Blogging the Bracket: FanPosts

Yet Another Ranking System (spoiler: Outperforming Ken Pom's!)

2013-04-08T19:45:43Z

I created a formula for guessing winners and losers in the NCAA tournament and I'd like your feedback. So far, it's outperformed pure Ken Pomeroy rankings (just the raw overall rankings) and various pundits (Eisenberg, Bilas, and "Chalk" even though it's not technically a pundit). It didn't do as well in the latter rounds (4/8, 1/4, and 1/2 respectively), but I think it's because a) luck plays a much bigger role in predicting the outcome of those games, and b) the figures don't take into account the 2 or 3 games they've played in the tournament up to that point (although the impact of including those games would probably be minimal at best).

In essence, all it does is use the season's box score statistics to calculate how many points a team should score per possession, on average, and how many points a team should allow per possession, on average.

Each possession can end one of three ways--a score, a turnover, or another possession. For the purposes of my calculations, I counted a miss and a defensive rebound by the opponent as a turnover, while a miss and an offensive rebound results in another possession. As such, I can use the box score statistics to create a formula that uses multiple advanced metrics to calculate what "should" happen on each possession. I'm able to calculate a team's True Shooting% (TS%), Offensive Rebounding Rate (OR%), Defensive Rebounding Rate (DR%), and Turnover Percentage (TOV%) using pure box score stats. This gives me all the values I need to calculate what will happen on a given possession.

For example, Indiana has a TOV% of 16.36%, so I am expecting that on each possession, there is a 16.36% chance that Indiana turns it over without getting a shot off. If they maintain possession, they have a TS% of 60.2%. If they miss, they have an ORB% of 50.93%, at which point they essentially get a new possession. I'll include the figures for each team separately, but you can basically derive my whole formula from the above example.

I perform the same calculation for the opponents' box score numbers, which essentially gives me the team's defensive figures--namely, TS% allowed, turnovers forced, and offensive rebounding rate allowed (Indiana allowed a .48 TS%, forced a 18% TOV%, and allowed a 49.17% ORB%). I create a differential between these two values, and that gives me the difference in points per possession (PPP). This gives me a raw PPP differential that doesn't take pace or strength of schedule into account.

The next step I did was to adjust this for their strength of schedule (SOS). I didn't have time to calculate it on my own, because frankly, I'm not sure how I should do it. I used the strength of schedule figure in College Basketball Reference (CBR) for each team, but in the future, I'd like to revisit this and try out a couple strength of schedule calculations to see what makes the most sense. If anyone has any ideas on how to approach this, I'd really like to see that too.

The CBR SOS "is denominated in points above/below average". Indiana has a SOS of 8.4 figure, which implies that against a schedule of average opponents, Indiana would have scored 8.4 more points. I'm not sure if this value is per game, but that's what I assumed. Since my PPP calculation is per Possession (by definition), I calculated the total number of possessions the team has on average, per game. This possession calculation was performed using the formula detailed in the CBR glossary.

In the end, I have a PPP differential, a SOS figure, and an average number of possessions per game. So for example, Indiana has a raw PPP of .22, meaning that they score about .22 more points per offensive possession than they give up per defensive possession. They would have scored 8.4 more points per game against a schedule of average opponents (the SOS figure), and they average 66.67 possessions per game. These figures are combined to give a PPP figure that's adjusted for both a team's strength of schedule, and a team's pace. Indiana ends up with an adjusted PPP figure of about .35, meaning that against an average opponent, they would outscore them by 35 points per 100 possessions, or 35 * .6667 per game. This allows us to rank each team against a common baseline that takes pace and strength of schedule into account.

A few weaknesses I'd like to point out first. The more possessions a team has, the lower the impact of their strength of schedule figure. I'm not sure if this makes sense or not, but this is necessary since we are comparing teams at a possession level. Ideally, this SOS figure would have a possessions component embedded in it already, but that may not be guaranteed. Also, the strength of schedule rating heavily favors the big major teams. Only Colorado St., Gonzaga, and VCU are in the top 15 by this ranking. Colorado St. has a 63% ORB%, which is highest in this pool, but having never played against a Jeff Withey or Mason Plumlee, we can't exactly translate their production to the NCAA tournament. In a similar vein, given the exact same team box score, this method weights a win over Louisville the same as a win against Grambling St., excepting the impact that playing these teams would have on their SOS figure.

With these caveats in mind, it has Louisville, Florida, Wisconsin, and Indiana as the top 4 teams, followed by Pittsburgh, Ohio State, Michigan, and Colorado St. These rankings have Gonzaga at #9, and Kansas at #20. Considering the teams in the Final Four, Syracuse is #12 and Wichita St. is #19.

We can compare these ranks to Ken Pom (which also takes into account SOS, pace, and offensive and defensive efficiency), who has Louisville, Florida, Indiana, and Gonzaga as his top 4 teams, followed by Michigan, Ohio St., Syracuse, and Duke. He has Kansas a full 10 spots above me at #10, Pittsburgh is at #11, and Colorado St. is all the way down at #30. The differences in our rankings only resulted in me making two more correct picks than him--Colorado St. over Missouri, and Arizona over New Mexico (which actually turned out to be Harvard). My rankings also favored Michigan St. over Duke.

From here, I think the biggest improvement I can make is regarding the strength of schedule. Wichita St., for example, has a better raw PPP than Ohio St., but the schedule Ohio St. faced improved its ranking in this system (It's interesting to note that Wisconsin has a better ranking than either team, too). I need a way to weight good performances against strong opponents higher than great performances against average opponents, as well as maybe including something for weighing recent games more heavily.

What do you think? Any suggestions?

Good for College Basketball?

