bracket projections
Bracketology Update: No At-Large Changes...Yet
by Chris Dobbertean on Mar 10, 2010 9:00 AM EST
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Editor's note: This bracket is cross-posted at SB Nation.
Since the major conference tournaments (other than the Big East) are really getting underway Wednesday, I've updated this bracket to reflect the results of Monday and Tuesday's limited slate.
The biggest change is that Gonzaga drops down a line after their loss to St. Mary's in Monday's West Coast final. Butler moves up to the five line to replace them after their dominating Horizon League championship win Tuesday.
Since Seton Hall and South Florida both won their Big East tournament openers, and there weren't any major shocks in the early conference finals, the at-large pool remains the same as it did in Monday's bracket.
I'll have a more complete update on Thursday after the Big 12 opening round and Big East second round.
Click here to see Wednesday's full bracket.
Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.
Here's a look at how the field breaks down with five days left.
The Rundown
Top Four Seeds: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke
Last Four In: Seton Hall, San Diego State, South Florida, Illinois
First Four Out: Mississippi, Arizona State, Washington, Dayton
Next Four Out: UAB, Memphis, Rhode Island, Mississippi State
Conference Breakdown
Big East: 10
Syracuse (1), West Virginia (2), Villanova (2), Pittsburgh (3), Georgetown (6), Louisville (8), Marquette (10),
Notre Dame (10), Seton Hall (12), South Florida (12)
ACC: 7
Duke (1), Maryland (5), Florida State (7), Virginia Tech (8), Clemson (9), Wake Forest (10), Georgia Tech (11)
Big 12: 7
Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (5), Texas A&M (6), Missouri (7), Oklahoma State (7), Texas (9)
Big Ten: 5
Purdue (2), Ohio State (3), Michigan State (3), Wisconsin (4), Illinois (12)
MWC: 4
New Mexico (2), BYU (5), UNLV (9), San Diego State (12)
SEC: 4
Kentucky (1), Vanderbilt (4), Tennessee (4), Florida (11)
A-10: 3
Temple (4), Xavier (6), Richmond (7)
WCC: 2
Gonzaga (6), St. Mary's (10)
One Bid Leagues (23): America East, Atlantic Sun (ETSU), Big Sky, Big South (Winthrop), Big West, Colonial (Old Dominion), Conference USA, Horizon (Butler), Ivy (Cornell), Metro Atlantic (Siena), Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley (Northern Iowa), Northeast, Ohio Valley (Murray State), Pacific-10, Patriot, Southern (Wofford), Southland, Southwestern, Summit (Oakland), Sun Belt (North Texas), Western Athletic
For a more detailed breakdown of the teams fighting for the final few spots in the tournament, visit Bubble Watch.
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Bracketology: Duke Back On Top Line; Ten Big East Teams In With Six Days Left In The Race
by Chris Dobbertean on Mar 8, 2010 12:00 PM EST
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This bracket is cross-posted at SB Nation.
Selection Sunday is six days away. Hopefully in that time, there will be some clarity regarding the teams at the bottom of the at-large pool. You know, the ones I've been tracking over on Bubble Watch.
It's become increasingly difficult and frustrating to try to separate the last 12 or so teams fighting for the final five or six spots. Would you have thought, just one week ago, that teams like Arizona State, Memphis and Washington would seriously be in the hunt for an at-large?
While I may not take their chances as seriously as some (especially in the case of the Tigers), they all have a chance over the next few days to get in, either by winning their conference tournaments or by winning enough games to pass the teams who are sure to fall simultaneously.
But for the moment, I have 10 Big East teams in Monday's projection.
Click here to see Monday's full bracket.
Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.
Why? (Especially since I had Ole Miss as the last team in for my Sunday Bubble Watch update.) Well, the Pirates have more wins over teams in this projection than USF or Mississippi do. The Rebels have a better road/neutral mark than both, and the Bulls have more top 50 wins. In this case, I knock Ole Miss down a peg because of the weakness of the SEC West. All nine of their conference wins came against teams that are fighting for NIT spots at best, with several of those being closer than necessary.
Of course, all three teams will have to win some games in their conference tournaments this week to get closer to the real bracket.
Here's a look at how the field breaks down with less than a week to go.
