People on twitter know that I love college hockey and my Fighting Sioux... my name is Matthew (and my screen name is @HokieGuru on Twitter).

Congratulations to the University of Minnesota - Duluth who defeated Yale today by the score of 5-3 in the East Regional Final.  In the night cap, the University of Michigan was victorious over Colorado College 2-1.  Both teams punched their tickets to the 2011 Frozen Four in the Twin Cities.  That leaves two bids left... so...

On Sunday, March 27, 2011, North Dakota (who defeated RPI 6-0) takes on Denver (who defeated Western Michigan 3-2 in 2 OTs) in the Midwest Regional Final at 5:30 PM EST (the game is on ESPNU-HD or ESPN3.com). 

Also on Sunday, Notre Dame (who defeated Merrimack 4-3 in OT) takes on New Hampshire (who beat Miami 3-1) in the Northeast Regional Final at 8 PM EST (the game is also on ESPNU-HD or ESPN3.com).

These are nice Sunday night viewing options :)

Take care... enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Much has been alleged of the Big (L)East's demise as a postseason basketball power. With 11 teams selected to the NCAA tournament, bracket-pickers expected impressive results, only to find that the conference may not be what Dennis Green thought they were. But was this a legendary case of choking, or a bit of regression to reality?

First, let's state truths and assumptions:

1. The Big East was over-hyped the day before the tournament started. That wasn't its fault. Big East teams just played the games on their schedule, and sports media and fans in the Northeast took it from there.
2. Too much emphasis is placed on conference strength instead of team strength. Team strength and individual match-ups affect game outcomes. Conference strength is necessarily correlated, but not directly involved in who wins.
3. One team (Villanova) made the tournament because it's in the Big East. The Wildcats' body of work was solid, but let's be honest enough to admit that an Atlantic 10 team with a similar record and the same end-of-season fall from glory would be in the NIT. Villanova faceplanted against Big East teams down the stretch, so how could it be representative of the conference's power? Villanova was dancing because of conference hype, which added to irrationally high expectations.
4. At least 2 Big East teams weren't going to make the Sweet 16, because they were in bracket sections where only one could advance (see the Marquette-Syracuse and Cincinnati-UConn games).

That leaves us with 8 (or 9, depending on your opinion of Villanova) potential Sweet 16 teams from the Big East. The first two rounds eliminate 3/4 of the field, and if we assume complete parity as a method of ignoring conference hype, then the Big East would get 2 teams into the Sweet 16...which happened.

Are you already drafting a comment about my idiotic assumption of parity? Okay, fine - the Big East is 50% better than the average NCAA basketball conference. Read that again - it's an outlandish figure that isn't even close to being true, but for the sake of counterargument, that means the Big East should have gotten 3 teams into the Sweet 16 instead of 2...so they were 1 team short. Postseason disaster, really?

Of course, the astute reader could argue in reverse and say that the Big East placed 2 teams in the Sweet 16 precisely because they got 2 second round games where a Big East team was guaranteed to advance, and otherwise could have placed no teams at all. That, unfortunately, will forever be an arguable point because we rarely get to see counterfactuals in sports.

The Big East was the best conference in basketball, but that doesn't mean each of its teams are better than each team they could play in the NCAA tournament. Match-ups are crucial, and a strong team from a stout conference can get stomped by a hot hand it can't defend (Georgetown will tell you about that).

Bet against the Big East next March. I'm not afraid to win your money.

Here are the "guaranteed" NCAA picks; that is, "guaranteed" to be revised by Saturday.

Continue reading this post »

Hello, I decided to try and pick all 37 at large teams this year. Here they are:

Here is a good rundown of all the early season events: Link

Edit: The links are on this site as well: Tournaments and Conference challenges.

What ones are you looking forward to the most?

Here are a few that pop out at me:

- 2K Classic: Pitt, Maryland, Illinois, Texas: Pitt has the makings of a top 25 team, while we will be able to get an early gauge on the other three teams.

- CBE Classic: Defending champ Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas State, Marquette: This could be the best event with Duke facing some stiff competition early in their title defense.

