh were feeling optimistic. Navy, BU, and Army all under-scheduled by between 54 and 116 spots.

The average Patriot League team will play half of a home game more than they did in 2017-18, when the 10 conference members only had 40 home games total on their non-conference slates. As usual, Navy’s Veterans Classic game, this time against in-state rival Maryland, is the Patriot’s only Power 7 home contest. Additionally, league members will, in aggregate, play one fewer Power 7 road contest in 2017-18 and three fewer home games against non-D1 opponents.

The MAAC and America East swapped places at the top of the “games by conference” ranking, with the NEC and Ivy switching places in third and fourth. As for the fifth-placed A 10, its two additional games against Patriot opponents allowed it to jump into the top five. It replaces the ACC, which dropped into a tie for ninth with the ASUN, as the power conference halved its number of Patriot League contests when compared to a season ago. A whopping 10 conferences aren’t scheduled to meet Patriot League squads this season, compared to 12 a season ago, though the Big West, Missouri Valley, and Pac-12 could feature in exempt tournaments.

Three teams from both the MAAC (Marist, Monmouth, and Siena) and NEC (Fairleigh Dickinson, Mount St. Mary’s, and Sacred Heart); two from the America East (Binghamton and UMass Lowell), and one from the Ivy (Cornell) appear on three Patriot schedules. Boston University will meet four of its former America East mates this season and a trio of CAA squads (two of whom also used to be in the America East). Bucknell, meanwhile, will play three teams from both the A 10 and MAAC. Army West Point, Colgate, Holy Cross, and Lehigh will join the Bison in playing a trio of MAAC opponents, while American and Lafayette will encounter three teams from NEC apiece.

While the Patriot League will play a total of five more non-conference home games this season, most of those games won’t be high-quality ones. Navy’s visit from Maryland is the only Quad 1 or 2 home win opportunity out there this fall, at least according to the four-year ranking, while 38 of the 45 total games feature a Quad 4 opportunity or a non-D1 opponent. On the other hand, league members will play 25 top 100 teams on the road and another 23 squads ranked in the second 100.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

16. Bucknell Bison

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Vermont, La Salle) and 2 losses (@Monmouth, @Northeastern)

Nathan Davis sure didn’t schedule like he’s expecting the Bison to take a major step back from last season’s 25-10 record and NCAA 13 seed. Not only will Bucknell welcome CAA favorite Northeastern to Sojka Pavilion, but the Bison will test themselves with trips to mid-major powers Saint Mary’s, St. Bonaventure, and Vermont, along with a Power 7 game at Ohio State and the possibility of two more at the Diamond Head Classic over Christmas week in O’ahu. This slate should more than adequately prepare the Bison for their push to extend their Patriot League regular season title streak to five.

47. Lehigh Mountain Hawks

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (@Marist, Siena, @Princeton, Mount St. Mary’s) and 3 losses (Monmouth, Yale, @St. Francis (Pa.))

Even though the Mountain Hawks are skipping an exempt event after a 16-14 2017-18 campaign, this schedule, featuring only two teams from outside of the four-year ranking’s top 250, is plenty difficult enough. Brett Reed’s squad will play a pair of Ivy contenders and three MAAC squads, along with a trio of 2018 NCAA squads, all on the road.

131. Holy Cross Crusaders

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@Sacred Heart, Harvard) and 6 losses (@Rhode Island, @Fairleigh Dickinson, Albany, @UMass, Iona, @Siena)

The Crusaders have yet to post a winning record in three seasons under Bill Carmody, even though they claimed the Patriot League’s NCAA bid in 2016. Based on this schedule, Holy Cross will probably need to make a run through the Patriot League to finally get back over .500. The road games, highlighted by trips to 2018 tournament qualifiers Michigan, Providence, and Iona, along with another to Ivy favorite Harvard, are all likely losses, while the two games the Crusaders will play at the Mohegan Sun in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off are a crapshoot.

