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Surveying The Bubble: February 12, 2010

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Since Selection Sunday is a little more than four weeks away, I wanted to take a moment (actually a few) to share with you how I see the field shaping up. 

One-Bid Only 

There are 15 conferences that fit in this category: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, and Sun Belt.

Shot At Two

Right now, I think 9 conferences have a shot at grabbing two spots. For each of these, I've listed the team who has the auto bid as of right now. While I consider three of these teams locks, all of them have at least a slight at-large hopes, so I'll discuss them in more detail later. 

Colonial: Northeastern
C-USA:
UTEP
Horizon:
Butler (lock)
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: 
Siena
Missouri Valley:
Northern Iowa (lock)
Pacific-10:
California
West Coast: Gonzaga (lock)
Western Athletic: Utah State

Locks 

These are the 18 teams from the multi-bid leagues that I would consider locks for the Tournament at this point.

ACC: Duke
A-10: Temple
Big East: Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Big 12: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State
Mountain West: BYU, New Mexico
SEC: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Near Locks 

These are the 9 teams that are very close to being locked into the field.

ACC: Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
A-10: Rhode Island
Big East: Pittsburgh
Big Ten: Illinois
Big 12: Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri
MWC: UNLV

After the jump, I'll take at the big group that's fighting for the remaining spots.

Here's the relatively large group of teams that I currently have under consideration. For each, I've listed reasons why the team should and shouldn't be included in the field, along with their remaining regular season games. 

I've included many of the factors the Committee looks at when comparing teams.

  • Record
  • RPI
  • Non-conference RPI: How does the strength of a team's non-league schedule compare to its conference slate.
  • Road/Neutral Record: Since you're not likely to play Tournament games close to home when you're a bubble team.
  • Record vs. the RPI Top 50 and 100: As a bubble team, these are crucial, as wins against the top 50 and 100 show you could possibly gain a win against a team in the field.
  • Record vs. teams rated 101+ in the RPI: Did you beat the teams you were supposed to defeat?
  • Average RPI Loss: The lower the better, as a higher average loss may indicate that a team struggled against inferior competition.
  • Average RPI Win: This number is going to typically be high, as you are going to face some bad teams. It just should never be too high.
  • Key wins and losses and where they took place (home, semi-home, neutral, semi-away, away)

Keep in mind, however, that I feel that the eye test is the best judge of Tourney-worthiness.

Note that 7 of the teams on this list -- Cal, Cornell, Northeastern, Richmond, Siena, UTEP, and Utah State -- would all hold auto bids in a current bracket. That means, when you add in the auto bids, locks, and almost-locks from above, 52 teams are accounted for. That leaves just 13 bubble spots.

As the last few weeks of the season play out, I'll talk more about this information, but for right now, I just want to share it with you.

Data is from Crashing The Dance.

Team The Case For The Case Against Remaining Games
UAB
  • RPI: 31
  • Non-conference RPI: 16
  • Record: 19-4
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-4 (1-0 vs. Top 50)
  • Road/Neutral Record: 9-3
  • Home wins over Butler, Cincinnati, Tulsa

  • Average RPI Loss: 69
  • Home loss to UTEP
  • Losses at Kent State, Memphis, and Virginia
2/13 Marshall
2/17 @Southern Miss
2/20 Houston
2/24 @UCF
2/27 Tulane
3/3 Memphis
3/6@UTEP
Arizona State
  • Record: 17-8
  • Beat San Diego State and Washington at home
  • RPI: 75
  • Non-conference RPI: 69
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 2-7 (1-4 vs. Top 50)
  • Road/Neutral Record: 4-5
  • Lost to Arizona, Baylor, Cal at home
  • Lost at BYU, UCLA, USC, Washington
  • Lost to Duke on a neutral court
2/13 Oregon
2/21 @Arizona
2/25 @Stanford
2/27 @Cal
3/4 USC
3/6 UCLA
California
  • RPI: 24
  • Non-conference RPI: 10
  • Record: 16-8
  • Record vs. RPI 51-100: 4-3
  • Home wins over Murray State, USC, Washington
  • Won at Arizona State
  • Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-4
  • Road/Neutral Record: 4-7
  • Lost at Arizona, Kansas, New Mexico, USC, Washington
  • Lost to Ohio State and Syracuse at a neutral site
2/13 Washington State
2/18 @Oregon State
2/20 @Oregon
2/25 Arizona
2/27 Arizona State
3/6 @Stanford
Charlotte
  • RPI: 41
  • Record: 18-6
  • Average RPI Loss: 25
  • Road/Neutral Record: 9-5
  • Defeated Temple at home.
  • Won at Richmond and Louisville.
  • Perfect against teams rated 101+ in the RPI.

