I apologize for delaying this by almost a week, but real life has been a bit busy, and I wanted to make this field look halfway rational.

I did a bit extra with this projection, however, as I've presented four Opening Round options. Two of these are what everyone expects, while the others are a little more experimental. 

The four fields follow after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

As I was busy writing a reaction piece for SB Nation last night, I didn't get to do a proper post-mortem of my performance. After looking things over, I didn't perform quite as well as last year, particularly in terms of seeding, something I really focused on this year.

I got 33 of 34 at-larges correct, which is one more than I was expecting. Heading into Sunday, I figured this would be a year when the Committee would try to teach teams a lesson in a creative way. Whether they actually did that is up for debate. UTEP over Virginia Tech doesn't seem terrible creative to me. William & Mary in for the Hokies would've made me take notice.

Seeding-wise, the news wasn't so good. I only got 24 of 65 seeds correct. As a perfectionist, I can only say that's terrible. Making matters worse, I didn't get a single seed right between lines 6 and 9. And I only got one 5 and one 10 right. 

I did place 32 teams within one line of their correct seed, which is acceptable, given the Committee has the flexibility to move teams up or down a line to balance the bracket out.

Seven teams were within two lines, and one (Cal) was off by three. I took the Jay Bilas approach when it came to the Golden Bears. I felt their profile sans Pac-10 regular season and tournament crowns was one better suited for the 11 line instead of the 8, even taking the Theo Robertson injury into account.

Here's how I did compared to the last four years.

Correctly Selected At-Large Teams
33 of 34: 2009 and 2010
34 of 34: 2008
32 of 34: 2006 and 2007

Correctly Seeded
24 of 65: 2010
31 of 65: 2009
36 of 65: 2008
23 of 65: 2007
28 of 65: 2006 

Off By One LIne
32 of 65: 2010
22 of 65: 2009 and 2008
25 of 65: 2007
19 of 65: 2006

Off By Two Lines
7 of 65: 2010
9 of 65: 2009
4 of 65: 2008
12 of 65:2007
13 of 65: 2006

Off By Three Or More Lines
1 of 65: 2010
2 of 65: 2009
3 of 65: 2008
4 of 65: 2007
6 of 65: 2006

For more bracketology reaction, check out Andrew Sharp's Bracketology: FAIL and Adam Jacobi's critique of mid-major seeding. 

I'll be back tomorrow with a viewer's guide of sorts.

Editor's note: This bracket is cross-posted at SB Nation.

So, one of the most confusing and convoluted bubble years ever comes to a close. I honestly think I have no chance at getting the final few teams correct, as there isn't enough separation between them.

Click here to see my final projected bracket.

Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.

Mississippi State could have made things much easier had they won the SEC Tournament today. But a DeMarcus Cousins layup at the buzzer forced overtime, where John Wall was sublime. The Bulldogs, in my opinion, needed that win to get in, but the Committee may feel differently. 

Ohio State sewed up a two seed with a win over Minnesota in the Big Ten final. The Gophers are in regardless, but again, the Committee may want to go a different route.

Duke won the ACC, but I doubt that won't be enough to wrest the top one seed from West Virginia.  

Temple won the A-10 Tournament, and I have them solidly as a three seed.

The Rundown

Top Four Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, West Virginia
Last Five In: California, Minnesota, Virginia Tech, Utah State, Florida
First Four Out: UTEP, Illinois, Mississippi State, William & Mary

Conference Breakdown

Big East: 8
Syracuse (1), West Virginia (1), Villanova (2), Georgetown (3), Pittsburgh (4), Marquette (7), Notre Dame (8), Louisville (10)

ACC: 7 
Duke (2), Maryland (5), Clemson (8), Florida State (8),Georgia Tech (9), Wake Forest (10), Virginia Tech (11)

Big 12: 7 
Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (3), Texas A&M (6), Texas (7), Oklahoma State (8), Missouri (9)

Big Ten: 5 
Ohio State (2), Wisconsin (4), Purdue (4), Michigan State (5), Minnesota (12)

MWC: 4 
New Mexico (3), BYU (5), UNLV (9), San Diego State (10)

A-10: 3
Temple (3), Richmond (6), Xavier (7)

SEC: 3
Kentucky (1), Tennessee (4), Vanderbilt (5), Florida (11)

Pac-10: 2
Washington (11), California (11)

WCC: 2
Gonzaga (6), St. Mary's (10)

WAC: 2
Utah State (12), New Mexico State (13)

One Bid Leagues (20): America East (Vermont), Atlantic Sun (ETSU), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West (UC Santa Barbara), Colonial (Old Dominion), Conference USA (Houston), Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American (Ohio), Mid-Eastern (Morgan State), Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa), Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot (Lehigh), Southern (Wofford), Southland (Sam Houston State), Southwestern (Arkansas-Pine Bluff), Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas)

Editor's note: This bracket is cross-posted at SB Nation.

