For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2018-19 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

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Ranking The Teams

When considering the four-year rankings, no conference improved from top to bottom as much as the Big Sky did over the past year, and that’s with 2017 NCAA rep North Dakota departing for the Summit League. Of course, the Fighting Hawks win total dropped by 10 last season, so they would have weighed the league down a bit had they stuck around. Montana’s 14 seed a season ago was pretty typical for the Big Sky, with just four league reps earning anything higher (a 13 in all cases) over the past 10 seasons. With the Grizzlies the conference’s only team in the top 150, I wouldn’t expect that to change come March 2019.

Might the Big Sky find itself at the higher end of its historic seeding range this year? Based on KenPom’s preseason projections, that’s a distinct possibility, particularly with defending champion Montana outperforming its four-year ranking by a whopping 43 places. Heading into 2018-19, eight of the conference’s 11 teams are expected to perform better than they have over the past four seasons, with five of those projected to be 39 or more spots better.

Ranking The Schedules

A season ago, the Big Sky found itself in the top 10 across the board in terms of its member’s average non-conference schedule strength. But with the expansion of the league schedule to 20 games and some serious variance in the teams’ bracketed exempt events, the conference’s ranks for 2018 are a bit more average when compared to the rest of Division I.

With five teams’ national average ranks in the top 150 and six teams in the bottom 150, it’s not much of a surprise to find the Big Sky near the middle of the pack.

Note: The number of asterisks (*) represent the number of pending games on a team’s schedule.

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

Just three Big Sky teams under-scheduled this season, with Weber State and Idaho being particularly disappointing. Defending champ and preseason favorite Montana over-scheduled by 47 spots, which should help them prepare for another postseason run, while another contender, Eastern Washington, might have overdone things a bit, thanks to their 97-place gap.

With North Dakota’s departure, the Big Sky is down to 11 teams. As a result, the conference decided to go from 18 league contests to 20. Naturally, that saw the number of available non-conference dates for each team fall from 11, 12, or 13 down to 9, 10, or 11. That means every single one of these categories is lower than it was a season ago.

While the Big Sky’s members will play six fewer games against non-D1 foes than a season ago, these opponents still lead the way when compared to Division I leagues. Naturally, Western leagues dominate Big Sky schedules, though the West Coast Conference provides the most opponents by itself this season, as Mountain West teams are playing seven fewer games against conference foes than in 2017, costing the league a share of second. While 10 conferences didn’t provide set opposition to Big Sky squads a season ago, that number has leapt to 13 for 2018-19.

UC Santa Barbara (five games) and non-D1 Bethesda (four) are auditioning for associate Big Sky membership, while North Dakota plays a pair of former league rivals, thanks to the Hawks’ participation in the Big Sky/Summit Challenge.

A plurality of the Big Sky’s paltry total of home games will come against non-D1 opposition. Making matters worse, both Idaho and Portland State will play non-D1 opponents on a neutral floor in Boise, as part of the Vandals’ Thanksgiving tournament.

While Big Sky members will play just a pair of top 100 home games, they’ll play 20 such games away from home with no top 100 contests set for neutral sites.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Super Average Schedule Ranking. The number in front of an opponent name is its Four-Year Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

61. Eastern Washington Eagles

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 2 wins (Walla Walla, @Stanford) and 3 losses (@Washington, @Seattle, @San Francisco)

The Eagles won 20 in Shantay Legans’ first season, highlighted by 13 regular-season Big Sky wins, a berth in the conference title game, and a non-conference victory at Stanford. But that win in Palo Alto was just one of five non-league wins for EWU in 2017. And a repeat performance is possible here, thanks to four Power 7 road games and a difficult draw in the Summit Challenge—as the Eagles drew both North Dakota State and South Dakota State.

At least Eastern Washington gets to host the 2K Empire Classic subregional. The Eagles won the trophy when they hosted the Legends Classic equivalent in November 2016.

71. Montana Grizzlies

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (UC Irvine) and 1 loss (@Georgia State)

It would be a shock if the defending Big Sky champs didn’t pick up another trophy in mid-November, as the Grizzlies will be heavily favored to win the Islands of the Bahamas Showcase. On the other hand, they won’t be expected to pick up wins at Creighton and Arizona, but with both of those teams likely to be rebuilding a bit, surprises might be possible. Like EWU, Montana drew the Summit League’s Dakota powers in the challenge series, while a visit from Georgia State and trip to UC Irvine round out the Division I portion of a solid mid-major non-conference schedule. Well done, Travis DeCuire and staff.

87. Idaho State Bengals

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Bethesda) and 1 loss (Utah Valley)

Bill Evans’ Bengals have alternated double-digit win seasons with single-digit ones in his six seasons in Pocatello—and if that pattern continues, Idaho State will likely struggle to match last season’s win total of 14. The road trips on this slate alone, particularly the first two listed above, mean the Bengals will have to do serious work in Big Sky play to end their alternating trend.

