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Bracketology S-Curve For February 6, 2012

Chris_d_profile_tiny by Chris Dobbertean on in bracket projections

As usual, the full bracket is up on SB Nation. There are a lot of changes since Bid Watch on Friday, since I had plenty of time to blow things up and start all over again on Sunday.

Auto bids in bold.

1 seeds 1. Syracuse
 2. Kentucky
 3. Missouri
 4. Ohio State
2 seeds 8. Kansas
 7. Duke
 6. North Carolina
 5. Baylor
3 seeds 9. Michigan State
 10. Georgetown
 11. UNLV
 12. Florida
4 seeds 16. Murray State
 15. Creighton
 14. Louisville
 13. Marquette
5 seeds 17. San Diego State
 18. Wisconsin
 19. Florida State
 20. St. Mary's
6 seeds 24. Mississippi State
 23. Indiana
 22. Temple
 21. Michigan
7 seeds 25. Connecticut
26. Virginia
 27. Vanderbilt
 28. Southern Miss.
8 seeds 32. Kansas State
 31. West Virginia
 30. Gonzaga
 29. Illinois
9 seeds 33. Wichita State
 34. Memphis
 35. Notre Dame
 36. New Mexico
10 seeds 40. Washington
 39. Purdue
 38. Harvard
 37. Iowa State
11 seeds 41. Saint Louis
 42. Minnesota (switched to a 12)
 43. Cincinnati
 44. Alabama
12 seeds 48. Seton Hall
(First Four)		 47. Northwestern
(First Four)		 46. BYU
 45. Colorado State
(switched to an 11)
12-13 seeds 49. Long Beach State
 50. Miami
(First Four)
 51. California
(First Four)		 52. Middle Tenn.
13-14 seeds 56. Oral Roberts
 55. Iona
 54. Cleveland State 53. Davidson
14-15 seeds 57. Akron
 58. Drexel
 59. Nevada
 60. Weber State
15-16 seeds 64. Long Island
 63. Norfolk State
 62. Bucknell
 61. Belmont
16 seeds (First Four)
 65. Stony Brook
 66. UT Arlington
 67. UNC Asheville
 68. Miss. Valley St.
Last Four Out
 69. Xavier
 70. Wyoming
 71. Mississippi
 72. NC State
Next Four Out 73. Dayton
 74. Texas
 75. UCF
 76. Arkansas

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Bracketology S-Curve For February 3, 2012

Chris_d_profile_tiny by Chris Dobbertean on in bracket projections

The first edition of Bid Watch was just posted over at SB Nation. Here's the S-curve that accompanies it.

Auto bids in bold.

1 seeds 1. Syracuse
 2. Kentucky
 3. Baylor
 4. Ohio State
2 seeds 8. North Carolina
 7. Missouri
 6. Kansas
 5. Duke
3 seeds 9. Michigan State
 10. UNLV
 11. Georgetown
 12. Marquette
4 seeds 16. Murray State
 15. Florida
 14. Wisconsin
 13. Creighton
5 seeds 17. Michigan
 18. San Diego State
 19. Virginia
 20. St. Mary's
6 seeds 24. Temple
 23. Vanderbilt
 22. Florida State
 21. Mississippi State
7 seeds 25. Indiana
 26. West Virginia
 27. Illinois
 28. Connecticut
8 seeds 32. Kansas State
 31. Southern Miss.
 30. Gonzaga
 29. Louisville
9 seeds 33. Wichita State
 34. Memphis
 35. Purdue
 36. Seton Hall
10 seeds 40. New Mexico
 39. Harvard
 38. Iowa State
 37. Washington
11 seeds 41. Minnesota
 42. Xavier
 43. Notre Dame
 44. Saint Louis
12 seeds 48. Dayton
(First Four)		 47. Alabama
(First Four)		 46. Cincinnati
 45. Middle Tenn.
12-13 seeds 49. Long Beach State 50. Arkansas
(First Four)
 51. California
(First Four)
 52. La Salle
13-14 seeds 56. Oral Roberts
 55. Iona
 54. Cleveland State 53. Davidson
14-15 seeds 57. Akron
 58. Nevada
 59. Drexel
 60. Weber State
15-16 seeds 64. Long Island
 63. Bucknell
 62. Norfolk State
 61. Belmont
16 seeds (First Four)
 65. Stony Brook
 66. UT Arlington
 67. UNC Asheville
 68. Miss. Valley St.
Last Four Out
 69. BYU
 70. Texas
 71. Northwestern
 72. Mississippi
Next Four Out 73. Colorado State
 74. N.C. State
 75. UCF
 76. Stanford

My next full update will come on Monday. Enjoy the busy weekend of hoops!

