For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

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Ranking The Teams

From 2008 through 2014, the America East champion consistently earned either a 15 or 16 seed. Then for three straight years, Albany, Stony Brook, and Vermont broke through for a 14 and a pair of 13s in succession. So, naturally, the first America East team to win a non-Opening Round/First Four NCAA game since 2005 would be history-making UMBC as a 16.

Given the team scores below, this season’s champ is probably destined for another 15 or 16, unless Vermont, Albany, or a Retriever team eager to build on 2018 sweeps both America East crowns. Heading into 2018-19, only four of the conference’s nine members rank among the bottom 50 in Division I, not the five of a season ago—thanks to UMBC’s rise.

According to KenPom’s preseason rankings, four teams, including UMBC, are expected to over-perform their four-year rankings. Hartford, the preseason favorite of many, is projected to make a quantum leap of over 100 places. On the other hand, three of the America East’s perennial powers—Albany, Stony Brook, and Vermont—are all expected to struggle relative to their recent histories.

Ranking The Schedules

With only Vermont’s schedule ranked in the top 200 nationally and six America East members’ non-league slates among the bottom 100, it’s not a surprise that the conference ranks near the bottom across the board—for the second year running. The weakness of the brackets for Albany, Hartford, and Stony Brook’s exempt events further deflate theirs—and by extension, the league’s—maximum schedule strength.

Note: The number of asterisks (*) represent the number of pending games on a team’s schedule.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

America East under-schedulers edge over-schedulers by a five-to-four margin this season. Not surprisingly, Vermont overdid things by the most respectable amount as a top 80 team with a schedule with an average rank that’s just outside the top 40. UMBC naturally struggled to get games immediately after their March Madness heroics, while Albany’s slate looks like one that should get the Great Danes through some potentially tough times. As for preseason favorite Hartford, their 227th-ranked slate would be challenging for a bottom 50 team but should be just fine for a team expected to contend for conference honors.

The America East saw both its numbers of true home games (56 in 2017-18) and Power 7 road games (20 a season ago) drop, while Boston College won’t be visiting Hartford this time around. At least the conference’s nine teams were able to keep the total of non-D1 home games steady from last season, at 14.

Last season, the NEC provided the most non-conference games to the America East, but the MAAC jumped all the way from fifth to take the crown this time around. Still, the same five Eastern Seaboard leagues—the A 10, Ivy, MAAC, NEC, and Patriot—join the America East’s non-D1 foes to make up the top six for the second season in a row.

A whopping five America East squads will play Quinnipiac from the MAAC, while four appear on the schedules of Dartmouth, Sacred Heart, and former league rival Boston University.

Vermont’s visit from 2018 NCAA at-large squad St. Bonaventure is the America East’s lone non-conference home game that might fall within quadrant 1 or 2, though admittedly my KenPom-based rankings might not necessarily correspond to the NCAA’s new NET ratings.

On the average America East non-conference schedule, 10 or 11 of the 12 to 13 games are likely to fall under quadrants 3 or 4, or not count at all, as they’ll feature non-D1 opposition and not factor in the rankings at all. That’s a formula for seed deflation come March.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

42. Vermont Catamounts

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (@Yale, @Harvard, @Dartmouth) and 3 losses (@Bucknell, @Northeastern, St. Bonaventure (N))

John Becker’s Catamounts again have a schedule that should put them in position to earn a 13 seed (at worst) provided they claim the America East’s auto bid in March. And that’s not a sure thing, as we all learned in 2018. Unfortunately, struggles in putting together the NIT Season Tip-Off field means Vermont won’t get much benefit from its participation in the event—unless the Catamounts happen to win at either Kansas or Louisville.

But with Bucknell, Harvard, Lipscomb, Northeastern, St. Bonaventure, and Yale all on the schedule—and all of those save the ASUN champs visit Burlington—UVM could have a sneaky good NET ranking once the spring arrives.

228. Hartford Hawks

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Central Connecticut State, Sacred Heart) and 4 losses (Bryant, Wagner, Boston College, Quinnipiac)

A season ago, the Hawks won 19 games and fell in the first round of the CollegeInsider.com Tournament. But while Hartford broke even in its non-conference games in 2017, it didn’t do all that well against the teams that return to this season’s slate. Making matters worse, Central Connecticut State is the only one of the six who will return to Chase Arena this time around.

