For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2017-18 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

Ranking The Teams

All but one Big Ten squad ranks among the top 100 in the four-year national ranking—Rutgers, not surprisingly is the exception—with eight teams, including an Ohio State outfit that’s missed the last two NCAA Tournaments, in the top 50. However, the conference’s lack of truly top teams means it only ranks fourth among the 32 D1 leagues, below the Big East, ACC, and Big 12—the home conferences of six of the top national 10.

Ranking The Schedules

The Big Ten should be thankful that I elevated the American Athletic to the power conference group for purposes of these rankings. That change is the only thing that keeps the league from owning the lowest conference-wide schedule strength of the Power 7—across all four schedule strength metrics.

The most distressing ranking is the Known Schedule Strength one, where out of all of Division I, only the American, Sun Belt, and West Coast managed to do worse on average than the Big Ten.

While each and every other power conference has at least one schedule ranked in the top 50 in each of the four categories, the Big Ten has just two total across the quartet—Purdue’s 49th-ranked Maximum Schedule (thanks to a very strong top half of the Battle 4 Atlantis) and Wisconsin’s 43rd-ranked Minimum Schedule (as the Badgers are participating in the four-team CBE Classic, the strongest bracketed event of the season).

But the most serious indictment of Big Ten non-conference slates is that the majority fall in the bottom half of Division I, no matter the category. Don’t expect that to change when the conference moves to 20 league games next season. Contests against higher-ranked competition—at least those scheduled outside of exempt tournaments or the Big Ten/ACC Challenge—are likely to be the two non-league matchups eliminated.

*Denotes team will participate in a bracketed tournament. Reminder: Known Score = known matchups only; Average Score = known games+average of potential bracketed matchups; Maximum Score = known games+games against best potential bracketed matchups; Minimum Score = known games+games against worst potential bracketed matchups

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

In short, every single Big Ten member under-scheduled this season, and not by an insignificant margin either. No conference squad ranks in the top 100 in terms of scheduling gap, while three squads, including NCAA hopefuls Maryland and Iowa, rank in the bottom 50. Even Michigan State, a program typically praised for its non-league slates, managed to under-schedule by 121 places in 2017-18.

When examining true road games, the Big Ten sits exactly in the middle of the Power 7 conferences, but you have to think the conference’s 2017-18 total of 20 would be far lower if it didn’t play in two challenge series. The lone road game in a mid-major gym is Penn State’s matchup at George Mason, though Illinois (UNLV) and Maryland (Stony Brook) encounter non-power opponents in semi-road situations.

The Big Ten’s four non-D1 games edges the SEC for first place among the power conferences.

Big Ten teams have at least one game scheduled against every other D1 league, with just four conferences set for a single contest (though that number could grow in the case of the Mountain West and WCC). While the top two conferences, both Power 7 members, account for 33 games total, the next 10 account for 69. And that group includes the MEAC, SWAC, and NEC—the three lowest-rated conferences in Division I.

Yesterday, I wrote about how the SEC got its scheduling house in order by limiting games against the bottom 101 (24 set games spread among 14 members). The Big Ten, with 56 such games among its 14 teams, could certainly stand to learn something from its Southern rivals. The difference is similarly stark when looking at games against the top 100—the SEC has 70 total contests against that group, compared to 47 for the Big Ten.

Naturally, the Big Ten leads the nation in home non-conference games and only Big 12 teams will hit the road fewer times (by percentage anyway).

Given the conference’s lack of postseason success, as a Big Ten squad—Michigan State—last won the NCAA crown in 2000. Maybe it’s time to try something different than consistently scheduling home games against Division I’s weaker teams in November and December. Not only does this tactic potentially put a cap on the seeds Big Ten teams earn, but these contests can’t possibly prepare conference members for the rigors of March.

One factor to keep in mind is that Big Ten teams will play a compressed non-conference schedule in 2017. That’s because each will play a pair of conference games in December so the league can play its postseason tournament at Madison Square Garden during the week before Selection Sunday.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Average Schedule Strength National Ranking. Numbers in parentheses are opponent’s Team Score Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

Games marked with a ^ are part of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. Those marked with a # are part of the Gavitt Tip-Off series.