The Rundown
Top Four Seeds: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke
Last Four In: Seton Hall, San Diego State, South Florida, Illinois
First Four Out: Mississippi, Arizona State, Washington, Dayton
Next Four Out: UAB, Connecticut, Memphis, Rhode Island
Conference Breakdown
Big East: 10
Syracuse (1), West Virginia (2), Villanova (2), Pittsburgh (3), Georgetown (6), Louisville (8), Marquette (9),
Notre Dame (10), Seton Hall (12), South Florida (12)
ACC: 7
Duke (1), Maryland (5), Florida State (7), Virginia Tech (8), Clemson (9), Wake Forest (10), Georgia Tech (11)
Big 12: 7
Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (5), Texas A&M (6), Missouri (7), Oklahoma State (7), Texas (9)
Big Ten: 5
Purdue (2), Ohio State (3), Michigan State (3), Wisconsin (4), Illinois (12)
MWC: 4
New Mexico (2), BYU (5), UNLV (9), San Diego State (12)
SEC: 4
Kentucky (1), Vanderbilt (4), Tennessee (4), Florida (11)
A-10: 3
Temple (4), Xavier (6), Richmond (7)
WCC: 2
Gonzaga (5), St. Mary's (11)
One Bid Leagues (23): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Conference USA, Horizon, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Pacific-10, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, Sun Belt, Western Athletic
After the jump, I'll take a look at some of the stories to watch for this final week.
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Bracketology: The Last One Seed Is Up For Grabs
by Chris Dobbertean on Mar 6, 2010 7:52 AM EST
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This bracket is cross-posted at SB Nation.
As Selection Sunday is just more than a week away, we've officially entered the homestretch, so bracket updates will be happening a bit more frequently. My next projection will come Monday morning (change: just a Bubble Watch Sunday), and it will reflect the weekend's conference championship games and all of the other action going on across the country, as the major conferences close out their regular seasons.
Click here to see Saturday's full bracket.
Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.
The biggest change in this projection is Kansas State's rise to take the top seed in the West region away from Duke. Both lost tough road tests on Wednesday -- the Wildcats to Kansas, top seed in the Midwest, and the Blue Devils to Maryland. It's very close between the two teams, but K-State has the advantage for the moment because they have a slightly better road/neutral mark (10-3 vs. 9-5), they fell to a higher quality opponent in their most recent setback and they don't have a loss against a team outside of the RPI Top 100, something the Blue Devils have, thanks to a road loss at N.C. State.
Expect Ohio State and Villanova to challenge Duke and Kansas State for the fourth top seed as conference tournaments play out late next week.
Syracuse remains top seed in the South, while Kentucky holds the one spot in the East.
Here's a look at who's in and out heading into the weekend. Congratulations go out to Cornell, who became the first team to book a place in the field of 65. The Big Red claimed the Ivy crown in resounding fashion Friday night, crushing Brown, 95-76, in Providence.
The Rundown
Top Four Seeds: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Kansas State
Last Four In: Florida, Rhode Island, San Diego State, UAB
First Four Out: Mississippi State, Mississippi, South Florida, Connecticut
Next Four Out: Dayton, Arizona State, Washington, Memphis
Conference Breakdown
Big East: 8
Syracuse (1), Villanova (2), West Virginia (3), Pittsburgh (3), Georgetown (7), Marquette (8), Louisville (9),
Notre Dame (12)
ACC: 7
Duke (2), Maryland (5), Clemson (7), Florida State (8), Georgia Tech (9), Wake Forest (10), Virginia Tech (10)
Big 12: 7
Kansas (1), Kansas State (1), Baylor (6), Texas (6), Texas A&M (6), Missouri (7), Oklahoma State (8)
Big Ten: 5
Purdue (2), Ohio State (2), Michigan State (4), Wisconsin (5), Illinois (11)
A-10: 4
Temple (4), Xavier (6), Richmond (7), Rhode Island (12)
MWC: 4
New Mexico (3), BYU (4), UNLV (9), San Diego State (12)
SEC: 4
Kentucky (1), Vanderbilt (3), Tennessee (5), Florida (11)
C-USA: 2
UTEP (10), UAB (13)
WCC: 2
Gonzaga (4), St. Mary's (11)
One Bid Leagues (22): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Horizon, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Pacific-10, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, Sun Belt, Western Athletic
Visit Bubble Watch for a detailed look at the last few teams in and the group that hopes to replace them, along with game previews and recaps.
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Bracketology: Duke Remains A One Seed; Notre Dame And San Diego State In
by Chris Dobbertean on Mar 1, 2010 12:01 PM EST
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This bracket is cross-posted at SB Nation.