126. Montana State Bobcats

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 3 wins (Omaha (N), Denver, North Dakota) and 5 losses (@Utah State, UC Santa Barbara, @Omaha, @North Dakota, North Dakota (N))

Brian Fish’s Bobcats will see plenty of familiar faces during their non-conference schedule this season, thanks in no small part to their Summit Challenge matchups, which feature an Omaha squad Montana State played in a virtual home-and-home last fall and former league rival North Dakota. Two of the more unfamiliar names, Indiana and Arkansas, are the biggest challenges on this list, as those two squads anchor MSU’s exempt event. Note that a semi-road game against Washington State gives the Bobcats a slightly better than normal chance at a Power 7 win.

144. Portland State Vikings

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 6 wins (@Portland, Willamette, @UC Riverside, Stanford (N), Portland Bible, @Loyola Marymount) and 1 loss (@Oregon)

Last season, the Vikings took advantage of their participation in the Phil Knight Invitational to put mighty scares into both Duke and Butler before ultimately defeating Stanford on the event’s final day. Barret Peery’s squad couldn’t maintain that level of consistency all season, even though they did win 20 games when all was said and done. Maybe this slate, which features a trio of tricky road games, but a lack of the ESPN spotlight, will allow the 2018-19 Vikings to grow at their own pace.

209. Northern Colorado Bears

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 4 wins (@Pepperdine, Denver, @Wyoming, @San Diego) and 0 losses

Fresh off a 26-win season and CollegeInsider.com Tournament title, the Bears will be looking to topple their ursine rivals from Missoula in the league race this time around. And the “other” UNC didn’t just hit that lofty win total by winning a bunch of postseason games either—the Bears went 9-4 in non-league play. They might struggle to match that total this season, thanks to six road games, including one at Texas Tech. A second consecutive MTE title may also be a tough ask, thanks to some poor bracketing in the Las Vegas Classic, which sees Northern Colorado face MAAC favorite Rider in the semifinals.

235. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (@Jacksonville) and 2 losses (@Santa Clara, South Dakota)

Since winning 23 games in their CollegeInsider.com Tournament runner-up season of 2014-15, the Lumberjacks have won just 19 games in the following three campaigns. That means the pressure is definitely on head coach Jack Murphy as he enters his seventh season. But eight road games in 10 contests (permitted since NAU travels to Hawai’i) means the ‘Jacks will be hard-pressed to even equal their three non-league wins of a season ago.

242. Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 5 wins (San Jose State, @Pepperdine, San Diego Christian, Long Beach State, Central Michigan) and 0 losses

While the Thunderbirds won just 13 games a season ago, six of those victories came before Big Sky play—with five of those opponents returning to this season’s slate. But don’t necessarily look for a repeat, as Todd Simon’s squad will play two fewer non-conference home games than they did in 2017.

289. Weber State Wildcats

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Utah State) and 3 losses (@Fresno State, @Utah Valley, BYU (N))

Yawn. All Randy Rahe’s Wildcats did was win 20 games for the eighth time in his 12 seasons in charge, though a conference quarterfinal loss to Northern Colorado undoubtedly left Weber State hungry to topple both the Bears and Montana in the league race this time around. Six in-state games, a pair of winnable games in California, and round-robin event in the Bahamas should prepare the Wildcats well for a title challenge. But you’ll want to keep an eye on BYU‘s visit to Ogden, as the Cougars are likely to be Gonzaga‘s primary challenger in the WCC—and an at-large threat—this time around.

306. Idaho Vandals

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 5 wins (Santa Clara (N), @Nicholls State, Washington State, @North Dakota, North Dakota) and 3 losses (Cal State Bakersfield (N), @Cal State Bakersfield, UC Irvine (N))

Like EWU, the Vandals both won 20+ games and defeated a Pac-12 foe, though Idaho took out Washington State in Moscow, not eight miles down the road in Pullman. Don Verlin’s squad heads across the border this time, with that contest and one at UC Irvine looking like the most daunting ones on a slate that will see Idaho play seven games in state.

314. Sacramento State Hornets

Record against returning opponents from 2017-18: 1 win (Cal State Northridge) and 4 losses (UC Davis (N), @Cal State Fullerton, Portland (N), UC Santa Barbara)

Last season, the Hornets participated in a bracketed exempt tournament for the first time, going 0-3 in the Wooden Legacy after serving as a late call-up after DePaul got called up to the Phil Knight Invitational to replace Georgetown. That’s an innovation that the 7-win Hornets aren’t repeating this season. It’s now been four years since Sacramento State’s 21-12 campaign, the lone winning record Brian Katz’s team has posted in his 10 years at the helm. This California-heavy schedule might just get them back on track, however.

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