For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2017-18 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

Ranking The Teams

Even though Eastern Washington secured a 13 seed in 2015 (like Montana two seasons prior), the Big Sky champ typically finds itself on either line 15 (North Dakota last season or Weber State in 2016) or 16 (the Wildcats in 2014). And that shouldn’t be too surprising for a league where every member save Montana sits in the bottom half of the four-year ratings table.

Ranking The Schedules

While the Big Sky’s teams don’t rank all that highly nationally, their schedules do. Four to six teams find themselves in the top 100 in each of the four categories, while seven of the conference’s 12 members rank in the top half nationally across the board. Portland State earns a special mention, as the Vikings’ participation in the Phil Knight Invitational boosts its slate to the top 40 in the Average, Maximum, and Minimum categories.

*Denotes team will participate in a bracketed tournament. Reminder: Known Score = known matchups only; Average Score = known games+average of potential bracketed matchups; Maximum Score = known games+games against best potential bracketed matchups; Minimum Score = known games+games against worst potential bracketed matchups

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

As you’d expect, when a conference has most of its members in the bottom half of Division I and most of its schedules in the top half, there will be scheduling gaps. And indeed, the seven teams with the highest Average Schedule rankings all over-scheduled by margins ranging from 41 spots (Eastern Washington) to 274 (Southern Utah). Montana State, who under-scheduled by six spots, and Northern Colorado, 17-spot over-schedulers, did the best job of scheduling to recent performances out of these 12 squads.

With the relative lack of Division I teams between the Rockies and Pacific, the Big Sky’s 12 members struggle mightily to fill their schedules. Nearly half of the conference’s home games will come against teams from outside of Division I, while the typical league team will play a pair of Power 7 road games. The conference joins the Big West and MEAC in a tie for 17th (out of 25 mid-major leagues) in the ranking of non-conference home games and the Horizon and WAC in a knot for 11th in terms of Power 7 road contests. The league is also in a three-way tie for fourth in the non-D1 games table, alongside the MEAC and Conference USA.

Even though the bulk of the Big Sky’s D1 non-conference games feature other Western opponents, non-D1 games still dominate this breakdown. Nine primarily Eastern leagues don’t have any confirmed games against Big Sky members, but the Midwest’s Missouri Valley an intriguing outlier in this group. However, squads from six of these missing conferences could meet Big Sky opposition on days two or three of tournament competition.

Duke‘s Phil Knight Invitational quarterfinal against Portland State accounts for the Big Sky’s best non-league home game, and that game will be played at the Vikings’ part-time home in front of what’s likely to be an ambivalent crowd. Still, the split of non-D1 vs. D1 home games is particularly stark in this table. Beyond that, the number of Big Sky road games against teams in ranked between 101st and 200th—30—jumps out at me.

Thanks to a relatively high number of neutral-site matchups, the Big Sky ranks only 11th nationally in percentage of road non-conference games, while simultaneously boasting only the sixth-highest percentage of home contests.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Average Schedule Strength National Ranking. Numbers in parentheses are opponent’s Team Score Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

40. Portland State Vikings

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (@Portland) and 1 loss (@Loyola Marymount)

Thanks to the Phil Knight Invitational, the Vikings should get the rare opportunity to play a pair of Power 7 foes on its part-time home floor of Memorial Coliseum. (Action shifts from there to the Moda Center on day two, hence why PSU’s Friday opponent is listed as a semi-home game.) Duke will already meet Portland State on Thanksgiving, and the likely loss to the Blue Devils would put the Vikings on course for a Sunday game at Memorial as well.

Considering how 2016-17’s 7-4 non-conference mark turned into a 15-16 overall record that resulted in Tyler Geving’s departure, don’t expect a fairy tale over Thanksgiving weekend in Barret Peery’s first campaign.

66. Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 0 wins and 2 losses (@UNLV, @San José State)

The Thunderbirds won just six times in Todd Simon’s first season—failing to defeat a Division I team before Big Sky play. Such a result could be on the cards again for SUU, particularly with no clear D1 wins on the home slate and a half-dozen tricky road games on the opposite side of the ledger.

76. North Dakota Fighting Hawks

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 2 wins (Presentation, @North Dakota State) and 1 loss (North Dakota State)

The 2017 Big Sky champs are expected to take a step back in their final season before moving to the Summit League. But the Fighting Hawks should be prepared to defend their title, thanks to a schedule highlighted by games at Gonzaga, Nebraska, and Creighton, as well as three games against local future conference rivals and a trip to Hawai’i for the Rainbow Classic.

