For all of the posts in this series, visit the 2017-18 Non-Conference Scheduling Hub.

Ranking The Teams

The Pac-12 appears to be at a point where its ranking among the conferences could very well rocket over the next few seasons. Three of the top four teams in the four-year ranking—Arizona, Oregon, and UCLA—should all contend for NCAA bids yet again, as should the fourth, Utah, which suffered an uncharacteristic down season in 2016-17. And while there are serious question marks surrounding Cal and Colorado, the three teams ranking immediately below them—USC, Stanford, and Arizona State are all expected to be in the at-large hunt, with the Trojans pegged as a potential Final Four squad by some pundits. As for the bottom 25%, Oregon State can’t possibly be as awful as they were last season, while both new coach Mike Hopkins and fourth-year boss Ernie Kent have plenty of work to do at Washington and Washington State, respectively. While the Cougars seem hopeless, both the Beavers and Huskies should again add to the Pac-12’s national prestige sooner rather than later.

Ranking The Schedules

Each Pac-12 member will participate in a bracketed exempt tournament this season, which explains why the league’s four schedule strength rankings vary so widely. Factor in the best-possible results in these events, or even just the average field strength, and the conference ranks near the top of the nation in terms of non-conference scheduling. But if you only look at the games set in stone, or tournament worst case scenarios, and the Pac-12’s slates look decidedly mediocre.

Much of that mediocrity can be blamed on the presence of three league members—Washington State, Oregon, and Oregon State—near the very bottom of Division I in most metrics. All three rank 299th or worse in three of the four categories—and that’s a heavy weight on the Pac-12’s average numbers even when the rest of the league sits among the top 200.

*Denotes team will participate in a bracketed tournament. Reminder: Known Score = known matchups only; Average Score = known games+average of potential bracketed matchups; Maximum Score = known games+games against best potential bracketed matchups; Minimum Score = known games+games against worst potential bracketed matchups

Who Over- And Under-Scheduled?

UCLA ranks first in the nation in terms of this metric. While two other teams, DePaul and Wagner, also failed to have a scheduling gap, the Bruins are far superior to both the Blue Demons and Seahawks in terms of their Team Score.

In terms of the Pac-12’s other likely NCAA contenders, Arizona State, Stanford, and USC all over-scheduled relative to their recent performances. That could be a potential spot of trouble for the Sun Devils, as their 2017-18 non-league slate is only six spots better than their 85th-place ranking in the four-year performance table. On the other hand, Arizona, Utah, Oregon, and Oregon State all under-scheduled, with the Ducks’ gap of 284 places particularly ugly.

With eight of its 12 teams under-scheduling, and with five of those doing so by triple-digit margins, it’s not surprising the Pac-12 is 22nd in the nation in terms of average schedule gap. However, the conference is only the fifth-worst (or third-best) of the seven power conferences in this measure.

While the Pac-12 ranks fifth among the Power 7 in terms of true non-conference road games scheduled, it edges the American Athletic and ACC for the top spot in terms of road contests scheduled against mid-major opposition. And that number could increase depending on what happens in the conference’s exempt events, as Colorado (Liberty), Stanford (Portland State), USC (Hawai’i), and Washington State (Cal State Fullerton) could all play true road games in the later rounds of their respective tourneys.

While no Pac-12 team is currently scheduled to play a non-D1 opponent, Cal could meet Chaminade on day three of the Maui Invitational.

Only the Missouri Valley, Northeast, and Sun Belt conferences haven’t lined up games against Pac-12 opposition this season, though that could change for the Valley’s entrants in a pair of exempt tournaments. Naturally, the four leagues with the most games against Pac-12 foes are also from the West region; however, the WAC only ranks 10th. Surprisingly, the SEC is the power conference that will play Pac-12 opposition the most this season—a statistic that really stands out when you consider how infrequently the leagues meet in football.

Even though the Pac-12 ranks fourth in the country in terms of home non-conference games (by percentage), the conference ranks 30th in away games. But with the league also ranking second in terms of neutral-site games, that discrepancy makes a bit more sense. A whopping 90 of the 130 known Pac-12 non-conference games for this season will feature opposition ranked outside of the top 100 in the four-year team ranking.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Teams are listed in order of their Average Schedule Strength National Ranking. Numbers in parentheses are opponent’s Team Score Ranking. Logos via SportsLogos.net.