 

  • Non-conference RPI: 64
  • Four of five road losses were blowouts: Duke, Tennessee, Dayton, and Old Dominion.
  • Only 3-6 against the RPI Top 50.

 

2/17 Duquesne
2/20 Xavier
2/24 St. Joseph's
2/27 @Geo. Washington
3/3 @Rhode Island
3/6 Richmond
Cincinnati
  • Non-conference RPI: 41
  • Average RPI loss: 39
  • Neutral site wins over Maryland and Vanderbilt
  • Home wins over UConn, Notre Dame, USF
  • RPI: 59
  • Record: 14-9
  • Road/Neutral Record: 3-7
  • Record against RPI Top 100: 5-9 (3-6 vs. Top 50)
  • Road losses at UAB, Louisville, Notre Dame, St. John's, Seton Hall, Xavier
2/13 @UConn
2/16 @USF
2/21 Marquette
2/24 DePaul
2/27 @West Virginia
3/2 Villanova
3/6 @Georgetown
Clemson 
  • RPI: 35
  • Non-conference RPI: 40
  • Record: 17-7
  • Average RPI loss: 36
  • Road/Neutral Record: 6-5
  • Neutral site win over Butler
  • Home wins over BC, Florida State, Maryland, UNC
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 6-7 (3-5 vs. Top 50)
  • Neutral site loss to Texas A&M
  • Home collapse against Illinois
  • Road losses to BC, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech

2/13 Miami
2/20 Virginia
2/24 @Maryland
2/28 @Florida State
3/2 Georgia Tech
3/7 @Wake Forest

Connecticut
  • Non-conference RPI: 19
  • Record against RPI 51-100: 6-2
  • Home wins over Notre Dame, Seton Hall, Texas, and William & Mary
  • Close losses to Duke, Kentucky and at Georgetown

 

  • RPI: 52
  • Record: 14-10
  • Road/Neutral Record: 1-8
  • Record against RPI Top 50: 1-6
  • Record against RPI 101-200: 5-2
  • Road losses to Cincinnati, Marquette, Michigan, and Providence

2/13 Cincinnati
2/15 @Villanova
2/20 @Rutgers
2/22 West Virginia
2/28 Louisville
3/3 @Notre Dame
3/6 @USF

Cornell
  • RPI: 50
  • Non-conference RPI: 38
  • Record: 17-3
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-3 (0-2 vs. Top 50)
  • Road/Neutral Record: 10-2
  • Road wins at Alabama, Drexel, St. John's
  • Home win over Harvard
  • Losses at Kansas and Syracuse
  • Home loss to Seton Hall
2/12 @Penn
2/13 @Princeton
2/19 @Harvard
2/20 @Dartmouth
2/26 Princeton
2/27 Penn
3/5 @Brown
3/6 @Yale
Dayton  
  • RPI: 32
  • Non-conference RPI: 14
  • Record: 17-6
  • Average RPI Loss: 41
  • Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5
  • Road/Neutral Record: 5-5
  • Defeated Georgia Tech on a neutral floor.
  • Avenged 4-pt. loss at Xavier with 25-pt. home win.
  • Home wins over Old Dominion and Charlotte.

