For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

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Ranking The Teams

The 2017-18 season was not a vintage one for the A 10. As a result, the conference dropped below the Mountain West in the league rankings. Making matters worse, the conference saw its membership in the top 50, 100, 150, and 200 of these rankings all decline. That’s due in no small part to VCU, Dayton, GW, and Richmond slipping back.

KenPom projects that just five of the A 10’s 14 members will outperform their four-year rankings this season, but that number includes both Saint Louis and George Mason—a pair of teams forecast to battle for the conference crown. In fact the Billikens’ 142-point KenPom gap is the biggest projected improvement against the four-year ranking in the country. However, the majority of the conference, including all three of its 2018 NCAA Tournament representatives, is expected to fall short of their recent histories in 2019.

Ranking The Schedules

Despite the presence of four Atlantic 10 teams in the national top 50, the simultaneous appearance of another quartet in the bottom 100, including a trio of teams in the bottom 30, drops the conference into the second half of Division I in terms of the super average schedule ranking. The known opponents on the league’s 14 slates deflate the conference’s numbers, with plenty of improvement possible in the bracketed exempt events 11 A 10 members are scheduled to participate in this season.

Note: The number of asterisks (*) represent the number of pending games on a team’s schedule.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

While George Mason has the smallest scheduling gap of the A 10’s 14 members, the Patriots’ 10-spot deficit is disappointing for a team expected to challenge for the conference title, particularly considering the low starting point. For comparison’s sake, Saint Louis, the preseason favorite, over-scheduled by 106 spots when compared to its four-year ranking. There aren’t a ton of surprises on this list, as Davidson, Saint Joe’s, and VCU all challenged themselves as usual, while Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure struggled to get games, and Fordham and Duquesne didn’t make much of an effort at all. Richmond joins GMU in the disappointment group, as the Spiders—a team that usually schedules well—under-scheduled by more than 200 places this season.

The Atlantic 10 saw a small uptick in home games compared to last season—by a whopping total of three. But conference members will play five fewer such games against Power 7 foes when compared to 2017-18, while playing two more power road contests. Davidson and Fordham are responsible for the two non-D1 games on A 10 schedules this season.

In 2017-18, the Atlantic 10 only missed scheduling games against the Big Sky and Summit League. This time around, a whopping half-dozen leagues, five of them out West, are missing. However, the A 10 could play up to five games against the absent Mountain West and three against the Big West in tournament play.

As a result, Eastern conferences dominate A 10 schedules, claiming the top 10 spots in the table above (though classifying the geographically-dispersed American Athletic as an Eastern league is questionable). Last season, the ACC and Big East led the way in providing Atlantic 10 non-league opponents, and while the former ranks second this year, the CAA has replaced the latter in the top two.

Not surprisingly, former conference member Temple appears on no fewer than six A 10 schedules this season. Nine teams appear three times, most notably Wake Forest, Harvard, Bucknell, Penn, Old Dominion, and Vermont. As for individual Atlantic 10 schedules, Richmond will play three Big South teams, while St. Bonaventure lined up a trio of Upstate New York MAAC squads for its schedule.

If the Atlantic 10 is to earn more than two bids this season, at-large contenders are going to have to do some work on the road, as conference members have just five potential Quad 1 or 2 home contests listed during non-league play. Note that there are four road games against top five opponents and two top 10 games on neutral floors. The total of 72 Quad 4 home games is slightly disappointing, but understandable given the A 10’s position in between the Power 7 and mid-major ranks.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

27. VCU Rams

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Old Dominion) and 2 losses (Virginia and Texas)

Mike Rhoades’ second non-conference schedule might be a bit more daunting than his first, even with the Legends Classic not being anywhere near as loaded as last season’s Maui Jim Maui Invitational. That increase in strength is due in no small part to the Rams’ need return games against Virginia and Texas this time around. Still, there’s potential here, especially with both Temple and St. John’s, who the Rams will and could see in Brooklyn, likely to improve. On the flip side, VCU’s marquee home game, against Wichita State, doesn’t quite have the luster it would have had a season ago, thanks to the Shockers’ offseason losses.

