Surveying The Bubble: February 12, 2010
by Chris Dobbertean on Feb 12, 2010 6:00 PM EST
in Bubble Talk
6 comments
Since Selection Sunday is a little more than four weeks away, I wanted to take a moment (actually a few) to share with you how I see the field shaping up.
One-Bid Only
There are 15 conferences that fit in this category: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, and Sun Belt.
Shot At Two
Right now, I think 9 conferences have a shot at grabbing two spots. For each of these, I've listed the team who has the auto bid as of right now. While I consider three of these teams locks, all of them have at least a slight at-large hopes, so I'll discuss them in more detail later.
Colonial: Northeastern
C-USA: UTEP
Horizon: Butler (lock)
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa (lock)
Pacific-10: California
West Coast: Gonzaga (lock)
Western Athletic: Utah State
Locks
These are the 18 teams from the multi-bid leagues that I would consider locks for the Tournament at this point.
ACC: Duke
A-10: Temple
Big East: Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Big 12: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State
Mountain West: BYU, New Mexico
SEC: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Near Locks
These are the 9 teams that are very close to being locked into the field.
ACC: Georgia Tech, Wake Forest
A-10: Rhode Island
Big East: Pittsburgh
Big Ten: Illinois
Big 12: Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri
MWC: UNLV
After the jump, I'll take at the big group that's fighting for the remaining spots.
Here's the relatively large group of teams that I currently have under consideration. For each, I've listed reasons why the team should and shouldn't be included in the field, along with their remaining regular season games.
I've included many of the factors the Committee looks at when comparing teams.
- Record
- RPI
- Non-conference RPI: How does the strength of a team's non-league schedule compare to its conference slate.
- Road/Neutral Record: Since you're not likely to play Tournament games close to home when you're a bubble team.
- Record vs. the RPI Top 50 and 100: As a bubble team, these are crucial, as wins against the top 50 and 100 show you could possibly gain a win against a team in the field.
- Record vs. teams rated 101+ in the RPI: Did you beat the teams you were supposed to defeat?
- Average RPI Loss: The lower the better, as a higher average loss may indicate that a team struggled against inferior competition.
- Average RPI Win: This number is going to typically be high, as you are going to face some bad teams. It just should never be too high.
- Key wins and losses and where they took place (home, semi-home, neutral, semi-away, away)
Keep in mind, however, that I feel that the eye test is the best judge of Tourney-worthiness.
Note that 7 of the teams on this list -- Cal, Cornell, Northeastern, Richmond, Siena, UTEP, and Utah State -- would all hold auto bids in a current bracket. That means, when you add in the auto bids, locks, and almost-locks from above, 52 teams are accounted for. That leaves just 13 bubble spots.
As the last few weeks of the season play out, I'll talk more about this information, but for right now, I just want to share it with you.
Data is from Crashing The Dance.
| Team | The Case For | The Case Against | Remaining Games |
| UAB |
|
|
2/13 Marshall 2/17 @Southern Miss 2/20 Houston 2/24 @UCF 2/27 Tulane 3/3 Memphis 3/6@UTEP |
| Arizona State |
|
|
2/13 Oregon 2/21 @Arizona 2/25 @Stanford 2/27 @Cal 3/4 USC 3/6 UCLA |
| California |
|
|
2/13 Washington State 2/18 @Oregon State 2/20 @Oregon 2/25 Arizona 2/27 Arizona State 3/6 @Stanford |
| Charlotte |
|
|