After an eventful Saturday, there are several new protected seeds in my second-to-last projection of the season. Things look to be coming into focus with only four games left in Championship Week.

Click here to see Sunday morning's full bracket.

Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.

Kansas looks to have sewn up the top overall seed, as they grabbed their third victory of the season over Kansas State to claim the Big 12 Tournament crown. Kentucky and Syracuse remain on the top line, and West Virginia staked a claim by winning the Big East Saturday night. Currently, I have the Mountaineers as the final No. 1 instead of Duke.

While the Mountaineers and Blue Devils have similar records against the Top 50, WVU's wins are simply better. WVU owns an 8-5 record against these teams, with victories against No. 7 (twice) Georgetown, No. 9 Texas A&M, No.13 Villanova and No. 15 Pitt. Duke, meanwhile is 7-4, with their best victories coming against No. 22 Maryland and No. 32 Georgia Tech, who they split with. They also lost to the seventh-rated Hoyas. The Blue Devils could take the top spot back with a win over the Yellow Jackets in today's ACC final, but I doubt it.

Below the top line, Tennessee and Vanderbilt may have played themselves out of protected seed range after their losses in the SEC semifinals. Purdue is also in danger after they were demolished by Minnesota in the Big Ten semis. I still have both the Volunteers and Boilermakers on the four line, so they're as protected as two Southern/Midwestern teams forced to play out West can be. Vanderbilt drops to a five, but they're in a pod with Wisconsin in Spokane.

At the other end of the field, Houston stole a bid by beating UTEP for the second time this season, meaning the Miners are squarely on the bubble. Washington also played bid thief by topping Cal in the Pac-10 final. Finally, in the WAC final, New Mexico State beat Utah State for the second time, meaning the Blue Aggies likely took another at-large.

That means teams like Virginia Tech and Florida could be out, especially if Mississippi State beats Kentucky in the SEC championship on Sunday. Illinois looked to be in good shape, but they couldn't close the deal at the end of regulation and the first overtime, before they fell to Ohio State. Then, Minnesota made Purdue look like a bunch of middle schoolers. Not quite the contrast the Illini needed. 

It will indeed be a tense day.

Here's how things stand on Selection Sunday at around noon ET.

The Rundown

Top Four Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, West Virginia
Last Five In: California, Minnesota, Utah State, UTEP, Virginia Tech
First Four Out: Florida, Illinois, Mississippi State, William & Mary

Conference Breakdown

Big East: 8
Syracuse (1), West Virginia (1), Villanova (2), Georgetown (3), Pittsburgh (4), Marquette (7), Notre Dame (8), Louisville (10)

ACC: 7 
Duke (2), Maryland (5), Clemson (7), Florida State (8),Wake Forest (9), Georgia Tech (9), Virginia Tech (11)

Big 12: 7 
Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (3), Texas A&M (6), Texas (7), Oklahoma State (8), Missouri (9)

Big Ten: 5 
Ohio State (2), Wisconsin (4), Purdue (4), Michigan State (5), Minnesota (11)

MWC: 4 
New Mexico (3), BYU (5), UNLV (9), San Diego State (10)

A-10: 3
Temple (3), Richmond (6), Xavier (7)

SEC: 3
Kentucky (1), Tennessee (4), Vanderbilt (5)

C-USA: 2
UTEP (12), Houston (14)

Pac-10: 2
Washington (11), California (11)

WCC: 2
Gonzaga (6), St. Mary's (10)

WAC: 2
Utah State (12), New Mexico State (13)

One Bid Leagues (20): America East (Vermont), Atlantic Sun (ETSU), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West (UC Santa Barbara), Colonial (Old Dominion), Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American (Ohio), Mid-Eastern (Morgan State), Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa), Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot (Lehigh), Southern (Wofford), Southland (Sam Houston State), Southwestern (Arkansas-Pine Bluff), Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas)

For a more detailed breakdown of the teams fighting for the final few spots in the tournament, visit Bubble Watch.