32. Saint Joseph’s Hawks

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@UIC, Princeton) and 3 losses (Villanova, @Temple, @Penn)

For the second season in succession, injuries derailed a promising Hawk squad—though Phil Martelli’s squad still managed a .500 record and five-win improvement from 2016-17. Saint Joe’s should be able to improve upon that with (needed) good health this time around. A trip to the Myrtle Beach Invitational final is possible, while 2018 Final Four squad Loyola Chicago will challenge the Hawks in a showcase game at the Palestra. Then there’s the annual showdown with Villanova, which unfortunately for Saint Joseph’s, is set for the Wildcats’ renovated on-campus arena this season.

34. Davidson Wildcats

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (UNCW, @Charlotte) and 2 losses (@Appalachian State, North Carolina (N))

If the Wildcats want to return to the NCAAs for a second consecutive year, a strong performance at the Charleston Classic and avoiding faceplants in their six winnable home games will be vital. Winning at North Carolina or, more likely, Wake Forest would be helpful, but not nearly as vital as a two- or three-win performance one weekend before Thanksgiving.

41. La Salle Explorers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@Penn, Temple) and 5 losses (Miami (Fla.) (N), Towson (N), Drexel, @Villanova, @Bucknell)

The Explorers were yet another A 10 team that couldn’t manage a .500 record in non-conference play a season ago. And with La Salle stumbling to a 13-19 finish, Dr. John Giannini was relieved of his duties. New coach Ashley Howard will have his work cut out for him with this slate, which naturally features a trio of difficult Big Five games, a trip to Florida, and not one but two bracketed tournaments (for the second season in a row). At least La Salle won’t have to travel far for the second event, which will be in Atlantic City.

80. George Washington Colonials

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Howard, Princeton, Harvard) and 0 losses

Like their rivals from Fairfax, the Colonials also took a step back in non-league play last season, which hampered their final record. And after a 15-win campaign, this sneakily tricky slate probably isn’t going to help the bottom line for Maurice Joseph’s squad. There’s a decent chance that GW won’t win a single game away from the Smith Center this fall, even though they defeated both Princeton and Harvard in D.C. last year. The Hall of Fame Tip-Off semifinal matchup against 2018 National Runner-Up Michigan is just cruel.

104. Saint Louis Billikens

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Southern Illinois, Southeast Missouri State) and 3 losses (@Butler, Houston, Oregon State (N))

Travis Ford’s second Billiken team created an early stir by defeating eventual NCAA qualifier Virginia Tech in the 2K Classic semifinals in the season’s opening weekend. And while SLU failed to live up to those perhaps prematurely heightened expectations, the Billikens still managed a five-win improvement over 2016-17. This time around, a team that’s considered a real threat for the A 10 crown will certainly be tested before conference play with a visit from Butler and road trips to Seton Hall, Houston, and Florida State (okay, the Seminoles’ home state) balancing a soft home schedule and MTE.

121. Rhode Island Rams

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (Holy Cross, Brown, Providence, College of Charleston)

The most disappointing thing about the Rams 2018-19 non-conference slate is that Nevada bought out Rhody’s return game—the Wolf Pack won an entertaining 88-81 affair in Reno last November. The home game with Harvard and annual matchup with Providence (this time at the Dunkin’ Donuts Center) aside, the biggest challenges for David Cox’s first Ram squad will come at the Mohegan Sun (where Rhode Island will take on West Virginia) and Hawai’i. The Rams’ Diamond Head Classic quarterfinal with two-time-defending Patriot League champ Bucknell might very well be one of the biggest mid-major games of the season.

