For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

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Ranking The Teams

For the second season in a row, the American Athletic Conference ranks seventh nationally in the four-year ranking. Houston’s resurgence under Kelvin Sampson sees the Cougars cracking the top 50 this season—the league’s fourth such team, alongside Cincinnati, Wichita State, and SMU. But there is the feeling that the American could be doing better, particularly considering the sixth-placed Pac-12’s struggles. And not just the bottom three teams, doormats of Tulane, East Carolina, and USF, are to blame. A trio of traditionally strong programs—UConn, Memphis, and Temple—have all encountered hard times of late. In the case of the Huskies and Tigers, recent coaching changes could eliminate some recent stagnancy, while the Owls will be going through a transition of their own over the next two seasons.

Based on KenPom’s preseason projections, the majority of the American’s teams aren’t expected to deviate too far from their four-year rankings, but there are some particularly notable exceptions. UCF, predicted to win the conference by many publications, is expected to outperform its recent history by 45 places. However, traditional powers Cincinnati and Wichita State are expected to drop down to a range of the rankings typically occupied by bubble teams.

Ranking The Schedules

In 2017-18, the American Athletic Conference had a trio of teams ranked among the top 20 in most non-conference scheduling categories with South Florida and East Carolina at the opposite end of the table—with the Pirates ranked dead last nationally. Well, for the second season in a row, ECU ranks 351st. But thanks to the addition of two teams transitioning into Division I, the Pirates don’t rank last in 2018. However, the honor remains in-conference, as USF has claimed last place for the new season.

Making matters worse, ECU and USF are just two of the five league members rank in the bottom 50 nationally. And with just three American squads in the top 100, and none ranked as high as last season’s top performers, the conference ranks at or near the bottom of each category below.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

And with so many American members not challenging themselves this season, it’s no wonder that 10 of the 12 teams under-scheduled this year, with the four worst offenders all potential at-large teams. Half of the conference under-scheduled by 100 or more spots, with Tulane just barely missing that cut-off. If the American wants to be considered more seriously as a power conference in basketball, discrepancies like these need to be addressed more seriously.

The 12 members of the American will play just 19 true non-conference road games this season, a decline of five from a season ago. Interestingly, however, more than half of those games will take place in the home arenas of non-Power 7 teams. In 2017-18, American members also played 10 non-power road games, but that was out of a total of 24.

For the second season in a row, not a single non-D1 team features on an American schedule, outside of exhibitions.

The only conference in the top three of this table that returns from last season is the MEAC, with the Atlantic 10 and Conference USA replacing the Southland and SEC. Considering that so many American members spent time in one of those two conferences, those scheduling decisions make sense. The Big Sky is the only Division I conference absent from league schedules this season—the OVC and WCC went missing a season ago.

The presence of five A 10 squads on Temple’s schedule alone accounts for much of that conference’s increase. In terms of individual schools, though, Lamar, Oklahoma State, and Oral Roberts are the most common opponents, appearing three times each.

With the MEAC ranking among the top three conferences scheduled and the Southland and SWAC in the top 10, it’s no surprise that Quad 4 games dominate American home non-conference schedules this year. Still, the conference has 13 Quad 1 or 2 home games (using the four-year ranking as the guide) with 12 such games on the road. But American Athletic squads will have plenty of opportunities to bolster their profiles in neutral-site contests, particularly in exempt events. There are 14 set neutral-site matchups against teams in the top 100 and another 16 potential ones in the later rounds of tournament play.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net, except for Tulane (TulaneGreenWave.com).

44. Temple Owls

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (Tem) 3 wins (Saint Joseph’s, Drexel, @Penn) and 3 losses (@La Salle, Villanova, @Georgia)

This season will be Philadelphia legend Fran Dunphy’s final one on the Owls’ bench, with Temple legend (and current assistant) Aaron McKie set to take over as head coach after this season. Dunphy will hope his last campaign goes better than Temple’s inconsistent 2017-18 season—which started with high hopes after wins over Old Dominion and eventual NCAA teams Auburn and Clemson to claim the Charleston Classic title and ended with a 17-16 record after a first round NIT loss to Penn State. And more frustration could be in the cards with this schedule, which features the usual Big Five suspects, a Legends Classic semifinal reunion with former A 10 rival VCU, a pair of SEC games (at Missouri, Georgia in Philly), and a matchup against 2018 A 10 tournament champs Davidson in Atlantic City.