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Bracketology S-Curve For January 29, 2012

Chris_d_profile_tiny by Chris Dobbertean on in bracket projections

As usual, I've posted an S-curve as a preview to Monday's full bracket up on SB Nation. My next updated S-curve will come at some point on Friday, either in the morning to go along with the first Bid Watch post of the season, or in the evening.

Auto bids in bold.

1 seeds 1. Syracuse
 2. Kentucky
 3. Baylor
 4. Ohio State
2 seeds 8. North Carolina
 7. Missouri
 6. Kansas
 5. Duke
3 seeds 9. Michigan State
 10. UNLV
 11. Creighton
 12. Georgetown
4 seeds 16. Murray State
 15. Vanderbilt
 14. Wisconsin
 13. Marquette
5 seeds 17. Virginia
 18. San Diego State
 19. Florida
 20. Michigan
6 seeds 24. West Virginia
 23. Temple
 22. Mississippi State
 21. St. Mary's
7 seeds 25. Connecticut
 26. Indiana
 27. Florida State
 28. Louisville
8 seeds 32. Southern Miss.
 31. Kansas State
 30. Gonzaga
 29. Illinois
9 seeds 33. Seton Hall
 34. Wichita State
 35. Purdue
(switched to a 10)
 36. Memphis
10 seeds 40. Alabama
 39. California
 38. Minnesota
 37. New Mexico (switched to a 9)
11 seeds 41. Dayton
 42. Xavier
 43. Cincinnati
 44. Middle Tenn.
12 seeds 48. Colorado State
(First Four)		 47. Saint Louis
(First Four)		 46. Harvard
 45. Notre Dame
12-13 seeds 49. Iowa State
(First Four)		 50. Washington
(First Four)
 51. Long Beach State
 52. Massachusetts
13-14 seeds 56. Akron
 55. Oral Roberts
 54. Cleveland State 53. Davidson
14-15 seeds 57. Iona
 58. Nevada
 59. George Mason
 60. Weber State
15-16 seeds 64. Long Island
 63. Bucknell
 62. Norfolk State
 61. Mercer
16 seeds (First Four)
 65. Stony Brook
 66. UT Arlington
 67. UNC Asheville
 68. Miss. Valley St.
Last Four Out
 69. Oklahoma
 70. Northwestern
 71. BYU
 72. Marshall
Next Four Out 73. Stanford
 74. Mississippi
 75. UCF
 76. Oregon

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UPDATED: How I Determine Regular Season Conference Auto Bids

Chris_d_profile_tiny by Chris Dobbertean on in bracket projections

Since this topic is going to come up in this week's bracket, I figured that I would share with you how I determine who receives each of the 31 automatic bids during a regular season bracket projection.

Before Conference Play

  1. The conference team with the best winning percentage against Division I competition, since games against non-D1 teams are not counted toward a team's profile for selection and seeding.
  2. If two or more teams are tied on winning percentage, the team with the most Division I wins gets the spot.
  3. If two or more teams are still tied, the team with the highest RPI gets in.

During Conference Play

  1. The team with the best conference winning percentage gets in.
  2. If two or more teams are tied on winning percentage, the team with the best record in games against the teams in question gets in.
  3. If two or more teams are still tied, the team with the most conference wins earns the bid.
  4. If two or more teams are still tied, the team with the most overall Division I wins gets the spot.
  5. If two or more teams are still tied, the team with the highest RPI is in.
  6. Once a team clinches its conference's regular season championship (or best record, if the conference has divisions), it will remain in the bracket until it falls in the conference tournament.

Conference Tournament

  1. See item no. 6 above.
  2. If a regular season champion falls before the championship game, the highest remaining seed will hold the automatic bid in the bracket. This rule holds as high seeds fall.
  3. Naturally, the conference tournament winner will appear in the bracket (in bold), once the trophy is awarded.

Hopefully, this will clear up any confusion as to why an unexpected team may be in the field as a conference leader. As the weeks move on and there's more balance in league scheduling, these instances should become even more limited.

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Bracketology S-Curve For January 22, 2012

Chris_d_profile_tiny by Chris Dobbertean on in bracket projections

As tomorrow is a winter Monday that's not a holiday, my full bracket projection will be up on SBNation.com at some point in the morning. To whet your appetite in the meantime, here's the S-curve.

Auto bids in bold.