2013-03-25T21:01:47Z

This past Thursday was the kick off of another march madness filled with surprise, stress and the sounds of paper shredding as brackets were thrown out with every game. There were record blowouts mixed in with the first last second game winner in almost three years. A number 1 seed lost in the round of 32 for the second time in 3 years. Then Cinderella reared her head again with upset on upset everyday, yet one glass slipper was a little bigger after being found in Ft Myers Florida. Now my question is, after a weekend filled with bracket disappointment and many top teams losing early, is it good for the sport of college basketball. It’s great to say that a little tiny school went and beat Georgetown, but where is the marketability. In a time where money is most important, it’s easier to sell tickets to a Georgetown game than Florida Gulf Coast. It was also sad to see Gonzaga lose so early in the tourney. With the chance to prove the committee wrong and show that the WCC can compete with the big boys and try to being basketball back to the Pacific Northwest they blew it. Almost becoming the first #1 to lose would have set the Zags back very far, but would not have been a surprise to anyone watching the game. Then there is the other side of the spectrum with powerhouses like Syracuse that make times unfortunate to smaller schools. When a team comes out and then is sent home after a a 47 point embarrassment would not be a "learning" experience. It would be hard for me as a coach to say that we played well when our team almost didnt score 30 points. The tournament is always fun if your a big fan of basketball, but if the NCAA wants to reach out, allowing more teams in might not be the right way to go.

Expanding the field to 80 teams

2013-03-25T02:04:19Z

Increasing the number of at-large bids to 49 instead of the current 37.

All 31 automatic bids would receive a bye into the round of 64.

The top 17 highest ranked at-large bids and the top 15 highest ranked automatic bids would be among top 8 seeds in each regional. The 16 lowest ranked automatic bids would be seeded 13 thru 16.

The other 32 at-large bids would play for the 9th thru 12th seeds.

The 1st round would be played Tuesday thru Friday, the round of 64 on Saturday and Sunday, the round of 32 on the following Monday thru Thursday, the sweet 16 on Saturday and Sunday, the regional finals on the following Monday thru Thursday. The Final Four and National Championship Game would be played as usual, on Saturday and Monday.

The NIT could choose their field of 32 from among the 48 1st and 2nd round losers, although that would mean starting a week later than usual.

Increasing the number of at-large bids to 49 instead of the current 37.

All 31 automatic bids would receive a bye into the round of 64.

The top 17 highest ranked at-large bids and the top 15 highest ranked automatic bids would be among top 8 seeds in each regional. The 16 lowest ranked automatic bids would be seeded 13 thru 16.

The other 32 at-large bids would play for the 9th thru 12th seeds.

The NIT could choose their field of 32 from among the 48 1st and 2nd round losers, although that would mean starting a week later than usual.

Why Gonzaga has no chance to make the Final Four By Dylan Mortimer

2013-03-20T03:46:18Z

When you think Gonzaga you think 31-2, you think WCC, and you think Kelly Olynyk. There is no doubt that Gonzaga has had one of if not the best season in its schools history. Losing only twice and both times to a #13 ranked opponent is nothing to scoff at. Many people are very skeptical of thte fact that Gonzaga did not acquire the #1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament. The fact that Gonzaga is in the WCC means that they don't play many high caliber teams that will do damage down the road in the tourney. Playing in the WCC makes it very hard to come by real quality wins. Gonzaga's best wins this year were probably against Baylor 94-87, Oklahoma St. 69-68, Kansas St. 68-52 and against BYU 70-65. Two of these teams did not make the NCAA tournament, one is a 4 seed and one is a 5 seed. The most notable of these wins was against Oklahoma State who was ranked #22 and it was Gonzaga's only top 25 win. Oklahoma State is a good team with great back court featuring Marcus Smart. This team is not known for their front court. Which brings us to Kelly Olynyk. The reason that Gonzaga was able to squeak out a 1 point win is because of how weak the Oklahoma St. Frontcourt is. Philip Jurick, the Ok St. Center had 2 points and 7 rebounds and the Ok St. Power Forward Kamari Murphy had 0 points and 1 rebound. These two players combine for 6.7 points per game. This mean that Olynyk was able to go 7-12 from the field and 7-8 from the ft line. Ok St. absolutely dominated the guard play. Their three starting guards had 16, 15, and 23 points. If Ok St. could have gotten even a tiny more bit of production from their front court they could have easily won. But teams can't win with only a back court.

So in recap, Gonzaga's only top 25 win was against a team with one of the weakest front courts in the NCAA Tournament. This is not the kind of competition they will be facing in their bracket. Their first matchup against Southern U I give to them. Gonzaga is still a good team and can easily win against weaker teams like Southern U. Southern U has a couple of scorers averaging over 11 ppg but no a very strong front court. Gonzaga's second matchup is interesting. They will either be playing the 8 seed Pitt or the 9 seed Wichita St. Should Pitt win their matchup I think they have a very decent chance at knocking off Gonzaga. The reason Pitt has a chance is their freshman center Steven Adams. Adams stands 7'0" and weighs 250 pounds, he controls the paint and averages 2 blocks per game as a freshman in the Big East. Steven Adams has the skill and body to bang with any post player in the country. He is probably one of the toughest matchups Olynyk could face this tournament. If he is able to shut down or at least slow down Olynyk, I give Pitt's efficient and fast backcourt a great chance to win the game. This is all based off of Pitt beating Wichita St. so lets examine a Gonzaga vs. Wichita St. Matchup. Wichita St. is ranked 27th in the nation in team rebounding. The shockers also have their two forwards as their leading scorers and their leading rebounders. This front court could deal damage to Olynyk and Harris. With Olynyk and Harris playing sub par anything is possible for the Shockers but I'd give Pittsburgh a much better chance at beating Gonzaga than Wichita State. Keep in mind that both of these teams are far superior to the WCC teams that Gonzaga is used to playing and the teams that have given them their great season averages.