Welcome to March! I hope you're as excited about what's to come over the next month or so as I am. I believe we're in for one of the most interesting NCAA Tournaments ever, and that will start with the selection and seeding process, which is sure to cause even more arguments than usual.
There aren't a lot of changes between this bracket and the one I posted on Saturday after a weekend filled with some very exciting games (Maryland-Virginia Tech, Louisville-UConn, Richmond-Xavier) and some not so great ones (Michigan State-Purdue and Clemson-Florida State).
Click here to see Monday's full bracket.
Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.
On Saturday, I moved Duke up to the top line. They remain after a Sunday when they handled Virginia in Charlottesville and Purdue struggled without Robbie Hummel in losing to Michigan State.
The Blue Devils, No. 1 in the West, join Kansas (Midwest), Syracuse (South) and Kentucky (East) on the top line. Purdue (Midwest), meanwhile stays on line 2, alongside Kansas State (South), Villanova (East) and West Virginia (West).
Nine Big East are in the field at the moment, thanks to Notre Dame's surge this week. After winning at UConn Sunday, Louisville is in better position, but the Huskies remain in because of the overall weakness of the bubble. That could change this week, as Jim Calhoun's team closes with two road games against teams who still have a chance, at Notre Dame and USF,
After the jump, I'll recap who's in and out and look at more of this week's storylines.
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Saturday Bracketology: Duke Jumps To The Top Line
by Chris Dobbertean on Feb 27, 2010 8:44 AM EST
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This bracket is cross-posted at SB Nation.
As Selection Sunday is now a little more than two weeks away, it's time to start putting out brackets a bit more frequently. My next projection will come Monday, and I'll continue on the Saturday/Monday schedule for one more week.
During Championship Week, I'll post a new bracket on Tuesday and Wednesday if necessary to reflect conference title games. Starting Thursday, I'll go daily (or more frequently, if events warrant) until I post my final projection at around 5 p.m. ET on Selection Sunday.
As for this bracket, there are two big changes. Duke replaces Purdue on the top line for the moment. If the Boilermakers can beat Michigan State without Robbie Hummel (Sunday, 4 p.m. ET, CBS) they'll move back up, provided Villanova doesn't stun Syracuse at the Carrier Dome (Saturday, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN) later in the evening.
The other change is that San Diego State is out after their loss to BYU Wednesday. The Aztecs are the first team out, certainly not dead, but they need to make some noise at the Mountain West Tournament to get back. Charlotte replaces them, though at this point, I could have drawn any one of four names from a hat to fill that final spot.
It's a safe bet that a completely different team will be the final at-large on Monday.
Click here to see the full bracket.
Here are links to my seed list and tracking spreadsheet.
The Rundown
Top Four Seeds: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke
Last Four In: Rhode Island, Oklahoma State, UAB, Charlotte
First Four Out: San Diego State, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Arizona State
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Mississippi, Washington, Dayton
Conference Breakdown
Big East: 8
Syracuse (1), Villanova (2), West Virginia (3), Georgetown (3), Pittsburgh (4), Louisville (9),
Marquette (9), Connecticut (10)
ACC: 7
Duke (1), Wake Forest (6), Maryland (7), Clemson (8), Florida State (8), Georgia Tech (8), Virginia Tech (10)
Big 12: 7
Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Baylor (5), Missouri (6), Texas (6), Texas A&M (7), Oklahoma State (12)
A-10: 5
Temple (5), Richmond (6), Xavier (7), Rhode Island (11), Charlotte (13)
Big Ten: 5
Purdue (2), Ohio State (3), Michigan State (4), Wisconsin (4), Illinois (9)
SEC: 4
Kentucky (1), Vanderbilt (4), Tennessee (8), Florida (10)
MWC: 3
New Mexico (3), BYU (3), UNLV (7)
C-USA: 2
UTEP (11), UAB (12)
WCC: 2
Gonzaga (5), St. Mary's (10)
One Bid Leagues (22): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Horizon, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Pacific-10, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, Sun Belt, Western Athletic
Visit Bubble Watch for a detailed look at the last few teams in and the group that hopes to replace them, along with game previews and recaps.
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Bracketology: Purdue Rises To The Top Line And UConn Is Just Back In
by Chris Dobbertean on Feb 22, 2010 12:00 PM EST
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Editor's Note: This bracket is cross-posted at SB Nation.
