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Updated Bracket and Numbers Game - 1 a.m.-ish on Selection Sunday

Editor's note - I've updated the bracket files to reflect the result of the Big West final.  I've also corrected a couple of math/spelling errors that are easier to catch at 10 a.m., as opposed to 1 a.m. - C.D.

Here's the latest bracket, updated through all games today, except for the Big West final.  (Seed List, Trends)

There aren't a ton of changes, so I'll run through them quickly before looking at the numbers.

  • Louisville moves up to the number one overall seed.  I can't argue with winning both the Big East regular season and tournament championships.
  • Missouri moves up enough on the 3 line after winning the Big 12 to get to a more advantageous site, Minneapolis.
  • Syracuse moves up to a 3, even with the loss in the Big East final.  Wake Forest drops to a 4, though they both remain in Miami.
  • With USC's win in the Pac-10 final, Penn State falls out.  San Diego State is currently the last team in.

Keep in mind that since I'll probably be giving the Last Four In and First Four Out groups another careful look tomorrow, so there could still be another change or two coming.  A Mississippi State win in the SEC final would clear up the bubble picture considerably, however.

Now to the updated numbers...

ONE-BID LEAGUES (18)

Binghamton (America East), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Portland State (Big Sky), Radford (Big South), Cal State-Northridge/Pacific (Big West), VCU (Colonial), Cornell (Ivy), Siena (Metro Atlantic) Akron (MAC), Morgan State (MEAC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Morehead State (Ohio Valley), American (Patriot), Chattanooga (Southern), Stephen F. Austin/Texas-San Antonio (Southland), Alabama State (SWAC), North Dakota State (Summit), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

LIKELY ONE BID LEAGUES (4)

Memphis (C-USA), Northern Iowa (MVC),Gonzaga (WCC), Utah State (WAC)

LOCKS IN MULTI-BID LEAGUES (9 automatic qualifiers, 30 at-larges)

ACC (6) - North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College
Atlantic-10 (3) - Xavier, Dayton, Temple
Big East (7) -  Louisville, Pittsburgh,Connecticut, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Marquette
Big Ten (6) - Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan,
Big 12 (5) - Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State
Horizon (2) - Butler, Cleveland State
Mountain West (2) - Utah, BYU
Pacific 10 (5) - Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, California, USC
Southeastern (2) - LSU, Tennessee

That accounts for 60 of 65 teams, meaning we have 24 teams fighting for five spots, though only 12 or 13 of them have realistic hopes.  Maryland's status is also up in the air, but they don't fit in the lock or last four in categories.

Here the remaining teams under consideration, presented in S-curve order.

LAST FOUR IN
Minnesota
Texas A&M
San Diego State
Creighton

FIRST FOUR OUT
Saint Mary's
Penn State
Arizona
New Mexico

NEXT FOUR OUT
Auburn
UNLV
Florida
South Carolina

ALSO CONSIDERED - Virginia Tech, Davidson. Baylor, Mississippi State, Providence, Illinois State, Niagara, UAB, Kentucky, Northwestern, Duquesne, Rhode Island

I will probably do a bit of a mini update with my morning review/preview post to reflect the Big West final, but the next full update will be my final one later this afternoon.

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Looking at the bubble situation in terms of tiers

This is how I see it (one difference: I don’t have Minnesota as a lock as you do, so instead of four teams below getting in, five will):

First Tier:
Maryland
Minnesota
Penn State
Texas A&M
San Diego State
Arizona
Creighton
Saint Mary’s

Second Tier:
South Carolina
New Mexico
Providence
Auburn
UNLV
Florida

Third Tier:
Rhode Island
Virginia Tech
Kansas State
Davidson

Fourth Tier:
Miami (FL)
Northwestern
Baylor
Tulsa
UAB

I guess the last two tiers are only there for show, but I thought I might add them in just to include every conceivable team. I really feel that there are only 8 teams competing for those final five slots, but it is possible one team from the second tier sneaks in. My 5 (no particular order): Minnesota, Maryland, Texas A&M, San Diego State, and Saint Mary’s (VERY barely).

by uclaisthebest123 on Mar 15, 2009 2:25 AM EDT reply actions  

Actually, that was my mistake...

…since Minnesota is in the Last Four In group, they can’t be counted as a lock, so I corrected that. Maryland is also not a lock, but they’re barely above the Last Four In group.

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by Chris Dobbertean on Mar 15, 2009 9:35 AM EDT reply actions  

Five open spots

Seems to be significantly more than the 2-3 projected yesterday based on some of those conference championship results. Good news for all of those bubble teams out there.

I feel like the two toughest teams (who might be fighting for the final spot) are Penn State and St. Mary’s. SMC can be good with Patty Mills but he missed so much it’s hard to judge their season. Meanwhile, PSU screwed themselves by playing a horrible non-con schedule…you’d think they’d learn something from the football team.

by D.M.J. on Mar 15, 2009 11:11 AM EDT reply actions  

The big problem for the Gaels...

…is I’m not sure how much we can glean from a game against Eastern Washington either. I agree with you 100% on Penn State. Facing Iowa twice and Indiana 3x in the Big Ten doesn’t help them either.

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by Chris Dobbertean on Mar 15, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

You better believe I'm going to spend most of my afternoon...

…crunching the numbers again. It’s really all going to depend on what’s most important to the Committee in the end. Is it performance in the last 12? Conference record? Non-conference record? The eye test? Road/neutral record? It’s going to be very difficult to compare Arizona, St. Mary’s, Creighton, Penn State, and San Diego State evenly.

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by Chris Dobbertean on Mar 15, 2009 12:20 PM EDT reply actions  

Here is how you compare them

Out of those 5 teams, SDSU has the best RPI (35) best strength of schedule (35).

Brady Hoke, Al Borges, and Rocky Long. Aztec football is back!

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Mar 15, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

But the RPI is a flawed formula...

…which is why the committee only uses it as one tool. I take SOS with a dash of salt too because a majority of every team’s schedule is against their own conference and, therefore, beyond their control. I’m really having my doubts about the Aztecs right now, especially with the struggle that game was yesterday. Not a good final impression.

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by Chris Dobbertean on Mar 15, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

How much can you really penalize SDSU for losing yesterday?

They lost by 2 in a hard-fought game to arguably the best team in a strong MWC in the championship game, in a tournament where they already beat UNLV and #1 seed BYU. That sounds solid to me.

by uclaisthebest123 on Mar 15, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd have Creighton as my 'last in'

SDSU right before them.

So if Miss. State wins, it’d be Creighton, not SDSU getting knocked out.
I don’t have St. Mary’s in… I don’t think you do either, and Bracketology does. Not sure… they could potentially get in over SDSU though.

by UtesFan89 on Mar 15, 2009 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, it was close...

…but it was an ugly, ugly game. Not the impression you want to leave if you’re trying to prove to people you can win a game in the tournament.

Visit bloggingthebracket.com, SBNation's, bracketology site!

by Chris Dobbertean on Mar 15, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yep, PSU Screwed Themselves

Losing to Iowa at the end of the regular season set up a first round B10 Tourney with my Hoosiers. The loss to Iowa really hurt them and beating IU did absolutely nothing for them.

by D.M.J. on Mar 15, 2009 12:28 PM EDT reply actions  

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