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As Selection Weekend has arrived, and the letters R, P, and I have moved to their annual, short-term position of national prominence, dominating conversations in places outside of Troy, New York for a few days, I figured it was time to present my annual look at how a bracket based solely on this metric compares to one created by a committee (or in my case, person) that is based on a lot more data. As an added bonus, I've added a projection based one the most popular metric out there that uses advanced statistics to project a teams performance, Ken Pomeroy's ratings.
Since I feel this will be the year that this hobby of mine will actually jump the shark, thanks to the sheer unpredictability of the teams in the middle and lower portions of the at-large pool, I thought it was especially important to show the impact different ratings systems could have on the selection and seeding process. By comparing these simple approaches to a bracket that was created based on real analysis and comparisons, albeit by one person instead of 10, you can appreciate how difficult the selection committee's job really is, particularly in a season as wacky the 2010-11 campaign.
After the jump, three sets of S-curves and brackets, with a smattering of analysis on the single-metric ones.
For starters, here's how my Thursday S-curve and bracket look. I used every tool at disposal to create this projection: selection sheets from Basketball State, the RPI, my own knowledge of the teams and how they've been playing all season (and of late), and Ken Pomeroy's and Basketball State's differing ratings.
Teams in bold have clinched their respective league's automatic bid.
| 1 line | 1. Kansas* |
2. Ohio State* |
3. Pittsburgh* | 4. Notre Dame |
| 2 line | 8. Purdue |
7. Florida* | 6. San Diego State |
5. Duke |
| 3 line | 9. BYU* | 10. North Carolina |
11. Syracuse |
12. Texas |
| 4 line | 16. St. John's |
15. Louisville |
14. Kentucky | 13. Wisconsin |
| 5 line | 17. Arizona |
18. Connecticut |
19. Xavier* | 20. West Virginia |
| 6 line | 24. Temple | 23. Cincinnati | 22. Kansas State | 21. Vanderbilt |
| 7 line | 25. Georgetown |
26. Texas A&M | 27. UNLV | 28. Old Dominion* |
| 8 line | 32. Missouri | 31. UCLA |
30. George Mason |
29. Florida State |
| 9 line | 33. Tennessee | 34. Utah State |
35. Gonzaga* |
36. Marquette |
| 10 line | 40. Villanova | 39. Butler* |
38. Michigan |
37. Illinois |
| 11 line | 41. Washington | 42. Georgia |
43. Richmond |
44. St. Mary's |
| 12 line | 48. Clemson (First Four) |
47. Virginia Tech (First Four) |
46. Michigan State (First Four) |
45. Boston College |
| 13 line | 49. Colorado (First Four) |
50. UAB* | 51. Belmont* (13 seeds begin) |
52. Harvard* |
| 14 line | 56. Kent State* | 55. Wofford* (14 seeds begin) |
54. Indiana State* |
53. Oakland* |
| 15 line | 57. Bucknell* |
58. Long Beach State* |
59. Morehead State* (15 seeds begin) |
60. St. Peter's* |
| 16 line | 64. UNC Asheville* | 63. Boston University* (16 seeds begin) |
62. Northern Colorado* | 61. Long Island* |
| 17 line (First Four) |
65. Arkansas-Little Rock* | 66. Bethune-Cookman* | 67. McNeese State* |
68. Texas Southern* |
| First Four Out |
69. Alabama | 70. USC | 71. Memphis | 72. Penn State |
| Next Four Out |
76. Washington State | 75. Missouri State | 74. Colorado State | 73. VCU |
National Semifinal Matchups
(1) Southwest vs. (4) West
(2) East vs. (3) Southeast
First Four
Automatic Bid Teams
March 15: Bethune-Cookman (MEAC) vs. ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (Sun Belt) (NEW) to Washington on March 17th
March 16: McNeese State (Southland) vs. Texas Southern (SWAC) to Cleveland on March 18th
At-Large Teams (Last Four In)
March 15: Michigan State vs. Virginia Tech to Denver on March 17th
March 16: Clemson vs. Colorado to Cleveland on March 18th
Next Four In (automatically in the Round of 64): Georgia, Richmond, St. Mary's, Boston College,
Previous seeds are in parentheses. Teams that have earned an auto bid are in ALL CAPS.