45. Wichita State Shockers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (WSU) 1 win (@Baylor) and 1 loss (Oklahoma)

While the Shockers immediately contended for the conference title upon their arrival, they didn’t quite live up to the ample preseason expectations surrounding them, with the NCAA First Round exit to Marshall resulting with the season ending with a thud. Gregg Marshall’s team is expected to take a step back in 2018-19, but lower expectations might not be a bad thing for Wichita State. Still, this schedule will force the younger Shockers to grow up fast, as they’ll play Providence and a trio of talented teams in the Charleston Classic right off the bat. Later in the fall, Baylor will visit Koch Arena, aiming to avenge last season’s loss in Waco, while the Shockers will try to knock off Oklahoma in Oklahoma City and VCU in Richmond.

91. Memphis Tigers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (UM) 1 win (Little Rock) and 2 losses (@UAB, LSU)

While the Tigers won 21 games last season, the program never felt stable with Tubby Smith making his frustrations known constantly. Now he’s at his alma mater, High Point, and to replace him, Memphis turned to one of its own favored sons, legendary player and talented high school coach Penny Hardaway. And there’s an air of familiarity to his first Tiger schedule, which features a trio of in-state opponents, including a visit from a Tennessee squad that could win the SEC, and the potential of two meetings with either LSU or UAB, a pair of scheduled opponents Memphis could meet on day three of the Advocare Invitational.

175. Tulsa Golden Hurricane

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (Tuls) 2 wins (Oral Roberts, Kansas State (N)) and 1 loss (@Oklahoma State)

While Frank Haith’s 2017-18 Golden Hurricane was unable to earn a surprise NCAA bid for the second time in three years, it did manage to get back over .500 after a 15-17 2016-17 campaign. Tulsa managed 19 wins despite an indifferent 7-5 non-conference record, that featured losses to Lamar and Illinois State (twice) along with a 1-2 mark against Big 12 foes. This time around, the Golden Hurricane welcome both Oklahoma State and Kansas State to Tulsa, while they hit the road for matchups with Utah and neighbors Oral Roberts. Tulsa also goes to Vegas to take on Nevada in the semifinals of the Las Vegas Holiday Invitational. But at least the second game of that tournament looks to be winnable, as does the Hall of Fame Holiday Showcase game in Connecticut against Dayton.

188. Cincinnati Bearcats

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (UC) 3 wins (Mississippi State, @UCLA, Arkansas Pine Bluff) and 1 loss (@Xavier)

Playing at Northern Kentucky last season while Fifth Third Arena was renovated, Cincinnati claimed both American Athletic championships and earned a No. 2 seed in the NCAAs, but an epic collapse against Nevada in the tournament’s second round left Mick Cronin’s Bearcats with a sour taste in their mouths. But Cincy returns home this year with the opportunity to reach similar heights. That’s thanks to three marquee home non-conference games—Ohio State to open the Bearcats’ new digs and Crosstown Classic rival Xavier and UCLA later on—along with a winnable Emerald Coast Classic and a pair of intriguing road games, against improving UNLV and SEC at-large threat Mississippi State.

190. UConn Huskies

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (UConn) 1 win (Oregon (N)) and 2 losses (Syracuse (N), @Arizona)

After following up 2016’s NCAA Tournament appearance with just 30 total wins over the next two seasons, UConn fired Kevin Ollie, asking former Rhode Island coach Dan Hurley to start rebuilding the Husky program to former glories. And yes, your eyes aren’t deceiving you, UConn will travel no further than Newark before conference play begins. But that doesn’t mean things will be easy for the Huskies, as they’ll take on defending national champion Villanova, rival Syracuse, Florida State, and either Oregon or Iowa in the New York area, with Arizona visiting the Nutmeg State, spicing up an otherwise weak home schedule.

