college football
One Month Away Weekend Preview - 13-15 February
There's a lot on the weekend schedule, so before I get back to work on Saturday morning's bracket, I wanted to tell you about some of the games I'll be watching for Monday's edition.
Friday
Princeton @ Yale (YES, 7 EST) and Illinois-Chicago @ Butler (ESPNU, 7 EST) - Two conference leaders, one surprising, one not so much, take to the floor.
Villanova @ West Virginia (ESPN, 9 EST) - The Wildcats look to continue their assault on a top four finish in the Big East, while the Mountaineers are just trying to stay on the bubble. How will the Nova offense cope with the WVU D tonight?
Saturday
Georgetown @ Syracuse (ESPN, 12 EST) - The Hoyas can't possibly shoot as well at the Dome as they did at Verizon a few weeks back, can they? Both teams are in dire need of a win.
Northeastern @ George Mason (CSN Mid-Atlantic/CSN New England/CSS, 12 EST) - This game isn't quite as meaningful now that the Patriots lost to Delaware Thursday night. Huskies are still tied with VCU atop the standings.
Connecticut @ Seton Hall (Big East/MASN/CST/SNY, 12 EST ) - The Huskies now have to learn to live without Jerome Dyson. The real test probably comes Monday against Pitt, however.
Kentucky @ Arkansas or UCLA @ Arizona (CBS Regional, 1 EST) - Both sets of Wildcats are looking to keep winning to make the field. UCLA can't afford to be swept in the Cactus State.
Colgate @ American (ESPNU, 1 EST) - Rematch of last year's Pat League final sees the Eagles four games up on the Red Raiders in this year's race.
Minnesota @ Penn State (Big Ten, 1:30 EST) - Nittany Lions are sliding badly after making a brief appearance in my projection. A win over the Gophers would put them back on track.
Nebraska @ Missouri (Big 12 Regional/Altitude/Full Court, 1:30 EST) - With the performance of both of these teams lately, this game is a lot bigger than it looked like it would be back when the Huskers beat the Tigers in Lincoln on January 10.
Texas @ Colorado (ESPN, 2 EST) - This game is only on here because the Longhorns need to build a win streak.
VCU@ Old Dominion (CSN Mid-Atlantic/CSN New England/CSS, 2 EST) - Rams will try to pull ahead of or keep pace with Northeastern.
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee or South Carolina @ Alabama (Raycom Regional/Full Court, 3 EST) - SEC East teams look to solidify their bid cases. Remember, the Vols have a bit more to fall back outside of the league than the Gamecocks do.
Kansas @ Kansas State or Florida @ Georgia (ABC Regional/Full Court, 3:30 EST) - K-State looks to beat the Jayhawks at Bramlage for the second straight year. Gators need to recover from the heartbreak of Tuesday night.
Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (ESPN, 4 EST) - The Panthers can't be caught looking ahead to Monday night's meeting with UConn.
Purdue @ Iowa (Big Ten, 4 EST) - Another game the Boilers should be able to win without Robbie Hummel.
Davidson @ Furman (MASN, 4 EST) - After the loss to Charleston a week ago, the Wildcats are going to pop up on this list anytime they're on TV. They can't afford any further slip-ups in the league to get an at-large.
Air Force @ Utah (the mtn., 4 EST) - The Utes try to extend their lead at the top of the MWC.
Virginia Tech @ Maryland or Florida State at Wake Forest (Raycom Regional/Full Court, 4 EST) - Hokies-Terps is a huge game for both teams tourney hopes. The Demon Deacons, meanwhile, face another potential pothole.
Creighton @ Southern Illinois (ESPN2, 5 EST) - Not as big as it normally is, but the Blue Jays need to pull out a win in Carbondale to keep within shouting distance of UNI.
Stanford @ California (FSN/selected Comcast Sportsnet outlets, 5 EST ) - Mike Montgomery looks to beat the Cardinal for the first time during his short tenure in Berkeley.
Mississippi State @ Auburn (FS South/Sun Sports/Full Court, 5 EST) - The Bulldogs' faint at-large hopes mean they can't drop one to a tricky Tiger team.
Texas A&M @ Baylor (FS Southwest/Full Court, 6 EST ) - Elimination game in the Big 12.
Ole Miss @ LSU (FS South/FS Florida/Full Court, 7 EST) - The Bayou Bengals look to repeat their 32-point triumph in Oxford.
UC-Riverside @ Cal State-Northridge (Prime Ticket, 8 EST) - The Matadors lead the Big West at the moment and the surprising Highlanders are two games behind them.
