FanPost

Schmolik 64 Update (3/3/17)

Hello, college basketball fans!

We're getting closer and closer to Selection Sunday. This weekend the major conferences play their regular season finales while several mid majors begin their conference tournaments (and the MVC's final is Sunday).

Midwest Regional
Kansas City
Thur/Sat March 23-25
Tulsa 1 Kansas 27-3
Fri/Sun March 17-19 16
8 Virgina Tech 21-8
9 Arkansas 22-8
Milwaukee 5 Minnesota 23-7
Thur/Sat March 16-18 12 Nevada 24-6
4 Virginia 20-9
13 Bucknell 24-8
Greenville, SC 6 SMU 26-4
Fri/Sun March 17-19 11 Seton Hall 19-10
3 Duke 23-7
14 Winthrop 22-6
Sacramento 7 Dayton 23-5
Fri/Sun March 18-20 10 Marquette 18-11
2 UCLA 27-3
15 Oakland 22-7
East Regional
New York
Fri/Sun March 24-26
Buffalo 1 Villanova 27-3
Thur/Sat March 16-18 16
8 Michigan State 18-12
9 Syracuse 17-13
Orlando 5 Notre Dame 23-7
Thur/Sat March 16-18 12 UT-Arlington 22-6
4 Florida 24-6
13 Princeton 18-6
Indianapolis 6 Cincinnati 26-4
Fri/Sun March 17-19 11
3 Louisville 23-7
14 Belmont 21-5
Tulsa 7 Maryland 22-7
Fri/Sun March 17-19 10 Providence 19-11
2 Baylor 23-6
15 South Dakota 19-10
South Regional
Memphis
Fri/Sun March 24-26
Greenville, SC 1 North Carolina 24-6
Fri/Sun March 17-19 16 Texas Southern 18-11
8 VCU 23-7
9 South Carolina 21-8
Buffalo 5 Purdue 24-6
Thur/Sat March 16-18 12 Middle Tennessee 25-4
4 West Virginia 23-7
13 Monmouth 26-5
Salt Lake City 6 St. Mary's 26-3
Thur/Sat March 16-18 11 Xavier 18-12
3 Arizona 26-4
14 Akron 22-7
Indianapolis 7 Wisconsin 22-8
Fri/Sun March 17-19 10 Wichita State 26-4
2 Butler 23-6
15 Florida Gulf Coast 22-7
West Regional
San Jose
Thur/Sat March 23-25
Salt Lake City 1 Gonzaga 29-1
Thur/Sat March 16-18 16 UC Irvine 16-13
8 Oklahoma State 19-10
9 Northwestern 21-9
Orlando 5 Iowa State 20-9
Thur/Sat March 16-18 12 UNC Wilmington 24-5
4 Florida State 23-7
13 Vermont 26-5
Milwaukee 6 Creighton 22-7
Thur/Sat March 16-18 11
3 Kentucky 25-5
14 East Tennessee State 22-7
Sacramento 7 Miami 20-9
Fri/Sun March 18-20 10 Michigan 19-11
2 Oregon 25-4
15 Cal State Bakersfield 18-7

Play In Games
Dayton NC Central 19-7
Tue March 17 16 Mt. St. Mary's 17-15
Dayton North Dakota 15-8
Wed March 18 16 New Orleans 14-10
Dayton W Wake Forest 17-12
Tue March 17 11 Illinois 17-12
Dayton MW Illinois State 24-5
Wed March 18 11 Vanderbilt 16-14

ACC: 10 (UNC, FSU, Lville, Duke, ND, Va, Mia, VaT, Syr, WF)

Big Ten: 8 (Pur, Wisc, Minn, Md, MSU, Mich, NW, Ill)

Big East: 7 (Vill, Creig, But, Xav, SH, Prov, Marq)

Big 12: 5 (Kan, Bay, WV, ISU, OkSt)

SEC: 5 (Fla, Ky, SC, Ark, Vbilt)

Pac 12: 3 (Ariz, Ore, UCLA)