If Gonzaga reaches the sweet sixteen the two teams that they are most likely to play in my mind are Kansas St. and Wisconsin. Gonzaga has already beaten Kansas St. this year by 16. In that game Kansas St. Had an absolutely horrible shooting night 33.3% from the field as a team. If Gonzaga is lucky, they will get this matchup again. I would expect Olynyk to have a very good game but K St.'s guard play is far superior to Gonzaga's. K St.'s guards are their leading scorers while Gonzaga's are their forwards. This game would be a virtual Front court vs. Back court game. A game that could go either way, and not something a #1 seed should be facing in the sweet sixteen. The other most likely matchup is against Wisconsin. Wisconsin has a very spread out attack and everyone they put on the floor will be able to rebound. A couple of good stats to look at for this matchup are the box scores for Wisconsin's two wins against Indiana. In both games Wisconsin had four players in double figures and they were able to contain POY candidate Cody Zeller. If you can beat a team with Cody Zeller twice you're doing something right. In my mind if you are containing Cody Zeller then you can contain Olynyk and without Olynyk Gonzaga is nothing. Wisconsin cannot be shut down because you can't beat them by locking down one guy. They have at least four guys that are capable of carrying the load. This is why they were able to knock off big names such as Indiana, Michigan, Ohio St. and Illinois. Wisconsin has shown that they can really bean anyone and can really sneak up on teams. I would take Wisconsin over Gonzaga with a fair amount of confidence.

Now I am going to cover Gonzaga's elite 8 matchup with the team that I am picking to be in that game, Big Ten Champs Ohio State. In this matchup I have no doubt at all that Ohio St. would overpower Gonzaga. First of all this is a very hot Ohio St. team that is currently on an 8 game winning streak against teams that are ACTUALLY good. Ohio St. has a superb back court that features Aaron Craft who is the all time leader in steals for Ohio St. I can foresee Aaron Craft absolutely ravaging the Gonzaga back court. I am having visions of turnover after turnover by Stockton. There is no one on Gonzaga that has had to defend someone as physically imposing and as skilled as Deshaun Thomas this year. Thomas has shown the ability to become unconscious and knock down every look he gets. Both of these players will also make their free throws down the stretch. Ohio St. is an all around very athletic team that will force turnovers and run in transition. The overall height and strength of Ohio St.'s front court players like Deshaun Thomas will be what they need to contain Olynyk enough to get the win. On the other side Craft and Smith Jr. will be taking out Gonzaga's guard play and there will be no one to set Olynyk up.

This is why Gonzaga will not make it to the Final Four .

Please Comment your thoughts,

Thanks

This is why Gonzaga will not make it to the Final Four .

Please Comment your thoughts,

Thanks

5 Great Places To Get Your Bracket In Before Its Too Late (Because You Can Win Prizes!)

2013-03-19T20:45:19Z

If you haven't already made your bracket, or if you already have and think it’s so perfect that it will win you sweet, sweet prizes, then you will want to check out these online bracket makers. Some make it easier than others, but all of them promise prizes for those lucky smart enough to pick the winners and prove they know college basketball.

Fox Sports

Fox Sports is so sure that you are not smart enough to build a perfect bracket that they are willing to bet you a $1,000,000 and not even expect you to pay them when you lose ... or something like that. Okay, they will give you that amount if achieve perfect and there is nothing about betting on their site. I just read that into it.

After you get past the grand prize the rewards drop pretty significantly after that. First prize is 1/1000th of the grand prize. If you end up placing in the top 200 you will get a $25 or $10 gift card to FoxSports Shop. Worth it? Maybe.

ESPN

In terms of prizes, ESPN leaves a little to be desired compared to a potential Million Dollar payout. There is a good bit of randomness in this contest as well. The top 1% will be entered into the drawing for a $10,000 gift card to BestBuy. Not a bad deal if you part of the 1%. You will be double happy if you are part of the 1% and the 1% - rich and lucky.

Yahoo Sports

Yahoo Sports is putting another $10,000 prize on the table, bringing the grand total for totally owning everyone in America up to $1,020,000. They have a handy countdown timer on their site so if you need to know if you still have time they are great place to go. The bracket is really easy to understand and interact with, my 63 year-old father could totally pull it off. They also let you see how many users made the same pick as you - good knowledge to have so you can be different and beat everyone else. After all, there can be only 1.

NBC Sports

I'm not exactly sure what the prizes are here, but the interface is so just easy to use this is a definite recommendation for anyone just looking to casually compete against their friends, family, or random strangers. All you have to do is click your winner in each match-up and in less than 2 seconds you have an entire bracket filled out. A handy print option makes it great for sticking in your pocket to pull out during work, as you are driving, or as you are getting your teeth cleaned. Pretty much whenever the hell you feel like.

CBS Sports

My favorite was definitely CBS Sports. If you are really good, you might have a luxury trip to see the Final Four! Imagine winning over a $1,000,000 in prizes AND getting to the Final Four. Now that would be the baddest mad March that ever happened to anyone ever.

Extra Bonus: BracketWars

Not exactly a bracket and not really a place to win a prize, BracketWars is really a fan voting contest (channeling American Idol) where the winner is the Boys and Girls Club of America. Voting is really simple. All you have to do is click a button for the team that you feel like has the best fans in the nation. If you don't care about any of the teams they list then just choose a city that you want the "prize" money to go to. Its really that simple.

Does your bracket have what it takes to win over a $1,000,000 this March Madness season?