 

  • Lost by 1 at St. Joseph's (RPI 176)
  • Lost to Villanova and Kansas State at a neutral site
  • Lost at New Mexico and Xavier.
  • Lost at home to Rhode Island. 
2/13 @St. Louis
2/18 La Salle
2/21 @Duquesne
2/24 @Temple
2/27 UMass
3/4 @Richmond
3/6 St. Louis
Florida
  • Record: 17-7
  • Road/Neutral Record: 6-4
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 6-6 (4-1 vs. 51-100)
  • Neutral site win over Michigan State
  • Home wins over Florida State, Mississippi State, South Carolina
  • RPI: 57
  • Non-conference RPI: 81
  • Road loss to South Carolina
  • Semi-home loss to Richmond
  • Home loss to South Alabama
2/13 Xavier
2/18 Auburn
2/20 @Mississippi
2/23 Tennessee
2/27 @Georgia
3/2 Vanderbilt
3/7 @Kentucky
Florida State 
  • RPI: 40
  • Non-conference RPI: 45
  • Record: 17-7
  • Road/Neutral Record: 6-5
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 8-6 (3-5 vs. Top 50)
  • Swept Georgia Tech
  • Beat Miami and Virginia Tech at home
  • Beat Marquette on a neutral floor
  • Swept by Maryland
  • Lost at home to NC State
  • Lost at Clemson and Florida
2/14 Boston College
2/17 @Virginia
2/24 @North Carolina
2/28 Clemson
3/3 Wake Forest
3/6 @Miami
Louisiana Tech 
  • Road/Neutral Record: 10-4
  • Home wins over Murray State, Nevada, Utah State
  • RPI: 73
  • Non-conference RPI: 82
  • Average RPI Win: 209
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 3-4 (1-1 vs. Top 50)
  • Lost at Arizona and New Mexico
  • Swept by New Mexico State
  • Lost at San Jose State
2/13 Hawai'i
2/17 @Utah State
2/20 @Northeastern
2/25 Boise State
2/27 Idaho
3/4 @Fresno State
3/6 @Nevada
Louisville 
  • RPI: 46
  • Home wins over Cincinnati, UConn, USF
  • Non-conference RPI: 53
  • Record: 15-9
  • Road/Neutral Record: 2-6
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-8 (1-6 vs. Top 50)
  • Road losses at St. John's, Seton Hall, and UNLV
  • Home losses to Charlotte and Western Carolina
2/14 @Syracuse
2/17 Notre Dame
2/20 @DePaul
2/23 Georgetown
2/28 @UConn
3/2 @Marquette
3/6 Syracuse
Marquette
  • Home win over Georgetown
  • Neutral site win over Xavier
  • Road win at UConn
  • RPI: 65
  • Non-conference RPI: 132
  • Record: 14-8
  • Road/Neutral Record: 4-6
  • Record vs. RPI 101+: 11-2
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 3-6
  • Home loss to NC State
  • Road loss at DePaul

2/13 USF
2/18 Pitt
2/21 @Cincinnati
2/24 @St. John's
2/28 @Seton Hall
3/2 Louisville
3/6 Notre Dame
Maryland
  • RPI: 39
  • Record: 15-6
  • Average RPI loss: 30
  • Swept Florida State
  • Beat Miami and UNC at home
  • Non-conference RPI: 96
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-6 (2-4 vs. Top 50)
  • Road/Neutral Record: 4-5
  • Lost at Clemson and Wake Forest
  • Lost to Cincinnati, Villanova, and Wisconsin on neutral floors
  • Lost to William & Mary at home
2/13 @Duke
2/15 Virginia
2/17 @NC State
2/20 Georgia Tech
2/24 Clemson
2/27 @Virginia Tech
3/3 Duke
3/6 @Virginia
Memphis
  • Record: 17-7
  • Home win over UAB

  • RPI: 72
  • Non-conference RPI: 98
  • Average RPI Win: 194
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 3-5 (1-4 vs. Top 50)
  • Road/Neutral Record: 4-4
  • Home losses to Gonzaga, Tennessee, UTEP
  • Neutral site loss to Kansas
  • Loss at Syracuse
2/13 @Tulsa
2/17 @Tulane
2/20 SMU
2/24 @Houston
2/27 Southern Miss
3/3 @UAB
3/6 Tulsa
Miami
  • Record: 16-7
  • Road/Neutral Record: 6-6
  • Home wins over Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest
  • Semi-away win over South Carolina

  • RPI: 68
  • Non-conference RPI: 74
  • Average RPI win: 200
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-7 (3-4 vs. Top 50)
  • Road losses to Florida State, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest
  • Swept by BC

 