WCC: 2 (Gonz, St. M)

AAC: 2 (Cin, SMU)

A-10: 2 (VCU, Day)

MVC: 2 (Wich St, Ill St)

One Bid Conferences: 22

Highest RPI (courtesy of CBS Sports.com) left out: USC (38), RI (44), Ga (51), Hou (52), Cal (54)

Comments:

North Carolina's loss at Virginia did not cost them a #1 seed since even though Virginia has struggled it is a road loss to a quality opponent. At this time, it did cost them the East Regional as Villanova moves back up to the second overall #1. Right now Villanova has just three losses while North Carolina has six.

The ACC leaderboard behind UNC keeps changing. Both Florida State and Louisville lost and right now Notre Dame is actually second in the ACC over FSU, Lville, and Duke although right now they are sixth in my pecking order in conference. With Duke beating Florida State, the battle for second in the ACC pecking order is up for grabs. Right now Louisville and Duke rank ahead of Florida State. All three play big games this weekend, Florida State hosts Miami, Louisville hosts Notre Dame, and Duke travels to North Carolina. If the home teams win each game, there will be a three way tie (Louisville, Florida State, and Duke) for second place. I would say if Duke beats North Carolina they will jump to second in the ACC pecking order (doesn't necessarily mean they will be a #2 seed).

Right now I still think the gap among the #2, #3, and #4 seeds is still close. Florida State loses at Duke and "falls" from a #2 to a #4. I'm surprised Florida is #3 in the RPI. I still can't put them ahead of Duke and Florida State and right now Kentucky is ahead of them in the SEC standings.

Either Iowa is better than we think or Maryland and Wisconsin aren't good. Wisconsin is all the way down to #43 in the RPI.

The Big East has a lot of bubble teams (Providence, Marquette, Seton Hall, and Xavier). Right now the Musketeers are seventh in the standings, having lost six games in a row although all were to contenders to the NCAA Tournament. DePaul is not an tournament caliber team and if Xavier loses that game they'd be in trouble. In a 10 team tournament the 7th seed has to play the 10th seed (DePaul). Assuming Xavier beats DePaul they would be tied with any team among Seton Hall, Providence, and Marquette. Xavier was swept by Marquette and split with Seton Hall and Providence so they have the best chance of getting stuck with the #7 seed. I would say any of these bubble teams that loses to DePaul in the Big East tournament will probably be out of the NCAA Tournament.

By the time of the next update we will finally know whether Illinois State or Wichita State (or someone else) wins the MVC Tournament. I would say both would have to make the final and lose to the other to make the NCAA's. Illinois State has the better RPI but Wichita State has the better record and even though it shouldn't matter Wichita State would probably get more consideration as an at large team.

I will continue to feel California is ahead of USC in the Pathetic 12 pecking order. It seems extreme to leave Southern Cal out of the tournament. But Cal showed last night they aren't an NCAA team and Cal is better than USC then USC is not an NCAA team. It seems unfair that USC was punished for California's blowout loss but it would also be unfair if USC gets in ahead of Berkeley at this point. Also against both is Cal has no top 25 wins and only one top 50 win (at USC) but while USC has two top 25 wins they only have two top 50 wins. Illnois has five top 50 wins and Vanderbilt has four, including a win at Florida which is as impressive as USC's over UCLA. Illinois has ten wins over the top 100 RPI while Vanderbilt has nine. USC has only five and Berkeley only four. The Pathetic 12 is really hurting USC and Cal, especially Oregon State (RPI #290). Ironically Utah is a game ahead of USC and tied with California and beat both of them (although both games were at Utah). So unless Utah loses and Cal wins, Utah will be the #4 seed, Cal #5, and USC #6. If USC beats UCLA again and Cal loses to Utah (or Oregon State!) in Vegas, I'd probably consider moving USC ahead of Cal. If Cal loses at Colorado then they would fall into a tie with USC (assuming the Trojans beat Washington).

Compare my bracket to others in the Bracket Matrix.

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