For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2017-18 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

Ranking The Teams

The Horizon was the loser of the mini wave of realignment that followed the Wichita State Shockers’ move from the Missouri Valley to the American, with the Valley poaching Valparaiso, ranked 68th in my four-year table, to fill the gap. In turn, the Horizon replaced Valpo with IUPUI, a great geographic fit that sits 173 places below the Crusaders in the rankings. As a result, 70 percent of this league’s membership now ranks in the bottom half of Division I. Like the CAA, realignment has turned the Horizon, formerly a consistent threat to send multiple teams to the NCAAs, into another one-bid league.

Ranking The Schedules

With 80 percent of the Horizon having set schedules, the games the conference already has lined up rank favorably with the rest of the nation, hence why the league’s Known and Minimum Schedule rankings are slightly stronger than the Average and Maximum ones. Even though no Horizon member cracks the top 50 nationally in any of the four metrics, the fact the majority of squads sit in the top half of Division I means the average Horizon non-conference slate ranks far better than the national average.

*Denotes team will participate in a bracketed tournament. Reminder: Known Score = known matchups only; Average Score = known games+average of potential bracketed matchups; Maximum Score = known games+games against best potential bracketed matchups; Minimum Score = known games+games against worst potential bracketed matchups

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

All but two Horizon teams over-scheduled this season, and despite the average schedule gap of 49 places, no team did a particularly good job of keeping its four-year ranking and Average Schedule rank close. Oakland and Cleveland State, three points below and above that mark of 49, did the best. On the flip side, potential contender UIC did the worst—over-scheduling by 144 spots. Still, there aren’t any truly huge gaps of 250-plus like those found in the leagues at the bottom of Division I, like the SWAC, MEAC, and Southland.

Just one power conference squad will visit a Horizon League gym this season, as DePaul will look to avenge last season’s home loss to UIC. The 22 Power 7 road games seems a bit low, though perhaps that’s due to many Big Ten teams scheduling opposition with more cupcake-like tendencies than stronger local rivals.

Overall, the Horizon is average for a mid-major league in terms of the number of home games (13th of 25), Power 7 road trips (12th), and non-D1 games (tied for 13th).

While Horizon schedules are naturally Midwest-centric, conference members will miss just two Division I leagues entirely this season. The presence of 16 non-Division I games means there’s room for improvement, particularly when you see that just 17 games feature Summit and OVC opposition. Those two neighboring loops also rely on teams from Division II and below to fill out their schedules.

However, those non-Division I games help Horizon members approach parity in terms of home and away games. More interestingly, however, is the fact that these 10 teams will play an average of five games apiece against teams ranked in the second 100 of the four-year rankings. That’s a goal all mid-major leagues should be striving toward, especially with 20-game Power 7 slates becoming the new reality. Why? Well, while it’s nearly impossible to schedule teams in the top 100 consistently (since that group is Power 7 heavy), teams ranked outside of the top 200 don’t really help your schedule strength either, particularly when it comes to March Madness seeding.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Average Schedule Strength National Ranking. Numbers in parentheses are opponent’s Team Score Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

69. Oakland Golden Grizzlies

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 3 wins (Western Michigan, Chicago State, Oral Roberts) and 1 loss (@Michigan State)

While Greg Kampe’s Grizzlies visit both Syracuse and Kansas as part of their HoopHall Miami travels, the highlight of Oakland’s slate is the game in Detroit against Michigan State. The Golden Grizzlies have played the Spartans very close in their last two neutral-site meetings, both in Auburn Hills—losing by four in 2013 and six after overtime in 2015. A home-and-home with Rob Murphy’s Eastern Michigan is also a series to keep an eye on this fall.

102. Detroit Mercy Titans

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 0 wins and 4 losses (@ETSU, @Murray State, @Toledo, Fort Wayne)

Considering the Titans won just one non-conference game against Division I opposition, Bacari Alexander’s squad won’t need to do much to improve this November and December. However, the four road games are hellacious, as is the Belmont-hosted Legends Classic subregional and a neutral-site tilt against Michigan. If UDM can’t defeat Seattle or Houston Baptist in Nashville, it could be yet another long fall at Calihan Hall.

