2011 NCAA Tournament
NCAA Tournament Open Thread: The National Championship Game
Tonight, the season ends, with perhaps the most unexpected championship game matchup in the NCAA Tournament's modern era. The Southeast champion Butler Bulldogs return to the final for the second consecutive season, an unexpected repeat visitor. Since dropping three in a row to fall to 14-9 overall and 6-5 in the Horizon League, the Bulldogs have won 14 in a row. Their opponent tonight, the West champ Connecticut Huskies, are nearly as scorching. Jim Calhoun's team has won 10 games in a row, all in elimination situations. In fact, with their early Maui triumph taken into account, UConn is 13-0 in tournament games this season.
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National Championship Game SE No. 8 Butler Bulldogs vs. W No.3 Connecticut Huskies |
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My Pick: KenPom.com projects a 69-65 UConn win over 63 possessions. While I agree with the general margin and pace his model produces, I'm picking the opposite result. If the Bulldogs' can keep up their physicality on defense, they may be able to rattle the Huskies. The other key is, naturally, to keep the ball out of Kemba Walker's hands, particularly late. As I've said before, Brad Stevens' team just seems to be on a mission. I don't think they'll be denied for a second straight time.
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NCAA Tournament Open Thread: The National Semifinals
After a little more than five days of hype, the Final Four has finally arrived, with the biggest contrast between National Semifinals ever on offer. Game one features two talented mid-majors who are hoping to upset the established college basketball order, while the nightcap features a true blueblood facing off with a team that is close to that class.
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National Semifinal No. 1 SW No. 11 VCU Rams vs. SE No. 8 Butler Bulldogs |
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My Pick: How do you pick a winner between two teams who seemingly refuse to lose on this stage? VCU has gotten here against all odds, starting on Selection Sunday, when plenty of dopes like me questioned their very selection. The Rams have responded to every punch, showing little weakness over the past two weekends. Butler didn't need to worry about getting in, thanks to a Horizon League Tournament crown, but the Bulldogs would have likely been sweating bullets on March 13th had they not won the auto bid. No matter, as they've now won nine NCAA games in the past two years. I think that experience will be key in a matchup of two relatively even teams. KenPom.com projects a 69-68 Butler win, over 63 possessions. I'll go with that margin and victor. (In other words, expect the Rams to be playing for the title on Monday night.)
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National Semifinal No. 2 E No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats vs. W No. 3 Connecticut Huskies |
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My Pick: For the second game in a row, Kentucky faces a team it lost to in the regular season. UConn, naturally powered by Kemba Walker, routed the Wildcats in the Maui Invitational final back on November 24th. If that seems like light years ago, that's because it is in basketball terms. (Though the weather here in DC has been roughly the same this week as it was then.) Both teams have really grown late in the season, a fact that's reflected in their current win streaks--10 for the Wildcats and 9 for the Huskies. Again, this is another evenly matched contest, thanks to the amount of talent on both sides of the court. However, I think Kentucky has a bit more, so they should top Connecticut in this one. KenPom.com's projection is UK 70-68, over 64 possessions, which seems fairly accurate.
If both of those projections are right tonight, we're in for a truly great evening of basketball.
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Samsung Fan Poll Results: Who Do SB Nation Readers Want To See Win It All
The 2011 Final Four is one of contrasts: Mid-major vs. powerhouse; rising star coaches vs. established veterans; under the radar vs. in your face; quiet vs. controversy. The most telling of these is that two of the more disliked programs in the country will meet in one semifinal, while the other will feature two teams who are trying to shed the cutesy "Cinderella" label.
Saturday's first game features two surprise teams, Southwest champion and 11 seed VCU and Southeast champion Butler, that region's No. 8 seed. The Rams have already won five NCAA games, thanks to their victory over USC in the First Four in Dayton. After reaching the main draw, Shaka Smart's team has won four more games over major conference foes, with only a regional semifinal triumph over Florida State coming by less than double digits. On the other hand, Butler Bulldogs got in thanks to a Horizon League Tournament title, and they've played a series of tense contests. The Bulldogs needed a Matt Howard buzzer-beater to defeat Old Dominion in the First Second Round, then they advanced out of Washington thanks to a controversy-filled win over Pittsburgh. In New Orleans, Brad Stevens' team shut down Wisconsin late, needing overtime to top Florida to make it this far. You may be tempted to call this game the undercard, but given the sheer amount of fight in each of these teams, that would be a serious mistake. Both Butler and VCU will have a serious shot on Monday, thanks to the talent they have on the court and the tests they've already faced.
The second semifinal features two names that you would expect to see in a Final Four, represented by two teams who are late surprises, the East champion Kentucky, the No. 4 seed in that region, and the West's standard-bearer Connecticut, the three seed. The Wildcats are riding a 10-game winning streak, which includes an SEC Tournament title and NCAA wins over Princeton, West Virginia, and the top two seeds in the East, Ohio State and North Carolina. Meanwhile, the Huskies have won nine in a row, which started with five games in five days to claim the Big East title. In the NCAAs, UConn topped Bucknell, Cincinnati, San Diego State, and Arizona to reach Houston. These two met earlier this season, with the Huskies routing the Wildcats, 84-67, in the Maui Invitational final back on November 24th, thanks to 29 points from Kemba Walker.
After the jump, I'll look at the results for this week's poll.
NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Regional Final Sunday
Half of the Final Four is set, as the Butler Bulldogs claimed the Southeast crown with a thrilling overtime win over the Florida Gators and the Connecticut Huskies claimed an exciting win of their own, topping the Arizona Wildcats in the West final.