Western Kentucky @ Troy (FCS Pacific, 8;30 EST) - The Hilltoppers are only out of the Friday bracket because their overall record is a game worse than Arkansas-Little Rock's.
Ohio State @ Wisconsin (ESPN, 9 EST) - The Badgers, who had dropped six straight, are now going for their fourth straight win.
St. John's @ Marquette (Big East/CST/TW Milwaukee/MASN/SNY, 9 EST) - The Golden Eagles are looking to stop a two-game slide.
Utah State @ Boise State (local TV in both the Salt Lake and Boise areas, 9 EST) - The Aggies are looking for their 20th straight win.
Wyoming @ San Diego State (the mtn., 10 EST) - The Aztecs try to keep pace with Utah, after failing to sweep the Utes on Wednesday night.
Portland @ St. Mary's (CSN California/CSN Northwest, 10 EST) - The Gaels managed to give Gonzaga a real fight last night, falling 72-70. Can they do better against the Pilots than they did in their first full game against Paddy Mills two weeks ago (an 84-66 loss)?
Gonzaga @ San Francisco (ESPNU, 11 EST) - Bulldogs look to move to 10-0 in the WCC.
Sunday
USF @ Notre Dame (Big East/Altitude/CST/MASN/SNY/Full Court, 2 EST) - Another winnable game for the Irish. If this one was at the Sun Dome, I wouldn't quite be as confident in their chances.
Temple @ Duquesne (CBS CS, 3 EST) - The Owls just clipped St. Joe's on Thursday, while the Dukes followed up their big win against Xavier by losing at Richmond Wednesday night.
Michigan @ Northwestern (Big Ten, 3 EST) - The Wildcats choked one away against Illinois Thursday night. The Wolverines are looking for the season sweep and to break a two-game losing streak.
Duke @ Boston College (FSN/selected Comcast Sportsnet outlets, 5:30 EST) - The Eagles are looking to end a two-game slide, but they can bet the Blue Devils will be in an angry mood after losing Wednesday night.
North Carolina @ Miami (FL) (FSN/selected Comcast Sportsnet outlets, 7:45 EST) - The Hurricanes have been extremely competitive lately, but have only one win to show for their last five outings. The four losses, with two in OT, have been by an average of 4 points
USC@ Arizona State (FSN/selected Comcast Sportsnet outlets, 10 EST) - The Trojans will be in a precarious place if they drop their third straight. The Sun Devils will be looking to avenge a 12-point loss back on January 15.
An 8-Team Playoff Solution
Mario writes his own blog on the topic of craft and home brewing at Brewed For Thought. Today, he is guest blogging with Bracket Dobber for a change of pace and a chance to write about another one of his passions, sports. If you like what he has to say, give his site a visit.
The conference championships have come to an end, and we are left to stare blankly at the BCS Bowl Games and wonder what could be. There has to be a better way. You’re right, and I have a solution.
We all know the word, say it with me, "Playoff." That seems to be a point everyone can agree on. The problem is that there can’t be a playoff that makes everyone happy. Someone will always be left out. So here is my proposal.
- Conference champions only - I realize Texas has a big problem with this, but that would be an issue with the Big 12 and not with the playoff structure. Win your conference and you will be able to claim a right to be the National Champion. This maintains, if not strengthens, the regular season, as it will directly decide who is eligible for the playoffs.
- 8 teams, 6 BCS, 2 At-large "Champions" – We have to play nice with the BCS, they control everything now and they aren’t going anywhere. Keep the 6 BCS conferences involved then leave the remaining 2 spots open to at large conferences. I put champions in quotations for one reason, and one reason only: Notre Dame. Notre Dame is still a powerful school off the field, despite their weak performance on it. Of the Independent teams, the team with the highest rating would be considered champion. How would you determine the highest rating?
- Keep the BCS Rankings – What?! Why keep the heart of the beast beating? It’s a system people have accepted, even if grudgingly. This ranking would only be used to seed teams in the 8 team playoff. Remember, with only conference champions gaining eligibility for the playoff, the heavy lifting won’t be done by this system. Would the AP be willing to replace the Harris poll again? Who knows.
So now that we have a playoff, here’s how it shakes out this year. The teams would be seeded as such: #1 Oklahoma, #2 Florida, #3 USC, #4 Utah, #5 Penn State, #6 Boise St, #7 Cincinnati, #8 Virginia Tech. Notice, while some teams get "left out," the top 8 ranked conference champions all make it (thank you for losing Ball State).
We have the format, we have the teams seeded, now, how do they play? This is important, because the sites are big money, and you have to make sure these bowl committees are happy as well. We will address that shortly, first, we have to complete the First Round.
