For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

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Ranking The Teams

San Diego State’s win over Nevada in the 2018 Mountain West Tournament semifinals all but assured the conference would earn two NCAA bids for the first time since 2015. However, last season’s performance was a far cry from the nine bids the Mountain West racked up between the 2012 and 2013 NCAAs.

The conference rose to eighth in the four-year ranking heading into this season, though the Atlantic 10’s poor performance in 2017-18 is more responsible for that than anything the Mountain West did. But that’s not to say the conference didn’t improve a bit. Sure, San Diego State fell out of the top 50, but thanks to an 11-spot jump by UNLV, nine of the league’s 11 teams now rank in the top 150—with Air Force and San Jose State the exceptions. Plus, Nevada’s strong performance last season saw its position improve by 51 places alone. With the Wolf Pack projected as a top 10 team heading into 2018-19, they help lift the Mountain West to higher elevations all on their own.

Nevada is a preseason top 10 team—both in the polls and KenPom’s projections. In the latter’s case, that means the Wolf Pack are expected to outperform their four-year ranking by a considerable margin. But only Nevada and struggling Air Force are projected to improve upon their recent performances in 2018-19, as KenPom projects the Mountain West’s other nine teams, including 2018 tournament winner San Diego State, to see a decline in their fortunes relative to the past four seasons.

Ranking The Schedules

Last season, the Mountain West’s scheduling averages ranked among the bottom third nationally, thanks to the fact that three teams had slates that ranked among the nation’s bottom 50. This season, however, no team owns a schedule that bad. But with only Nevada’s non-conference slate ranking among the top 100 and only four conference members finding themselves in the top half of Division I (with Boise State and UNLV just missing), the Mountain West’s gains are limited to a rise to the middle of the Division I ranks.

Note: The number of asterisks (*) represent the number of pending games on a team’s schedule.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

Only Nevada and San Jose State over-scheduled this season, and in the case of the Wolf Pack, they probably wish they had been able to put a few more points between their non-conference strength of schedule and four-year ranking—for March purposes. San Diego State and New Mexico are the two biggest disappointments on this list, though the Aztecs could pick up some useful games in the Maui Jim Maui Invitational. Boise State and Wyoming also under-did things this season, which could cause both trouble if they find themselves in contention during league play.

The Mountain West saw its totals in each of these categories remain largely steady when compared to last year—with a nearly insignificant increase of one true home game, a more significant rise of two in the Power 7 home game category, an increase of one Power 7 road game, and a drop of two in the non-D1 home game category.

Thanks to its move to 20 conference games, the Big Sky has been displaced at the top of this table by the WCC. While the latter conference’s total remained steady with 16 non-league games against Mountain West opponents, the former’s number tumbled from 17 to 10. The “Non-D1” group dropped out of the top five, replaced by the Big West. Naturally, the Pac-12 is most popular power conference for Mountain West teams to schedule, with the other six not combining for anything close to its total of 13.

Four conferences are completely missing from Mountain West schedules, including the Atlantic 10, though the two leagues could meet five times in the latter stages of exempt tournaments. The eighth and ninth-ranked conferences in the four-year rankings could meet more frequently in the future, however, as the two are reportedly discussing a challenge series that would start next season. That event would replace the Missouri Valley/Mountain West Challenge that ends this season.

Pacific will play five separate Mountain West foes, while the Tigers’ WCC rivals from BYU appear four times. Nevada will help its at-large case by playing three Pac-12 squads alone. None of the other teams that scheduled a trio of teams from other conferences—San Jose State (Big Sky), San Diego State (SWAC), and UNLV (WCC)—did quite so well.