18. USC Trojans

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 4 wins (@Texas A&M, SMU, UC Santa Barbara, SMU (NCAA)) and 0 losses

Thanks to a late season collapse, the Trojans’ non-conference victories over Texas A&M and SMU largely pushed them into the First Four. Once in the NCAAs, Andy Enfield’s team won two games and took Baylor to the wire in their Second Round matchup. That postseason surge and the arrival of a highly-anticipated recruiting class means USC will have to deal with heightened expectations in 2017-18. And the Trojans have a schedule to match, thanks to rematches with both the Aggies and Mustangs, the start of a home-and-home series with 2017 NCAA qualifier Vanderbilt, and a strong Diamond Head Classic field waiting in Hawai’i. Even the home schedule is beefed up, as only Cal State Fullerton can really be considered a pushover out of the seven visiting opponents.

28. UCLA Bruins

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 4 wins (@Kentucky, Michigan, Cincinnati (NCAA)) and 1 loss (Kentucky (NCAA))

While Lonzo Ball has moved down the 10 to Staples Center, the Bruins should still be an NCAA squad this season. Just don’t expect UCLA to equal its 31-win total of a season ago. While Steve Alford’s squad will play eight games at Pauley, it’s the seventh of those contests, a March Madness rematch against Cincinnati, and the quality of the five games away from home that give this slate its heft. While the CBS Sports Classic showdown against a Kentucky squad UCLA split with last season in New Orleans over Christmas weekend is noteworthy, it’s the Bruins’ exempt tournament, the CBE Classic, that could be extra special. The Kansas City event’s four-team bracket is the strongest in the country, thanks to the presence of an all-NCAA qualifier lineup. The Bruins are lucky to have drawn a rebuilding Creighton in the semifinal. Win that and a likely championship showdown with Baylor would await in Kansas City.

30. Stanford Cardinal

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 0 wins and 1 loss (@Kansas)

Expectations are fairly high on the Farm, despite the 14-17 record the Cardinal put up in Jerrod Haase’s first season in charge. And Stanford will have three early chances to show that the optimism isn’t misplaced. First, the Cardinal hosts North Carolina three nights before opportunity number two, their PK80 quarterfinal against Florida, arrives. Beat the Gators and Stanford would likely be on course to play Gonzaga and Duke on days two and three in Portland. Finally, Kansas will head west to meet Haase’s charges in Sacramento. Even if the Cardinal fail to win any of those matchups, they’ll be well-tested when Pac-12 play begins in late December.

79. Arizona State Sun Devils

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (@San Diego State) and 0 losses

A trio of tricky home games—San Diego State, UC Irvine, and Vanderbilt—along with a visit to Lawrence and three neutral-site contests mean the Sun Devils will face some difficult early opposition in their attempt to finish both over .500 and in the NCAAs for the first time in Bobby Hurley’s three-year tenure. However, it’s another trio of games—in Tempe against teams ranked in the bottom 50 of the four-year ranking—that separates this schedule from the very best.

89. Arizona Wildcats

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 3 wins (Cal State Bakersfield, Texas A&M (N), New Mexico) and 0 losses

After their elimination at the hands of Xavier in the Sweet 16, Sean Miller’s Wildcats have San Antonio on their minds. And while this schedule has its share of name brands on it, many of them aren’t living their best basketball lives right now—like road foes New Mexico and UNLV, guests Alabama and UConn, and Battle 4 Atlantis quarterfinal opponent N.C. State. Improvement by any of those teams should help Arizona’s March profile, though a run to the final in the Bahamas and defeating Texas A&M for the second straight year should give the Wildcats a strong foundation to build on.

134. Colorado Buffaloes

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (Xavier) and 2 losses (Colorado State, @Air Force)

The Buffaloes followed up 2015-16’s 22-win NCAA season with a 19-win NIT campaign—and a further decline is expected this season. Still, with a maximum of four NCAA contenders on this slate (Colorado State, Iowa, Wake Forest, and Xavier), Tad Boyle’s club should be able to pick up 10 wins before Pac-12 play tips off. A potential Paradise Jam semifinal with the Demon Deacons looms large, as it could have bubble implications come March. The same could be said for the Buffs’ trip to Fort Collins.

