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The 2010 Bracketology Post-Mortem (Verdict: Needs Improvement)

As I was busy writing a reaction piece for SB Nation last night, I didn't get to do a proper post-mortem of my performance. After looking things over, I didn't perform quite as well as last year, particularly in terms of seeding, something I really focused on this year.

I got 33 of 34 at-larges correct, which is one more than I was expecting. Heading into Sunday, I figured this would be a year when the Committee would try to teach teams a lesson in a creative way. Whether they actually did that is up for debate. UTEP over Virginia Tech doesn't seem terrible creative to me. William & Mary in for the Hokies would've made me take notice.

Seeding-wise, the news wasn't so good. I only got 24 of 65 seeds correct. As a perfectionist, I can only say that's terrible. Making matters worse, I didn't get a single seed right between lines 6 and 9. And I only got one 5 and one 10 right. 

I did place 32 teams within one line of their correct seed, which is acceptable, given the Committee has the flexibility to move teams up or down a line to balance the bracket out.

Seven teams were within two lines, and one (Cal) was off by three. I took the Jay Bilas approach when it came to the Golden Bears. I felt their profile sans Pac-10 regular season and tournament crowns was one better suited for the 11 line instead of the 8, even taking the Theo Robertson injury into account.

Here's how I did compared to the last four years.

Correctly Selected At-Large Teams
33 of 34: 2009 and 2010
34 of 34: 2008
32 of 34: 2006 and 2007

Correctly Seeded
24 of 65: 2010
31 of 65: 2009
36 of 65: 2008
23 of 65: 2007
28 of 65: 2006 

Off By One LIne
32 of 65: 2010
22 of 65: 2009 and 2008
25 of 65: 2007
19 of 65: 2006

Off By Two Lines
7 of 65: 2010
9 of 65: 2009
4 of 65: 2008
12 of 65:2007
13 of 65: 2006

Off By Three Or More Lines
1 of 65: 2010
2 of 65: 2009
3 of 65: 2008
4 of 65: 2007
6 of 65: 2006

For more bracketology reaction, check out Andrew Sharp's Bracketology: FAIL and Adam Jacobi's critique of mid-major seeding

I'll be back tomorrow with a viewer's guide of sorts.

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here are some games i like.

nmsu getting +14 vs michigan state. the game is in spokane and msu is defensive minded. tom izzo would rest his players for the next round if they even get up that much.

florida getting +4.5 point from byu. i do like byu to win a close game but they have lost 7 first round games in the ncaa tournament.

utah state getting +3.5 from texas am. i think usu can win this game b/c they finally get a resrt after that 17 game winning strek then the loss to nmsu b/c their coach was dumb and did not rest his players vs la. tech.

vermont getting +18 points vs a very thin syracuse team. i’m not sure if they guy is even playing in the first round and if he does he won’t be at full strength. their coach would definitley rest their players if they got up by 20 with 5 minutes to go.

i’ll have more tomorrow.

I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"

by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 16, 2010 3:34 PM EDT reply actions  

the syracuse player is the second best player on his team.

I'm all about covering the spread and moneylines. I was building a house, I don't deserve this, deserves have nothing to do with it. Bang. "Unforgiven" I drink your milkshake. I drink it up! "There Will BE Blood"

by wolfmanshowlforever on Mar 16, 2010 3:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Chris you did a great job all year

I wouldn’t beat yourself up too much on the seeding. Everyone’s confused about the seeding this year, so I’m not sure how much there’s to learn from something no one saw coming.

anyway, was a pleasure to follow along all year.

You ain't hurt...

by Peter Bean on Mar 16, 2010 3:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Thanks Peter!

Next year, I think I’m going to be a bit more strategic in my thinking (even though I tried to be this time around), as it seems like the complaints about Committee member biases and TV considerations are louder than ever.

Visit bloggingthebracket.com, SBNation's bracketology/CBB rambling site!

by Chris Dobbertean on Mar 18, 2010 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

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