237. Colgate Raiders

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Cornell, Columbia, NJIT) and 3 losses (@Binghamton, @Marist, @Syracuse)

Other than for a pair of games in Florida, the Raiders will remain in the Mid-Atlantic for the entirety of the their non-conference schedule. Even with road games against Penn State, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse, this regional focus should help Matt Langel’s team build on last season’s 19 wins. Curiously, Colgate’s exempt event features three Division I teams it played last season, with the Raiders recording a 2-1 record in those matchups.

247. Loyola (Md.) Greyhounds

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Drexel (N) and 5 losses (Towson, @UMass Lowell, @Dartmouth, @Mount St. Mary’s, Binghamton)

The Greyhounds have a new coach after G.G. Smith posted a 9-22 record in his final season, but don’t expect Tavaras Hardy to work miracles with this schedule—despite the pedestrian ranking. That’s because the Greyhounds will play just three non-conference home games, while they’ll play a quartet of Power 7 opponents and travel to Detroit Mercy for the Legends Classic subregional. Loyola will take on the host Titans, who also have a new coach in former Indiana, UAB, and Texas Southern boss Mike Davis, in the semifinals.

320. Army West Point Black Knights

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (@Marist, Marist (N), Air Force (N)) and 2 losses (@Niagara, @Binghamton)

Jimmy Allen has posted a pair of 13-win campaigns during his short tenure in West Point. The Black Knights could put themselves well on the way to a winning record thanks to non-conference slate, which features just a single game against a team ranked outside of the top 200. That’s Duke, coached by alum Mike Krzyzewski, who Army West Point will meet at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Veterans Day. Even the Black Knights’ exempt event, hosted by Brown, features a pair of sub-300 teams.

321. Boston University Terriers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@New Hampshire, @Bethune-Cookman) and 4 losses (Northeastern, Albany, @UMass Lowell, Elon)

In 2017-18, the Terriers suffered only their second losing season in Joe Jones’ seven seasons in charge, though BU fell just a game below the .500 mark. The number of road games on this non-conference slate is the biggest reason why the Terriers may not be able to use it jumpstart their record this time around. While Vermont, who visits Case Gym, is the highest-ranked team on this slate, archrival Northeastern, the CAA favorite, might be the most-difficult game on it, especially with the canine pair meeting at Matthews Arena on Opening Night.

336. Lafayette Leopards

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Quinnipiac) and 5 losses (@Princeton, Saint Peter’s, Penn, @Sacred Heart, @Cornell)

Since winning 20 and reaching the NCAAs in 2014-15, Fran O’Hanlon’s squad has won a total of just 25 games. This slate, featuring just two games against teams ranked in the top 150 of the four-year table, and a single Power 7 road contest, at UConn, should help boost the win total. Of course, avoiding a six-game losing streak, like the one the Leopards opened last season with, would provide an even bigger assist.

341. American University Eagles

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (@New Hampshire, VMI, Howard) and 4 losses (@Wagner, @St. Francis (Pa.), @Maryland Eastern Shore, Mount St. Mary’s)

After posting winning records in his first two seasons in charge in the Nation’s Capital, Mike Brennan’s Eagles have struggled mightily—winning just 26 total games over the last three seasons, and only a half-dozen in 2017-18. In an effort to improve upon those results, the Eagles 2018-19 non-conference slate sees them leave the DMV just once—and that’s for their lone game against a Power 7/Top 100 opponent—Northwestern.

345. Navy Midshipmen

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (@Bryant, Delaware, Morgan State, Coppin State) and 1 loss (Lipscomb)

While the Midshipmen have the Patriot League’s best home game—that Veterans Classic meeting with Maryland—they also have the weakest non-conference slate in the league. That’s thanks to a trio of sub-300 contests and just two top 100 contests, with the game against the Terps being complemented by a road contest against Old Dominion. With this slate, Ed DeChellis’ squad should find itself in position where a fourth straight record of .500 or better is attainable.

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