These two teams will learn their opponents for Saturday this afternoon, as the second half of the bracket is wrapped up. We can only hope that today's contests will be as exciting as yesterday's. If they are, this quartet of regional finals may rival those of 2005 in the annals of college basketball.
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Southwest Region Final No. 11 VCU Rams vs. No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks |
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My Pick: On its face, this one is pretty cut and dried. Kansas should be able to use its size to thoroughly dominate VCU and advance. However, Florida State's advantage didn't do them much good on Friday night. Still, the Rams are arguably only here because of the Seminoles' inability to close, while the Jayhawks are playing with a fire that was absent in last year's run. KenPom.com projects a 81-68 win for Kansas, but if the Rams shoot the three-ball as well as they have in their previous four NCAA games, they'll match George Mason's 2006 Final Four run. I'm picking Kansas, but by a closer margin.
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East Region Final No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 3 North Carolina Tar Heels |
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My Pick: This game is a rematch December 4th's 75-73 Tar Heel win in Chapel Hill, a result that was a major surprise at the time. However, both teams have grown up considerably since then. UNC followed up a bad loss to Georgia Tech on January 16th by winning 17 of their last 19. Kentucky hasn't quite been so hot, but they've won nine straight and 10 out of 11. For both teams, freshmen have been leading the way, with a few of notable exceptions. Harrison Barnes' presence and Kendall Marshall's emergence have boosted a Tar Heel team that features just one senior on the roster. As for the Wildcats, senior Josh Harrellson has been a pleasant surprise during the team's late run, complementing youngsters Terrence Jones, Brandon Knight, and Doron Lamb. KenPom.com projects a nailbiter, a 73-72 Kentucky win. I think it will be a Carolina victory, but by a very narrow margin.
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NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Regional Final Saturday
Seven games are left this season, and two today and two tomorrow will determine who will meet in the final four-team tournament of the season in Houston.
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Southeast Region Final No. 8 Butler Bulldogs vs. No. 2 Florida Gators |
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My Pick: Come on now...you know that despite my love and respect for the mid-majors, I have to go with the alma mater here. However, this is more wishful thinking than anything else. Butler's guards and forwards will provide a serious test for Florida because of their physicality. You'll want to particularly keep in mind that Shelvin Mack and Ronald Nored have a size advantage on Kenny Boynton and Erving Walker. Plus, two Bulldogs, Shawn Vanzant (Tampa) and Khyle Marshall (Davie), have Sunshine State roots. Butler's 6-11 sophomore center, Andrew Smith, should play some, despite suffering a lower body injury (appeared to be a knee, but the school said it was an ankle) against Wisconsin. The key things for the Gators will be to get Matt Howard in foul trouble, something he's done a better job of preventing this year, control the perimeter, and keep the Dawgs off the free throw line (while converting their own opportunity). If Florida plays as stupidly as they did at points on Thursday, they'll be in serious trouble against one of the best-coached teams out there. KenPom.com has this as a 68-64 Florida win, and I can't really argue with that. Pomeroy also projects 62 possessions, which makes sense since both of these clubs are at about 64 trips per contest.
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West Region Final No. 5 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 3 Connecticut Huskies |
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My Pick: I honestly thought UConn would have run out of gas by now, I really did. While the Huskies took advantage of a late San Diego State dry spell Thursday, they aren't likely to be so lucky against Arizona this evening, particularly after the Wildcats' torrid final 20 minutes against Duke. Thanks to Kemba Walker's presence and Momo Jones' occasional foibles, the backcourt edge goes to UConn, while Arizona gets an edge inside, thanks to Derrick Williams, who has a bit more talent than the Huskies' unit. Once again, KenPom.com projects a close game, a 73-70 Connecticut victory, over 65 possessions (again, not a bad guess for teams who are in the 66-trip neighborhood). I'll agree with that, and add a guess that Kemba Walker will be involved in UConn's game-winner.
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NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Regional Semifinal Friday
On Thursday night, the Southeast and West Regional Finals were set for Saturday afternoon and evening. In New Orleans, second seeded Florida will meet No. 8 Butler, last year's national runner-up, for the right to advance to Houston. Over in Anaheim, surprising five seed Arizona plays No. 3 Connecticut for a spot.
The final half of the Elite Eight will be determined this evening as the East and Southwest Regions take center stage. Information on these games is after the jump.
Samsung Fan Poll Results: Southwest Regional Semifinal No. 11 VCU vs. No 10 Florida State
For this week's Samsung Consensus Fan Poll, I picked the game that guarantees an Elite Eight slot to a double-digit seed, Friday night's Southwest Regional Semifinal between the 11th-seeded VCU and the No. 10 seed Florida State (TBS, approx. 9:57 p.m. ET).
Even though this contest pits two teams who found themselves among the last few teams in, the circumstances of their selection couldn't be more different. The Rams' inclusion created a sizable amount of controversy, even if they were sent to Dayton to play in the First Four. Meanwhile, the Seminoles were expected to be in, especially after a third-place finish in the ACC, though their seeding was perhaps a line or two lower than expected.
More on the matchup, and the poll results are after the jump.
NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Regional Semifinal Thursday
The Regional Semifinals, the "Sweet Sixteen" in NCAA trademark and popular parlance, tip off tonight. Thursday and Friday are the last two nights of the tournament that require a serious viewing guide, as the remaining seven (yes, you read that right) games are all on CBS without another option.
Things get started with some marquee games in the West and Southeast regionals, which begin not long after 7 p.m. ET this evening. Information on those games, starting with the action in Anaheim is after the jump.
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