For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2017-18 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

Ranking The Teams

FGCU, the ASUN’s most consistent winner, is the only conference members ranking among Division I’s top half in the four-year rankings. The tenuous positions of Lipscomb, NJIT, and USC Upstate in the Top 250 means that the ASUN is perilously close to having 60 percent of its membership in the bottom 100—and the presence of three in the bottom 50 makes elevating the league’s metrics difficult enough already.

Ranking The Schedules

With none of its eight squads participating in a bracketed tournament, the ASUN is the only league with a completely set non-conference slate. And given the stability of these lineups, it’s not surprising the conference ranks in the top half of Division I in the Known Schedule and Minimum Schedule rankings but lower in the Average and Maximum ones.

While two teams, Jacksonville and Stetson, have schedules in the bottom 50 nationally, five teams rank among the top half of D1. However, only North Florida ranks within the top 100—and among the top 20 in three of the four categories.

*Denotes team will participate in a bracketed tournament. Reminder: Known Score = known matchups only; Average Score = known games+average of potential bracketed matchups; Maximum Score = known games+games against best potential bracketed matchups; Minimum Score = known games+games against worst potential bracketed matchups

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

While the Ospreys lead the way in terms of building a difficult schedule, FGCU is a shining example of how a mid-major contender should put its November and December slate together. Yes, the Eagles are one of three ASUN teams that under-scheduled, but they did so by just three spots. At the other end of the competitive spectrum, Stetson and NJIT also managed to do well in terms of scheduling to their recent performance, as did Jacksonville. However, UNF’s over-scheduling results in the Ospreys owning the largest gap in the conference—the worst of three that extend into triple digits.

As one of Division I’s lower-prestige conferences, the ASUN hits the perfecta of scheduling issues—many road games, relatively few home games, and a high percentage of home games against teams from outside the D1 ranks. Curiously, Stetson gets both Sunshine State American Athletic squads—USF and UCF—to visit DeLand this season. Therefore, the Hatters account for the entirety of the league’s Power 7 home games.

While ASUN members combined to schedule games against all but four, mostly Western, D1 leagues, contests against non-D1 foes dominate. In fact, it’s a bit disconcerting to see so few games on the slate pairing conference members with other Southern mid-major leagues, namely the Big South, SoCon, and Sun Belt, particularly since these conferences cooperate on other fronts.

While ASUN teams’ home and road games approach parity, that wouldn’t be possible without each team scheduling an average of three games against non-D1 foes. Of the 129 games scheduled, exactly 100 will come against teams from outside of the top 100. And of the 29 top 100 contests, just four will be at home and FGCU is responsible for half of that total.

Of course, with the ASUN’s conference season only accounting for 14 games, members are responsible for finding three or four extra contests a season relative to the rest of Division I. Making matters worse, the other two leagues in a similar position this season—the WAC and Summit—aren’t convenient geographically. That eliminates an easy solution to all three groups’ scheduling woes.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Average Schedule Strength National Ranking. Numbers in parentheses are opponent’s Team Score Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

17. North Florida Ospreys

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 2 wins (Edward Waters, Florida National) and 3 losses (Florida, @FIU, Ball State)

Last fall, the Ospreys defeated just one Division I foe (North Dakota) heading into conference play. But Matthew Driscoll’s squad learned enough from their non-league struggles to finish 8-6 in ASUN play, good for the three seed (and an eventual championship berth) in the conference tournament. With 11 road games on the 2017-18 non-conference schedule, the plan is very much the same for these perennial road warriors.

104. Lipscomb Bisons

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 4 wins (Tennessee Tech, Morehead State, @Tennessee Tech, Fisk) and 4 losses (@Morehead State, @Belmont, Belmont, Tennessee State)

The Bisons are likely to be FGCU’s main challengers for the ASUN crown. Four power 7 road games and the traditional Battle of the Boulevard—a home-and-home set with neighbor and former ASUN rival Belmont—should prepare Casey Alexander’s team for that potentially daunting task.

130. Kennesaw State Fighting Owls

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (@Tennessee State) and 2 losses (@Bethune Cookman, Mercer)

The Owls’ 14 2016-17 wins were the most they’ve recorded since making the jump to Division I, but an 8-8 league record (including a run to the ASUN semifinals) was more responsible for that than Kennesaw State’s November and December performances. With four Power 7 road games and visits from NCAA contenders Georgia Southern and Yale on the 2017 non-league slate, it could be a similar story for Al Skinner’s squad during the early stages of the new season.

149. FGCU Eagles

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 5 wins (UT Arlington, Siena, FIU, FAU, Florida Tech) and 0 losses

The Eagles’ two top 100 visitors—Illinois State and Middle Tennessee—prominently featured in at-large discussions last season, though I suspect the Blue Raiders would have joined the Redbirds in the NIT had they lost the C-USA final. In an ideal world, FGCU’s slate would merit serious at-large consideration, as it features a mid-major who’s who, even if Wichita State earned a Power 7 spot during the offseason. There’s even a home-and-home with aforementioned Middle Tennessee for good measure. While it’s unlikely the Eagles will earn at-large consideration, thanks to the weakness at the bottom of the ASUN, performing well against this slate should earn them a better seed line if they can win three games in the conference tournament in the early days of the Championship Fortnight.

173. USC Upstate Spartans

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 4 wins (Charleston Southern, Campbell, Allen, @UMKC) and 2 losses (UNC Asheville, Jacksonville State)

Even with nine true road games on the slate, Eddie Payne’s club should get itself in position to improve upon last season’s 17-win mark and CollegeInsider.com Tournament berth. Even though the four power conference games are all potentially rough ones, the Spartans have to like the fact they visit notorious slow starters Georgia early in the season.

245. NJIT Highlanders

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 3 wins (Colgate, @UMass Lowell, Brown) and 2 losses (@Lafayette, @Iona)

Brian Kennedy’s first season in charge in Newark saw the Highlanders start out 8-8. But then ASUN play began and NJIT managed to win just once before going on a surprising two-game win streak at the end of the regular season. Nine home games and just three truly scary road trips (and I’m not including the one at Rutgers in that total) means the Highlanders, who are opening a new arena this season, could head into ASUN play with a similar pre-conference record in 2018.

325. Jacksonville Dolphins

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 6 wins (Trinity Baptist, @North Carolina A&T, @Bethune-Cookman, @Florida A&M, South Carolina State, Middle Georgia State) and 2 losses (@Milwaukee, Eastern Kentucky)

A quartet of non-D1 home games and five games against fellow bottom dwellers mean that the Dolphins could equal their 12-5 non-conference mark of a season ago—especially with so many repeat opponents. The question will be whether that better prepares JU for ASUN play.

329. Stetson Hatters

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 5 wins (Webber International, FIU, @SIU Edwardsville, South Alabama, Ave Maria) and 3 losses (@UCF, Fort Wayne, @Campbell)

While Mississippi State and Stephen F. Austin anchor the Hatters’ exempt event, Stetson will skip them to play a pair of non-Division I foes instead. That’s probably for the best for a squad that won just four D1 non-conference games last season. Of the two marquee games set for the Edmunds Center, the Hatters are more likely to stun USF than a UCF squad that’s might end up in the at-large pool.

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