56. Wisconsin Badgers

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 3 wins (Chicago State, @Marquette, Green Bay) and 1 loss (@Creighton)

The Badgers schedule features seven top 100 opponents, with four of those games set to take place away from Madison. As I mentioned earlier, Wisconsin’s exempt event, the CBE Classic, is the strongest bracketed tournament of the season, as all four entrants reached the 2017 NCAA Tournament. However, Greg Gard’s squad drew the short straw and gets Baylor, likely to be the best of the quartet in 2017-18, in the semifinals. Then there’s the Big Ten/ACC Challenge tilt against Virginia, which should be an, um, interesting watch. As for the home slate, visits from Yale, Xavier, and Marquette will be tough tests, but they don’t quite make up for the presence of three sub-300 opponents.

87. Ohio State Buckeyes

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: None

Chris Holtmann’s first Buckeye non-conference schedule doesn’t feature a single repeat foe from Thad Matta’s final one. But that doesn’t mean that OSU’s new coach won’t encounter any familiar faces—Ohio State could meet Holtmann’s former employer, Butler, on day three of the Phil Knight Invitational. That trip to Portland and another to New Orleans to face North Carolina are the only games Ohio State will play away from home this season. But that’s not to say the Value City Arena slate is challenge-free, especially for a club that experienced serious roster turnover. Matchups against Texas Southern, Northeastern, Clemson, and William & Mary could be particularly tricky for the Bucks.

88. Purdue Boilermakers

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 0 wins and 2 losses (Villanova, @Louisville)

With scandal-plagued Louisville the only team likely to truly test the Boilermakers at Mackey Arena, Matt Painter’s team will have to build most of the non-conference portion of its résumé away from home. And with Big East opponents Marquette Golden Eagles and Butler Bulldogs possible bubble teams, there’s a bit of extra pressure on Purdue’s Atlantis quarterfinal against Tennessee. Win that and the Boilers probably earn a rematch of last season’s 79-76 home loss to Villanova. Lose it, and consolation games against WKU and either UNI or N.C. State would follow.

93. Indiana Hoosiers

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 0 wins and 2 losses (@Fort Wayne, @Louisville)

With two true road games (granted one is a Gavitt series matchup) and only one bottom 50 team visiting Assembly Hall, the Hoosiers upped their scheduling game in Archie Miller’s first season. And indeed, the top four games on this schedule—Duke in the Big Ten/ACC series, Seton Hall in the Gavitt event, a Crossroads Classic encounter with Notre Dame, and trip to Louisville—will all seriously challenge an IU squad that struggled with injuries and inconsistency in 2016-17.

101. Michigan Wolverines

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 2 wins (Marquette (N), Texas) and 1 loss (@UCLA)

The Wolverines’ 2017-18 non-conference schedule is remarkably similar to last season’s—and that slate worked out well for a team that ended up winning the Big Ten Tournament and reaching the Sweet Sixteen. This time around, Michigan faces a more difficult exempt tournament, as they’ll need to win three games in Maui, likely including ones over Notre Dame and Wichita State, to win a second straight Thanksgiving week crown. Plus, John Beilein’s club will likely aim for a split of their road trips to North Carolina and Texas. As for the home slate, UCLA is far and away the best team visiting Crisler this fall.

137. Michigan State Spartans

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (Oakland) and 1 loss (@Duke)

The Spartans won’t play a true road game this season, and other than their ACC Challenge matchup with Notre Dame, their biggest challenges are set for neutral floors. First up is a matchup with Duke in the Champions Classic on the season’s first Tuesday. Then comes the Phil Knight Invitational over Thanksgiving weekend where Tom Izzo’s team could play a semi-road contest against Oregon in the semifinals (or Portland on day three if things go poorly). Finally, there will be a meeting with Oakland in downtown Detroit—and the Grizzlies typically play Sparty close in neutral-site meetings.

201. Northwestern Wildcats

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 2 wins (DePaul, Chicago State) and 0 losses

The biggest challenge for the Wildcats in their attempt to turn their first-ever NCAA appearance into a streak will be the fact they’re playing a season of road games. Thanks to renovations to Welsh-Ryan Arena, Northwestern will play its eight non-conference home games and its Big Ten slate at DePaul’s former home, Allstate Arena. Still, with the exception of a home contest with Creighton, the majority of tests Chris Collins’s squad will come away from Rosemont—as three true Power 7 road games are on tap and the Cats are guaranteed a power game on the second day of the Hall of Fame Tip-Off.