Editor's note: This bracket is cross-posted at SB Nation.

The top 24 teams in Saturday's bracket are the same as they were in Friday's projection.

Click here to see Saturday's full bracket.

Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.

With Georgetown and West Virginia facing off for the Big East crown Saturday, that could change. The Mountaineers can potentially claim a top seed with a win, while Georgetown can grab a protected seed of their own (likely Pitt's 3 seed) with a win.

Syracuse moves up to the third overall number one, as it appears Arinze Onuaku's injury isn't as severe as it appeared on Thursday.

No less than 12 bids will be handed out on Saturday, meaning we'll be ever closer to clarity, especially in the cases of California, Washington, UTEP, Utah State and San Diego State. 

Here's how things stand on Selection Eve.

The Rundown

Top Four Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
Last Four In: San Diego State, Virginia Tech, Washington, Rhode Island
First Four Out: Minnesota, Mississippi State, William & Mary, Mississippi
Next Four Out: Seton Hall, Arizona State, South Florida, UAB

Conference Breakdown

Big East: 8
Syracuse (1), West Virginia (2), Villanova (3), Pittsburgh (3), Georgetown (5), 
Notre Dame (8), Marquette (9), Louisville (10)

ACC: 7 
Duke (1), Maryland (5), Florida State (7), Clemson (8),Wake Forest (10), Georgia Tech (11), Virginia Tech (12)

Big 12: 7 
Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (4), Texas A&M (6), Texas (7), Missouri (9), Oklahoma State (9)

Big Ten: 5 
Purdue (2), Ohio State (3), Michigan State (3), Wisconsin (5), Illinois (12)

A-10: 4
Temple (4), Richmond (6), Xavier (7), Rhode Island (13)

MWC: 4 
New Mexico (3), BYU (5), UNLV (8), San Diego State (12)

SEC: 4
Kentucky (1), Vanderbilt (4), Tennessee (4), Florida (12)

Pac-10: 2
California (8), Washington (11)

WCC: 2
Gonzaga (6), St. Mary's (11)

One Bid Leagues (22): America East, Atlantic Sun (ETSU), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Colonial (Old Dominion), Conference USA, Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa), Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot (Lehigh), Southern (Wofford), Southland, Southwestern, Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas), Western Athletic

For a more detailed breakdown of the teams fighting for the final few spots in the tournament, visit Bubble Watch.

Editor's Note - This is a modification of a post I put up at about this time last year, updated for the 2010 season.

R, P, and I. Probably the three letters that are thrown around the most during the first half of the month of March in the United States. While everyone is familiar with the term RPI, not everyone knows what it is and how much influence it actually has in the selection process for the NCAA men's basketball tournament. In this post, I'm going to show you how using the RPI alone would give the committee an inaccurate picture of the national landscape and would result in a radically different tournament field than a more balanced selection process would ensure. To do this, I'm going to compare the bracket I released Friday morning with one based solely on the RPI after Thursday night's games (based on info from StatSheet.com).

After the jump, I'll talk a bit more about this unique projection.

Continue reading this post »

Editor's note: This bracket is cross-posted at SB Nation.

Thanks to an overwhelming number of games Thursday and a good amount of time spent reviewing seeding, particularly in the middle of the bracket, this bracket looks significantly different from Thursday's version.

Click here to see Friday's full bracket.

Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.

On the top line, there's one minor change. Syracuse drops down to the fourth overall number one seed after their loss to Georgetown in the Big East quarterfinals and Arinze Onuaku's knee/quad injury. Even with that setback, the Orange aren't likely to fall to the two line, especially as West Virginia's best shot at a high RPI win on the way to a Big East tournament crown would be against Georgetown in the final. With the way this tournament's unfolded so far, that's not a result to bank on.

Ohio State jumped back up to the two line without playing a game, as New Mexico struggled to beat lowly Air Force in their Mountain West semifinal. The Buckeyes begin Big Ten tournament play Friday against archrival Michigan in the quarterfinals.

In the middle of the bracket, there was a good amount of shuffling. Teams like Richmond, Marquette, Florida State, Florida and California shifted up, while others, including Xavier, Northern Iowa, Oklahoma State, Louisville and Wake Forest dropped.