2/13 @Clemson
2/17 Duke
2/23 Virginia
2/27 NC State
3/2 @UNC
3/6 Florida State
Minnesota
  • Neutral site win over Butler
  • Home wins over Northwestern and Ohio State
  • RPI: 78
  • Non-conference RPI: 55
  • Record: 14-9
  • Road/Neutral Record: 3-7
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 3-7 (2-5 vs. Top 50)
  • Record vs. RPI 101+: 11-2
  • Swept by Michigan State
  • Losses at Indiana, Miami, Ohio State, Purdue
  • Home loss to Michigan
  • Lost to Portland and Texas A&M at a neutral site

 

2/14 @Northwestern
2/18 Wisconsin
2/20 Indiana
2/24 Purdue
2/27 @Illinois
3/3 @Michigan
3/7 Iowa
Mississippi
  • RPI: 45
  • Non-conference RPI: 32
  • Record: 17-7
  • Road/Neutral Record: 6-5
  • Neutral site win over Kansas State
  • Home wins over UTEP and South Carolina
  • Average RPI Loss: 40
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-6 (1-4 vs. Top 50)
  • Swept by Mississippi State
  • Home loss to Arkansas
2/18 Vanderbilt
2/20 Florida
2/24 Auburn
2/27 @Alabama
3/4 LSU
3/6 @Arkansas
Mississippi State
  • Record: 17-7
  • Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-2
  • Home/Neutral Record: 6-6
  • Swept Mississippi
  • Neutral site win over Old Dominion
  • RPI: 64
  • Non-conference RPI: 75
  • Average RPI loss: 90
  • Record vs. RPI 51-100: 2-2
  • Record vs. RPI 101+: 12-3
  • Neutral site loss to Richmond
  • Road losses to Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Western Kentucky
  • Home loss to Rider
2/13 Auburn
2/16 Kentucky
2/20 @LSU
2/24 Alabama
2/27 @South Carolina
3/3 @Auburn
3/6 Tennessee
North Carolina
  • Average RPI loss: 37
  • Home wins over Michigan State and Virginia Tech
  • Neutral site win over Ohio State

  • Record: 13-11
  • RPI: 83
  • Non-conference RPI: 56
  • Road/Neutral Record: 2-7
  • Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-9
  • Record vs. RPI 51-100: 2-1
  • Home losses to Duke and Georgia Tech
  • Road losses to Clemson, College of Charleston (OT), Maryland, and Virginia Tech
2/13 NC State
2/16 @Georgia Tech
2/20 @BC
2/24 Florida State
2/27 @Wake Forest
3/2 Miami
3/6 @Duke
Northeastern
  • Record: 17-8
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 6-5 (2-3 vs. Top 50)
  • Road/Neutral Record: 8-6
  • Swept VCU
  • Home wins over Old Dominion and Utah state
  • RPI: 60
  • Non-conference RPI: 62
  • Average RPI Loss: 88
  • Record vs. RPI 101-200: 2-3
  • Lost at Boston University, Rhode Island, and Siena
  • Lost to Providence at home
  • Lost to St. Mary's and Western Michigan at a neutral site
  • Swept by Drexel
2/13 @William & Mary
2/16 @UNC Wilmington
2/20 Louisiana Tech
2/23 Hofstra
2/27 @George Mason
Northwestern
  • Record: 16-8
  • Home wins over Illinois and Purdue
  • Neutral site win over Notre Dame
  • RPI: 81
  • Non-conference RPI: 72
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 3-7 (1-5 vs. Top 50)
  • Road/Neutral Record: 3-5
  • Road losses to Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State
  • Home losses to Butler, Wisconsin

 

2/14 Minnesota
2/17 Penn State
2/21 @Wisconsin
2/25 Iowa
2/28 @Penn State
3/3 Chicago State
3/6 @Indiana
Notre Dame
  • Record against RPI Top 50: 3-2
  • Swept USF
  • Beat Cincinnati and Seton Hall at home

  • RPI: 66
  • Non-conference RPI: 99
  • Record: 17-8
  • Road/Neutral Record: 2-6
  • Record against RPI 51-100: 1-4
  • Home loss to Loyola Marymount
  • Road losses at Cincinnati, UConn, Rutgers, Seton Hall