| SOUTHWEST San Antonio (March 25 and 27) |
EAST Newark (March 25 and 27) |
|
Tulsa (Fri/Sun) |
Cleveland (Fri/Sun) |
|
1. Kansas (Big 12) 16. UNC ASHEVILLE (Big South) |
1. Ohio State (Big Ten) 16. McNeese State/Texas Southern |
|
8. George Mason 9. Tennessee |
8. Missouri 9. Marquette (11) |
| Denver (Thu/Sat) |
Tucson (Thu/Sat) |
|
5. Arizona 12. Michigan State/Virginia Tech |
5. Xavier (Atlantic 10) 12. Boston College |
|
4. Louisville 13. BELMONT (Atlantic Sun) (12) |
4. St. John's 13. INDIANA STATE (Missouri Valley) |
| Charlotte (Fri/Sun) | Washington (Thu/Sat) |
|
6. Kansas State 11. Richmond |
6. Vanderbilt 11. Washington |
|
3. North Carolina (ACC) 14. Bucknell (Patriot) |
3. Syracuse 14. WOFFORD (Southern) |
| Chicago (Fri/Sun) | Charlotte (Fri/Sun) |
|
7. Georgetown (6) 10. BUTLER (Horizon) (11) |
7. UNLV 10. Illinois |
|
2. Purdue 15. MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley) |
2. Duke 15. ST. PETER'S (Metro Atlantic) |
| WEST (Anaheim: March 24 and 26) |
SOUTHEAST (New Orleans: March 24 and 26) |
| Chicago (Fri/Sun) |
Washington (Thu/Sat) |
|
1. Notre Dame 16. Boston University (America East) |
1. Pittsburgh (Big East) 16. Bethune-Cookman/UALR |
|
8. UCLA 9. GONZAGA (West Coast) |
8. Florida State 9. Utah State (WAC) |
| Cleveland (Fri/Sun) |
Tampa (Thu/Sat) |
|
5. West Virginia 12. Clemson/Colorado |
5. Connecticut 12. UAB (Conference USA) |
|
4. Kentucky 13. OAKLAND (Summit) |
4. Wisconsin 13. Harvard (Ivy) |
| Tulsa (Fri/Sun) |
Denver (Thu/Sat) |
|
6. Cincinnati 11. Georgia |
6. Temple (7) 11. St. Mary's |
|
3. Texas 14. Long Beach State (Big West) (15) |
3. BYU (Mountain West) 14. Kent State (MAC) |
| Tucson (Thu/Sat) |
Tampa (Thu/Sat) |
|
7. OLD DOMINION (Colonial) 10. Michigan |
7. Texas A&M 10. Villanova (9) |
|
2. San Diego State 15. NORTHERN COLORADO (Big Sky) |
2. Florida (SEC) 15. LONG ISLAND (Northeast) |
Conference Breakdown
Big East: 11
ACC, Big Ten, Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
A-10, MWC, Pac-10: 3
CAA, WCC: 2
21 one-bid conferences
RPI-Only Bracket
The second S-curve and bracket in this post are based solely on the RPI. I only made minor tweaks to fulfill the biggest bracketing rules (preventing early conference rematches, keeping teams from playing on their home floor. separating the first three teams in a conference when possible). However, I didn't go out of my way to prevent first weekend regular season rematches.
Teams in bold have clinched their respective league's automatic bid.