Mountain West teams will play nearly as many top 100 opponents at home (13) as on the road (14), though San Diego State’s Maui Jim Maui Invitational quarterfinal against Duke is the only set top 10 game on the league’s collective non-conference slate. (The Aztecs could meet Gonzaga on day three, if the two’s results match up.) Despite the presence of eight Quad 1 and 2 home games, Mountain West home schedules suffer because of the 55 contests scheduled against teams that either fall under Quad 4 or outside of Division I entirely. Just five such games are scheduled for road or neutral locations.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

52. Nevada Wolf Pack

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@Pacific, Southern Illinois (N)) and 1 loss (Loyola Chicago (N))

Not surprisingly, Eric Musselman’s Wolf Pack had some trouble building a schedule truly worthy of a team projected to be in the top 5 or 10 nationally following last season’s march to the Sweet Sixteen. But this is still a challenging slate, thanks to a visit from former Mountain West member BYU, a trio of games against Pac-12 opponents (Arizona State in L.A. and USC and Utah on the road), along with the highly-anticipated rematch with Loyola Chicago at Gentile Arena in the Missouri Valley Challenge. While this slate should prepare Nevada more than adequately for an improved Mountain West, I am a little concerned it could limit the Pack’s seeding when March arrives.

148. San Diego State Aztecs

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@San Diego, Gonzaga) and 1 loss (California)

Brian Dutcher got the Aztecs back to the NCAA Tournament in his first season, but this schedule means SDSU might have to repeat as Mountain West Tournament champs to earn a return trip. Facing Duke and then either Xavier or Auburn could push San Diego State into an unfavorable day three matchup at the Maui Jim Maui Invitational. And barring a surprising performance in Lahaina, there’s not much else on this slate beyond the visit from BYU and Missouri Valley Challenge matchup with contender Illinois State. That means the Aztecs could have to make a strong run through an improved Mountain West to remain in the bid picture during the season’s closing stages.

166. Fresno State Bulldogs

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Weber State, @Long Beach State, @Cal Poly) and 0 losses

With the Bulldogs headed to Fullerton for the Wooden Legacy, Justin Hutson’s first Fresno State squad will only leave the Golden State once before Mountain West play tips off—to play TCU on November 15th. And that type of schedule should help the former San Diego State assistant build on what Rodney Terry had going before his departure for UTEP. A season ago, Fresno State went 10-3 in non-conference play, with two of those losses coming to Power 7 foes Arkansas and Oregon. This season’s Bulldog squad will host California, projected to finish near the bottom of the Pac-12, and face Northwestern, likely a second division squad in the Big Ten, in the quarterfinals in Orange County.

172. Utah State Aggies

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Montana State, Mississippi Valley State, UC Irvine) and 2 losses (@Weber State, BYU)

Craig Smith, last seen taking South Dakota to 48 wins over two seasons, replaces Tim Duryea after a 17-17 campaign. The Aggies were rather average during non-conference play a season ago, winning seven of 13, highlighted by victories over Northeastern and New Hampshire in the Phil Knight Invitational’s subregional in Nashville. It will be difficult for Utah State to improve on 2017’s performance, thanks to a slightly tougher slate, which will not only see the Aggies travel to BYU and Houston but also serve as a host school for the MGM Resorts Main Event in Las Vegas. There, a second night showdown against either Arizona State or Mississippi State, a pair of possible NCAA at-large squads, awaits no matter the result of State’s semifinal against Saint Mary’s.

177. Boise State Broncos

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (Illinois State (N), Loyola Marymount, @Oregon, Grand Canyon) and 0 losses

A Mountain West Tournament quarterfinal loss to Utah State ended the Broncos’ NCAA hopes, as Leon Rice’s team ended up in the NIT despite 23 wins, including victories over Loyola Chicago and at Oregon. The road to an at-large will be a bit more difficult for Boise State this season, even with the presence of a puzzling home-and-home series with the Ducks and the Broncos’ participation in what should be an excellent Cayman Islands Classic. That’s because of a home schedule that won’t provide much of a challenge beyond the visit from the Ducks and the unhelpful assignment of Drake in the Missouri Valley Challenge. Boise State will likely need to win a couple of quality games in the Caymans, nick a win from an Oregon squad that’s likely to be among the Pac-12’s best, and get some quality wins in an improved Mountain West to be a factor come Selection Sunday.

180. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Southern Utah, Illinois (N), @Pacific) and 0 losses

Marvin Menzies’ second season in charge at the Thomas & Mack resulted in 20 victories—a nine-win improvement over season one for the former New Mexico State man. A full 11 of those victories were the result of a rather soft non-conference slate, a charge that could be leveled against this one. However, a visit from Cincinnati, a trio of games in the Diamond Head Classic (starting with a tricky quarterfinal against host Hawai’i) and T-Mobile Arena showdown with BYU mean the Runnin’ Rebels will have a few more chances to pick up some quality non-league wins than they did a year ago.