2/17 Duquesne 2/20 Xavier 2/24 St. Joseph's 2/27 @Geo. Washington 3/3 @Rhode Island 3/6 Richmond |
| Cincinnati |
|
|
2/13 @UConn 2/16 @USF 2/21 Marquette 2/24 DePaul 2/27 @West Virginia 3/2 Villanova 3/6 @Georgetown |
| Clemson |
|
|
2/13 Miami |
| Connecticut |
|
|
2/13 Cincinnati |
| Cornell |
|
|
2/12 @Penn 2/13 @Princeton 2/19 @Harvard 2/20 @Dartmouth 2/26 Princeton 2/27 Penn 3/5 @Brown 3/6 @Yale |
| Dayton |
|
|
2/13 @St. Louis 2/18 La Salle 2/21 @Duquesne 2/24 @Temple 2/27 UMass 3/4 @Richmond 3/6 St. Louis |
| Florida |
|
|
2/13 Xavier 2/18 Auburn 2/20 @Mississippi 2/23 Tennessee 2/27 @Georgia 3/2 Vanderbilt 3/7 @Kentucky |
| Florida State |
|
|
2/14 Boston College 2/17 @Virginia 2/24 @North Carolina 2/28 Clemson 3/3 Wake Forest 3/6 @Miami |
| Louisiana Tech |
|
|
2/13 Hawai'i 2/17 @Utah State 2/20 @Northeastern 2/25 Boise State 2/27 Idaho 3/4 @Fresno State 3/6 @Nevada |
| Louisville |
|
|
2/14 @Syracuse 2/17 Notre Dame 2/20 @DePaul 2/23 Georgetown 2/28 @UConn 3/2 @Marquette 3/6 Syracuse |
| Marquette |
|
|
2/13 USF 2/18 Pitt 2/21 @Cincinnati 2/24 @St. John's 2/28 @Seton Hall 3/2 Louisville 3/6 Notre Dame |
| Maryland |
|
|
2/13 @Duke 2/15 Virginia 2/17 @NC State 2/20 Georgia Tech 2/24 Clemson 2/27 @Virginia Tech 3/3 Duke 3/6 @Virginia |
| Memphis |
|
|
2/13 @Tulsa 2/17 @Tulane 2/20 SMU 2/24 @Houston 2/27 Southern Miss 3/3 @UAB 3/6 Tulsa |
| Miami |
|
|
2/13 @Clemson 2/17 Duke 2/23 Virginia 2/27 NC State 3/2 @UNC 3/6 Florida State |
| Minnesota |
|
|
2/14 @Northwestern 2/18 Wisconsin 2/20 Indiana 2/24 Purdue 2/27 @Illinois 3/3 @Michigan 3/7 Iowa |
| Mississippi |
|
|
2/18 Vanderbilt 2/20 Florida 2/24 Auburn 2/27 @Alabama 3/4 LSU 3/6 @Arkansas |
| Mississippi State |
|
|
2/13 Auburn 2/16 Kentucky 2/20 @LSU 2/24 Alabama 2/27 @South Carolina 3/3 @Auburn 3/6 Tennessee |
| North Carolina |
|
|
2/13 NC State 2/16 @Georgia Tech 2/20 @BC 2/24 Florida State 2/27 @Wake Forest 3/2 Miami 3/6 @Duke |
| Northeastern |
|
|
2/13 @William & Mary 2/16 @UNC Wilmington 2/20 Louisiana Tech 2/23 Hofstra 2/27 @George Mason |
| Northwestern |
|
|
2/14 Minnesota 2/17 Penn State 2/21 @Wisconsin 2/25 Iowa 2/28 @Penn State 3/3 Chicago State 3/6 @Indiana |
| Notre Dame |
|
|
2/14 St. John's |
| Oklahoma State |
|
|
2/13 Oklahoma 2/17 @Iowa State 2/20 Baylor 2/24 @Texas 2/27 Kansas 3/3 @Texas A&M 3/6 Nebraska |
| Old Dominion |
|
|
2/13 George Mason 2/16 Towson 2/19 @Northern Iowa 2/23 @Georgia State 2/27 VCU |
| Richmond |
|
|
2/13 @St. Bonaventure 2/17 Fordham 2/20 Geo. Washington 2/28 @Xavier 3/4 Dayton 3/6 @Charlotte |
| St. Louis |
|
|
2/13 Dayton 2/17 Rhode Island 2/21 @UMass 2/24 Xavier 2/27 Duquesne 3/3 Temple 3/6 @Dayton |
| St. Mary's |
|
|
2/13 @Portland 2/18 @San Diego 2/25 Pepperdine 2/27 Loyola Marymount |
| San Diego State |
|
|
2/13 UNLV 2/16 @TCU 2/20 Utah 2/24 @BYU 3/3 Colorado State 3/6 @Air Force |
| Seton Hall |
|
|
2/14 DePaul 2/17 @St. John's 2/20 @West Virginia 2/23 Rutgers 2/28 Marquette 3/4 @Rutgers 3/6 @Providence |
| Siena |
|
|
2/12 @Niagara 2/14 @Canisius 2/20 @Butler 2/26 @Rider 2/28 Marist |
| South Carolina |
|
|
2/13 @Georgia 2/16 @Arkansas 2/20 Tennessee 2/25 @Kentucky 2/27 Mississippi State 3/3 Alabama 3/6 @Vanderbilt |
| South Florida |
|
|
2/13 @Marquette 2/16 Cincinnati 2/20 St. John's 2/24 @Villanova 2/27 Providence 3/2 @DePaul 3/6 UConn |
| UTEP |
|
|
2/13 East Carolina 2/20 @Tulsa 2/24 @Southern Miss 2/27 Rice 3/2 @Marshall 3/6 UAB |
| Texas Tech |
|
|
2/13 Texas A&M 2/16 @Baylor 2/20 Texas 2/23 Kansas State 2/27 @Nebraska 3/2 Baylor 3/6 @Colorado |
| Tulsa |
|
|
2/13 Memphis 2/17 @Marshall 2/20 UTEP 2/25 @Duke 2/27 @East Carolina 3/3 SMU 3/6 @Memphis |
| Utah State |
|
|
2/13 @San Jose State 2/17 Louisiana Tech 2/20 Wichita State 2/25 @Hawai'i 3/1 Fresno State 3/6 New Mexico State |
| Virginia |