- Preseason NIT- VIllanova, Wake Forest, UCLA, Tennessee: Not much here to get too excited about, but the fact that the early games count could provide some upsets.

- Maui Invitational: The possible second round matchup between Kentucky and Washington will be talked about at length leading up to this tournament and could provide early fireworks.

- ACC/Big 10 Challenge: The Big 10 won for the first time last season, can they pull it off again?

Who doesn't love hearing this?

Ahh, March Madness is finally here, and it's almost time for everyone to start filling out their brackets!  Everyone has their own way of doing it, and most of the time it doesn't work too well, but usually picking the Final Four correctly, and definitely picking the champion correctly will get you close to the money in a lot of bracket pools.

So, what gives? The NCAA tournament has been going on for 25 years in the 64-team (or 64+1 team) format. Some stat geek had to have crunched the numbers and given us something to work with!

It turns out, that is the case. One such man is Pete Tiernan who cranks out tons of articles every year around this time jam packed with information.  He does offer one huge caveat though:

Of course, every March Madness forecasting strategy should come with a gigantic disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Each tournament manages to violate rules that were once considered ironclad. 

But enough of that, let's jump into the stats!

Continue reading this post »

based on games so far would the following teams be in the tourney. (if your team is not in here and you would like me to add it then leave a comment to me. Also if you want say if in your opinion the team would be in our Out.

First Up

Cal 6-4

Wins-  Murray St  Detroit  Jacksonville Princeton Iowa St Pacific

Losses-  #6Syracuse #18Ohio St #12 New Mexico #1 Kanas

IN

UCLA

4-7

Wins Cal St bakersfeild Pepperdine Colarado St New Mexico St

Losses Cal St Fullerton Portland Butler Long Beach St Kanas Missisipi st Notre Dame

OUT

Portland 7-4

Wins Eastern Washington Seattle Oregon UCLA Minasota Denver Idaho

Losses West Virgina Portland St Idaho

OUT

Oklahoma St 10-1

Wins Seattle Southern North Texas Prairie View A&M Bradley Utah UTSA Arkansas Pine Bluff Stanford La Salle

Losses Tulsa

IN

Now that we're about a third of the way through the College Basketball season, I'm starting to focus more on the season and the NCAA Tournament. Up to now, the coverage is still dominated by preseason expectations for the most part, and a lot of coverage is being given to the bowl games.

Below is a list of teams that I'm curious to see where they end up. It's still early and there's still the conference play to go, so anything can still happen at this point. Just some teams that have caught my eye and am curious to see where they go:

1. William & Mary (7-2) - currently have an RPI of 16. Wins against Richmond, @ Wake Forest, and against VCU have caught my eye. They also played close to a suprisingly good Harvard, and also had a respectible showing @ UConn. One of only a handful of teams in their history to never go dancing, but that makes watching this team that much more fun. Old Dominion looks to be the team to beat in the CAA, but having 3 contenders makes for an interesting conference tournament.
   
2. Southern Mississippi (7-1) - Is Larry Eustachy finally back? Hard to say. The RPI of 11 stands out, but it's too early.They haven't played much in terms of quality opponents yet, but they did only lose by 2 @ Ole Miss, a team that is likely going dancing this year. They should be right up there in the CUSA with Tulsa and Memphis. If that's the case, they're going dancing.
   