 

2/14 St. John's
2/17 @Louisville
2/24 Pitt
2/27 @Georgetown
3/3 UConn
3/6 @Marquette

Oklahoma State
  • RPI: 37
  • Non-conference RPI: 36
  • Record: 15-7
  • Home wins over Texas A&M and Texas Tech
  • Win at Kansas State
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 3-7 (3-5 vs. Top 50)
  • Road/Neutral Record: 4-6
  • Losses at Baylor, MIssouri, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Tulsa
  • Home loss to Texas
  • Loss to Rhode Island at a neutral site
2/13 Oklahoma
2/17 @Iowa State
2/20 Baylor
2/24 @Texas
2/27 Kansas
3/3 @Texas A&M
3/6 Nebraska
Old Dominion
  • RPI: 36
  • Non-conference RPI: 28
  • Record: 19-7
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 6-6 (2-3 vs. Top 50)
  • Road/Neutral Record: 7-7
  • Road win at Georgetown
  • Big home win over Charlotte
  • Swept William & Mary
  • Lost at Dayton, George Mason, Northeastern, Richmond, VCU
  • Neutral site losses to Mississippi State and Missouri

 

2/13 George Mason
2/16 Towson
2/19 @Northern Iowa
2/23 @Georgia State
2/27 VCU
Richmond
  • RPI: 26
  • Non-conference RPI: 31
  • Record: 19-6
  • Road/Neutral Record: 8-5
  • 4-2 vs. RPI Top 50
  • Key non-conference wins over Florida (semi-away) and Mississippi State and Missouri (both neutral)
  • Won at Rhode Island and topped Temple at home
  • Lost three road games over bubble teams earlier in the season: South Carolina, VCU, and William &Mary
  • That means their record against teams rated between 51-100 in the RPI is just 2-3.
2/13 @St. Bonaventure
2/17 Fordham
2/20 Geo. Washington
2/28 @Xavier
3/4 Dayton
3/6 @Charlotte
St. Louis
  • Record: 14-8
  • Defeated Richmond at home.
  • RPI: 103
  • Non-conference RPI: 187
  • Average RPI loss: 91
  • Road/Neutral Record: 3-7
  • Record against RPI Top 100: 1-5
  • Road losses to Georgia, George Washington, and Bowling Green
  • Neutral court setbacks to Iowa State and Notre Dame.
  • Home loss to Missouri State.

 

2/13 Dayton
2/17 Rhode Island
2/21 @UMass
2/24 Xavier
2/27 Duquesne
3/3 Temple
3/6 @Dayton
St. Mary's
  • RPI: 42
  • Non-conference RPI: 26
  • Record: 20-4
  • Average RPI Loss: 35
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-4 (2-3 vs. Top 50)
  • Road/Neutral Record: 9-2
  • Home win over San Diego State
  • Neutral site win over Northeastern
  • Won at Utah State
  • Average RPI Win: 179
  • Lost to Vanderbilt at home
  • Swept by Gonzaga
  • Lost to USC at a neutral site
2/13 @Portland
2/18 @San Diego
2/25 Pepperdine
2/27 Loyola Marymount
San Diego State
  • RPI: 43
  • Non-conference RPI: 39
  • Record: 15-7
  • Road/Neutral Record: 6-6
  • Beat Arizona and New Mexico at home

 

  • Average RPI Loss: 75
  • Average RPI Win: 167
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 3-5 (1-4 vs. Top 50)
  • Lost at Arizona State, BYU, UNLV, New Mexico, Pacific, St. Mary's, and Wyoming
2/13 UNLV
2/16 @TCU
2/20 Utah
2/24 @BYU
3/3 Colorado State
3/6 @Air Force
Seton Hall
  • Average RPI Loss: 23
  • Record against RPI 51-100: 2-1
  • Home wins over Cincinnati, Louisville, Notre Dame, and Pitt
  • Road win at Cornell
  • RPI: 58
  • Non-conference RPI: 68
  • Record: 13-9
  • Record against RPI Top 50: 3-8
  • Road/Neutral Record: 2-6
  • Road losses to UConn and USF
  • Neutral site OT loss to Virginia Tech

