For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2017-18 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

Ranking The Teams

In the 2012-13 season, a half-dozen Mountain West teams ranked among KenPom’s top 100, with five securing NCAA Tournament bids. In the four seasons since, just 13 teams total have cracked the top 100, with a mere seven reaching March Madness. Making matters worse, the conference slipped into the one-bid category in each the last two seasons. While San Diego State and Boise State have largely remained consistent, the bottom of the league has struggled mightily and its new members haven’t played up to expectations. And that combination has dropped everyone’s metrics from the highs of five seasons ago.

Ranking The Schedules

Back when the Mountain West consistently earned at-large bids, league members were accused of gaming the RPI to do so. But with the NCAA changing the definition of a quality win for this season, that’s something that won’t be quite so easy to do. Fortunately, my scheduling metric has long emphasized playing games away from home—and with Colorado State and Boise State challenging themselves against Power 7 squads on the road, it’s no surprise that their non-league slates rank at the top of the conference. However, the lack of schedules in the top 50 and the presence of six in the bottom half of Division I—with three among the bottom 50 overall—mean the league might just struggle again to earn at-large attention.

*Denotes team will participate in a bracketed tournament. Reminder: Known Score = known matchups only; Average Score = known games+average of potential bracketed matchups; Maximum Score = known games+games against best potential bracketed matchups; Minimum Score = known games+games against worst potential bracketed matchups

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

Just two teams, Colorado State and Utah State, over-scheduled this season. But of the nine that under-did things, contender San Diego State and rebound candidate UNLV hurt their March chances the most. The Aztecs’ slate is 150-points lower than their four-year ranking, while the Runnin’ Rebels’ is 181 spots lower.

Even though the Mountain West has dropped to one-bid status, the conference still schedules better than most mid-majors. The league’s status high on the Western food chain means the 11 MW squads welcome plenty of mid-major visitors in November and December. And thanks to the presence of some particularly attractive destinations in the league—like Las Vegas and San Diego—Power 7 squads occasionally visit conference arenas as well. Still, it would be nice if Mountain West teams were able to jettison the average of one non-D1 game present on their schedules.

Only four conferences—all located primarily on the East Coast—are absent from Mountain West schedules this season. While the overwhelming majority of non-conference games feature other Western opposition, the number of games against the Big West and WAC is surprisingly low.

Yes, you’re reading that top row correctly—five top 25 teams will visit Mountain West arenas this season. And while that number doesn’t make up for the 56 home games scheduled against teams from outside of the top 150, it’s still an impressive feat for a conference that’s on the edge of mid-major status. Those five contests also serve as opportunities for league members to help push the MW back into the national consciousness early in the season. That’s vital in the race for at-large bids.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Average Schedule Strength National Ranking. Numbers in parentheses are opponent’s Team Score Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net, except for UNLV (RunRebs.com).

Games marked with a ^ are part of the MVC/MW Challenge.

84. Colorado State Rams

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 3 wins (New Mexico State, @Colorado, Arkansas-Fort Smith) and 1 loss (@Long Beach State)

After a 24-win season that ended in the NIT, the Rams are poised to return to the NCAA. Colorado State’s schedule—bolstered the addition of games at Arkansas and Oregon, along with a matchup against Florida State in the Jamaica Classic—should help. Head coach Larry Eustachy even secured home games against Big South champ Winthrop and Southland contender Northwestern State for the two on-campus contests scheduled as part of the Caribbean event. While this slate won’t guarantee that CSU reaches its first NCAA since 2013, the Rams are likely to remain in the national picture all the way through mid-March.

96. Boise State Broncos

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 3 wins (Western Michigan (N), SMU, @Loyola Marymount) and 1 loss (@Oregon)

The most disappointing thing about the Broncos’ schedule is that they didn’t schedule the Loyola (Md.) Greyhounds to complete the Division I Loyola set. As it stands now, Loyola of Chicago and Grand Canyon are the most potentially troublesome visitors for Leon Rice’s team, which is coming off an NIT second round appearance. However, the limited away trips—to Oregon, SMU, and to South Carolina for the relocated Puerto Rico Tip-Off featuring a potential day two meeting with the Gamecocks in their backyard—could really help BSU establish its at-large credentials.

111. New Mexico Lobos

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 2 wins (New Mexico State, UTEP) and 2 losses (@New Mexico State, @Arizona)

After a 17-14 season, Craig Neal departed Albuquerque with New Mexico State coach Paul Weir making the move up the 25 to replace him. That move alone should add some extra spice to the pair’s annual home-and-home series. In other key matchups for the Lobos, Arizona, winners by 31 in Tucson a season ago, visits the Pit, while New Mexico will face two other Power 7 squads away from home. A third such game, against Maryland, is possible if UNM can get past TCU in the semifinals of the Emerald Coast Classic.