1 seeds 1. Syracuse
 2. Kentucky
 3. Ohio State
 4. Kansas
2 seeds 8. North Carolina
 7. Baylor
 6. Missouri
 5. Duke
3 seeds 9. Michigan State
 10. UNLV
 11. Georgetown
 12. Seton Hall
4 seeds 16. West Virginia
 15. Murray State
 14. Indiana
 13. Creighton
5 seeds 17. Virginia
 18. Connecticut
 19. Illinois
 20. Vanderbilt
6 seeds 24. Marquette
 23. Michigan
 22. San Diego State
 21. St. Mary's
7 seeds 25. Kansas State
 26. Mississippi State
 27. Florida
 28. Wisconsin
8 seeds 32. Gonzaga
 31. Cincinnati
 30. Alabama
 29. Dayton
9 seeds 33. Florida State
 34. Louisville
 35. Temple
 36. Wichita State
10 seeds 40. Xavier
 39. Memphis
 38. Purdue
 37. California
11 seeds 41. UCF
 42. Marshall
 43. Davidson
 44. Saint Louis
12 seeds 48. Minnesota
 47. Middle Tenn.
 46. Southern Miss.
 45. Long Beach State
12-13 seeds 49. Cleveland State
 50. Notre Dame
 51. Marshall
(First Four)
 52. Oklahoma
(First Four)
13-14 seeds 56. Oral Roberts
 55. Iona
 54. Oregon
(First Four)		 53. New Mexico
(First Four)
14-15 seeds 57. George Mason
 58. Nevada
 59. Weber State
 60. Ball State
15-16 seeds 64. Long Island
 63. Bucknell
 62. Norfolk State
 61. Mercer
16 seeds (First Four)
 65. Stony Brook
 66. UT Arlington
 67. UNC Asheville
 68. Miss. Valley St.
Last Four Out
 69. Northwestern
 70. Arkansas
 71. N.C. State
 72. BYU
Next Four Out 73. Rutgers
 74. Stanford
 75. USF
 76. Iowa State

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Bracketology S-Curve For January 17, 2012

Chris_d_profile_tiny by Chris Dobbertean on in bracket projections

Trying this again...

My full bracket for this week will be is up at SB Nation later this morning. Here's how my S-curve looks for it. There have been a trio of changes from Sunday night because of Monday's action. Stony Brook is back in as the America East rep, thanks to Albany's loss at Boston U. And, more significantly, Kansas' win over Baylor sees the Jayhawks jump Missouri for the final spot on the 2 line, thanks to a stronger overall schedule, while Kentucky jumps back ahead of the Bears on the top line.

Auto bids in bold.

1 seeds 1. Syracuse
 2. Kentucky
 3. Baylor
 4. Ohio State
2 seeds 8. Kansas
 7. Duke
 6. Michigan State
 5. North Carolina
3 seeds 9. Missouri
 10. Georgetown
 11. Connecticut
 12. Indiana
4 seeds 16. Virginia
 15. UNLV
 14. Seton Hall
 13. Illinois
5 seeds 17. West Virginia
 18. Michigan
 19. Creighton
 20. Vanderbilt
6 seeds 24. St. Mary's
 23. Marquette
 22. Kansas State
 21. Murray State
7 seeds 25. Mississippi State
 26. Alabama
 27. Louisville
 28. Florida
8 seeds 32. Gonzaga
 31. San Diego State
 30. Wisconsin
 29. Dayton
9 seeds 33. Stanford
 34. Xavier
 35. Cincinnati
 36. Purdue
10 seeds 40. New Mexico
 39. Temple
 38. Memphis
 37. Wichita State
11 seeds 41. Long Beach State
 42. Marshall (switched to a 12)
 43. Saint Louis
 44. Northwestern
12 seeds 48. Southern Miss.
(First Four)		 47. Harvard
(switched into Second Round as a 12 seed)
 46. California
(switched into First Four as an 11 seed)
45. Iona
12-13 seeds 49. Florida State
(First Four)		 50. UCF
(in the First Four as an 11 seed)		 51. Massachusetts
 52. Davidson
13-14 seeds 56. Akron
 55. Belmont
 54. Middle Tenn.
 53. Oral Roberts
14-15 seeds 57. Milwaukee
 58. Nevada
 59. Weber State
 60. Norfolk State
15-16 seeds 64. Long Island
 63. Penn
 62. Georgia State
 61. Bucknell
16 seeds (First Four)
 65. Stony Brook
 66. UT Arlington
 67. UNC Asheville
 68. Miss. Valley St.
Last Four Out
 69. BYU
 70. Oklahoma
 71. N.C. State
 72. Texas
Next Four Out 73. Minnesota
 74. Rutgers
 75. St. Joseph's
 76. Arkansas

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Bracketology S-Curve For January 15, 2011

Chris_d_profile_tiny by Chris Dobbertean on in bracket projections

As a preview to tomorrow's Tuesday's (delayed a day because no one is online today because of the holiday I don't have off myself) full bracket on SBNation.com, here's a look at how my S-curve looks heading into Monday, January 16th. I'll be posting these the night before bracket updates for the rest of the regular season, and I'll probably post some updates during the weeks ahead as well.