Fox Sports

ESPN

Yahoo Sports

NBC Sports

CBS Sports

Extra Bonus: BracketWars

Does your bracket have what it takes to win over a $1,000,000 this March Madness season?

Early Madness Look

2013-03-17T21:02:17Z

With only a few hours left until the brackets are reveled, and only the final details being worked out, I decided to take a quick look at what this years tournament has in store for us. Lets start from the top and look at some of the top teams in the country including Indiana and Gonzaga. There can only be four number 1 seeds, but there have been seven or eight teams that had a viable shot to gain a number 1 heading into the tournament. Teams like Michigan and Duke suffered greatly down the stretch with key losses to unranked opponents. However, this disparity between the top seeds will allow for a great and unpredictable tournament and possibly play out for a mid major to shock the world and win the whole tournament. If I had to take a quick pick for the Final Four, I would have to pick Indiana, Duke, Michigan and Gonzaga with Indiana and Duke playing for the National Championship. This would set up an outstanding battle between bigs Cody Zeller and Ryan Kelly, and guards Victor Oladipo and Seth Curry, then allowing Indiana to come out victorious for the first time in 26 years.

What would a BCS Ranking for college basketball look like?

2013-02-26T10:40:53Z

An ideaover on my blog. I think it would be effective and let the committe focus on slotting instead of ranking teams. College Basketball, the sport everyone loved at a clean 64 teams and that most admonish for its increased teams creep, could actually stand to benefit from the accelerator pressed to the floor and TV money execs going so hog wild they devour literally every possible eligible team, in a way that would make college basketball's regular season intriguing for every single team involved and thus even better than college football's, as unimaginable as that is right now. How? Let everyone into the tournament, but make the relative ease of the path depend on your regular season results. Are you a good team that survives the gauntlet of one of the best conference seasons in NCAA history like the '09 Big East or '13 Big Ten by winning a share of the regular season title and a fiercely contended conference tournament? You may have only two games against 6-8 seed fare to make the final four, raising your incentive by a lot to pull off such a tall task.

Nate Wolters

2012-03-06T17:34:44Z

Tonight at 9 pm (est), the Western Illinois Leathernecks will take on the South Dakota State Jackrabbits in the Summit League championship game in Sioux Falls, SD on ESPN2. This doesn't sound like too much of an appealing game, but if I may make a suggestion, flip over for a little bit and watch #3 from SDSU, junior guard Nate Wolters.

Wolters was not heavily recruited out of high school (he's from St. Cloud, MN) but has blossomed into one of the most electric players in college basketball. He is eighth in the nation in scoring (21.5 ppg) and also leads the team in assists (6.1),rebounds (5.1), and steals (1.7). At 6'3" he creates matchup problems with most PG's. While he won't dazzle you with his quickness, Nate is loaded with athleticism and he puts it on display night after night.

Wolters is coming off a 22 point outing vs IUPUI on Saturday and a 30 point outburst in the semifinals last night against Southern Utah. DraftExpress.com currently projects him as the 49th pick of the 2013 NBA Draft, with his stock certainly rising and one more year to improve it even more.

Obviously you can tell I'm a big fan of Wolters, and yes, I'm somewhat of a homer living about 45 minutes from the SDSU campus, but believe me, the kid can play. If you won't take my word for it, check out the Summit League Championship, live from Sioux Falls, SD at 9 pm (est) tonight on ESPN2 and ESPN3.com. Naters gonna Nate.

Men's NCAA Division One Ice Hockey Championship Update

2011-03-27T04:16:19Z

People on twitter know that I love college hockey and my Fighting Sioux... my name is Matthew (and my screen name is @HokieGuru on Twitter).

Congratulations to the University of Minnesota - Duluth who defeated Yale today by the score of 5-3 in the East Regional Final. In the night cap, the University of Michigan was victorious over Colorado College 2-1. Both teams punched their tickets to the 2011 Frozen Four in the Twin Cities. That leaves two bids left... so...

On Sunday, March 27, 2011, North Dakota (who defeated RPI 6-0) takes on Denver (who defeated Western Michigan 3-2 in 2 OTs) in the Midwest Regional Final at 5:30 PM EST (the game is on ESPNU-HD or ESPN3.com).

Also on Sunday, Notre Dame (who defeated Merrimack 4-3 in OT) takes on New Hampshire (who beat Miami 3-1) in the Northeast Regional Final at 8 PM EST (the game is also on ESPNU-HD or ESPN3.com).

These are nice Sunday night viewing options :)

Take care... enjoy the rest of your weekend.

People on twitter know that I love college hockey and my Fighting Sioux... my name is Matthew (and my screen name is @HokieGuru on Twitter).

Also on Sunday, Notre Dame (who defeated Merrimack 4-3 in OT) takes on New Hampshire (who beat Miami 3-1) in the Northeast Regional Final at 8 PM EST (the game is also on ESPNU-HD or ESPN3.com).

These are nice Sunday night viewing options :)

Take care... enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Eas(t)y Targets

2011-03-21T16:41:31Z

Much has been alleged of the Big (L)East's demise as a postseason basketball power. With 11 teams selected to the NCAA tournament, bracket-pickers expected impressive results, only to find that the conference may not be what Dennis Green thought they were. But was this a legendary case of choking, or a bit of regression to reality?