109. IUPUI Jaguars

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 2 wins (Ball State, Western Illinois) and 2 losses (@SIU Edwardsville, @Western Illinois)

Curiously, the Jaguars didn’t play a single Horizon team during their final year in the Summit, and they’ll play just one former league rival, WIU, this time around. The most interesting thing about this slate: other than a trip to the Palouse to play both Washington State and Gonzaga, IUPUI won’t leave Indiana and Illinois during the non-conference.

119. Milwaukee Panthers

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 2 wins (Jacksonville, @Montana State) and 3 losses (@Loyola of Chicago, Western Illinois, Belmont)

For the moment, forget about the Panthers’ run to the Horizon League title game and consider that Milwaukee won just three encounters against Division I foes before conference play started. But even with visits to Iowa State and Wisconsin on tap, 2016-17’s non-league win total is completely passable, thanks in no small part to five home games against beatable D1 foes.

158. UIC Flames

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 4 wins (Trinity Christian, @DePaul) and 3 losses (@Northern Illinois, Loyola of Chicago)

The Flames picked up seven of their 17 wins last season in the non-conference, with five of those victories coming against Division I foes. Unfortunately, four of those squads aren’t part of this schedule (but DePaul is, and the Blue Demons visit UIC Pavilion this time), with Saint Joseph’s, Illinois State, and, most distressingly, Kentucky among the new squads on 2017’s slate. In short, if UIC is really going to mount a Horizon title run, its record might not show it when league play starts.

164. Northern Kentucky Norse

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (@Morehead State) and 0 losses

The team that kept Milwaukee from the NCAAs (and a likely trip to Dayton) will look to establish itself as the Horizon’s newest power after what should be a successful run through one of the more manageable non-league slates out there. Yes, NKU has a game against a Texas A&M squad that should challenge for second in the SEC, but the other name brand team on the schedule, Memphis, is very much a team in transition. A home-and-home with ETSU is intriguing and two or three wins could be available in the Norse’s exempt event in the Bahamas.

167. Cleveland State Vikings

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (Western Michigan) and 2 losses (Kent State (N), @Arkansas State)

Former WKU and Georgia head coach Dennis Felton takes over the Vikings this season and constructed a maiden schedule that builds to the two biggest challenges—trips to Cincinnati and Michigan State. CSU also gets two home games as part of the Rutgers-anchored Showcase on the Banks, one of the weakest MTEs on the calendar this November.

189. Youngstown State Penguins

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 2 wins (Westminster (Pa.), @Robert Morris) and 0 losses

Jerrod Calhoun replaced Jerry Slocum after the Penguins stumbled to a 13-21 finish after starting out 6-6. Those half-dozen wins might look appetizing after a 2017 non-conference slate that features just three home games and tricky visits to Butler and Indiana. Note that two of the three games at the Sanford Pentagon Showcase in Sioux Falls should be quite winnable.

249. Green Bay Phoenix

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (@Bowling Green) and 1 loss (@Wisconsin)

Linc Darner’s third Phoenix squad should again challenge for the Horizon crown and will likely enter league play with at least six wins, thanks to a forgiving home slate. The same cannot be said for the half-dozen road trips, with games against four potential NCAA squads (Belmont, Mississippi State, Missouri, and in-state rival Wisconsin) looking particularly rough.

271. Wright State Raiders

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 3 wins (Miami (Ohio), Kent State, Murray State) and 2 losses (Toledo, @Loyola of Chicago)

For the second straight season, the Raiders will host an exempt round-robin, though they might struggle to sweep this season’s edition with MAAC favorite Fairfield featuring in the showcase game. Still, a schedule that features two non-D1 foes and only a single power conference game (against Georgia Tech) should help push Scott Nagy’s squad to another 20-win campaign.

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