A trip to Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on Duke and an intriguing Middleweight Bracket at the MGM Resorts Main Event are the highlights of the pre-America East schedule that awaits John Gallagher’s squad as it prepares for an America East title challenge.

240. Binghamton Bearcats

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 6 wins (Morgan State, Hartwick, Colgate, Army West Point, @Loyola (Md.), @Sacred Heart) and 2 losses (@Cornell, LIU Brooklyn)

While Tommy Dempsey’s Bearcats won just two America East games a season ago (missing the conference playoffs as a result), they started off relatively well, winning nine of their 15 non-league contests. And that victory total included a half-dozen wins over teams who reappear on this year’s slate. Unfortunately for Tommy Dempsey’s squad, three of those rematches are slated to take place away from Vestal.

Binghamton will play three home games as part of its Central New York-focused MTE—as will NJIT, a team decidedly not located in the region. However, the Highlanders will visit the Events Center for their lone road game in the round-robin.

268. Stony Brook Seawolves

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Brown) and 3 losses (@LIU Brooklyn, Hofstra, Norfolk State)

Jeff Boals’ second season in charge on Long Island saw a five-victory decline from his first. And with 10 non-conference games away from the Seawolves’ home court, improvement might not be seen until league play. The good news for Stony Brook is that both of their island rivals visit this season and the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Springfield Bracket provides a pair of winnable games.

272. Maine Black Bears

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (@Quinnpiac, Maine-Machias) and 3 losses (@Fordham, Dartmouth, @Central Connecticut State)

The Black Bears won just six games a season ago, with their three league wins pushing them past Binghamton and into the America East playoffs. But Maine last won more than 10 games in 2012-13 and this road-heavy schedule won’t put them on the path to breaking their streak of single-digit-win seasons. New coach Richard Barron, formerly coach of UMaine’s women’s squad, has his work cut out for him in Orono/Bangor.

297. Albany Great Danes

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 8 wins (Iona, @Boston University, Yale, Oneonta, @Dartmouth, @Holy Cross, Canisius, Kent State) and 1 loss (@Monmouth)

I was a bit surprised to see the Great Danes dropped into the lower-tier Samson bracket at the Belfast Basketball Classic, and Will Brown’s team shouldn’t fear any of their potential opponents in Northern Ireland. Based on last season’s results, that should apply to most of the names on this list, with the possible exception of the Big East’s Providence.

299. UMBC Retrievers

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (Shenandoah, Coppin State, Northern Kentucky, Centenary (N.J.) and 1 loss (@Towson)

Now you honestly didn’t think that the first 16 seed to defeat a 1 was going to have teams knocking down its door for games, did you? Still, the Retrievers were tabbed as the first visitor to the Marquette’s new home. That Opening Night treat, a trip to Penn State, and a Cinderella showdown with FGCU should also keep Ryan Odom and the Retrievers in the national conversation. Additionally, three winnable games at the Bimini Jam should help prepare UMBC for another March run.

301. New Hampshire Wildcats

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Bryant, Dartmouth) and 4 losses (American, Boston University, Niagara, @Fairfield)

Bill Herrion’s Wildcats will open this season seeking to end a six-game skid. Unfortunately, that was UNH’s second such streak of the 2017-18 season, as they dropped a half-dozen in November, including all four games played as part of the Cats’ participation in the Phil Knight Invitational. New Hampshire foregoes an MTE this season and this 13-game schedule offers the Wildcats plenty of opportunities for wins, though trips to UConn and Seton Hall are notable exceptions.

347. UMass Lowell River Hawks

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (UMass Boston, Loyola (Md.), Boston University) and 6 losses (@UMass, Sacred Heart, @NJIT, @Wagner, @Brown, Central Connecticut State)

The River Hawks have been consistent 10-to-12 game winners since their arrival on the Division I scene in 2013-14. This schedule could help push Pat Duquette’s squad to greater heights, even with the presence of eight true road trips and a further pair of games in Providence as part of Brown’s on-campus MTE.

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