First, let's state truths and assumptions:

The Big East was over-hyped the day before the tournament started. That wasn't its fault. Big East teams just played the games on their schedule, and sports media and fans in the Northeast took it from there.
Too much emphasis is placed on conference strength instead of team strength. Team strength and individual match-ups affect game outcomes. Conference strength is necessarily correlated, but not directly involved in who wins.
One team (Villanova) made the tournament because it's in the Big East. The Wildcats' body of work was solid, but let's be honest enough to admit that an Atlantic 10 team with a similar record and the same end-of-season fall from glory would be in the NIT. Villanova faceplanted against Big East teams down the stretch, so how could it be representative of the conference's power? Villanova was dancing because of conference hype, which added to irrationally high expectations.
At least 2 Big East teams weren't going to make the Sweet 16, because they were in bracket sections where only one could advance (see the Marquette-Syracuse and Cincinnati-UConn games).

That leaves us with 8 (or 9, depending on your opinion of Villanova) potential Sweet 16 teams from the Big East. The first two rounds eliminate 3/4 of the field, and if we assume complete parity as a method of ignoring conference hype, then the Big East would get 2 teams into the Sweet 16...which happened.

Are you already drafting a comment about my idiotic assumption of parity? Okay, fine - the Big East is 50% better than the average NCAA basketball conference. Read that again - it's an outlandish figure that isn't even close to being true, but for the sake of counterargument, that means the Big East should have gotten 3 teams into the Sweet 16 instead of 2...so they were 1 team short. Postseason disaster, really?

Of course, the astute reader could argue in reverse and say that the Big East placed 2 teams in the Sweet 16 precisely because they got 2 second round games where a Big East team was guaranteed to advance, and otherwise could have placed no teams at all. That, unfortunately, will forever be an arguable point because we rarely get to see counterfactuals in sports.

The Big East was the best conference in basketball, but that doesn't mean each of its teams are better than each team they could play in the NCAA tournament. Match-ups are crucial, and a strong team from a stout conference can get stomped by a hot hand it can't defend (Georgetown will tell you about that).

Bet against the Big East next March. I'm not afraid to win your money.

The Big East was over-hyped the day before the tournament started. That wasn't its fault. Big East teams just played the games on their schedule, and sports media and fans in the Northeast took it from there.
Too much emphasis is placed on conference strength instead of team strength. Team strength and individual match-ups affect game outcomes. Conference strength is necessarily correlated, but not directly involved in who wins.
One team (Villanova) made the tournament because it's in the Big East. The Wildcats' body of work was solid, but let's be honest enough to admit that an Atlantic 10 team with a similar record and the same end-of-season fall from glory would be in the NIT. Villanova faceplanted against Big East teams down the stretch, so how could it be representative of the conference's power? Villanova was dancing because of conference hype, which added to irrationally high expectations.
At least 2 Big East teams weren't going to make the Sweet 16, because they were in bracket sections where only one could advance (see the Marquette-Syracuse and Cincinnati-UConn games).

NCAA Tournament Bracket: Winners, Losers, and Answers

2011-03-17T13:16:59Z

Here are the "guaranteed" NCAA picks; that is, "guaranteed" to be revised by Saturday.

What happens in the dark room once the NCAA Selection Committee convenes?

You mean besides Charlie Rich’s “Behind Closed Doors” playing on a continuous loop? Beyond that, it’s business as usual for the committee, like formulating new and creative ways to explain Virginia Tech’s omission from the tournament, all while sifting through their Big East goody bags. This year, the committee donned Guy Fawkes masks, because, apparently, the ‘V’ in “Virginia Tech” is for ‘Vendetta.’

The tourney expanded from 64 to 68 teams, yet the committee still shafted teams that deserved bids, and rewarded some that did not. Why? No one knows. When asked to explain, committee members usually respond with the usual canned answers, with sentences beginning with “We felt…” and “We were of the opinion….,” or “Buffaloes have been extinct in Indianapolis for centuries.” The public wants answers, and there’s only one way to get them: by granting full media access to the selection committee meetings and televise them, preferably with an annoying host, like one named “Ryan Sequester.” And publish committee members’ addresses, telephone numbers, and bank account activity within the last week.

What more do the Colorado Buffalos have to do to prove they belonged in the NCAA tournament?

It’s simple: join the Big East.

First-round games will be televised not only on CBS, but also on TruTV, TBS, and TNT. Is this a basketball junkie’s dream?

Absolutely. What can be better than a few basketball games on TruTV followed by a "Cops" marathon? That’s like watching “Current Basketball Stars,” then chasing it with “Former Basketball Stars: Where Are They Now?”

Watching basketball on TBS and TNT, two stations built by professional wrestling, will be a new experience, and as long as the N.W.O. doesn’t threaten the broadcasts, viewers should be quite satisfied.

By the way, shouldn’t TruTV, at least for a few days, return to calling itself CourtTV?

Who is the odd-on favorite to capture the title?

Ohio State. The Buckeyes have the talent, depth, leadership, and coaching. Plus, the potential market for national championship memorabilia has the team eager to succeed and start cashing in.

How long before an overly exuberant Gus Johnson call ends up on YouTube?

Not soon enough.

What are some of the intriguing first-round matchups?

In the Southwest Region, Louisville and Morehead State, both from the state of Kentucky, meet in Denver in the 4-13 game. Louisville is heavily-favored. Rick Pitino won a national championship in 1996 and is the only coach to have led three different schools to the Final Four. Morehead State head coach Donnie Tyndall’s accomplishments are miniscule by comparison. But Tyndall’s never been extorted by a woman with whom he had sex on a restaurant table. So call the coaching matchup even, and Tyndall envious.

After a close half, Louisville steadily pulls away to win by 16.

In the West, Bruce Pearl and 9th-seeded Tennessee face the 8th-seeded Michigan Wolverines in Charlotte, with the winner drawing top-seeded Duke. Pearl will likely be wearing his orange sports jacket, not necessarily because it’s Tennessee’s school color. The NCAA has mandated that Pearl wear orange because it makes him easier to see, as well as indicate a “recruiting threat level” of “5,” the highest.