151. Dayton Flyers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: No wins and 2 losses (Auburn, @Mississippi State)

Other than the trip to the Bahamas and a pair of SEC contests, the Flyers’ 2018-19 non-conference slate is designed to get them off to a better start than the 6-6 one they experienced in Anthony Grant’s first season. Seven home wins are possible, but the Flyers shouldn’t expect much out of their road/neutral games. A possible day two meeting with Middle Tennessee is likely to determine if the Flyers make it out of Atlantis with a win.

159. St. Bonaventure Bonnies

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 7 wins (Jackson State, @Siena, @Buffalo, @Canisius, Vermont (N), Northeastern, @Syracuse) and 1 loss (Niagara)

The Bonnies’ 10-2 non-conference record and 6-1 mark in non-league games played away from Olean played a significant role in their qualification for the 2018 NCAA Tournament. And with many familiar names—and victims—on this season’s slate and a quality Cayman Islands Classic serving as SBU’s MTE, Mark Schmidt’s squad will find itself right back in the at-large picture with a similarly excellent start to 2018-19.

196. George Mason Patriots

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (@James Madison, N.C. Central, Morgan State) and 2 losses (William & Mary, Georgia Southern)

The Patriots took a step back in Dave Paulsen’s third season, winning four fewer games than they did in 2016-17. And since GMU finished 9-9 in the A 10 in each of the last two seasons, non-conference struggles are what held the Patriots back in 2017-18. But with a more difficult exempt tournament and visits from Ivy champ Penn and America East power Vermont on this slate, along with three tricky road trips, repeating last year’s stuttering 6-7 start seems a more likely proposition than a replay of 2016’s 10-3 opening run.

286. UMass Minutemen

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (UMass Lowell, Holy Cross, Providence, Georgia) and 2 losses (@Harvard, @Quinnipiac)

Matt McCall’s first group of Minutemen surprised during non-league play, taking advantage of home games against Providence and Georgia to pull a couple of surprises on the way to a 7-6 start. But this time around, UMass has to head to the Dunk and Athens, as well as to Las Vegas for their Thanksgiving exempt tournament. That means the Minutemen must take advantage of all eight of their home games (even the one against Harvard) if they want to better last fall’s non-league mark.

329. Richmond Spiders

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 0 wins and 4 losses (Georgetown, @Wake Forest, @Old Dominion, @Boston College)

While the Spiders managed to break even during their A 10 campaign, November and December of 2017 were unkind to Chris Mooney’s squad. Richmond stumbled into conference play with a 2-10 record, then promptly defeated eventual league auto bid winner Davidson by 11 at the Robins Center. Another slow start could lead to the calls for Mooney’s job to grow louder. However, five home games against D1 bottom feeders should at least make the win total a bit more respectable, though it would take a surprise win over Loyola Chicago or Boston College in Fort Myers to receive anything resembling national acclaim.

332. Duquesne Dukes

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Maryland Eastern Shore) and 1 loss (Pittsburgh (N))

Despite their participation in the Gotham Classic, the Dukes won’t be traveling to New York this November, as they’ll play Notre Dame in South Bend in that event’s showcase game. That trip to Indiana will be the lone game Keith Dambrot’s second Duquesne squad plays away from Pittsburgh before A 10 play begins. Last year, they at least got to play two contests in Vegas. In 2017, Duquesne went 9-2 in their own building against one of the softest slates in the nation. A year later, similar results are possible, with visits from William & Mary and defending C-USA Tournament champ Marshall the biggest challenges.

352. Fordham Rams

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (LIU Brooklyn, Manhattan, Maine) and 1 loss (@Rutgers)

Like Duquesne, the Rams want to gather wins and confidence during November and December. With 167th-ranked Rutgers the highest-ranked team here, and five teams from outside of the top 300, including the country’s lowest-rated team, Alabama A&M, also present, there’s little wonder why this is the second-worst non-conference schedule in the country. At least Jeff Neubauer’s squad should enter A 10 play with more wins than the five they picked up to start the 2017-18 campaign.

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