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Metric-Based Bracketology: Look Out For K-State And Saint Joe's

As the season winds down, I'm going to take a quick look at how my projected Tuesday bracket lines up with the up-to-the-minute RPI and KenPom tables.

Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Note: Both KenPom and BBState (my RPI source) require a subscription.

Over the next few weeks, as a companion to my Tuesday morning bracket (at the very least) over on SB Nation, I'm going to produce a comparison table placing my seed list next to ones based on the current RPI and KenPom rankings. This way you'll have an idea of what teams these metrics seem to love and hate.

Considering how selection has played out over the past few seasons, pay particular attention to teams that are on the outside of my projection that happen to be present in both the RPI and KenPom projected fields. Last season, both metrics happened to love the UCLA Bruins when most prognosticators didn't, and they ended up as a surprise at-large selection.

Today, two teams meet this criteria—the Kansas State Wildcats (after their Saturday home win over the Oklahoma Sooners) and the Saint Joseph's Hawks (who have high metrics without a marquee win). On the other hand, I would be a bit worried if I were a fan of a Pac-12 bubble team or a squad that's struggling in conference play right now (like the Michigan Wolverines or Butler Bulldogs).

Note that the Iowa Hawkeyes are the No. 1 overall seed in the KenPom projection, while Oklahoma leads the way in both my bracket and the RPI-driven one. The Virginia Cavaliers, another KenPom top seed, are another squad to keep an eye on the rest of the way, particularly as North Carolina's schedule toughens up.

RANK SEED BRACKET RPI KENPOM
1 1 Oklahoma Oklahoma Iowa*
2 1 Villanova* Villanova* Villanova*
3 1 Iowa* Oregon* Virginia
4 1 Xavier Maryland Michigan State
5 2 Kansas Virginia North Carolina*
6 2 Oregon* Kansas Oklahoma
7 2 North Carolina* Xavier West Virginia*
8 2 Maryland Iowa* Maryland
9 3 Virginia North Carolina* Kansas
10 3 Michigan State West Virginia* Oregon*
11 3 West Virginia* Dayton* Miami
12 3 Iowa State Iowa State Duke
13 4 Miami Miami Arizona
14 4 Texas A&M Kentucky Wichita State*
15 4 Purdue USC Purdue
16 4 Dayton* Texas Iowa State
17 5 USC Michigan State Xavier
18 5 Kentucky Texas A&M Texas A&M
19 5 Texas Duke Kentucky
20 5 Duke Utah Connecticut
21 6 Utah Florida Valparaiso*
22 6 Providence Notre Dame Indiana
23 6 Arizona Purdue Texas
24 6 Notre Dame South Carolina Saint Mary's
25 7 Baylor Baylor USC
26 7 Indiana Colorado Florida
27 7 South Carolina Monmouth* Notre Dame
28 7 Michigan Saint Joseph's Baylor
29 8 Pittsburgh Providence Seton Hall
30 8 Wichita State* Wichita State* Dayton*
31 8 VCU Arizona VCU
32 8 Valparaiso* George Washington Gonzaga*
33 9 Monmouth* Seton Hall Cincinnati
34 9 Connecticut Chattanooga* Vanderbilt
35 9 Colorado Florida State Florida State
36 9 Florida Kansas State Syracuse
37 10 California Syracuse Kansas State
38 10 Florida State VCU Little Rock*
39 10 Syracuse William & Mary Butler
40 10 Seton Hall Oregon State California
41 11 Oregon State (12) Connecticut Utah
42 11 Gonzaga* Pittsburgh South Carolina
43 11 LSU* St. Bonaventure Creighton
44 11 Temple* Davidson Michigan
45 12 Washington Alabama (47) Stony Brook*
46 12 George Washington (11) Valparaiso* Saint Joseph's
47 12 Cincinnati (11) San Diego State* Arkansas (49)
48 12 Butler South Dakota State* Monmouth*
49 12 Chattanooga* Akron* LSU*
50 12 San Diego State* Yale* Yale*
51 13 Hawai'i* Temple* Hawai'i*
52 13 Little Rock* Stony Brook* San Diego State*
53 13 South Dakota State* Gonzaga* UNC Wilmington*
54 13 Yale* Little Rock* Chattanooga*
55 14 Stony Brook* LSU* Akron*
56 14 UNC Wilmington* UNC Wilmington* South Dakota State*
57 14 Akron* Belmont* Temple*
58 14 UAB* UAB* Stephen F. Austin*
59 15 Belmont* Hawai'i* New Mexico State*
60 15 North Florida* New Mexico State* UAB*
61 15 Montana* Montana* Belmont*
62 15 Stephen F. Austin* Stephen F. Austin* UNC Asheville*
63 16 UNC Asheville* North Florida* North Florida*
64 16 New Mexico State* UNC Asheville* Montana*
65 16 Bucknell* Bucknell* Bucknell*
66 16 Fairleigh Dickinson* Hampton* Texas Southern*
67 16 Hampton* Fairleigh Dickinson* Hampton*
68 16 Texas Southern* Texas Southern* Fairleigh Dickinson*
OUT OUT



Michigan (48) Providence (50)



California (51) Colorado (54)



Indiana (54) Pittsburgh (56)



Washington (58) Washington (81)



Butler (63) Oregon State (82)



Cincinnati (64)
LAST FOUR OUT LAST FOUR OUT LAST FOUR OUT


Saint Joseph's Michigan (48) Providence (50)


Saint Mary's California (51) Wisconsin (51)


Wisconsin Texas Tech (53) Colorado (54)


Clemson Indiana (54) Pittsburgh (56)
NEXT FOUR OUT NEXT FOUR OUT NEXT FOUR OUT


Kansas State Saint Mary's (56) Clemson (57)


Vanderbilt Vanderbilt (57) Georgetown (58)


Alabama Washington (58) Texas Tech (59)


Saint Bonaventure Princeton (61) Tulsa (60)
BY CONFERENCE BY CONFERENCE BY CONFERENCE


ACC: 8 ACC: 8 ACC: 7


Pac-12: 8 Big 12: 7 Big 12: 7


Big 12: 6 Atlantic 10: 6 SEC: 7


Big Ten: 6 Pac-12: 6 Big Ten: 6


Big East: 5 SEC: 6 Big East: 5


SEC: 5 Big East: 4 Pac-12: 5


American: 3 Big Ten: 4 Atlantic 10: 4


Atlantic 10: 3 American: 2 American: 3


One-Bid Leagues: 24 Colonial: 2 West Coast: 2



One-Bid Leagues: 23 One-Bid Leagues: 23

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