 

2/14 DePaul
2/17 @St. John's
2/20 @West Virginia
2/23 Rutgers
2/28 Marquette
3/4 @Rutgers
3/6 @Providence
Siena
  • RPI: 33
  • Record: 21-4
  • Average RPI Loss: 36
  • Record vs. RPI 51-100: 3-1
  • Road/Neutral Record: 8-4
  • Beat Northeastern
  • Non-conference RPI: 89
  • Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-3
  • Average RPI Win: 183
  • Lost at Georgia Tech, Northern Iowa, Temple
  • Lost to St. John's at a neutral site
2/12 @Niagara
2/14 @Canisius
2/20 @Butler
2/26 @Rider
2/28 Marist
South Carolina
  • Average RPI loss: 50
  • Home wins over Florida, Kentucky, Richmond
  • Semi-home win over South Florida

  • RPI: 67
  • Non-conference RPI: 108
  • Record: 14-9
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-9 (3-5 vs. Top 50)
  • Road/Neutral Record: 1-6
  • Semi-home loss to Miami
  • Home loss to Baylor
  • Road losses at BC, Clemson, Florida, Mississippi, Wofford
2/13 @Georgia
2/16 @Arkansas
2/20 Tennessee
2/25 @Kentucky
2/27 Mississippi State
3/3 Alabama
3/6 @Vanderbilt
South Florida
  • RPI: 48
  • Record: 15-8
  • Road/Neutral Record: 7-5
  • Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3
  • Road win at Georgetown
  • Home wins over Pitt, Seton Hall, Virginia
  • Non-conference RPI: 58
  • Record vs. RPI 51-100: 3-4
  • Home loss to Central Michigan
  • Swept by Notre Dame
  • Road losses at Cincinnati and Louisville, semi-road loss to South Carolina

2/13 @Marquette
2/16 Cincinnati
2/20 St. John's
2/24 @Villanova
2/27 Providence
3/2 @DePaul
3/6 UConn
UTEP
  • Record: 18-5
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-4 (1-3 vs. Top 50)
  • Road/Neutral Record: 6-3
  • Wins at UAB and Memphis
  • Home wins over New Mexico State and Tulsa
  • RPI: 51
  • Non-conference RPI: 117
  • Losses at Houston, Texas Tech
  • Semi-away loss to Mississippi
  • Home losses to BYU and New Mexico State
2/13 East Carolina
2/20 @Tulsa
2/24 @Southern Miss
2/27 Rice
3/2 @Marshall
3/6 UAB
Texas Tech
  • RPI: 30
  • Non-conference RPI: 24
  • Record: 15-7
  • Home wins over Oklahoma State, UTEP, Washington
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-7 (1-6 vs. Top 50)
  • Road/Neutral Record: 3-6
  • Losses at Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M, Wichita State

 