First Round games will be played as home games for the top ranked teams.
- #8 Virginia Tech @ #1 Oklahoma
- #7 Cincinnati @ #2 Florida
- #6 Boise State @ #3 USC
- #5 Penn State @ #4 Utah
Schools will like this because it gives them an opportunity to host a big money game. BCS power conferences (SEC, Big 12, Pac-10 and Big Ten) will especially support this as in most years, this guarantees them the hosting gig. As you'll notice, Utah actually would have earned a hosting spot this year. This would be great motivation for the at large schools to chase the higher BCS ranking, as well as convince conference that they need to encourage well rounded non-conference schedules to help their conference win the hosting spot. These games can be played the weekend before the Christmas holiday. A Friday Night prime time slot and a full day of college football would provide good slots for ratings and exposure.
After the First Round we move on to New Year's Day. This is where the traditional BCS bowl sites come back. In the first two games, you have the losers bracket from the First Round. While this might not be ideal, a potential Penn State/Virginia Tech or Boise State/Cincinnati match-up isn't much worse than the Virginia Tech/Cincinnati game we're getting in Miami this year. The second set of games would obviously be the winners bracket, with the eventual winners moving on to play a Monday night National Championship Game as we currently have. The Bowls would need to work a rotation, which would only be fair. Given the established National Championship Game rotation, the following cycle would be fair to all teams:
- 2008 - National Championship Game (NCG): Orange Bowl; Winner's Bracket (WB): Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl; Loser's Bracket (LB): Sugar Bowl, Orange Bowl.
- 2009 - NCG: Rose; WB: Fiesta, Sugar; LB: Orange, Rose.
- 2010 - NCG: Fiesta; WB: Sugar, Orange; LB: Rose, Fiesta.
- 2011 - NCG: Sugar; WB: Orange, Rose; LB: Fiesta, Sugar.
There you have it. The BCS could go with this idea because, for the most part, nothing changes for them. They have 5 bowl games (the biggest 5) and play a crucial role during the regular season in the way of deciding the final seeding. Also, this doesn't cut their balls off, and you have to take into account the egos of the people involved. They don't have to make any changes, the contracts are signed. Have some of the First Roud money make it's way back to the BCS and this would be additional encouragement to make it happen.
The BCS Conferences and schools would agree to this for one reason: money. You give them a shot at hosting the First Round and they see nothing but dollar signs. Toss a little something to the visiting team and you're gauranteeing 2 big pay days at the end of the season as opposed to just one New Years game.
The At-large conferences would be happy with this idea because now they actually have a chance. Not just a chance, they could host a big money game. This would appeal to the viewing public because now there's the chance to root for the Cinderella. Utah having to travel to New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl is hard to get excited about, as there's nothing on the line in this all-but-home game for the Tide. If they were to be coming off a win into a New Years Day game, the venue would be less important as fans would likely follow their team for such a big opportunity.
Lastly, why would the bowl committees agree? We all know how hard headed the Rose Bowl can be. Besides the money that would come in, offer an olive branch to each site. If a Big Ten/Pac-10 match-up were to emerge, it would default to the Rose Bowl. Give the Rose, Sugar and Orange bowls first crack at their traditional conferences when hosting winner's bracket games. Allow these games to maintain some sort of tradition, when it fits into the schedule, and that won't be any different than what we have now.
Before anyone adds in their opinion on the fact that Alabama and Texas would be left out, I just have to say that they missed their opportunity by not taking care of business in the regular season. Yes, the season would seem bittersweet, but they had their opportunities. Texas may have been screwed by the Big 12, but that's an issue each conference would have to address, independent of a playoff system. As a fan of the Giants in 1993, I know what it's like to see a team with a claim to being the best eventually be left out of the playoffs. As a fan of the Golden Bears in 2004, I also know what it's like to have a deserving team get shafted by the existing BCS system (and shameless begging by head coaches during post game press conferences). As a fan of that 2004 team, I also know that had they beaten USC, Mack Brown's crocodile tears wouldn't have mattered. Take care of business on the field and you will have nothing to complain about.
An 8-team playoff provides an opportunity for legitimate closure on the College Football season. Non-BCS teams would have an equal shot at the prize in this format which would no doubt encourage greater enthusiasm in the sport. Not only would the BCS see a benefit, the non-BCS affiliated bowls would reap the benefits of some of the elite teams still being available for other bowl games. This is a system which improves the quality of the regular and post season and deserves a serious look by the BCS.
Final Bowl Projections...
Can be found here. Just a few updates and adjustments based on today's results and news that's trickled in.