Give me the Wolverines over the Volunteers by (Fab) 5.

In the Southeast, 22-10 UCLA takes on 19-14 Michigan State meet in Tampa with the winner likely meeting No. 2-seeded Florida. The Bruins' and Spartans' combined 24 losses are the second-most of any first-round matchup, but don’t underestimate the threat of these two teams. Michigan State coach Tom Izzo’s reputation precedes him as one of the best tournament coaches. In fact, if Izzo coached Virginia Tech, they’d be a no. 5 seed.

MSU wins 74-70.

The No. 13-seeded Princeton Tigers challenge 4th-seeded Kentucky in the East. Princeton’s Ivy League champion team is senior-heavy. To Kentucky head coach John Calipari, a “senior” is a terrible recruiting job on his part. Princeton relies on “back-door” cuts. Calipari leaves jobs via the back door. But he sure knows how to sweet-talk a 17-year-old. Call him the “Mark Sanchez of college basketball.”

Wildcats by 21.

Can Duke repeat as national champions?

If the Blue Devils are hitting three-pointers, and officials are calling questionable charging violations on their opponents, then anything is possible. Duke football players aren’t the only athletes at Duke that fall down without being touched. Take a look at Dexter Strickland’s dunk over Kyle Singler from Sunday’s ACC title game. That’s a charge? I’ve heard more valid accusations by a stripper at a Duke lacrosse party. Here’s a novel idea for the NCAA basketball rules committee to ponder: if you try to take a charge but get dunked on instead, then the call is automatically blocking.

If the Devils can get by the underachieving Texas Longhorns in the regional semi’s, then a berth in the Final Four is likely. If super freshman Kyrie “Dr. Scholl’s” Irving plays, then it’s a guarantee they’ll be in Houston. However, with Ohio State in Duke’s side of the bracket, a title repeat seems unlikely.

How far can Jimmer Fredette carry Brigham Young?

Reportedly, the Cougars have dedicated their tournament to suspended player Brandon Davies, so anything less than going all the way will be a disappointment. Any player that can score 52 points in a game (as Fredette did against New Mexico in the Mountain West semi-finals) is capable of leading his team deep into the tournament. BYU’s team of undersexed young adults has won 30 games, and their pent-up energy is suited to winning multiple games in the tournament. In Provo, that’s called “polygame-y.”

Fredette drops 37 on St. John’s in the second round, then shoots down Florida in the regional semi-finals, but the Cougars fall to Pittsburgh in the Southeast finals.

Can North Carolina bounce back from a devastating ACC tournament title game loss?

For the Heels, it’s all about motivation. And just a glance through the East brackets should give UNC plenty of motivation. Revenge is the name of the game. Assuming the Heels beat Long Island, they’ll face either Georgia (who dropped Carolina in the 1983 East region final) or Washington, led by guard Isaiah Thomas, who’s named after Isiah Thomas, who led Indiana to the 1981 national championship over Carolina.

Then there’s 11th-seeded Marquette, the team that vanquished North Carolina in the 1977 national championship title game. And 8th-seeded George Mason shocked the Heels in the second round in 2010.

So, if Roy Williams can get his team motivated by three of four events that occurred before any of his players were even born, the Heels should be fired up and ready. Anything less than a trip to the regional final will be a disappointment.

Speaking of UNC, will Roy Williams faint at any point in the tournament?

You say “Tar,” I say “he’ll” pass out during the second half of Carolina’s regional semi-final against Xavier.

Will UNC’s Harrison Barnes return for his sophomore season at Carolina?

Yes, in 2014 after his third year in the NBA with the Sacramento Kings.

Can the Big East tournament champion Connecticut Huskies make an impact after playing five games in five days?

Yes. In fact, it should be easy. Heck, all they have to do is win two games in three days, and they’ve made an impact. Kemba Walker may be the Huskies driving force, but most of the credit should go to head coach Jim Calhoun. After all, it all happened under his watch.

First Round Winners

East: Ohio State, George Mason, West Virginia, Kentucky, Xavier, Syracuse, Washington, North Carolina

West: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Texas, Missouri, Connecticut, Temple, San Diego State

Southwest: Kansas, UNLV, Richmond, Louisville, Georgetown, Purdue, Florida State, Notre Dame

Southeast: Pittsburgh, Butler, Kansas State, Wisconsin, St. John’s, BYU, Michigan State, Florida

Sweet 16

Ohio State, Kentucky, Syracuse, North Carolina, Duke, Arizona, Missouri, San Diego State, Kansas, Vanderbilt, Purdue, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, BYU, Florida

Final 8

Ohio State vs. North Carolina
Duke vs. San Diego State
Kansas vs. Notre Dame
Pittsburgh vs. BYU

Final 4

Ohio State
Duke
Notre Dame
Pittsburgh

Championship

Ohio State over Pittsburgh

My Predictions

2011-03-13T19:47:38Z

Hello, I decided to try and pick all 37 at large teams this year. Here they are:

Locks (27)
UNC	Temple	Notre Dame
Georgetown	Wisconsin	Villanova
Louisville	Purdue	Pittsburgh
Syracuse	St. Johns	Texas
Texas A&M	Missouri	BYU
Vanderbilt	Florida	Kansas State
West Virginia	Cincinnati	UNLV
George Mason	Marquette	UCLA
Florida State	Arizona	Xavier

10 LEFT
Teams that Should Be IN (8)
Tennessee
Illinois
Michigan
Clemson
Michigan State
Penn State
Colorado
Virginia Tech

2 LEFT
Teams on the BUBBLE (2)
Alabama
USC

FIRST 4 OUT
Saint Mary's
Georgia
Boston College
Harvard

Hello, I decided to try and pick all 37 at large teams this year. Here they are:

Locks (27)
UNC	Temple	Notre Dame
Georgetown	Wisconsin	Villanova
Louisville	Purdue	Pittsburgh
Syracuse	St. Johns	Texas
Texas A&M	Missouri	BYU
Vanderbilt	Florida	Kansas State
West Virginia	Cincinnati	UNLV
George Mason	Marquette	UCLA
Florida State	Arizona	Xavier

10 LEFT
Teams that Should Be IN (8)
Tennessee
Illinois
Michigan
Clemson
Michigan State
Penn State
Colorado
Virginia Tech

2 LEFT
Teams on the BUBBLE (2)
Alabama
USC

FIRST 4 OUT
Saint Mary's
Georgia
Boston College
Harvard

What early season event are you looking forward to the most?

2010-08-25T00:12:24Z

Here is a good rundown of all the early season events: Link

Edit: The links are on this site as well: Tournaments and Conference challenges.

What ones are you looking forward to the most?

Here are a few that pop out at me:

- 2K Classic: Pitt, Maryland, Illinois, Texas: Pitt has the makings of a top 25 team, while we will be able to get an early gauge on the other three teams.

- CBE Classic: Defending champ Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Marquette: This could be the best event with Duke facing some stiff competition early in their title defense.

- Preseason NIT- VIllanova, Wake Forest, UCLA, Tennessee: Not much here to get too excited about, but the fact that the early games count could provide some upsets.

- Maui Invitational: The possible second round matchup between Kentucky and Washington will be talked about at length leading up to this tournament and could provide early fireworks.

- ACC/Big 10 Challenge: The Big 10 won for the first time last season, can they pull it off again?

Here is a good rundown of all the early season events: Link

Edit: The links are on this site as well: Tournaments and Conference challenges.

What ones are you looking forward to the most?

Here are a few that pop out at me:

- 2K Classic: Pitt, Maryland, Illinois, Texas: Pitt has the makings of a top 25 team, while we will be able to get an early gauge on the other three teams.

- CBE Classic: Defending champ Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Marquette: This could be the best event with Duke facing some stiff competition early in their title defense.

- Preseason NIT- VIllanova, Wake Forest, UCLA, Tennessee: Not much here to get too excited about, but the fact that the early games count could provide some upsets.

- Maui Invitational: The possible second round matchup between Kentucky and Washington will be talked about at length leading up to this tournament and could provide early fireworks.

- ACC/Big 10 Challenge: The Big 10 won for the first time last season, can they pull it off again?

Poll

What early season event are you looking forward to the most?

CBE Classic

1 votes

2K Sports Classic

0 votes

Preaseason NIT

1 votes

Maui Invitational

0 votes

ACC/Big 10 Challenge

0 votes

Other

0 votes

2 votes | Poll has closed

Doing Some Advance Bracket Scouting

2010-03-12T22:34:12Z

Who doesn't love hearing this?

Ahh, March Madness is finally here, and it's almost time for everyone to start filling out their brackets! Everyone has their own way of doing it, and most of the time it doesn't work too well, but usually picking the Final Four correctly, and definitely picking the champion correctly will get you close to the money in a lot of bracket pools.

So, what gives? The NCAA tournament has been going on for 25 years in the 64-team (or 64+1 team) format. Some stat geek had to have crunched the numbers and given us something to work with!

It turns out, that is the case. One such man is Pete Tiernan who cranks out tons of articles every year around this time jam packed with information. He does offer one huge caveat though:

Of course, every March Madness forecasting strategy should come with a gigantic disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Each tournament manages to violate rules that were once considered ironclad.

But enough of that, let's jump into the stats!

Who doesn't love hearing this?

So, what gives? The NCAA tournament has been going on for 25 years in the 64-team (or 64+1 team) format. Some stat geek had to have crunched the numbers and given us something to work with!

It turns out, that is the case. One such man is Pete Tiernan who cranks out tons of articles every year around this time jam packed with information. He does offer one huge caveat though:

Of course, every March Madness forecasting strategy should come with a gigantic disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Each tournament manages to violate rules that were once considered ironclad.

But enough of that, let's jump into the stats!

Pete Tiernan's "Crown Your Tourney Champion"

The last 21 champions in a row, and 23/25 champions have possessed the following attributes:

Seeded 1, 2, 3, or 4 (obviously we won't know this for a few days)
Score at least 76 ppg
Win on average by at least 10 points

The teams who currently possess such attributes? Well, ignoring the seeding requirements, those teams are (through games of 3/11): New Mexico, Sam Houston State, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Texas, Xavier, Missouri, Marshall, Maryland, Baylor, St. Mary's (CA), Kentucky, Syracuse, Murray State, Duke, Kansas, and BYU. I've also crossed out the teams that basically have no chance of scoring a top seed.

This leaves us with 13 teams. Not exactly narrowing it down, is it? Well, keep that group in mind, because on average 2.83 of those teams per tournament will be making it to the Final Four. Obviously, take out any one of them that don't get the top seeds, but that's a pretty solid group to start with.

Additionally, the vast majority of the champions had gone to the tournament the previous year. This qualification eliminates New Mexico, Kansas State, Baylor, and Kentucky. That whittles us down to 10 teams.

You can whittle it down even more by upping the scoring and scoring margin requirements and adding a few more. 17 of the past 19, and 18 of 25 champions overall have had the following requirements:

Score at least 77 ppg
Outscore opponents on average by at least 11 points
Come from the ACC, Big East, Big 12, Big 10, SEC, or Pac 10.
Have a coach who has been to the tourney at least 5 times.