220. Minnesota Golden Gophers

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (@Arkansas) and 0 losses

Yes, the bottom of the Golden Gophers’ slate, featuring seven games against teams ranked worse than 200th in the four-year ranking, isn’t great. But the other six contests, including the four to be played away from Williams Arena should more than make up for those deficiencies. Both Miami and Harvard will bring some needed prestige to the home schedule, while Alabama, Arkansas, and Providence should all join Richard Pitino’s squad in the 2018 NCAA field.

229. Maryland Terrapins

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (Stony Brook) and 0 losses

While the Terps won 24 games—including 12 in non-league play—their lack of quality non-conference wins meant they only earned a six seed last March. And with Butler and Patriot League favorite Bucknell the two best teams visiting College Park this fall and potential Emerald Coast final opponent TCU looking like the strongest NCAA bet of the teams Maryland will meet away from home, Mark Turgeon’s team will only have itself to blame if the Selection Committee treats it in a similar fashion this time around.

238. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 0 wins and 2 losses (@Creighton, Kansas)

The Cornhuskers haven’t finished above .500 since their last NCAA Tournament season in 2014—Tim Miles’s second in charge. Heading into year six, Miles is on the hot seat. And while this schedule, featuring five home games against teams in the bottom 100, is designed to get Nebraska off to a winning start, it might take some upsets to get the Huskers back to March Madness. Nebraska’s exempt tournament is particularly tricky, as for the second year in succession, they’re participating in an ESPN event that features a local participant. Complicating matters, the Cornhuskers will play UCF on day one of 2017’s AdvoCare Invitational—while in 2016, their game with UCLA didn’t occur until the semifinal stage.

265. Iowa Hawkeyes

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (Iowa State) and 0 losses

With a home slate featuring a trio of SWAC teams and four opponents from the bottom 50, the Hawkeyes will have to do real work away from Iowa City to return to the NCAAs after a one-year absence. And with Fran McCaffery’s team facing tricky opponents on the first two days of the Cayman Islands Classic, it can’t assume a day three matchup against Cincinnati will happen. Considering both Colorado and Iowa State have serious questions surrounding them heading into the season, Virginia Tech looks like the strongest non-league foe on Iowa’s entire slate.

274. Penn State Nittany Lions

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (@George Washington) and 2 losses (George Mason, Pittsburgh (N))

Pat Chambers heads into his seventh season still looking for his first NCAA bid in State College—the Nittany Lions last reached the field in 2011. And with just one likely tournament squad on this slate—Texas A&M, who Penn State could meet in the Legends Classic final—PSU will need to rack up Big Ten wins to end its time in the wilderness.

This will be the second season in a row that the Nittany Lions meet Pittsburgh on a neutral-floor. The Panthers took down Penn State by an 81-73 count in the Never Forget Tribute Games in Newark last December.

314. Illinois Fighting Illini

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (Missouri (N)) and 0 losses

Last season, the Fighting Illini lost just three regular-season non-conference games—all in a five-day span as part of the NIT Season Tip-Off. Those defeats contributed to Illinois missing the NCAA Tournament for the fourth straight season and John Groce’s dismissal. And after a highly successful season in Stillwater, Brad Underwood headed north to replace him. This schedule, featuring nine-home games, highlighted by a four-game exempt round-robin, and relatively easy contests away from Champaign, should give the Illini a decent start. The Braggin’ Rights game against Missouri and Big Ten/ACC tilt at Wake Forest look like the most difficult matchups here by some margin.

346. Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 5 wins (Hartford, Central Connecticut State, Stony Brook, Fairleigh Dickinson, Fordham) and 1 loss (@Seton Hall)

A Big Ten/ACC Challenge home game against Florida State and visit from former Big East rival Seton Hall are the only things that saving Scarlet Knight schedule that features a non-D1 opponent and nine teams from outside of the top 100. Making matters worse, four of those actually rank among the bottom 50. If Steve Pikiell’s team doesn’t equal its 2016-17 non-conference win total of 11 against this slate, it will be a shock.

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