Auto bids in bold.

S-CURVE
1 seeds 1. Syracuse
 2. Baylor
 3. Kentucky
 4. Ohio State
2 seeds 8. Missouri
 7. Duke
 6. Michigan State
 5. North Carolina
3 seeds 9. Kansas
 10. Georgetown
 11. Connecticut
 12. Indiana
4 seeds 16. Virginia
 15. UNLV
 14. Seton Hall
 13. Illinois
5 seeds 17. West Virginia
 18. Michigan
 19. Creighton
 20. Vanderbilt
6 seeds 24. St. Mary's
 23. Marquette
 22. Kansas State
 21. Murray State
7 seeds 25. Mississippi State
 26. Alabama
 27. Louisville
 28. Florida
8 seeds 32. Gonzaga
 31. San Diego State
 30. Wisconsin
 29. Dayton
9 seeds 33. Stanford
 34. Xavier
 35. Cincinnati
 36. Purdue
10 seeds 40. New Mexico
 39. Temple
 38. Memphis
 37. Wichita State
11 seeds 41. Long Beach State
 42. Marshall (switched to a 12)
 43. Saint Louis
 44. Northwestern
12 seeds 48. Southern Miss.
(First Four)		 47. Harvard
(switched into Second Round as a 12 seed)
 46. California
(switched into First Four as an 11 seed)
45. Iona
12-13 seeds 49. Florida State
(First Four)		 50. UCF
(in the First Four as an 11 seed)		 51. Massachusetts
 52. Davidson
13-14 seeds 56. Akron
 55. Belmont
 54. Middle Tenn.
 53. Oral Roberts
14-15 seeds 57. Milwaukee
 58. Nevada
 59. Weber State
 60. Norfolk State
15-16 seeds 64. Long Island
 63. Penn
 62. Georgia State
 61. Bucknell
16 seeds (First Four)
 65. Albany
 66. UT Arlington
 67. UNC Asheville
 68. Miss. Valley St.
Last Four Out
 69. BYU
 70. Oklahoma
 71. N.C. State
 72. Texas
Next Four Out 73. Minnesota
 74. Notre Dame
 75. St. Joseph's
 76. Arkansas

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Bracketology: Final S-Curve And Bracket For 2011

Chris_d_profile_tiny by Chris Dobbertean on in bracket projections

Here's my final S-curve and bracket for the season. Head over to SB Nation for a quick discussion of my final changes.

Teams in bold have clinched their respective league's automatic bid. Conference leaders/champions are denoted by an asterisk.

1 line 1. Ohio State*
 2. Kansas*
3. Duke* 4. Pittsburgh
2 line 8. Connecticut*
7. Texas 6. San Diego State*
 5. Notre Dame
3 line 9. Florida
 10. North Carolina 11. Syracuse
 12. BYU
4 line 16. Wisconsin
 15. Louisville
 14. Purdue 13. Kentucky*
5 line 17. St. John's
 18. Vanderbilt
 19. Arizona
 20. West Virginia
6 line 24. Cincinnati
 23. Texas A&M
 22. Xavier 21. Georgetown
7 line 25. Kansas State
 26. Old Dominion* 27. Temple
 28. Washington*
8 line 32. Missouri 31. George Mason 30. Florida State
 29. UNLV
9 line 33. Tennessee 34. Utah State*  35. Marquette 36. Villanova
10 line 40. Michigan 39. UCLA
 38. Butler*
37. Gonzaga*
11 line 41. Richmond*
 42. Penn State
 43. Michigan State
 44. Illinois
12 line 48. Georgia
(First Four)		 47. Virginia Tech
(First Four)		 46. Colorado
 45. Memphis*
13 line 49. USC
(First Four)
 50. St. Mary's
(First Four)		 51. Belmont*
(13 seeds begin)
 52. Princeton*
14 line 56. Morehead State* 55. Bucknell*
(14 seeds begin)
 54. Indiana State*
 53. Oakland*
15 line 57. Wofford* 58. Long Island*
 59. St. Peter's*
(15 seeds begin)
 60. Akron*
16 line 64. Boston University*  63. UC Santa Barbara*
(16 seeds begin)
 62. Hampton* 61. Northern Colorado*
17 line
(First Four)
 65. UNC Asheville*  66. Arkansas-Little Rock* 67. UT San Antonio*
 68. Alabama State*
First Four Out
 69. Clemson
 70. Boston College
 71. Harvard 72. Alabama
Next Two Out

74. UAB 73. VCU

 

The full bracket is after the jump. Check out Sunday morning's version for comparison.

Continue reading this post »

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