This will eliminate Gonzaga, Xavier, BYU, and Missouri and leave you with 6 legit contenders this season that based on overall tournament history have about a 72% chance of winning the tournament (and based on recent trends about a 89% chance). Those teams are: Texas, Maryland, Syracuse, Kentucky, Duke and Kansas. However, I will make a caveat that based on Texas' recent collapse (and thus likely not getting a top 4 seed) you could probably eliminate them. Maryland will be close to a 4 seed and it will depend on their ACC tournament performance probably.

Pete Tiernan adds a few more juicy stats in another article, saying that all but one tourney champ has never lost 2 or more games in a row, and all but two have gone into the tournament winning at least 7 of their last 10 games.

This eliminates Syracuse and Maryland, and leaves us with a trio of solid picks - Kentucky, Duke and Kansas. Of course this doesn't mean that the champion will definitively be one of those three teams, but there is a high statistical likelihood that it will be, at least if the past is any indication.

Other Encouraging Signs

Another quote from Pete Tiernan before we jump into something else:

The 111 teams with a pre-tourney scoring margin above 15 points per game won nearly 48 games more than seed projections. That works out to a weighty +.429 PASE-about half a game per tourney better than expectations. Perhaps even more impressively, 41 of these 111 squads (37 percent) have reached the Final Four and 12 (11 percent) have won the tourney. Both of these percentages are the highest for any single attribute we examined.

That only begins to explain the importance of victory margin in foretelling tourney overachievement. Consider this: of the top eight attributes I studied, four of them related to scoring margin. Teams that beat opponents by more than 14, 13 and 12 points all had impressive PASE values that would have landed them in the chart above. However, I elected not to repeat similar attributes.

The only two teams of the "contending five" that I isolated that have a scoring margin greater than 15 ppg were Kansas and Duke, for what it's worth. Also, considering that performance above seed expectation (PASE) is somewhat important in forecasting other games correctly, consider that the only other two teams with a >15 ppg scoring margin are BYU and Murray State. Take note of them as possible spoilers.

Jumping to Adjusted Scoring Margin

Here is an excerpt for something I wrote for the blog I write for (Crimson and Cream Machine) last year:

Another interesting metric for tournament performance, and for performance overall is adjusted scoring margin (ASM) that ESPN's Joe Lunardi uses in his bracketology segments. Adjusted scoring margin is a part of their insider content, so I won't give away the rankings, but I'm sure some of you are wondering what ASM is. It is the sum of two components:

The number of ppg a team scores above/below the average ppg allowed by all of it's opponents combined. Basically, if a team doesn't score many points per game, but they play in a conference with great defense, it will take that into account.

Basically the opposite of the above concept to take into account a team's defensive prowess.

Therefore this tends to be a little bit better than simply looking at scoring margin. I'm not sure how it's been in recent years, but it has a history of success. The Florida Gators of 2000 had the 2nd highest ASM in the nation, but were a 5-seed. They got to the Final Four.

The top 5 in ASM right now, in order, are: Kansas, Duke, Syracuse, BYU, and Kentucky. Do the teams sound familiar? The fact that both of these proven tournament metrics are turning up the same teams consistently is definitely something to take note of!

Looking for cinderellas? The same philosophy can apply. BYU keeps turning up and they are projected to be a 5 seed in Chris' latest bracket. Murray State is an interesting team as they are in the top 4 nationally in scoring margin and they are projected to be a 13 seed, so there's a potential lead on a big upset. Maryland also has a lot of good attributes and they are projected to be a 5 seed like BYU. They are #7 nationally in ASM, so nothing to sneeze at.

Does ASM identify any other potential sleepers? Here they are with ASM rank followed by seed projection by Chris in parentheses: Wisconsin (8, 4-seed), Utah State (10, 10-seed), Baylor (11, 5-seed), Missouri (11, 10-seed).

So, in summary, if you're looking for a tournament champion, I'd zero in on Kansas or Duke. At least that's what the statistics are telling us.

early march madness picks

2009-12-27T02:35:14Z

based on games so far would the following teams be in the tourney. (if your team is not in here and you would like me to add it then leave a comment to me. Also if you want say if in your opinion the team would be in our Out.

First Up

Cal 6-4

Wins- Murray St Detroit Jacksonville Princeton Iowa St Pacific

Losses- #6Syracuse #18Ohio St #12 New Mexico #1 Kanas

UCLA

4-7

Wins Cal St bakersfeild Pepperdine Colarado St New Mexico St

Losses Cal St Fullerton Portland Butler Long Beach St Kanas Missisipi st Notre Dame

OUT

Portland 7-4

Wins Eastern Washington Seattle Oregon UCLA Minasota Denver Idaho

Losses West Virgina Portland St Idaho

OUT

Oklahoma St 10-1

Wins Seattle Southern North Texas Prairie View A&M Bradley Utah UTSA Arkansas Pine Bluff Stanford La Salle

Losses Tulsa

First Up

Cal 6-4

Wins- Murray St Detroit Jacksonville Princeton Iowa St Pacific

Losses- #6Syracuse #18Ohio St #12 New Mexico #1 Kanas

UCLA

4-7

Wins Cal St bakersfeild Pepperdine Colarado St New Mexico St

Losses Cal St Fullerton Portland Butler Long Beach St Kanas Missisipi st Notre Dame

OUT

Portland 7-4

Wins Eastern Washington Seattle Oregon UCLA Minasota Denver Idaho

Losses West Virgina Portland St Idaho

OUT

Oklahoma St 10-1

Wins Seattle Southern North Texas Prairie View A&M Bradley Utah UTSA Arkansas Pine Bluff Stanford La Salle

Losses Tulsa