For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2017-18 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

Ranking The Teams

Seemingly every season, someone, somewhere asks why the MAC isn’t a multi-bid league, which is an odd inquiry, considering the conference hasn’t sent more than one team to the NCAA Tournament in the entirety of the KenPom era...which began in 2001-02! And while the league manages to have just one team in the bottom 100 of the four-year ranking (and barely at that), the other 11 only manage to occupy rankings that are middling at best. And that’s not the formula to earning multiple bids.

Ranking The Schedules

With only Ball State’s schedule ranking among the top 100 and more than half of conference squads ranking outside of the top 200 in at least three categories, it’s going to be very difficult for even a high-quality MAC squad to earn an at-large or escape the bottom four lines of the NCAA Tournament’s bracket. Overall, the conference ranks either 26th or 27th nationally in terms of average non-conference schedule strength. And you don’t want to find your league down that far if it doesn’t have the built in advantages that come from Power 7 membership.

*Denotes team will participate in a bracketed tournament. Reminder: Known Score = known matchups only; Average Score = known games+average of potential bracketed matchups; Maximum Score = known games+games against best potential bracketed matchups; Minimum Score = known games+games against worst potential bracketed matchups

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

Of the MAC’s 12 teams, only Northern Illinois and Ball State managed to over-schedule this season, though the Huskies (12 places) didn’t go quite to the extreme the Cardinals (142) did. Everyone else has a non-conference slate that ranks worse than its four-year Team Score, with the spread ranging from 17 for Buffalo to 145 for Central Michigan.

The MAC’s postseason issues partly derive from scheduling. For starters, league members average a little more than one game against non-D1 foes, scheduled to fortify home schedule (even though the conference ranks third among the 25 mid-majors in this statistic). And that total of 21 non-D1 home games equals the number of Power 7 road contests conference members will play this season. At first glance you would assume that number will likely drop once the Big Ten, the Power 7 league that shares the MAC footprint, moves to 20 league games in 2018-19. However...

...since the 12 MAC members only play a total of five Big Ten opponents in the 2017-18 season, that assumption would be incorrect. Surprisingly, other than 20 games scheduled against the Horizon League, MAC schedules as a whole don’t feature many games against other neighboring leagues—there are just 26 scheduled contests where MAC teams face opposition from the Big Ten, OVC, Big East (think the Midwestern members), C-USA, MVC, and Summit.

The push for at-large bids also doesn’t get much help from the strength of the foes MAC teams face in November and December. Of the known games on this season’s league slates, just 28 will come against top 100 foes, meaning a whopping 114 feature teams from the bottom 251 of Division I or teams from outside of the classification entirely.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Average Schedule Strength National Ranking. Numbers in parentheses are opponent’s Team Score Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

65. Ball State Cardinals

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (@North Florida) and 3 losses (Indiana State, @Valparaiso, IUPUI)

After a 21-win campaign that ended in the CollegeInsider.com Tournament, the Cardinals look to be a strong contender to earn their first NCAA bid since 2000. Other than road games at Dayton and Notre Dame, a quartet of PK80 games (including ones at 2017 Final Four squad Oregon and Patriot champ Bucknell) will provide Ball State with its biggest challenges in James Whitford’s fifth season in charge.

121. Buffalo Bulls

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (@Niagara) and 3 losses (@St. Bonaventure, Canisius (N), Robert Morris (N))

Kent State ended the Bulls’ quest for a third straight NCAA bid in last March’s MAC quarterfinals, but Buffalo still won more than it lost for the fourth straight season. And that happened despite a 6-7 run through pre-MAC play that included a 2-1 trip to the Great Alaska Shootout and three Power 7 road losses. This season, Nate Oats’s squad has one fewer power conference road game but makes up for it with a trip to the Cayman Islands Classic, where the Bulls will meet favorite Cincinnati in the first round.

136. Toledo Rockets

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 2 wins (@Wright State, Detroit Mercy) and 2 losses (@Saint Joseph’s, @Marshall)

Tod Kowalczyk’s Rockets will face a far more daunting non-league schedule than the one they went 7-6 against a season ago—on the way to a 17-17 finish. The biggest change is the addition of a pair of Power 7 road trips—to Kansas and Syracuse as part of the HoopHall Miami event—that were absent a year ago. But the two mid-majors visiting the Glass City for that event—Oakland and Texas Southern—aren’t slouches either. Neither is season-opening foe Saint Joseph’s.

