For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

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Ranking The Teams

Conference USA is yet another league hit hard by realignment when it comes to NCAA Tournament selection and seeding. Just 10 seasons ago, Memphis earned a No. 2 seed—the last of four consecutive 1 or 2 seeds for John Calipari’s squads. In the decade since, the now-departed Tigers also own the highest seed earned, a 6 in 2013, the school’s final season in the conference. The league has also earned multiple bids just three times since 2009—in 2010, 2011, and 2012—and Memphis and Southern Miss. only ended up as an 8 and 9, respectively, in the final season of that run.

Otherwise, it’s been double-digit seeds for C-USA’s representatives—a number that’s been limited to just one for the past six NCAA Tournaments. And with the league champ assigned a 12, 13 (twice), 14, and 15 in the last five events, Conference USA’s members decided to try something different this season. So, the league adopted a flex scheduling proposal from college basketball analyst Mark Adams that will use the conference standings to determine who meets who over the final four contests of the 18-game slate.

Several Conference USA members made significant jumps in the four-year ranking over just the past season—with Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Western Kentucky, 2018 NCAA rep Marshall, and UTSA standing out in particular. So, giving C-USA’s best teams more opportunities to meet each other late might indeed be the key to getting the conference’s regular season champ an at-large—something denied to Middle Tennessee a season ago—or at the very least, a shot at a better seed. Not that a double-digit seed has hurt the conference’s NCAA entrant, which has advanced to the Round of 32 in three consecutive seasons.

While KenPom projects that Middle Tennessee will underperform by 92 places (when compared to the four-year ranking) in its first Kermit Davis-less season, Marshall and WKU are expected to be substantially better coming off fruitful postseason appearances and four lower-tier squads are expected to make big jumps toward respectability.

Ranking The Schedules

A season ago, C-USA found itself in the bottom third of Division I when it came to non-conference scheduling, thanks in no small part to the consistent presence of nine slates in the bottom half of the nation across all four categories. That number has been reduced to seven this year, with just four teams outside of the top 200—compared to seven such teams a season ago. Combine those changes with the fact Middle Tennessee and WKU both own schedules that rank among the best in the country, it’s no surprise the league’s standing has jumped considerably.

Note: The number of asterisks (*) represent the number of pending games on a team’s schedule.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

However, Conference USA’s improvement came at a cost, as the majority of the league’s 14 members over-scheduled relative to their recent performances. These decisions could pay off for contenders like Marshall and WKU, however.

Conference USA schedules were remarkably consistent on these four fronts when compared to last season:

• League members scheduled one fewer home game than in 2017-18, with just one more home non-D1 contest on the 14 slates overall. (North Texas is playing D2 Humboldt State in Honolulu as part of the Rainbow Classic.)
• With Charlotte hosting three Power 7 teams, Wisconsin visiting WKU, Oklahoma making a trip to former Lon Kruger assistant Steve Henson at UTSA, and FIU hosting South Florida, the conference will collectively play one more power conference home game than it did a season ago.
• C-USA teams have 24 guaranteed Power 7 road games on their schedules for the second season in succession.

Even though the average C-USA team has two non-D1 games on its schedule, the total of 28 is enough to lead the table of scheduled “conferences” for the second season in a row. UTSA and FIU’s four such opponents and Southern Miss., North Texas, and FAU’s three apiece more than make up for the absence of non-D1 opponents from the schedules of contenders Marshall, ODU, and WKU. To me, the reliance on non-D1 games, particularly among teams from the second division, is one thing holding the league back. Again, it might not be a bad idea for C-USA to work with the Sun Belt and Southland, two conferences with similar scheduling issues, to reduce this reliance on opponents who don’t count.

There’s good variety in the Division I opponents Conference USA members scheduled—the Big Sky is the only loop that doesn’t have a scheduled game against one of the league’s 14 schools, while Arkansas, Troy, and Wichita State are the only three Division I opponents who will play a trio of C-USA members in the fall.

Of the seven top 100 non-conference home games (based on the four-year ranking) C-USA members have scheduled, three fall under Quad 1 and another three under Quad 2. Of course, the three Quad 1 home games—UTSA’s against Oklahoma and WKU’s two against Wisconsin and Saint Mary’s—all feature teams who might not rank that highly when all is said and done this season. Still, there will be plenty of Quad 1 and 2 win opportunities for league members in November and December, particularly for WKU, UAB, and Middle Tennessee in their competitive exempt tournaments.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

10. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (@Murray State, @Vanderbilt, Ole Miss) and 1 loss (Belmont)

Former UNC Asheville coach Nick McDevitt replaces Kermit Davis on the Blue Raiders’ bench, with Middle’s former coach taking over for Andy Kennedy at Ole Miss. Davis will look to snap the Rebels’ two-game losing streak to Middle Tennessee—the pair meet for the third season in a row, this time in Nashville. The Blue Raiders look to be rebuilding this year, which is a shame, because thanks to a road trip to what should be an improved Vanderbilt squad (last season’s road win didn’t do much for Middle’s at-large chances) and the Battle 4 Atlantis, along with matchups against local powers Belmont and Lipscomb, there are several quality win opportunities to be had here.

50. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Indiana State) and 3 losses (Missouri State, @Wisconsin, Belmont)

Rick Stansbury’s second Hilltopper squad made national noise early—by beating both Purdue and SMU in the Battle 4 Atlantis—and late—by reaching the NIT semifinals. In between, WKU didn’t do quite enough to earn the at-large it needed after falling to Marshall in the C-USA final. The ‘Toppers will get another shot in 2018-19, starting with a trip to rising Washington, followed by three games at the Myrtle Beach Invitational, where perennial Big 12 power West Virginia could await on day 2. Later in non-conference play, WKU will host Saint Mary’s and Wisconsin and visit Arkansas and Belmont; however, the Hilltoppers might need each of those teams to exceed preseason expectations for those potential wins to help an at-large case.

63. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Rust, Troy, William Carey) and 2 losses (South Dakota (N), @South Alabama)

After failing to win more than nine games in each of his first three seasons in charge, Doc Sadler’s fourth Golden Eagle squad finished 16-18, though their final victory, in the C-USA semifinals, ended up costing Middle Tennessee an NCAA bid. Southern Miss. should get off to a flying start in 2018, thanks to four non-D1 home games and a pair of winnable games in Mexico at the Cancun Challenge. Still, with the quality of the road lineup, don’t expect the Golden Eagles to enter league play with more than seven wins. This is another schedule where the number of non-D1 games really has the potential to affect the conference’s NET rankings when February and March arrive. The quality of the road games on this slate somewhat artificially boosts this slate’s overall strength.

77. Marshall Thundering Herd

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (Akron, @Toledo, Ohio, Eastern Kentucky) and 2 losses (@Morehead State, @William & Mary)

Dan D’Antoni’s Herd are another C-USA squad that started with nine non-conference wins a season ago. And after last season’s NCAA Tournament success, Marshall has scheduled like a team that’s hungry for more. The Thundering Herd will get an early chance to make national headlines when they visit Maryland for the showcase game of the Terps’ exempt round-robin, while they’ll visit both Texas A&M and Virginia right before C-USA play begins. As for the home slate, Hofstra, Toledo, and William & Mary should all test Marshall at the Henderson Center.

89. UTEP Miners

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (New Mexico) and 2 losses (@New Mexico State, New Mexico State)

Rodney Terry departed Fresno State for West Texas looking to restore the UTEP program to former glories. With Tim Floyd retiring early in the season, Phil Johnson managed to coach the Miners to an 11-20 mark, highlighted by home wins over New Mexico and Washington State. But it wasn’t enough for the administration to remove the interim tag. With this schedule, Terry will have his work cut out for him in his first season. Not only is there the traditional home-and-home with I-10 neighbors New Mexico State and the Sun Bowl Invitational, but trips to Marquette and a pair of Southwestern powers—Arizona and New Mexico—mean the Miners will likely take plenty of lumps early in the new season.

120. UTSA Roadrunners

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (@Texas State, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Houston Baptist, Bethany (Kan.) and 1 loss (@Oklahoma)

After recording a nine-win improvement in his first season in charge in San Antonio, former Oklahoma assistant Steve Henson got the Roadrunners to the 20-win plateau and a postseason berth in his second. UTSA should be able to show the rest of C-USA that it’s ready to contend for a league crown with this slate, even with the four non-D1 home games. That’s because Henson’s former boss, Lon Kruger, and his Sooners will visit the Alamo City this year, a game the Roadrunners could win with OU rebuilding. A true road game against Oklahoma State and contest in North Little Rock against Arkansas will give UTSA another pair of chances at claiming a power conference win, while plenty of quality mid-major programs share the Gulf Coast Showcase field with Henson’s squad.

124. Charlotte 49ers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (@East Carolina) and 7 losses (@Oklahoma State, College of Charleston, Davidson, @James Madison, Wake Forest, @Chattanooga, @USF)

Ron Sanchez arrives in Charlotte from Tony Bennett’s Virginia staff, and he’ll have his work cut out for him in rebuilding after the failed Mark Price experiment. Four of the 49ers six 2017-18 wins came in non-conference play, with American Athletic whipping boys East Carolina the most noteworthy victim. The Pirates visit Halton Arena this season, one of three Power 7 teams to do so, though Oklahoma State is likely the only NCAA threat among the trio (sorry, South Florida). This schedule also features three short road trips to complement one of the longest ones you can make—the Niners will close non-league play by traveling to Hawai’i for the Diamond Head Classic.

