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Metric-Based Bracketology: More Harmony With The RPI

This week's projected bracket is still sizably different than a KenPom-forecast one, with five teams missing. But the RPI-driven bracket is only three teams off. Villanova leads the way in both, swapping places with Kansas.

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Note: Both KenPom and BBState (my RPI source) require a subscription.

Considering that both the Atlantic 10's St. Bonaventure Bonnies and George Washington Colonials are teams I've got in the Last Four Out, the differences between my projected bracket and RPI one aren't too stark. Note that Princeton's results don't really match up with their RPI, so they're further down my consideration list.

KenPom still rates Vanderbilt, Gonzaga, Butler, Kansas State, and Creighton more highly than even the RPI does. Considering the last two aren't even my last eight out and some of the seeding differences (Wichita State as a three, for example), the differences between that projection and mine are far more stark.

RANK SEED BRACKET RPI KENPOM
1 1 Kansas* Villanova* Villanova*
2 1 Villanova* Kansas* Virginia
3 1 Oklahoma Oklahoma Michigan State
4 1 North Carolina* Oregon Kansas*
5 2 Virginia Virginia Oklahoma
6 2 Xavier Xavier North Carolina*
7 2 Miami Miami Iowa (Louisville, 7th)
8 2 Iowa North Carolina* Kentucky*
9 3 Maryland Maryland Wichita State*
10 3 Michigan State Utah Duke
11 3 Oregon Duke West Virginia
12 3 West Virginia Kentucky* Arizona*
13 4 Iowa State West Virginia Xavier
14 4 Utah Iowa (SMU, 14th) Miami
15 4 Duke Michigan State Purdue
16 4 Kentucky* Dayton Oregon
17 5 Indiana* Iowa State Iowa State
18 5 Purdue Baylor Indiana*
19 5 Notre Dame Texas (Louisville, 20th) Maryland
20 5 Arizona Purdue Texas A&M
21 6 Dayton Texas A&M Notre Dame (SMU, 22nd)
22 6 Texas A&M Texas Tech Connecticut
23 6 Texas Saint Joseph's Baylor
24 6 Baylor Notre Dame California
25 7 California California Utah
26 7 South Carolina Indiana* Texas
27 7 USC Florida Cincinnati
28 7 Pittsburgh South Carolina Vanderbilt
29 8 Saint Joseph's Arizona* Valparaiso*
30 8 Colorado USC Texas Tech
31 8 Providence St. Bonaventure VCU*
32 8 Florida Oregon State Seton Hall
33 9 Connecticut Pittsburgh Gonzaga
34 9 Wichita State* Providence Florida
35 9 Texas Tech Colorado Little Rock*
36 9 Michigan Connecticut Wisconsin
37 10 VCU* Tulsa USC
38 10 Syracuse Princeton Saint Joseph's
39 10 Wisconsin Alabama Saint Mary's*
40 10 Temple* Wisconsin Butler
41 11 Cincinnati Seton Hall Creighton
42 11 Seton Hall Monmouth* Syracuse
43 11 Tulsa Wichita State* Tulsa
44 11 Monmouth* Akron* Pittsburgh
45 11 Alabama Temple* Kansas State
46 11 Oregon State VCU* Michigan
47 12 Valparaiso* George Washington (49) Dayton (49)
48 12 Saint Mary's* Yale* Yale*
49 12 Chattanooga* Stony Brook* Hawai'i*
50 12 San Diego State* Little Rock* Stony Brook*
51 13 Little Rock* San Diego State* San Diego State*
52 13 Akron* Saint Mary's* Stephen F. Austin*
53 13 Stony Brook* Valparaiso* Monmouth*
54 13 UNC Wilmington* UNC Wilmington* UNC Wilmington*
55 14 Yale* Chattanooga* Akron*
56 14 IPFW* IPFW* Temple*
57 14 Hawai'i* Hawai'i* Chattanooga*
58 14 UAB* UAB* UAB*
59 15 Belmont* Belmont* New Mexico State*
60 15 Stephen F. Austin* Stephen F. Austin* Belmont*
61 15 New Mexico State* New Mexico* Weber State*
62 15 Winthrop* Winthrop* IPFW*
63 16 Weber State* Weber State* North Florida*
64 16 North Florida* North Florida* Winthrop*
65 16 Hampton* Bucknell* Bucknell*
66 16 Bucknell* Hampton* Wagner*
67 16 Wagner* Wagner* Texas Southern*
68 16 Texas Southern* Texas Southern* Hampton*
OUT OUT



Syracuse (50) Providence (56)



Michigan (51) South Carolina (57)



Cincinnati (56) Oregon State (63)




Alabama (70)




Colorado (71)





LAST FOUR OUT LAST FOUR OUT LAST FOUR OUT


George Washington Syracuse (50) UCLA (52)


Butler Michigan (51) Clemson (53)


St. Bonaventure Butler (55) Florida State (54)


Gonzaga Cincinnati (56) Princeton (55)
NEXT FOUR OUT NEXT FOUR OUT NEXT FOUR OUT


Vanderbilt Saint Mary's (56) Providence (56)


Ohio State Vanderbilt (57) South Carolina (57)


Washington Washington (58) BYU (59)


Florida State Princeton (61) Georgia Tech (61)
BY CONFERENCE BY CONFERENCE BY CONFERENCE


ACC: 7 Big 12: 7 Big 12: 8


Big 12: 7 Pac-12: 7 ACC: 7


Big Ten: 7 ACC: 6 Big Ten: 6


Pac-12: 7 Big Ten: 6 Big East: 5


SEC: 5 A 10: 5 Pac-12: 5


American: 4 SEC: 5 SEC: 4


Big East: 4 Big East: 4 Atlantic 10: 3


Atlantic 10: 3 American: 3 American: 3


One-Bid Leagues: 24 Ivy: 2 West Coast: 2



One-Bid Leagues: 23 One-Bid Leagues: 23

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