117. Utah State Aggies

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (@UC Irvine ) and 2 losses (BYU (N), Weber State)

Originally, the Aggies were supposed to fly out to Hawai’i for the Diamond Head Classic, but after withdrawing from that Christmas week event, Tim Duryea’s team will instead serve as one of the visiting teams for the Phil Knight Invitational. That excursion will take Utah State to Gonzaga, Portland State, and Nashville for a pair of games against Northeastern and New Hampshire. In terms of Beehive State contests, BYU visits Logan, while the Ags will take on Utah in Salt Lake City, but off-campus. Valparaiso is a difficult MVC/MW Challenge draw, considering that the Crusaders reached the NIT last season, while Utah State won just 15 times.

146. Nevada Wolf Pack

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 2 wins (Pacific, UC Irvine) and 0 losses

While Eric Musselman’s squad lost two key senior performers after 2017’s league title and NCAA berth, the Wolf Pack should again be in the thick of the championship chase. In terms of bolstering Nevada’s at-large hopes, five games jump out from this list—the home contests with A 10 challengers Rhode Island and Davidson, the MVC/MW Challenge date with Illinois State, the showdown in LA with NIT champ TCU, and a road matchup against a Texas Tech team that fell out of NCAA contention late last season.

200. San Diego State Aztecs

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 3 wins (San Diego Christian, San Diego, California (N)) and 2 losses (@Gonzaga, Arizona State)

The Aztecs are responsible for one of the five top 25 home games found on Mountain West schedules, as they welcome a Gonzaga team that beat them by 21 in Spokane a season ago to Viejas. Considering the Bulldogs’ personnel changes after their national runner-up finish and SDSU’s home court advantage, the Aztecs might be able to give new coach Brian Dutcher a marquee win. Otherwise, the Aztecs will aim to win at Arizona State and make their way through a challenging, but not overwhelming, Wooden Legacy field as they attempt to build a selection-worthy profile in the first season after Steve Fisher’s retirement.

203. Wyoming Cowboys

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 2 wins (South Dakota State, Denver) and 1 loss (@Pacific)

The 2017 CBI champs would prefer to not defend their title. And a schedule that sees the Cowboys serve as the MW’s representative in the first-ever Cayman Islands Classic and travel to both Oregon State (who should be much improved over last season’s injury-plagued squad) and South Carolina (likely to step back after a surprise Final Four berth) should prepare them for success in Mountain West play. If things break right, perhaps Wyoming will even find itself on the edge of the at-large picture.

243. Fresno State Bulldogs

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (Cal Poly) and 2 losses (@Cal State Bakersfield, @Oregon)

The Bulldogs are another Mountain West team that’s headed to Fayetteville, and the third league squad that will host a top 25 squad—Oregon will be Fresno State’s marquee home opponent for the autumn of 2017. The remaining 10 Division I games feature a variety of names from outside of the Power 7, with a trio of upper-tier mid-major squads joining Rodney Terry’s team in the Cancun Challenge. Might a matchup with former WAC rival Louisiana Tech await Fresno on that tournament’s second day?

319. San José State Spartans

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 3 wins (Santa Clara, Bowling Green, Southern Utah) and 3 losses (Portland, Denver, @Saint Mary’s)

The Spartans won 14 times in what turned out to be Dave Wojcik’s final season in charge, and after his unexpected resignation, it will be up to Jean Prioleau to continue SJSU’s march to respectability. The highlight of this 11-game slate is a an encounter with Saint Mary’s, which will most likely turn into the most one-sided game of the Mountain West’s five top 25 home contests.

335. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (@Southern Utah) and 0 losses

Last season, the Runnin’ Rebels won just 11 games in Marvin Menzies’s first season in charge (and the tumultuous offseason that led to his hire), But thanks to a highly-regarded recruiting class and a non-conference schedule that will see UNLV leave Sin City just once, the Rebels could make a big jump in season two. The highlight of the Thomas & Mack schedule is a visit from Arizona, but UNLV could play a second top 25 Pac-12 squad if it meets Utah on night two of the MGM Resorts Main Event. However, those two games are likely to be the only ones the Rebels play against potential at-large teams before they enter Mountain West play—though the Challenge contest against UNI is a third possibility.

338. Air Force Falcons

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (Johnson & Wales (Colo.) ) and 3 losses (@Army West Point, Denver, Colorado)

Last season, the Falcons managed to win seven non-league games on their way to a 12-victory campaign. And with that many home games alone on this schedule—thanks to four teams visiting as part of an exempt event and a pair of non-D1 contests,—Air Force should equal their November/December total of 2016. The question will then be whether Dave Pilipovich’s squad can improve upon its 2017 Mountain West mark of 4-14.

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