150. California Golden Bears

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (Cal Poly) and 1 loss (San Diego State (N))

Wyking Jones has a relatively manageable schedule in his first season in charge in Berkeley—and he’ll need it, as the Golden Bears aren’t expected to do all that much in the first season after Cuonzo Martin’s departure for Missouri. But while Cal should enter Pac-12 play with a winning record—the trip to Maui, a road contest against San Diego State, and visit from Saint Mary’s could all be rough on the Bears.

155. Washington Huskies

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (@Seattle) and 1 loss (@Gonzaga)

After winning just nine games with the NBA’s eventual top draft pick, Markelle Fultz, on the roster, the UW administration handed Lorenzo Romar his walking papers at the end of the season—which resulted in potential 2018 No. 1 pick Michael Porter Jr. decommitting in favor of a stint at Missouri. So, former Syracuse coach-in-waiting Mike Hopkins heads into his first season with a talent deficit but also with a home-heavy schedule that should result in some confidence-building wins. But as is the case with Cal, a few games on this slate—Gonzaga’s visit to Seattle, Kansas in the Jayhawks’ annual Sprint Center matchup, the 2K Classic in New York, even the opener against OVC power Belmont—are likely to be a bridge too far for a rebuilding squad.

197. Utah Utes

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 2 wins (Prairie View A&M, @Hawai’i) and 1 loss (Butler)

The Utes’ 2016-17 non-conference schedule helped push them to 20 wins, but didn’t get them into the NCAAs. And with the 2017-18 slate being so similar, with the exception of the absence of non-D1 matchups, Larry Krystkowiak’s squad might just find itself in a similar position in March 2018. Currently, a game with Missouri looks like the home highlight, thanks to the presence of a pair of SWAC foes and a Northwestern State squad that has struggled of late on the Huntsman Center slate. While BYU is back after a year away, the Cougars haven’t risen above the bubble lately, while Butler could fall in that range this season. As for their exempt event in Vegas, the Utes will need UNLV and Ole Miss to be better than projected for potential wins over them to mean something.

299. Washington State Cougars

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 2 wins (Idaho, Sacramento State) and 1 loss (Kansas State (N))

Ernie Kent’s squad managed to go 7-5 against its pre-Pac-12 slate last November and December. But even with this schedule’s relative weakness, equalling that mark would be an accomplishment. While the Cougars could sweep their six home games (the opener against Texas Southern is an exception), the Wooden Legacy and trio of off-campus games will be considerably more difficult. Saint Joseph’s isn’t a great quarterfinal draw in Fullerton, even if the Hawks struggled through an injury-plagued 2016-17. Meanwhile, Kansas State, victorious over Wazzu in KC last December, will attempt to sweep the quasi-home-and-home series in Spokane, while true road foes Idaho and UTEP will both aim to stun the rare Power 7 foe to visit their respective arenas.

302. Oregon Ducks

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 3 wins (UConn (N), Boise State, Fresno State) and 1 loss (North Carolina (NCAA))

While the Ducks have the Phil Knight Invitational—in their backyard no less—and a trio of intriguing games against Mountain West opposition on their slate, it’s not hard to figure out why this schedule rates so lowly. Oregon scheduled the SWAC not just twice, but thrice (even if one of the games is against perennial champ Texas Southern), and added games against sub-300 teams from the MEAC and Southland for good measure. A run through the PK80 event will be necessary for Dana Altman’s team if it wants to improve upon last March’s three seed.

337. Oregon State Beavers

Record against returning opponents from 2016-17: 1 win (Kent State) and 1 loss (Long Beach State (N))

The Beavers won just five games—four in non-conference play—in a 2016-17 that saw star Tres Tinkle miss the majority of the season with a wrist injury. He’s back and healthy, so the Beavers should be able to exceed last season’s win total against this manageable non-league slate alone. The ranking here could end up being deceiving, as Oregon State’s schedule features several teams, including Saint Louis and every Power 7 opponent in Orlando save West Virginia, set for significant improvement.

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