|
|
2/13 @Virginia Tech 2/15 @Maryland 2/17 Florida State 2/20 @Clemson 2/23 @Miami 2/28 Duke 3/2 @BC 3/6 Maryland |
| VCU |
|
|
2/13 @James Madison 2/16 Drexel 2/20 Akron 2/24 James Madison 2/27 @Old Dominion |
| Virginia Tech |
|
|
2/13 Virginia 2/16 Wake Forest 2/21 @Duke 2/24 @BC 2/27 Maryland 3/3 NC State 3/6 @Georgia Tech |
| Washington |
|
|
2/13 @Stanford 2/18 USC 2/20 UCLA 2/27 @Washington State 3/4 @Oregon 3/6 @Oregon State |
| Wichita State |
|
|
2/14 Missouri State 2/17 Evansville 2/20 @Utah State 2/24 @Bradley 2/27 Southern Illinois |
| William & Mary |
|
|
2/13 Northeastern 2/16 @George Mason 2/19 @Iona 2/24 Towson 2/27 @UNC Wilmington |
| Xavier |
|
|
2/13 @Florida 2/17 St. Joseph's 2/20 @Charlotte 2/24 @St. Louis 2/28 Richmond 3/3 @Fordham 3/6 St. Bonaventure |
Now that you see the kind of data I look at, I'm curious to know your thoughts. What teams from this list? What teams don't? Who do you think has the chance to make a run over the past few weeks?
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Utah State
According to your list, the sweep of Nevada is something for the committee to consider AGAINST the Aggies..??
Surely that must be a mis-print
It indeed is
I’ll adjust that. Thanks.
Visit bloggingthebracket.com, SBNation's bracketology/CBB rambling site!
by Chris Dobbertean on Feb 13, 2010 9:23 AM EST up reply actions
Hate to be a stickler, but since this is a discussion...
I wanted to ask you about ASU briefly. In your case against, you put “neutral site loss to Duke.” I have to ask, does that really hurt ASU? I would agree if it was a blowout, but for the most part it was a closely contested game in Madison Square Garden.
I’m just trying to get a general feel for the case against column. If you are implying that losing to Duke is a quality loss, then I will accept that. In order to make this more fair, in Cornell’s “case against” you list a road loss to Kansas. If that is a case against, then Cornell is a lock.
Not trying to call you out, Chris. Just trying to get a feel for your evaluation methods and what is being looked at from your perspective. All in all, this was a great post and I look forward to your next update.
House Of Sparky: An Arizona State Sun Devils blog
You bring up a good point, Cory. I consider it only a part of “the case against” as it was an opportunity lost for the Sun Devils. However, since I watched that game (much like KU-Cornell), I know how well ASU played in that one.
If anything, there probably should be an “Other” column to reflect info like this (losses that aren’t really bad/wins that aren’t necessarily good). That’s something I can add in for my next post, now that I have the whole making a table HTML figured out.
Visit bloggingthebracket.com, SBNation's bracketology/CBB rambling site!
by Chris Dobbertean on Feb 13, 2010 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
Great stuff, man. Enjoyed reading it. Regarding VT, now that they’re 20-4 after last night’s win at home vs UVA, what do you think they need to do in their last six ACC games to wrap up a bid.
Only need to win out at home?
Lock it up with a win at Duke?
They really don’t have a “bad” loss, but also don’t have a signature win. I’m guessing it’s their average RPI win that is their biggest knock?
Winning out at home would do it...
if they were able to steal one in Durham, that would be huge. But it would take a collapse of epic proportions to keep them out right now, especially with how the mid-major bubble teams played this weekend.
Visit bloggingthebracket.com, SBNation's bracketology/CBB rambling site!
by Chris Dobbertean on Feb 14, 2010 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
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