With less than three weeks left before Selection Sunday, we have a new leader in the race for the final number one seed. Purdue, the new boss in the Big Ten, jumps up to replace Villanova, who started the week with a home loss to UConn and ended it with a defeat at Pitt. That win for the Huskies was big, as it helped paved the way for their return to my projection. (But their follow-up win over Rutgers was just as important.)
The Boilermakers, on the other hand, extended their winning streak to nine, thanks to victories over Ohio State and Illinois. Those, combined with Michigan State's struggles, means Purdue leads the Spartans and Buckeyes by a half-game.
Kansas (Midwest), Syracuse (South) and Kentucky (East) return to on the top line with Purdue taking the top spot in the West.
Click here for this week's full bracket.
Here are links to this week's seed list and tracking spreadsheet.
Before I get into some of this week's other storylines, here's a quick look at who is in and out this week.
Teams are listed in S-curve, or selection, order.
The Rundown
Top seeds: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Purdue
Last Four In: UAB, St. Mary's, Connecticut, San Diego State
First Four Out: Marquette, Charlotte, Mississippi State
Next Four Out: Mississippi, Notre Dame, Washington, Arizona State
Conference Breakdown
Big East: 8
Syracuse (1), Villanova (2), West Virginia (2), Georgetown (3), Pittsburgh (4), Louisville (9), Connecticut (11), Marquette (12)
ACC: 7
Duke (2), Wake Forest (6), Georgia Tech (8), Clemson (8), Maryland (8), Virginia Tech (9), Florida State (10)
Big 12: 6
Kansas (1), Kansas State (2), Texas (5), Baylor (6), Texas A&M (6), Missouri (6), Oklahoma State (9)
Big Ten: 5
Purdue (1),
Ohio State (3),
Michigan State (4), Wisconsin (4), Illinois (10)
Atlantic 10: 4
Temple (5), Richmond (7), Xavier (7), Rhode Island (9)
SEC: 4 Kentucky (1), Vanderbilt (4), Tennessee (7), Florida (10)
Mountain West: 4 New Mexico (3), BYU (3), UNLV (7), San Diego State (11)
Conference USA: 2 UAB (11), UTEP (13)
West Coast: 2
Gonzaga (5), St. Mary's (10)
One Bid Leagues: 22
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Horizon, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Pacific-10, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, Sun Belt, Western Athletic
After the jump, I'll take a look at a few more of the main storylines for this bracket.
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Bracketology: The Homestretch Begins
by Chris Dobbertean on Feb 15, 2010 12:00 PM EST
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Editor's Note: This bracket is cross-posted at SB Nation.
Even though we just completed our first football-free weekend of the year, less than one month remains until Selection Sunday. That means the chances for teams to state their cases for inclusion and improve their seeding are running out.
Click here for this week's full bracket.
Here are links to this week's seed list and tracking spreadsheet.
On the top line, the same four teams -- Kansas, Villanova, Kentucky and Syracuse -- are still in place, for the fourth straight week. However, the Wildcats swapped places with the Orange, as 'Nova managed to grab a big road win at West Virginia and beat Providence this week, while Syracuse followed up a close, somewhat controversial win over UConn with a loss to Louisville. That win actually kept the Cardinals in the field, as it gives them a true marquee road win, something many other bubble teams lack, and it offset a bad loss to St. John's on Thursday night.
Before I get into some of this week's other storylines, here's a quick look at who is in and out this week.
Teams are listed in S-curve, or selection, order.
The Rundown
Top seeds: Kansas, Villanova, Kentucky, Syracuse
Last Four In: Marquette, Mississippi State, UAB, Louisville
First Four Out: Dayton, St. Mary's, Florida, San Diego State
Next Four Out: South Florida, Virginia, Arizona State, Northwestern
Conference Breakdown
Big East: 8
Syracuse (1), Villanova (1), Georgetown (2), West Virginia (3), Pittsburgh (6), Cincinnati (9), Marquette (11), Louisville (12)
ACC: 7
Duke (2), Wake Forest (5), Georgia Tech (7), Clemson (8), Maryland (9), Virginia Tech (9), Florida State (10)
Big 12: 6
Kansas (1), Kansas State (3), Texas (4), Baylor (6), Texas A&M (7), Missouri (8), Oklahoma State (11)
Atlantic 10: 5
Temple (4), Xavier (7), Richmond (8), Rhode Island (9), Charlotte (10)
Big Ten: 5
Purdue (2), Wisconsin (2), Michigan State (3), Ohio State (5), Illinois (8)
SEC: 5
Kentucky (1), Tennessee (5), Vanderbilt (6), Mississippi (10), Mississippi State (11)
Mountain West: 3
BYU (3), New Mexico (4), UNLV (6)
Conference USA: 2
UAB (11), UTEP (13)
One Bid Leagues: 23
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Horizon, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Pacific-10, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, Sun Belt, West Coast, Western Athletic
After the jump, I'll take a look at a few more of the main storylines for this bracket.