Updated Bowl Projections
Here are my updated bowl projections, based on invites that have gone out already.
I'm sorry to have been bad about posting of late. I'm still a bit under the weather. I plan on a nice wrap-up post for last week tomorrow.
Bowl and Mock Playoff Projections - December 2
I did these on my very quick trip back to BWI this morning/afternoon. (Thank you Southwest.)
Bowl projections: These were pretty stable for the most part, though I had to figure out where to send Notre Dame. (I settled on Hawai'i.) A couple of schools are probably going to get bumped out thanks to last weekend's result. For example, I project NC State in the Houston Bowl instead of San Jose State. I also sent Buffalo to Mobile, meaning WMU is out of this year's bowl season.
Mock Playoff Projections: I only made two changes to the16-team bracket. Georgia is out as an at-large, replaced by Georgia Tech. Oklahoma replaces Texas as the Big 12 automatic bid.
Mock Playoff Projections and KC Pictures
Here are my mock playoff projections for this week. The only two big changes are Texas Tech being dropped from all projections and BC replacing Maryland as the projected ACC Champion.
I've also posted pictures of my trip to Arrowhead for Bills-Chiefs and of the CBE Classic semifinals (with an emphasis on UF-SU) online. I'll blog more about these experiences when I make it to Florida tomorrow.
Bowl Projections - 23 November 2008
Here are this week's projections. Things are starting to clear up, slightly. The ACC race no longer requires PhDs in thermodynamics and statistics to figure out. However, the Big 12 South race is now a mess thanks to Oklahoma stomping the hell out of TTech last night.
Ranting moment - Mike Lupica is saying USC shouldn't be allowed to play for the BCS title because they won't win their conference. WRONG. If they beat UCLA and Oregon State beats Oregon, they'll be tied at the top of the standings or, in other words, co-champions. The Beavers would go to the Rose Bowl because of a Pac-10 rule.
Clemson saved the ACC yesterday by beating Virginia. They will now be able to fill their contracted bowl spots. Rutgers became bowl-eligible by beating Army, so the Big East is now set. They'll even be able to provide a team to the Motor City Bowl, since the Big Ten won't. Barring miracles over the next two weekends, the Big 12, SEC, and Pac-10 won't fulfill their obligations. The Big Ten has assured that they will not.
Buffalo, San Jose State, and Louisiana Tech fill at-large spots this week. It looks like the Sun Belt will need to step in for the SEC in both the Independence and PapaJohn's.com Bowls.
Mock playoff projections at some point, maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow morning.
Bowl Projections - 16 November
There are quite a few changes in my projections for this week. For starters, the BCS conferences (except for the Big East, surprisingly) have bit off more than they can chew in terms of their bowl obligations for this season. That's right, it's time to get ready for multiple bids for the Sun Belt, including a projected Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Louisiana Tech Independence Bowl! Three BCS conference teams that I had in bowl games last week probably aren't going to make it. Auburn, Colorado, and Illinois each need to win their remaining game to get to six wins. The problem is, each game is on the road against stern opposition. The Tigers have the Iron Bowl, Colorado is at Nebraska, and the Illini head to Evanston to take on Northwestern.
The Motor City Bowl, the Illini's likely destination, has a deal with the Big East to fill an empty Big Ten slot. So, not-yet-eligible Rutgers fills that slot for now. (The Scarlet Knights face Army next week, so it's a safe-bet they get their sixth win next week.) Auburn and Colorado's situations leave the Independence Bowl in a lurch, as both those teams would slot there.
The Hawai'i and Texas Bowls also feature at-large teams this week, with UNLV filling in for the Pac-10 and Fresno State filling in for the Big 12. Florida Atlantic takes advantage of the Sun Belt's backup tie-in with the PapaJohn's Bowl, provided they win one of their last two to get to six wins.
While most league races are fairly straightforward, the ACC race is still mess. This week, I have Boston College in the Orange Bowl, but next week, it very well may be someone different. The Eagles control their own destiny in the Atlantic Division, as they face Maryland to wrap up the season. The same can be said for current division leader Maryland, who hosts FSU next week and goes to Boston on November 29. Miami plays at Georgia Tech Thursday to probably decide the Coastal Division. I say "probably" because I frankly have given up on the ACC and don't want to end up with a headache by spending more time on it.
Oklahoma is still in the #2 slot as I have no faith in the coaches' or Harris pollsters moving Texas ahead of Oklahoma, even though the Longhorns beat the Sooners on a neutral field, if OU beats Texas Tech next Saturday, as I predict.
Mock playoff projections will come sometime after the BCS Standings are released.
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