178. Old Dominion Monarchs

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (@James Madison, Richmond, @Fairfield) and 2 losses (@William & Mary, @VCU)

Last season, Jeff Jones’ squad finished 25-7 and didn’t participate in a postseason tournament. The Monarchs will look for a happier ending this season, with their coach’s continuing battle with prostate cancer adding to their motivation. ODU should be able to get itself off to a strong start, thanks to their regionally-focused schedule, with A 10 contender Saint Joseph’s and 2018 Sweet 16 squad Syracuse serving as the biggest road games. The longest trip the Monarchs will make, however, is to the Virgin Islands for the Paradise Jam. Note that Old Dominion has won five of the six games its played in the event all-time, as the Monarchs finished second in 2005 and defeated Xavier for the 2010 title. Quarterfinal opponent Oregon State and potential foes Missouri and Kansas State should keep that history in mind.

183. Florida Atlantic Owls

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Bethune-Cookman, @FGCU) and 2 losses (Towson (N), Arkansas State)

The Owls, now under the tutelage of former Florida assistant Dusty May, couldn’t build upon a 6-6 start in Michael Curry’s final season, as they finished 12-19. Fully half of FAU’s non-league wins came against visiting non-D1 opponents—and such teams will comprise 75% of the Owls’ 2018-19 non-conference home schedule. Three Power 7 road trips—with the short excursions to Miami and UCF the most dangerous—and short flight east for the Islands of the Bahamas Showcase—which has a similar field to last season’s Gulf Coast Showcase (where the Owls went 1-2)—are the most noteworthy matchups on this 13-game lineup.

195. UAB Blazers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (Memphis, @Troy, Alabama A&M, New Orleans) and 1 loss (@Auburn)

Rob Eshan’s Blazers managed to win 20 games, including nine in non-conference play, despite going 0-3 at the Cayman Islands Classic before Thanksgiving. And with a quarterfinal against Elite Eight qualifier Florida State and a second day matchup against either 2018 CAA champ College of Charleston or at-large contender LSU (and I haven’t even mentioned who could await on day three in Orlando), a similar result is possible for UAB at this November’s exempt event—the Advocare Invitational.

But with seven true home games, a pair of winnable road contests, and Auburn visiting Birmingham this time around, UAB could once again find itself with nine or 10 wins heading into league play, even if Thanksgiving weekend turns into one to forget for the Blazers.

212. Rice Owls

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@Northwestern State, St. Edward’s) and 2 losses (UTRGV, Texas State)

The Owls won just seven games in Scott Pera’s first season at Tudor Fieldhouse, a 16-game decline from Mike Rhoades’ final season in charge before his departure for VCU. Rice won just three non-league games last fall, with only a November 17th win at Northwestern State coming against D1 opposition. While the home schedule alone dictates that Rice should head into C-USA play with more wins than they owned a season ago, the biggest news here is on the road side of the schedule. As part of an exempt tournament and three-game, multi-year series, crosstown rival Houston is back on the Owls’ slate for the first time since December 2014.

227. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 0 wins and 2 losses (Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana)

Eric Konkol’s squad won 17 games a season ago, which has to be considered a disappointment, since the Bulldogs won nine non-conference games and claimed two tournament trophies (Cancun Challenge and New Orleans Shootout) last fall. Louisiana Tech should be able to match last season’s start, thanks to seven home games and two winnable contests at Delaware‘s exempt event. But four losses look baked in, as the other road games are all against truly quality opponents.

284. FIU Panthers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Florida Memorial, @USF, FGCU) and 2 losses (@Milwaukee, @North Florida)

Like their rivals from Boca Raton, the Panthers will be led by a new coach this season, with former VCU assistant Jeremy Ballard taking over from Anthony Evans after a lackluster 14-18 2017-18. Also like FAU, FIU claimed six non-league wins, with three of those coming against non-D1 opponents. Four such games appear on the Panthers’ seven-game home slate (at least FIU is giving its fans a little more reason to turn out for than their neighbors). On the flip side, the Panthers will play just one Power 7 road game (Arkansas), though they’ll also play three games in the Bronx as part of Fordham’s round-robin exempt tournament.

307. North Texas Mean Green

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Indiana State) and 2 losses (@Oklahoma, @UT Arlington)

Grant McCasland’s first Mean Green squad won 20 games and claimed the CBI title, a fine result for a team that finished the regular season 15-17. Expectations are higher in Denton—and this schedule should do little to reduce them. The Mean Green will spend the first weekend of the season in Hawai’i for the Rainbow Classic and not long after their return they’ll play a trio of winnable home games by serving as the subhost for N.C. State‘s MTE. (Note that UNT will not travel to Raleigh.) Besides the trip to Honolulu, road games at Oklahoma and New Mexico will be tests, as will a December visit from Metroplex rival UT Arlington.

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