| 1 line | 1. Kansas* | 2. Ohio State* | 3. San Diego State | 4. BYU* |
| 2 line | 8. Purdue | 7. Pittsburgh* | 6. North Carolina* | 5. Duke |
| 3 line | 9. Notre Dame | 10. Florida* | 11. Georgetown | 12. Kentucky |
| 4 line | 16. Arizona* | 15. West Virginia | 14. Texas | 13. Wisconsin |
| 5 line | 17. Utah State* | 18. Syracuse | 19. Kansas State | 20. Xavier* |
| 6 line | 24. UNLV | 23. St. John's | 22. Old Dominion* | 21. Louisville |
| 7 line | 25. Connecticut | 26. Vanderbilt | 27. George Mason | 28. UAB* |
| 8 line | 32. Missouri | 31. Cincinnati | 30. Texas A&M | 29. Temple |
| 9 line | 33. UCLA | 34. Harvard* | 35. Butler* | 36. Tennessee |
| 10 line | 40. Illinois | 39. Georgia | 38. Memphis (NEW) | 37. Villanova |
| 11 line | 41. Cleveland State (NEW) | 42. Missouri State (NEW) | 43. Colorado State (NEW) | 44. Boston College |
| 12 line | 48. St. Mary's (First Four) |
47. Michigan State (First Four) |
46. Washington | 45. Florida State |
| 13 line | 49. Princeton (NEW) (First Four) |
50. VCU (NEW) (First Four) |
51. Oakland* (13 seeds begin) |
52. Belmont* |
| 14 line | 56. Bucknell* | 55. Long Island* (14 seeds begin) |
54. Morehead State* |
53. Gonzaga* |
| 15 line | 57. Kent State* | 58. Indiana State* | 59. Long Beach State* (15 seeds begin) |
60. St. Peter's* |
| 16 line | 64. UNC Asheville* | 63. Boston University* (16 seeds begin) |
62. Northern Colorado* | 61. Wofford* |
| 17 line (First Four) |
65. McNeese State* | 66. Texas Southern* | 67. Arkansas-Little Rock* | 68. Bethune-Cookman* |
| First Four Out |
69. Marshall Thundering Herd | 70. Southern Miss. Golden Eagles | 71. Penn State | 72. Michigan |
| Next Four Out |
76. Wichita St. Shockers | 75. UTEP Miners | 74. Clemson | 73. Richmond |
National Semifinal Matchups
(1) Southwest vs. (4) Southeast
(2) East vs. (3) West
First Four
Automatic Bid Teams
March 15: ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (Sun Belt) vs. Bethune-Cookman (MEAC) to Denver on March 17th
March 16: McNeese State (Southland) vs. Texas Southern (SWAC) to Tulsa on March 18th
At-Large Teams (Last Four In)
March 15: Princeton Tigers (NEW) vs. St. Mary's to Tucson on March 17th
March 16: Michigan State vs. VCU (NEW) to Tulsa on March 18th
Next Four In (automatically in the Round of 64): Colorado State, Boston College, Florida State, Washington
Teams that have earned an auto bid are in ALL CAPS.
Conference Breakdown
Big East: 10
Big Ten, Big 12, SEC: 5
ACC, MWC: 4
CAA, Pac-10: 3
A-10, C-USA, Horizon, Ivy, MVC, WCC: 2
17 one-bid conferences
The best thing about this RPI-only bracket is that a whopping 14 conferences receive more than one bid, and eight at-larges come from below the Red Line. However, the seeding doesn't take into account how teams are playing right now, with their current roster. (See three seed Georgetown.) The seeding also shows that going merely by the RPI doesn't allow the committee to go inside the numbers. Take UAB, a 12 seed in my Thursday projection (and out on Friday's after their C-USA quarterfinal loss to East Carolina), for example. In this bracket, they'd be a seven, despite having only one win over a Top 50 team (VCU) and several over teams rated between 51-100 who don't have much hope for selection in the real world.
Remember, the RPI is not a basketball-specific tool; thus, it can be used to rate any sport. And even though the NCAA has tweaked the base formula, it's still not perfect. By design, it requires users to go deeper into the numbers and not accept them as truth.
KenPom.com Bracket
The final S-curve and bracket for this post are based solely on the ratings found at KenPom.com. Since this is a more predictive ratings system than the RPI, expect this look to be radically different. I followed the same rules as in the RPI-only bracket, so my tweaking is minimal.
I decided to add this projection because of some chatter on Twitter about whether the Selection Committee uses more advanced statistical tools, like Ken Pomeroy's ratings, when evaluating teams. Evidence suggests they don't, but I figured a bracket based on this ranking system was a worthy avenue to explore.