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Bracketology: Say Goodbye To UConn And UNC, And Hello To... USF?
by Chris Dobbertean on Feb 8, 2010 12:00 PM EST
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Editor's Note: This bracket is cross-posted at SB Nation.
Now that the Super Bowl is over (Congratulations New Orleans!) and football is finished for another year, just five weeks remain until Selection Sunday. That means it's time for more casual college basketball fans to hop on the bandwagon.
For those of you who are just merging onto the road to Indianapolis, welcome. It's been a wild season so far, so don't be surprised to see some unexpected names receive party invites come Selection Sunday, and a few old standbys relegated to the NIT. More on that in a minute, though.
Click here for this week's full bracket.
Here are links to this week's seed list and tracking spreadsheet.
This week, there wasn't much upheaval at the top of the bracket. For the third straight week, the same four teams occupy the top line, even with Villanova's burial by Georgetown's offensive blizzard on Saturday afternoon here in snowbound D.C. The Wildcats are fourth overall and head up the West region, falling behind Kansas (Midwest), Syracuse (South) and Kentucky (East).
In fact, there were only two switches in the top four lines. Purdue moves up to the 2 line to replace Michigan State, who dropped road games to Wisconsin and Illinois this week.
The Badgers made a move of their own, as they jump up to a 3, replacing BYU, who drops down to the 4 line after Saturday's road loss at UNLV.
Even though Texas fell at Oklahoma on Saturday, the Longhorns stay put on line 3, as they still have a stronger overall profile than this week's four seeds, even with their recent struggles.
But as I alluded to at the start of this piece, the big news this week is at the bottom of the at-large pool, where if the season ended Sunday, we would be looking at our first NCAA field without both North Carolina and UConn in recent memory. The Tar Heels followed up last Sunday's home loss to Virginia with two road setbacks, to Virginia Tech by 4 and Maryland by 21, to fall to 13-10 and 2-6 in the ACC. UNC is now just 2-7 since the calendar turned over to 2010, with a home game against Duke next on the schedule.
The Huskies drop out even though they split their two games, losing a bubble battle at Louisville on Monday, then sneaking past DePaul at home on Saturday, to sit at 4-6 in the Big East and 14-9 overall.
Before I get into some of this week's other storylines, here's a quick look at who is in and out this week.
Teams are listed in S-curve, or selection, order.
The Rundown
Top seeds: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Villanova
Last Four In: Illinois, South Florida, Dayton, Virginia Tech
First Four Out: Oklahoma State, VCU, Cincinnati, Old Dominion
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Virginia, Northwestern, Notre Dame
Conference Breakdown
ACC: 7
Duke (2), Wake Forest (5), Georgia Tech (6), Maryland (9), Florida State (10), Clemson (10), Virginia Tech (12)
Big East: 7
Syracuse (1), Villanova (1), West Virginia (2), Georgetown (2), Pittsburgh (7), Louisville (9), South Florida (12)
Big 12: 6
Kansas (1), Texas (3), Kansas State (3), Baylor (6), Texas A&M (7), Missouri (8)
Atlantic 10: 6
Temple (5), Rhode Island (8), Charlotte (9), Xavier (10), Richmond (11), Dayton (12)
Big Ten: 5
Purdue (2), Michigan State (3), Wisconsin (3), Ohio State (5), Illinois (11)
SEC: 5
Kentucky (1), Tennessee (4), Vanderbilt (6), Mississippi (8), Florida (10)
Mountain West: 3
BYU (4), New Mexico (4), UNLV (6)
Conference USA: 2
UAB (9), UTEP (13)
West Coast: 2
Gonzaga (4), St. Mary's (8)
One Bid Leagues: 22
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Horizon, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Pacific-10, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, Sun Belt, Western Athletic
After the jump, I'll take a look at a few more of the main storylines for this bracket.
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