For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

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Ranking The Teams

Even though Louisville dropped out of the four-year ranking’s top 10 thanks to a tumultuous 2017-18 season, the ACC now has an unparalleled three teams—Virginia, Duke, and North Carolina—in the top five nationally. While 10 teams remain in the top 50, the number of top 100 teams declined to 13 from 14, thanks to Pitt’s horrible 2017-18 leading the Panthers to drop a whopping 56 spots in the ranking. On the flip side, Boston College’s 29-place improvement means every ACC team finds itself among the top 150 this season.

The Eagles could see their position improve even more in next season’s four-year ranking if their performance meets or exceeds the 55-spot improvement KenPom’s 2018-19 preseason projection foresees when compared to the four-year ranking. Syracuse, Virginia Tech, and N.C. State are all projected to rank 20 or more spots higher, while Wake, Pitt, Notre Dame, and Louisville are all looking at struggling considerably more than in recent history. For the Demon Deacons and Panthers, that could mean another season out of the NCAAs or NIT, while another March on the bubble could await the Fighting Irish and Cardinals.

Ranking The Schedules

For the second season in a row, the ACC ranks in the bottom quartile as a conference in terms of its known schedule strength. However, the strength of the fields conference’s members will encounter in the later rounds of bracketed tournaments once again lift the ACC’s average and maximum schedule rankings into the top half of Division I. But if these teams struggle in these events, they’re likely to face far weaker opposition, which drives the minimum schedule ranking outside of the top 20.

While UNC, Duke, and Louisville all have top 40 schedules according to the super average of the three variable categories, six conference members rank outside of the top 250, with BC ranking exactly 250th. Three of those teams, including at-large possibilities Miami and Virginia Tech, have bottom 50 non-conference slates.

Note: The number of asterisks (*) represent the number of pending games on a team’s schedule.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

With three top five teams, it would not have been surprising for the ACC to have a few teams who under-schedule this season. However, every single conference members—all 15—did so. Miami and Virginia Tech lead the way, though 2018 NCAA team N.C. State joins those two teams in under-scheduling by more than 200 places and NIT qualifier Notre Dame under-did things by 199 spots.

North Carolina, Louisville, and Duke all managed to only under-schedule themselves by 27 or fewer spots.

After leading the Power 7 by playing 29 true road non-conference games a season ago, the ACC’s total of 23 for 2018-19 drops it behind the Pac-12 this season (and into a tie with the SEC for second). The decline in non-Power 7 road contests was more precipitous, falling from 10 to four, knocking the conference from a tie for second with the American a season ago into a three-way tie for fourth with the Big 12 and Big Ten.

As usual, the ACC’s conference challenge partner, the Big Ten, leads this table, though the conferences have scheduled two fewer games against each other this season than in 2017-18. The SEC and Big South have jumped into the top five, replacing the Southern and Northeast conferences. A season ago, ACC members scheduled games against every other Division I league, but this time around three—the Missouri Valley, Big West, and Summit—are missing. However, ACC squads could meet teams from the first two of those leagues listed in the later rounds of exempt tournaments.

Two SEC squads, Kentucky and Tennessee, and two lowly-ranked mid-majors, Gardner-Webb and Maryland Eastern Shore, appear on three separate ACC schedules each. Conversely, Wake Forest will play three Atlantic 10 teams, while Virginia Tech scheduled a trio of MEAC foes.

Not only will ACC members play nearly 72% of their non-conference games at home this season, nearly two-thirds of those contests will come against teams falling within Quad 4, at least based on the four-year rankings. While 17 of the 23 non-league road games qualify for Quad 1 status, just 12 of those will come against teams in the top 50 of the four-year table.

There’s remarkable balance in the ACC’s scheduled neutral-site games this year, with eight falling under each of the top three Quads (top 50, second 50, and second 100), but the majority of the potential matchups in exempt events will feature teams from the top 100.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net, except for Georgia Tech (RamblinWreck.com).

12. North Carolina Tar Heels

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (@Stanford, Michigan, Davidson (N), Wofford) and 1 loss (Michigan State (N))

The Tar Heels play three true road games this season, like Georgia Tech. However, unlike the Yellow Jackets, two of UNC’s contests will come in relatively new mid-major arenas—Wofford‘s, which opened last season (and remember that the Terriers won in Chapel Hill last December), and Elon‘s, which debuts this November. Those challenges are just a small part of a slate that will test Roy Williams’ squad early and often, thanks to the presence of five Power 7 games, with only the one against Stanford coming at the Smith Center, a visit from Gonzaga, a member of the Power 7 in all but name, and contests against Davidson and Harvard at the Dean Dome. Even the Las Vegas Invitational home game against St. Francis (Pa.) features a team favored to win its conference this season. This is the type of schedule more power conference teams should attempt to build.