160. Eastern Michigan Eagles

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 2 wins (Rochester (Mich.), Long Beach State) and 1 loss (@Syracuse)

After three straight winning season’s, Rob Murphy’s Eagles dipped below .500 in 2016-17, although EMU managed an 8-5 non-conference run. Meeting or beating that total isn’t a given this time around, thanks to a trio of Power 7 road matchups, including the now-traditional showdown with a Syracuse squad coached by Murphy’s mentor, Jim Boeheim, along with a home-and-home series with neighbors Oakland and an excursion to Long Beach State.

172. Northern Illinois Huskies

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (UIC) and 0 losses

Mark Montgomery’s squad was another that couldn’t translate decent November and December results—eight wins, including a victory at USF—to a strong MAC campaign—the Huskies finished 15-17. And with three rough Power 7 road games and three-games at a Gulf Coast Showcase full of mid-majors contenders and wildcards, NIU might need to put together a strong MAC season to ensure that 2017’s dip below .500 was just a blip.

215. Akron Zips

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (Marshall) and 0 losses

Former Ohio head coach John Groce returns to the MAC this season, replacing Keith Dambrot, who left for Duquesne. The former Illinois boss will look to extend the Zips’ run of 20-win seasons to 13, and this non-league schedule should get Akron much of the way there. There’s nothing too challenging here outside of a road trip to rebuilding Dayton and a holiday excursion to Hawai’i for the Diamond Head Classic. The Zips are guaranteed to meet a 2017 NCAA team on both days one and two in Honolulu.

218. Western Michigan Broncos

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 0 wins and 4 losses (@Oakland, UTEP (N), Boise State (N), @Cleveland State)

Like Toledo, WMU finished at the break-even point a season ago, but the Broncos did most of their work in MAC play, thanks to a 4-8 non-league mark. That total included three losses in the Charleston Classic. Steve Hawkins’s club will look to avoid a similar result in this season’s trip to South Carolina, for the relocated Puerto Rico Tip-Off. The Broncos could meet South Carolina twice in the Gamecocks’ home state as part of that event.

247. Ohio Bobcats

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 0 wins and 3 losses (@Marshall, @Iona, @Western Kentucky)

With seven home games and just one Power 7 road contest—at Maryland, the Bobcats will be in great position to win 20 games again, even if they failed to defeat any of this schedule’s returnees in 2016. However, a trip to the Charleston Classic could result in an early loss or two, particularly since Ohio opens with Clemson, who will have plenty of fan support in their quarterfinal.

257. Kent State Golden Flashes

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 2 wins (Cleveland State (N), Mississippi Valley State) and 3 losses (@Northeastern, @Wright State, @Oregon State)

The Golden Flashes won four games in the MAC Tournament to claim the league’s lone 2017 NCAA berth, and Rob Senderoff’s team acquitted itself well against UCLA once there. While Kent State won eight non-conference games last season, it was one of five squads to lose to Oregon State all year. But the Beavers visit Northeast Ohio this season. A visit to Xavier and a pair of games against Missouri Valley foes at the Savannah Invitational are the biggest travel highlights of the Flashes’ 2017 schedule.

289. Miami (Ohio) RedHawks

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 2 wins (Austin Peay, Western Illinois) and 2 losses (@Wright State, @Fort Wayne)

After five seasons failing to crack the .500 mark, John Cooper was relieved of his duties in Oxford and now it’s up to Jack Owens to build upon last season’s 11-win campaign. With nine games scheduled away from home, don’t expect the 2017-18 RedHawks to match last season’s 7-6 non-conference mark. But at least Miami will get a nice trip to Montego Bay for a pair of winnable games at the Jamaica Classic.

321. Bowling Green Falcons

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (Norfolk State) and 4 losses (@South Dakota, Green Bay, @Evansville, @San José State)

The Falcons slipped from 16 to 13 wins in Michael Huger’s second season, with six of last year’s wins coming outside of MAC play. But with a fall slate that features six home games, a weak round-robin event at Campbell, and an absence of power conference matchups, that total could tick up in 2017. And that’s even considering the awful 1-4 mark against returning foes.

324. Central Michigan Chippewas

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 2 wins (@Tennessee Tech, @Montana State) and 0 losses

The Chippewas will hope to improve upon Buffalo’s 2016 performance in Anchorage, as they’ll be the MAC’s representative in the final edition of the Great Alaska Shootout. If Keno Davis’s squad can get past Sam Houston State in the quarterfinals, CAA favorite College of Charleston would await in the semifinals. That hypothetical contest would rank second on CMU’s slate—behind the visit to Michigan. In other words, if the Chips don’t equal last season’s non-MAC win total of 13 it will be a disappointment.

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