202. New Mexico Lobos

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 0 wins and 4 losses (@New Mexico State, @UTEP, @Colorado, New Mexico State)

Even though the Lobos are not participating in an exempt event this season, as the round-robin that was supposed to surround New Mexico’s game against Saint Mary’s in Los Angeles fell though, Paul Weir’s squad will play 12 non-conference games, not 11. That’s because the NCAA approved a waiver for the December 30th game scheduled against NAIA Southwest at Hobbs High School, to honor the school’s legendary head coach, Ralph Tasker. Otherwise, Weir’s second squad—pegged as an at-large contender—has built a fairly challenging schedule, highlighted by that game against the Gaels, the traditional home-and-home with archrival New Mexico State and home matchups against Colorado, MAAC contender Iona, C-USA threat North Texas, and defending Ivy champ Penn.

221. Colorado State Rams

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Colorado, Long Beach State) and 3 losses (Tulane (N), @New Mexico State, @Arkansas)

After spending one season at Drake—improving the Bulldogs’ win total by 10—Niko Medved relocated to Fort Collins to take over a program reeling from an 11-win campaign that saw Larry Eustachy forced out due to a misconduct investigation. Seven of the Rams’ 11 wins last season came during non-conference play, with a 72-63 victory over Colorado the highlight. Another Power 7 team will visit Moby Arena, the Arkansas squad that hammered CSU by 26 in Fayetteville a season ago. Beyond that matchup, the other highlight of Medved’s first Ram slate is a trip to Southwest Florida for the Gulf Coast Showcase, though a quarterfinal against Sun Belt power Louisiana will likely knock Colorado State down to a consolation bracket full of body clock-unfriendly early starts.

233. Air Force Falcons

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Texas State, @Denver, Johnson & Wales (Colo.) and 4 losses (Pacific, @Colorado, @UC Riverside, Army West Point (N))

Since winning 18 games in 2012-13, Dave Piliopvich’s Falcons have either won 12 or 14 games in the subsequent five seasons—with the last two seasons ending with the lower of those two totals. Air Force broke even in non-conference play a season ago, with all six wins coming in either Colorado Springs or Denver. If the Falcons sweep their home games, including a visit from Colorado of the Pac-12, they’ll be set to head into Mountain West play at 6-6 again. To improve upon that projected record, they’ll need to win a game or two at the Bimini Jam, where NCAA Tournament darling UMBC and South Dakota are the most difficult opposition that awaits, or win one of their three true road games, though a victory at Michigan is highly unlikely.

221. San Jose State Spartans

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (@Santa Clara) and 2 losses (@Southern Utah, @Saint Mary’s)

Dave Wojcik departed San Jose after a 14-win season in 2016-17, with the Spartans poised to finally, perhaps, maybe achieve a level of respectability. Under Jean Prioleau, a late hire in the 2017-18 offseason, the Spartans struggled mightily, winning just four games overall, and three in non-league play. Even with six home games, SJSU will be hard pressed to improve upon that trio of victories, as three games in the home gyms of the Bay Area’s basketball powers and another three in the Bahamas for the Junkanoo Jam mean the Spartans will yet again struggle mightily during November and December.

258. Wyoming Cowboys

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 0 wins and 3 losses (@Oregon State, @Denver, @South Carolina)

Allen Edwards’ Cowboys have won at least 20 in both of his seasons in charge, though last season’s victory total was a decline of three when compared to 2016-17. Wyoming started off with nine non-conference wins, capped by a berth in the Cayman Islands Classic final (a loss to Cincinnati). Equalling that total will be a challenge, even with SEC contender South Carolina‘s visit to Laramie offering the Cowboys an upset opportunity, thanks to Wyoming’s participation in a pair of tournaments. In November’s Fort Myers Tip-Off, the Pokes open with Boston College, an NCAA threat from the ACC, while in the Sun Bowl Classic before Christmas, SoCon contender ETSU will serve as the first opponent in El Paso.

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