82. Montana Grizzlies

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 3 wins (Oral Roberts (N), @UC Riverside, Pepperdine) and 0 losses

The Grizzlies stumbled to five non-conference wins a season ago before storming through Big Sky play to get back to .500. And with a Legends Classic trip to Pepperdine and five Power 7 road games, a similar pattern may play out in Travis DeCuire’s fourth season in charge in Missoula.

85. Sacramento State Hornets

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (Antelope Valley) and 3 losses (UC Davis (N), San Francisco (N), @Washington State)

Georgetown’s withdrawal from the Phil Knight Invitational led ESPN Events to shift DePaul from the Wooden Legacy into the Hoyas’ vacated spot. To fill the Blue Demons’ place in Fullerton, the Worldwide Leader turned to the Hornets, who aren’t known for participating in exempt tournaments. The three added games made a slate that was previously highlighted by a pair of Mountain West road trips more intriguing, and far rougher for a Hornet squad that won just 13 times a season ago.

110. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 0 wins and 3 losses (@Santa Clara, San Diego, Cal State Bakersfield)

With a brutal schedule that features four Power 7 road games and a difficult visitors’ bracket for the Las Vegas Invitational, don’t expect the Lumberjacks to exceed their 2016-17 non-league win total of three.

140. Eastern Washington Eagles

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 4 wins (Seattle, San Francisco, @Seattle, Providence (Mont.)) and 0 losses

Jim Hayford’s tenure in Cheney continues to be consistently successful, though the Eagles, winners of 22 last season, might have trouble matching 2016’s eight non-conference wins. The main reason why—EWU has just three home games this time around, as opposed to the seven on 2016-17’s slate.

260. Weber State Wildcats

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 3 wins (West Coast Baptist, Utah Valley), @Utah State and 3 losses (@Pepperdine, Iona (N), @BYU)

Randy Rahe’s Wildcats won 20 games last season, a typical finish for a coach heading into his 12th season in Ogden. But that total included a disappointing 1-2 trip to the Great Alaska Shootout, where Weber lost to the Iona in the semifinals. And guess who awaits in the quarterfinals of the Wildcats’ trip to the Bahamas? Still, even if Weber State loses to the Gaels, wins will still be available in Nassau, and elsewhere for that matter, and that’s due to a schedule that features just two true road games.

261. Idaho Vandals

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 0 wins and 2 losses (@Sam Houston State, @Washington State)

The Vandals finished with a winning record—and in the postseason—for a second year in a row under Don Verlin, and Idaho should be able to improve upon 2016’s five non-league wins. Neighbors Washington State visit Cowan Spectrum, while the most difficult road trips will be to Nevada and to Anchorage for the final Great Alaska Shootout.

278. Northern Colorado Bears

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (Northern New Mexico) and 1 loss (@Denver)

Jeff Linder’s Bears return to postseason eligibility after an 11-win campaign that featured four victories before Big Sky play tipped off. Thanks to a weak Sanford Pentagon Showcase field and five home games, Northern Colorado should be able to improve upon that total as it sets off on the quest for its first NCAA bid since 2011.

280. Idaho State Bengals

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 0 wins and 3 losses (@Utah Valley, @Cal State Northridge, @BYU)

A season after winning just one game against Division I opposition over a 13-game non-league slate, the Bengals dialed the degree of difficulty back a bit here. Still, it’s unlikely that Bill Evans’s squad makes headway after a six-victory campaign a season ago—particularly as the winnable home games are balanced out by road trips to Arizona State, Washington State, and BYU.

282. Montana State Bobcats

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 0 wins and 3 losses (Milwaukee, @Omaha, Central Michigan)

The Bobcats’ 2016-17 played out almost exactly like that of their rival from Missoula’s. However, Montana State’s 2017-18 slate has a couple of advantages over Montana. For starters, there are no Power 7 road trips, as opposed to five for the Grizzlies. Plus, MSU’s exempt event features all mid-majors, with the winnable visitors’ bracket set for an actual neutral site. For the second season in succession, the Bobcats will play a Summit team in a home-and-home series. Last season, South Dakota swept Montana State. This time around it will be Omaha on the slate, though the Bobcats’ “home” game is set for Great Falls, not Bozeman.

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