For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

Warning: Graphics and tables may not appear optimally when viewing on a mobile device.

Ranking The Teams

Going back 10 seasons, to 2008-09, there’s been one constant in a WAC that has totally overhauled its membership in the last decade—New Mexico State. And the Aggies, who have served as the WAC’s lone representative in six of the seven NCAA Tournaments since Utah State‘s run of dominance ended in 2011, have just about kept the conference from falling to laughingstock status singlehandedly.

But the conference seems to be improving overall—albeit slowly. Sure, Chicago State is still a program in turmoil, UMKC may be heading toward the door—while Cal State Bakersfield has already planned its departure, and UT Rio Grande Valley also has room for improvement. However, the rest of the conference, led by Grand Canyon and Utah Valley in particular, has generally been on the upswing (even if the Antelopes and Bakersfield basically swapped places in the four-year ranking when compared to last season). And if these trends continue, the WAC champion should remain in position to consistently avoid the 16 seed line, while jumping up to lines 12 and 13 with regularity, particularly in the case of NMSU.

Keep in mind that Cal Baptist will not have a four-year raking or scheduling gap measurement as the Lancers are in their first transitional D1 season.

Based on KenPom’s preseason projections, it’s not going to be a vintage year for the WAC, as three of the conference’s four best teams are expected to decline a bit, relative to the four-year average. Meanwhile, the three teams projected to improve aren’t expected to do so by all that much. That might have negative implications for the league nationally.

Ranking The Schedules

Last season, Chicago State owned a top 30 schedule, at a minimum, in all four categories, while New Mexico State was ranked in the top 100 in three of them. Those slates helped push the WAC toward the upper-third of Division I in the majority of the schedule rankings, despite the presence of a pair of bottom 50 slates. This time, the league again has two terrible slates, but Chicago State and Utah Valley are the only non-conference schedules that approach the top 100. That drops the WAC’s overall non-conference schedule strength into the bottom quarter of Division I in two of the four categories, with the league ranking just above the final quartile in the other two categories.

Note: The number of asterisks (*) represent the number of pending games on a team’s schedule.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

Despite the lack of scheduling ambition, the majority of the WAC’s returning Division I members over-scheduled this season, with Chicago State not surprisingly leading the way. Unfortunately, three of the conference’s best teams—Grand Canyon, New Mexico State, and Seattle—under-scheduled relative to their four-year rankings. That could be problematic for the Antelopes and Aggies come March, provided they earn the WAC auto bid.

With the WAC’s membership growing by one this season, the league slate expanded to 16 games from 14. In turn, the conference’s total number of non-conference home games, non-D1 opponents scheduled, and Power 7 road games all declined. Note that both UTRGV and New Mexico State will welcome power conference teams to their home arenas this season. Only Seattle did so in 2017.

Thanks to the start of a challenge series with the Summit League, that conference leapt to the top of this table—at least in terms of Division I loops—with 13 games in 2018-19, compared to just two a season ago. As expected, Western and Southwestern conferences dominate this list, with four East Coast conferences and the SEC (which played three WAC teams a season ago) absent.

Surprisingly, Central Michigan is the only Division I team that will play three WAC opponents during non-conference play. On the other hand, UTRGV will play four games against squads from the geographically-convenient Southland, Cal Baptist will play three Big West outfits, and Cal State Bakersfield meets a trio of Big Sky opponents.

With New Mexico State welcoming Saint Mary’s to the Pan American Center and Oklahoma headed to Edinburg, Texas, the WAC actually has two home games against top 30 teams (according to the four-year rankings) this season—out of three top 100 home games overall. However, those contests are the exception rather than the rule, as 53 of the WAC’s 60 non-conference home contests feature either a team that qualifies for Quad 4 or a non-D1 opponent. On the other hand, 34 of the 55 true road games for WAC squads will feature a Quad 1 or 2 team, with 27 of those featuring top 100 opposition. And this season’s crop of exempt tournaments won’t give conference members many chances against top 100 teams on neutral floors—only two are currently guaranteed and one of those is NMSU’s game against Kansas in Kansas City—a virtual road game for the Aggies.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net, except for Cal Baptist (CBULancers.com).

100. Utah Valley Wolverines

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (@Idaho State, @North Dakota, Weber State, @Sam Houston State) and 1 loss (BYU)

Mark Pope has seen his Wolverines improve from a 12-win outfit in 2015-16 to a 23-victory crew that earned a CBI berth a season ago. A solid 11-5 non-league mark built a strong foundation for Utah Valley, even if there wasn’t a win over BYU as there was in 2016. UVU will again be sternly tested away from home, thanks to road games against the Cougars, Saint Mary’s, Utah State, and Arizona, along with a tricky Middleweight Bracket at the MGM Resorts Main Event. That tournament sees the Wolverines meet three-time defending MAAC Tournament champ Iona in the semifinals.