2/13 Texas A&M
2/16 @Baylor
2/20 Texas
2/23 Kansas State
2/27 @Nebraska
3/2 Baylor
3/6 @Colorado
Tulsa
  • Home win over Oklahoma State
  • RPI: 62
  • Non-conference RPI: 94
  • Average RPI Win: 196
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 2-4 (1-1 vs. Top 50)
  • Road/Neutral Record: 4-5
  • Lost to Nebraska and Nevada at a neutral site
  • Lost at UAB, Missouri State, UTEP
2/13 Memphis
2/17 @Marshall
2/20 UTEP
2/25 @Duke
2/27 @East Carolina
3/3 SMU
3/6 @Memphis
Utah State
  • RPI: 47
  • Non-conference RPI: 65
  • Record: 18-6
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100 (1-1 vs. Top 50)
  • Road/Neutral Record: 6-5
  • Home win over BYU
  • Swept Nevada
  • Average RPI Loss: 91
  • Record vs RPI 101-200: 6-2
  • Home loss to St. Mary's
  • Lost at Long Beach State, Northeastern, and Utah
2/13 @San Jose State
2/17 Louisiana Tech
2/20 Wichita State
2/25 @Hawai'i
3/1 Fresno State
3/6 New Mexico State
Virginia
  • Record: 14-7
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 4-4 (2-4 vs. Top 50)
  • Home wins over UAB, Miami, and Georgia Tech
  • Road win at UNC
  • RPI: 88
  • Non-conference RPI: 170
  • Average RPI loss: 91
  • Road/Neutral Record: 3-4
  • Record against RPI Top 101+: 10-3
  • Home losses to Penn State and Virginia Tech
  • Road losses to Auburn and USF
  • Neutral court loss to Stanford
2/13 @Virginia Tech
2/15 @Maryland
2/17 Florida State
2/20 @Clemson
2/23 @Miami
2/28 Duke
3/2 @BC
3/6 Maryland
VCU
  • Non-conference RPI: 13
  • Record : 17-6
  • Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-0
  • Record vs. RPI 51-100: 3-4
  • Road/Neutral Record: 5-5
  • Home wins over Old Dominion, Rhode Island, Richmond, William & Mary
  • RPI: 56
  • Average RPI loss: 86
  • Record vs. RPI 101-200: 1-2
  • Swept by Northeastern
  • Losses at Drexel, George Mason, Western Michigan, William & Mary
2/13 @James Madison
2/16 Drexel
2/20 Akron
2/24 James Madison
2/27 @Old Dominion
Virginia Tech
  • RPI: 49
  • Record: 19-4
  • Record against RPI Top 100: 7-4 (1-2 vs. Top 50)
  • Road/Neutral Record: 7-4
  • Home wins over Clemson, Miami, UNC
  • Road win at Virginia
  • Neutral site OT win over Seton Hall
  • Non-conference RPI: 86
  • Average RPI win: 182
  • Four road losses came against Florida State, Miami, UNC, Temple
2/13 Virginia
2/16 Wake Forest
2/21 @Duke
2/24 @BC
2/27 Maryland
3/3 NC State
3/6 @Georgia Tech
Washington
  • Non-conference RPI: 20
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 7-6 (2-3 vs. Top 50)
  • Home wins over Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, Texas A&M
  • Record: 15-8
  • RPI: 61
  • Road/Neutral Record: 0-7
  • Losses at Arizona, Arizona State, Cal, USC, Texas Tech
  • Neutral site loss to Georgetown

 

2/13 @Stanford
2/18 USC
2/20 UCLA
2/27 @Washington State
3/4 @Oregon
3/6 @Oregon State
Wichita State
  • Record: 19-6
  • Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-2 (2-2 vs. Top 50)
  • Home wins over Northern Iowa and Texas Tech
  • Win at Missouri State
  • RPI: 53
  • Non-conference RPI: 77
  • Average RPI Loss: 111
  • Road/Neutral Record: 6-6
  • Record vs. RPI 101+: 14-4
  • Road losses to Creighton, Drake, Evansville, Illinois State, Northern Iowa
  • Neutral site loss to Pitt
2/14 Missouri State
2/17 Evansville
2/20 @Utah State
2/24 @Bradley
2/27 Southern Illinois
William & Mary
  • Non-conference RPI: 12
  • Record: 16-7
  • Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-2
  • Record vs. RPI 51-100: 3-3
  • Won at Maryland and Wake Forest
  • Home wins over Richmond and VCU
  • RPI: 54
  • Average RPI loss: 105
  • Record vs. RPI 201+: 7-2
  • Swept by Old Dominion
  • Lost at home to UNC Wilmington
  • Lost at UConn, Harvard, James Madison, VCU

2/13 Northeastern
2/16 @George Mason
2/19 @Iona
2/24 Towson
2/27 @UNC Wilmington
Xavier
  • RPI: 28
  • Non-conference RPI: 48
  • Record: 16-7
  • Average RPI loss: 25
  • Defeated Charlotte, Cincinnati, Dayton, and Rhode Island al at home.
  • Road/Neutral Record: 4-7
  • Record against RPI Top 50: 3-6
  • Record against RPI Top 25: 1-5
2/13 @Florida
2/17 St. Joseph's
2/20 @Charlotte
2/24 @St. Louis
2/28 Richmond
3/3 @Fordham
3/6 St. Bonaventure

 

Now that you see the kind of data I look at, I'm curious to know your thoughts. What teams from this list? What teams don't? Who do you think has the chance to make a run over the past few weeks?