249. UCF Knights

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (UCF) 2 wins (@Alabama, @Stetson) and 2 losses (West Virginia (N), Missouri)

The Knights managed to beat both Nebraska and Alabama in non-conference play, but thanks to Tacko Fall’s midseason injury, UCF couldn’t contend for an at-large—with its 19 wins falling five short of matching the total accumulated in Johnny Dawkins’ first season in charge. But with just one true road game—another shot at taking out Missouri after last November’s three-point home loss, visits from Bama and MVC title threat Illinois State, and three games at the Myrtle Beach Invitational, UCF might find itself ready to challenge for the conference title for sure this time around. Provided everyone stays healthy.

312. Tulane Green Wave

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (Tuln) 2 wins (Southeastern Louisiana, South Alabama) and 2 losses (@Georgia State, Florida State (N))

Mike Dunleavy’s Green Wave saw their win total more than double between seasons one and two—from six to 14—with a strong 9-3 non-conference performance largely responsible for that rise. While Tulane will play just one true road game this fall—at South Alabama, expecting the squad to improve its non-conference win total might be completely unreasonable, even with this schedule ranking in the bottom 50 nationally. That’s thanks not only to a visit from a Florida State squad that’s coming off an Elite Eight appearance, but also because of the Green Wave’s participation in a pair of tournaments. Not only will Tulane travel to Atlantic City for the first-ever Battle at the Boardwalk in December, but they’ll be the third American Athletic member to play in the mid-major-focused Gulf Coast Showcase in five seasons. And I suspect the Green Wave will come closer to matching East Carolina’s sixth-place finish from 2014 rather than Houston’s 2016 tournament win.

313. Houston Cougars

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (UH) 1 win (@Saint Louis) and 1 loss (@LSU)

In the second game of the Cougars’ 2017-18 season, they lost to Drexel in the quarterfinals of the relocated Paradise Jam at Liberty, an inauspicious start for a team that ended up winning 27, reached the American Athletic Tournament final, and ultimately fell to Michigan in the second round of the NCAAs, thanks only to a Jordan Poole buzzer-beater. This time around, Kelvin Sampson’s club will start its season against a home-heavy schedule that’s a bit more challenging than it is at first glance. The two road games—BYU (as part of an exempt event) and Oklahoma State—aren’t gimmes. Plus, there are three tricky games hidden in a home slate dominated by cupcakes—Pac-12 favorite Oregon, SEC contender LSU, and A 10 title threat Saint Louis.

337. SMU Mustangs

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (SMU) 1 win (Northwestern State) and 1 loss (@TCU)

Thanks in no small part to injuries, Tim Jankovich’s Mustangs saw a promising 12-3 start turn into a 17-16 finish. And this slate, yet another featuring plenty of home games, is designed to get SMU back on track quickly. Metroplex rival TCU is the most dangerous team visiting Moody Coliseum this year, with ASUN favorite Lipscomb coming in second, while neither the road trip to Georgetown or a Cancun Challenge that features Big Ten question mark Penn State and Horizon champ Wright State should be too daunting of a task.

351. East Carolina Pirates

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (ECU) 2 wins (UNCW, Delaware State) and 2 losses (North Carolina A&T, Charlotte)

Former Florida Gulf Coast head coach Joe Dooley returned to Greenville, 19 years after the program he led to a 57-52 record over four seasons fired him. His first challenge will be to improve upon the 10-20 mark the Pirates posted during a 2017-18 campaign that saw Jeff Lebo depart part of the way through. And with this extremely soft non-conference schedule, the third-worst in the country, which features 10 teams ranked in the bottom half of Division I, Dooley’s squad could equal last season’s win total before American play tips off.

353. South Florida Bulls

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: (USF) 2 wins (@Stetson, Charlotte) and 2 losses (@Appalachian State, FIU)

Brian Gregory’s first Bulls squad went 10-22, a three-win improvement over USF’s tumultuous 2016-17 campaign, but a long way from where the program wants to be. Thanks to the nation’s worst non-conference slate, which features just two teams ranked in the top 200 of the four-year rankings—and five teams from the bottom 50, including the two worst teams in the nation, South Florida should improve upon its 7-6 non-league mark of 2017-18.

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