Teams in bold have clinched their respective league's automatic bid.
| 1 line | 1. Ohio State* | 2. Kansas* | 3. Duke | 4. Purdue |
| 2 line | 8. BYU* | 7. Wisconsin | 6. Pittsburgh* | 5. Texas |
| 3 line | 9. San Diego State |
10. Kentucky | 11. North Carolina* |
12. Syracuse |
| 4 line | 16. Washington | 15. Notre Dame |
14. Louisville | 13. Utah State* |
| 5 line | 17. Cincinnati | 18. Illinois | 19. Florida* |
20. Belmont* |
| 6 line | 24. Kansas State |
23. Connecticut | 22. UNLV | 21. West Virginia |
| 7 line | 25. Missouri | 26. Georgetown | 27. Vanderbilt |
28. George Mason |
| 8 line | 32. St. John's |
31. Villanova | 30. Marquette | 29. Arizona* |
| 9 line | 33. Gonzaga* | 34. Clemson | 35. Xavier* | 36. Maryland (NEW) |
| 10 line | 40. Florida State |
39. UCLA | 38. Temple | 37. Virginia Tech |
| 11 line | 41. New Mexico (NEW) | 42. USC (NEW) | 43. Michigan State |
44. Michigan |
| 12 line | 48. Washington State (NEW) (First Four) |
47. Alabama (NEW) (First Four) |
46. Texas A&M (First Four) |
45. Nebraska (NEW) (First Four) |
| 13 line | 49. Old Dominion* | 50. UAB* | 51. Butler* (13 seeds begin) |
52. Oakland* |
| 14 line | 56. Bucknell* | 55. Wofford* (14 seeds begin) |
54. Long Beach State* |
53. Harvard* |
| 15 line | 57. Morehead State* | 58. Indiana State* | 59. St. Peter's* (15 seeds begin) |
60. Long Island* |
| 16 line | 64. Boston University* | 63. UNC Asheville* (16 seeds begin) |
62. Kent State* | 61. Northern Colorado* |
| 17 line (First Four) |
65. Arkansas-Little Rock* | 66. McNeese State* | 67. Texas Southern* | 68. Bethune-Cookman* |
| First Four Out |
69. Penn State |
70. St. Mary's |
71. Richmond | 72. Tennessee |
| Next Four Out |
76. Colorado | 75. Duquesne |
74. Minnesota | 73.Georgia |
National Semifinal Matchups
(1) East vs. (4) West
(2) Southwest vs. (3) Southeast
First Four
Automatic Bid Teams
March 15: McNeese State (Southland) vs. Texas Southern (SWAC) to Chicago on March 18th
March 16: ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (Sun Belt) vs. Bethune-Cookman (MEAC) to Cleveland on March 18th
At-Large Teams (Last Four In)
March 15: Alabama (NEW) vs. Texas A&M to Tucson on March 17th
March 16: Nebraska (NEW) vs. Washington State (NEW) to Cleveland on March 18th
Next Four In (automatically in the Round of 64): New Mexico, USC, Michigan State, Michigan
Teams that have earned an auto bid are in ALL CAPS.
Conference Breakdown
Big East: 11
ACC, Big Ten, Big 12: 6
Pac-10: 5
MWC, SEC: 4
A-10, CAA: 2
22 one-bid conferences
Since Kem Pomeroy's ratings incorporate a team's level of competitiveness, some of these seedings are particularly surprisng, like Washington and Utah State finding themselves on the four line and Belmont rising up to a five. Luck, via the Pythagorean winning percentage, is a key piece of the ratings system, so teams that lose a lot of close games do better than they would in other rankings.
For me, the key takeaway from this bracket is that the selection process would favor the major conference, as just two teams from below the Red Line would make it in as an at-large based on the KenPom ratings, but teams that rolled through their conferences (Belmont and Utah State) would be rewarded in the seeding process.
Note that the Big East received 11 bids in this projection and 10 in the RPI-based one.
While it's interesting to look at alternate selection approaches and metrics, I firmly believe the system we have now is the best way to do things. That's not to say that it's perfect, as it's not, thanks to the potential of over-reliance on the RPI, the ignorance of other metrics, and the fact that the administrators who are appointed on the committee have other things to deal with to spend the majority of the five months from November to March focusing on hoops alone. (I'm looking at you, Gene Smith.)
Perhaps it's time to get basketball voices, not people who may know their stuff but who have to deal with 15 to 20 other sports too, more involved in the process.
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