31. Duke Blue Devils

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (@Indiana) and 1 loss (@St. John’s)

For the third time in four seasons, the Blue Devils won’t play a true non-conference road game (no, I’m not counting the December 2016 game played near, but not on UNLV‘s campus). Instead, Mike Krzyzewski’s squad will play eight contests at Cameron Indoor—two of which are return matchups from a season ago—and a fairly daunting set of neutral-site games—Kentucky in Indianapolis on Opening Night, Texas Tech in New York in December, and three at a loaded Maui Jim Maui Invitational. Naturally, this type of schedule is designed to prepare Duke for the neutral-site contests of March, but it would be nice to see the Blue Devils challenge themselves in a truly hostile road environment before ACC play.

37. Louisville Cardinals

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Indiana) and 2 losses (Seton Hall, @Kentucky)

Chris Mack’s first Cardinal schedule, featuring home games against Michigan State and Kentucky (and Lipscomb and Vermont, for that matter), a daunting pair of games at the NIT Season Tip-Off in Brooklyn, and dangerous trips to Seton Hall and Indiana, should put Louisville in good position, regardless of the results. And they’ll probably need the metrics boost with another season on the bubble likely.

59. Virginia Cavaliers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@VCU, Wisconsin) and 0 losses

While people remember how the Cavaliers’ 2017-18 season ended, they likely forgot that Virginia won 31 games last year, with an 11-1 non-conference mark getting Tony Bennett’s team well on its way to a No. 1 seed. To equal (or better) that hot start, Virginia is going to have to navigate its way through the Battle 4 Atlantis (though the Cavaliers are on what I consider to be the far easier half of the bracket) and take out a pair of former league rivals—Maryland and (more distantly) South Carolina—in road games. And those three final home non-league games featuring quality local rivals might put an eerie scare into fans at John Paul Jones Arena in December.

122. Syracuse Orange

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 5 wins (Cornell, UConn (N), Colgate, @Georgetown, Buffalo) and 1 loss (St. Bonaventure)

Jim Boeheim is a man who knows what he likes and who also really doesn’t care what you think about that. In recent seasons, he’s gotten to a comfortable place when it comes to non-conference scheduling and that template is evident this season. Yes, there’s just the one true road game, with last year’s matchup with Georgetown (who visit the Carrier Dome this season) swapped for the biennial Big Ten Challenge road game (Ohio State). There’s an exempt event that doubles as a trip to Madison Square Garden so the Orange’s copious New York City fanbase will get a chance to cheer their team on. Then there’s a home slate that features some local flavor and several quality mid-majors—with a pair of conference favorites in Buffalo and Northeastern, bogeymen St. Bonaventure, and C-USA contender Old Dominion highlighting this season’s lineup. Syracuse’s 2018-19 slate isn’t a top-flight one, but like last year’s, it should keep the Orange in the at-large hunt all the way until the Selection Show.

140. Florida State Seminoles

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@Florida, Tulane (N))

The Seminoles, an Elite Eight squad last March, will only leave the state of Florida twice before the start of conference play—for a pair of games against American Athletic Conference members UConn (in the Never Forget Tribute Classic) and Tulane. And those two squads shouldn’t trouble FSU all that much, much like the majority of the home schedule. But there are some quality matchups here. Florida, a squad the Noles have dominated of late, will test FSU right out of the gate, while the visit from the Purdue will be one of the more anticipated matchups of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. In between, the Seminoles could meet Villanova in the final of the AdvoCare Invitational (an event FSU won in its only previous appearance, back in 2009. Then, as the holidays approach, a tricky matchup with A 10 favorite Saint Louis awaits in South Florida at the Orange Bowl Classic.

207. Clemson Tigers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (South Carolina) and 0 losses

After last season’s run to the Sweet Sixteen, expectations are high for Brad Brownell’s Tigers. Still, despite the presence of three 2018 NCAA qualifiers and Big Ten at-large contender Nebraska on Clemson’s home slate, the Tigers will need to prove themselves on the road to pick up multiple non-conference victories over possible NCAA squads. It would be a surprise if Clemson failed to reach the final of this season’s Cayman Islands Classic, while a pair of SEC teams—Mississippi State in the Never Forget Tribute Classic in New Jersey in December and in-state rival South Carolina—will provide nice tests heading into the grind of ACC play.

220. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@DePaul, Chicago State) and 0 losses

Last season, the Fighting Irish’s non-conference results boiled down to a Maui Jim Maui Invitational title and losses in both the Big Ten/ACC Challenge (at Michigan State) and Crossroads Classic (to Indiana). That wasn’t enough to boost Notre Dame when they went 8-10 in ACC play. This time around, there’s a trip to New York to play Oklahoma in the Jimmy V Classic (but not Duquesne in the Gotham Classic, that game will be in South Bend), a true road game at UCLA, Purdue in the Crossroads Classic, and Illinois in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge at Purcell Pavilion. And with the Sooners and Fighting Illini major question marks heading into the season, it’s likely that Mike Brey’s team will have to make real noise in the ACC to be an at-large threat this time, even if they pick up wins over the Boilermakers and Bruins.

250. Boston College Eagles

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (Sacred Heart, @Hartford, Columbia, Richmond) and 1 loss (@Providence)

The Eagles got themselves to the fringe of the bubble by mid-February before four losses in their final five games damaged their ACC standing and dropped them to the NIT. Jim Christian has built a schedule that honestly needed a little more to prepare BC for a more realistic at-large push this season. The Eagles will need to take advantage of the road game at Texas A&M and meet (and likely) defeat Loyola Chicago in the final in Fort Myers to have a quality non-conference win on the profile, though a pair of teams that visit the Conte Forum—Minnesota and Providence—could fit the bill when all is said and done.

257. Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Richmond, @Charlotte) and 1 loss (Tennessee)

The Demon Deacons followed a 19-win 2016-17 campaign that ended in the First Four with a clunker of a 2017-18 that barely got to 11 wins. Danny Manning’s squad is likely to repeat last season’s indifferent 7-5 non-conference record, thanks to six winnable home games (Davidson has the tools to knock Wake off in Winston-Salem), trips to Richmond Spiders and Tennessee, and three games at a Myrtle Beach Invitational that’s not going to be easy for a lower-tier ACC squad.

271. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (UTRGV, Northwestern, Florida A&M) and 2 losses (Tennessee, @Georgia)

The Yellow Jackets, coming off a 13-19 campaign, have one of the more befuddling non-conference slates you’ll see this season. On one hand, there are nine home games, eight of which feature opposition ranked outside of the top 200 of the four-year ranking, with five of those teams ranked 300th or worse. Then there are the five Power 7 games, three of which are on the road. Look for Josh Pastner’s team to equal or better last season’s 7-6 non-league mark before struggling through ACC play again.

280. N.C. State Wolfpack

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: N/A

Kevin Keatts’ first Wolfpack squad rode a non-conference schedule similar to this one—and an 11-7 ACC record to a 9 seed last March. Naturally, the four Power 7 matchups, three away from Raleigh, are the most important contests here. The majority of the home schedule, however, will only create headlines if State is upset by one of the nine squads ranked outside of the four-year ranking’s top 150.

305. Pittsburgh Panthers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Duquesne (N)) and 1 loss (West Virginia)

Jeff Capel will attempt to turn around a Panther squad that crashed to an 8-24 finish in the final season of Kevin Stallings’ disastrous tenure in the Steel City. And while Pitt should exceed last year’s win total before ACC play arrives thanks to the Charmin-soft home schedule, all four games away from the Petersen Events Center could result in losses. The trip to West Virginia for the return game of the Backyard Brawl series might need to come with a warning label.

311. Miami Hurricanes

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (La Salle (N), @Hawai’i) and 0 losses

With Rutgers the Hurricanes’ assigned opponent in the Big Ten Challenge this season, Jim Larrañaga’s squad likely won’t encounter all that many difficulties before ACC play. The most dangerous matchups here appear to be in the later rounds of the Wooden Legacy (Northwestern, followed by Utah or Seton Hall is the path Miami wants) and a pair of contests against Ivy League contenders—defending champ Penn at the Palestra and Yale in the Canes’ backyard. But in total, this isn’t the slate a team knocked out in the First Round of the NCAAs last March needed.

338. Virginia Tech Hokies

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Washington (N), Maryland Eastern Shore, N.C. A&T) and 0 losses

With five of the Hokies’ seven home opponents ranked in the bottom 20 of the four-year ranking and the other two foes outside of the top 200, the Hokies will need to rely on their five games away from Blacksburg to build a profile before ACC play. Defeating Ball State in the Charleston Classic quarterfinals is job no. 1 for Virginia Tech. While both day two opponents are quality foes, there’s a big difference between playing Purdue, Wichita State, or Davidson and Appalachian State on day three. Later, the Big Ten Challenge matchup with Penn State and the game in Atlantic City with Washington could be vital if these teams join the Hokies on the bubble in February and March.

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