There was one at-large change after Thursday's action, as Arizona State dropped out after losing to Stanford in the Pac-10 quarterfinals. Washington, who came back to beat Oregon State in the very next game, replaces them. 

Here's how things stand with three days remaining.

The Rundown

Top Four Seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, Syracuse
Last Four In: Illinois, Mississippi, Washington, San Diego State
First Four Out: Rhode Island, Dayton, Mississippi State, William & Mary
Next Four Out: Arizona State, Seton Hall, South Florida, UAB

Conference Breakdown

Big East: 8
Syracuse (1), West Virginia (2), Villanova (3), Pittsburgh (3), Georgetown (5), Marquette (7), 
Notre Dame (9), Louisville (9)

ACC: 7 
Duke (1), Maryland (5), Florida State (7), Clemson (7), Virginia Tech (8), Wake Forest (11), Georgia Tech (12)

Big 12: 7 
Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (5), Texas A&M (6), Texas (9), Missouri (10), Oklahoma State (10)

Big Ten: 5 
Purdue (2), Ohio State (3), Michigan State (3), Wisconsin (4), Illinois (12)

MWC: 4 
New Mexico (2), BYU (5), UNLV (8), San Diego State (13)

SEC: 4
Kentucky (1), Vanderbilt (4), Tennessee (4), Florida (10), Mississippi (12)

A-10: 3
Temple (4), Richmond (6), Xavier (7)

Pac-10: 2
California (9), Washington (12)

WCC: 2
Gonzaga (6), St. Mary's (11)

One Bid Leagues (22): America East, Atlantic Sun (ETSU), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Colonial (Old Dominion), Conference USA, Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa), Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot, Southern (Wofford), Southland, Southwestern, Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas), Western Athletic

For a more detailed breakdown of the teams fighting for the final few spots in the tournament, visit Bubble Watch.

Editor's note: This bracket is cross-posted at SB Nation.

Conference tournament action will be well underway on Thursday, as every major conference (except for the Atlantic 10) will be in action. Therefore, expect to see things shuffle a little more between Friday and Sunday.

As for this projection, the biggest changes from Wednesday's bracket took place at the bottom of the at-large pool, where Seton Hall and South Florida fell out after unimpressive losses in the second round of the Big East Tournament. Their replacements were both idle Wednesday. Arizona State faces Stanford in  a Pac-10 quarterfinal Thursday, while Ole Miss plays in the SEC quarterfinals Friday.

Click here to see Thursday's full bracket.

Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.

The  field breaks down in this way with four days left in the race for bids.

The Rundown

Top Four Seeds: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke
Last Four In: Illinois, Mississippi, Arizona State, San Diego State
First Four Out: Rhode Island, Washington, Dayton, UAB
Next Four Out: Memphis, Mississippi State, South Florida, Seton Hall

Conference Breakdown

Big East: 8
Syracuse (1), West Virginia (2), Villanova (3), Pittsburgh (3), Georgetown (6), Louisville (8), 
Notre Dame (9), Marquette (9), 

ACC: 7 
Duke (1), Maryland (5), Clemson (7), Virginia Tech (8), Florida State (10), Wake Forest (10), Georgia Tech (11)

Big 12: 7 
Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (5), Texas A&M (6), Oklahoma State (7), Texas (9), Missouri (10)

Big Ten: 5 
Purdue (2), Ohio State (3), Michigan State (3), Wisconsin (4), Illinois (12)

MWC: 4 
New Mexico (2), BYU (5), UNLV (8), San Diego State (13)

SEC: 4
Kentucky (1), Vanderbilt (4), Tennessee (4), Florida (11), Mississippi (12)

A-10: 3
Temple (4), Xavier (6), Richmond (7)

Pac-10: 2
California (12), Arizona State (12)

WCC: 2
Gonzaga (6), St. Mary's (10)

One Bid Leagues (22): America East, Atlantic Sun (ETSU), Big Sky (Montana), Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Colonial (Old Dominion), Conference USA, Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa), Northeast (Robert Morris), Ohio Valley (Murray State), Patriot, Southern (Wofford), Southland, Southwestern, Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas), Western Athletic

For a more detailed breakdown of the teams fighting for the final few spots in the tournament, visit Bubble Watch.