3. Missouri State (10-0) - Where did these guys come from? I live in Central Iowa, a place close to a lot of The Valley teams, and I hadn't heard anything about these guys. Just talk about UNI and Creighton. They could sneak in there at the top. I'm curious to see how they play against UNI and Wichita State this year. If they can split with both teams, they could very well get that top seed in The Valley Tournament.
4. Harvard (7-2) - I'm not going to sit here and pretend that I follow Ivy League basketball closely, because I don't. The Ivy League is unique in that they get an automatic bid, but have no conference tournament. Cornell is the favorite to win the league, but checking Ken Pomeroy's most recent basketball projections show Harvard has a good chance to be right in the mix to win the Ivy League and make their first NCAA Tournament Apperance since 1946.
5. Rhode Island (9-1) - The A10 is going to be tough yet again this year. Hard to really think of them as a "mid-major" when it comes to basketball. They are off to a good start, and playing teams like Xavier, Charlotte, Temple, Dayton, Richmond, and George Washington is a two-edged sword. It's the kind of league where you can pick up a bunch of quality wins, but you can also bury yourself.
6. Minnesota (8-3) - After going through a rough patch at the end of November/beginning of December, losing to Portland, Texas A&M, and Miami (FL), lots of people were getting down on the team. I think the Gophers are poised enough to bounce back. When Big 10 play starts in about a week or so, I think they will start to separate themselves.
7. Xavier (6-4) - At first glance, you might say to yourself "wow, Xavier isn't themselves this year". I know I did. But then you look at the schedule and see that they lost to Marquette and Baylor on neutral sites, and @ K-State, those are legit losses. Plus their 4th loss was kind of flukey as I think they got a screwed a little @ Butler. They have plenty of time to enchance their resume though. They've got a road game at Wake Forest on the schedule coming up soon, and they're playing in a tough A10.
8. Northwestern (9-1) - After losing Coble and Ryan, the sexy pick to make the NCAA Tournament seemed to be done. But then, stuff happened. Now the Wildcats have jumped to a 9-1 start, losing only to Butler, and collecting decent wins against Notre Dame, Iowa State, and Stanford. Ken Pomeroy currently has the Wildcats winning 21 games, including going 9-9 in the Big 10. Last year, Michigan and Minnesota both got in with 9-9 records and 20+ wins, so could this finally be their year? Either way, they are much better than I thought they would be and have a great coach in Bill Carmody
9. Oklahoma (8-3) - To start the year, many were excited about this team, and they have been disappointing, losing to VCU, San Diego, and Houston. Now, all three of those teams are actually pretty solid, but they weren't that close of games. Ken Pomeroy currently has the Sooners going 14-16 overall with a 4-12 league record. I don't know if they will be that bad, but it's an interesting story. I would think with guys like Tiny Gallon and Willie Warren, this team would find their way to the middle of the pack in the Big 12, but with the Big 12 looking so deep, maybe not? That's why I'm watching them!
10. Texas Tech (9-1) - I had these guys picked for last in the Big 12, and they have suprised me with their start. They did get a nice home win against Washington, but just lost @ Wichita St. Those are the only two teams they have played with a pulse, and I think the Red Raiders are a little bit of paper tigers still at this point. Over the next few weeks, their games @ New Mexico, UTEP, and @Oklahoma State will tell me a more about this team.
11. Iowa State (8-3) - Last and hopefully not least. My team. I watch this team closely regardless as I'm a season ticket holder, but I had expectations for this team prior to the season. Losses to Northwestern, UNI, and Cal have been tough, but the team has the potential to come around. Part of me thinks that a team of Craig Brackins and Marquis Gilstrap is too talented to not go dancing, but the other part of me realizes that ISU doesn't have a marquee game and is playing in the buzzsaw of the Big 12. With games against Houston, Duke, Texas, Texas Tech, and Kansas over the next month or so, January is going to be make-or-break for the Cyclones.

So in searching through the blogs on SB Nation, I came across "Blogging the Bracket", a blog devoted to College Basketball.  Once I saw this, I thought to myself, " I need to be a part of this."  And here we are.  I really appreciate the coverage this blog gives to all teams with a chance to make it to the field of 64.

But enough brown nosing, it's time to get to the point.  This topic has probably bean beaten to death, and I haven't looked through the site enough, but I have a question.  Are "The Calipari Years" in Kentucky going to be as dominant as I suspect?  I mean, he's turning in one of the best recruiting classes in the nation in the span of about a month or two.  When he has a couple tourney appearances under his belt there, can they be stopped?... Maybe I'm just clueless, but this seems somewhat interesting to me.  Thank you for your time.

I realize that CBS cuts in and out of games all the time to show others from around the country, but I was just wondering if anyone knew if there was a guide to which games were going to be the prominently featured matchups (the ones that were going to get most of the air time)? A website/TV guide type deal would be great...Thanks in advance, and Go Marquette!

Also, I assume there isn't a way to watch any game live on the internet for free, but if someone could prove me wrong that'd be awesome