107. Chicago State Cougars

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (East-West) and 4 losses (@Notre Dame, Northern Illinois, @Northwestern, Bradley)

The Cougars represent a university that’s fighting for survival, which is probably why it took nearly the entire offseason for them to replace Tracy Dildy after a 3-29 campaign. But Chicago State lined up a prominent name in Windy City basketball—Lance Irvin—to roam the sidelines. And he’ll need to employ every trick in the book to keep the Cougars motivated through what’s likely to be a long non-conference portion of the season. Amazingly, CSU will leave the Midwest just once during this slate—to play two games in Johnson City, Tennessee for the Cayman Islands Classic Mainland event.

115. Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Idaho (N), Idaho) and 1 loss (Central Michigan (N))

The Roadrunners followed up their NIT semifinal appearance by crashing to earth—dropping from 25 wins to just 12. And Rod Barnes’ team didn’t even play too badly during November and December—going 7-8 in non-league play, recording a pair of wins over Idaho and another over Georgia Southern. Oddly enough, Bakersfield will meet Central Michigan, the team that defeated it in the last-ever Great Alaska Shootout final, in the first-ever game at the men’s version of the Junkanoo Jam in the Bahamas. That excursion and road trips to Gonzaga, TCU, and USC mean the Roadrunners will hard pressed to improve upon last season’s non-league record.

128. UMKC Kangaroos

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (UMKC) 1 win (Avila) and 4 losses (Loyola Chicago, South Dakota, Central Michigan, South Dakota State)

Kareem Richardson’s Roos followed up 2016-17’s 18-17 campaign with an eight-victory decline, including a poor 5-12 mark in non-league contests. Making matters worse—UMKC has to play return games against a quartet teams that defeated them in Kansas City last fall.

205. UTRGV Vaqueros

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 5 wins (@Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, @Rice, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, UC Irvine, Wayland Baptist) and 3 losses (@Texas State, @Georgia Tech, UT Arlington)

Lew Hill’s squad quietly improved its win total from 10 to 15 in his second season in charge in Edinburg. Year three will be a new challenge—highlighted by a visit by Hill’s mentor, as Lon Kruger brings his Oklahoma club to the Bert Ogden Arena on November 9th. That contest is the highlight of the Vaqueros’ 10-game non-conference home slate. As for the road games, there aren’t any gimmes, even if Georgia Tech (the marquee team in UTRGV’s exempt event for the second straight year) and East Carolina will be among the worst the Power 7 have to offer this season.

239. Grand Canyon Antelopes

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Mississippi Valley State) and 2 losses (@Boise State, San Diego)

The Antelopes didn’t quite live up to the hype in their first NCAA Tournament-eligible season, even if they won 22 games and reached the WAC final. Dan Majerle’s squad will try again, with a marginally more difficult non-conference slate than what they encountered in 2017-18. That’s largely due to the road games, three contests at what should be a decent Wooden Legacy, and a marquee matchup with Nevada in downtown Phoenix.

275. New Mexico State Aggies

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (NMSU) 6 wins (New Mexico, Colorado State, UTEP, @UTEP, @New Mexico, Eastern New Mexico) and 2 losses (@Saint Mary’s, San Diego)

Not only did Chris Jans get the Aggies to the NCAA Tournament in his first season, NMSU improved its seeding by two lines over 2017’s 14. And based on this schedule, the Aggies should be able to equal that if they again win the WAC crown. Sure, the game in Kansas City against Kansas is the biggie, but this season’s series against New Mexico (under former coach Paul Weir) should have extra meaning with the Lobos expected to be improved. (As for the UTEP series, let’s wait a year or three.) Two mid-major powers—Saint Mary’s and North Dakota State visit Las Cruces, as does Washington State, a team New Mexico State could play twice, as they’re both in the Las Vegas Classic over Christmas week.

322. Cal Baptist Lancers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (CBU) N/A

With no top 50 squads and the possibility of meeting four sub-300 teams along the way, the Lancers’ first Division I schedule sees them dipping their collective toes in the water. Coming off a 28-6 season that ended in the Division II Elite Eight, this slate should see Rick Croy’s team pick up a few early wins.

335. Seattle Redhawks

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (SU) 3 wins (Puget Sound, Eastern Washington, Portland) and 3 losses (@Washington State, @Washington, California)

Jim Hayford’s first season in Seattle was successful, as the Redhawks earned 20 wins and CBI bid. However, with the reduced non-conference slate, they’ll be challenged to equal last season’s total of 11 wins outside of league play. And with three Pac-12 road games on the slate, that means Seattle will likely need to sweep its nine true home games and the two set for the Showare Center in Kent (as KeyArena is being transformed) to equal that total. Note that one of those games features an upset target in Washington State, expected to finish near the bottom of the Pac-12.

Be sure to follow @ChrisDobbertean on Twitter and to like Blogging the Bracket on Facebook.