The Numbers Game - How Many Spots Are Really Left?

I've been meaning to do one of these for awhile.  Here's how I see the race for bids with just a little less than 29 hours to go.  I'll be updating and reposting it as games go on and I release brackets.

ONE-BID LEAGUES (18)

Binghamton (America East), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Portland State (Big Sky), Radford (Big South), Cal State-Northridge/Pacific (Big West), VCU (Colonial), Cornell (Ivy), Siena (Metro Atlantic) Akron/Buffalo (MAC), Morgan State/Norfolk State (MEAC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Morehead State (Ohio Valley), American (Patriot), Chattanooga (Southern), Stephen F. Austin/Texas-San Antonio (Southland), Alabama State/Jackson State (SWAC), North Dakota State (Summit), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

LIKELY ONE BID LEAGUES (4)

Memphis (C-USA), Northern Iowa (MVC),Gonzaga (WCC), Utah State/Nevada (WAC)

LOCKS IN MULTI-BID LEAGUES (9 automatic qualifiers, 28 at-larges)

ACC (6) - North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson, Boston College
Atlantic-10 (3) - Xavier, Dayton, Temple/Duquesne
Big East (7) - Pittsburgh, Louisville, Connecticut, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Marquette
Big Ten (7) - Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota
Big 12 (5) - Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State
Horizon (2) - Butler, Cleveland State
Mountain West (2) - Utah, BYU
Pacific 10 (4) - Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, California
Southeastern (2) - LSU, Tennessee

CLOSE TO LOCK (1) - San Diego State

That accounts for 61 of 65 teams, meaning we have 22 teams fighting for four spots, though only 12 or 13 of them have realistic hopes. 

Keep in mind that if Mississippi State or Auburn win the SEC or Baylor wins the Big 12, at-large spots will disappear for those auto bids.

As of my last bracket (from 2 a.m.), these are... (presented in S-curve order)

LAST FOUR IN
Maryland
Penn State
Texas A&M
Arizona

FIRST FOUR OUT
USC
New Mexico
Saint Mary's
UNLV

NEXT FOUR OUT
Creighton
Auburn
Florida
Providence

ALSO CONSIDERED - Virginia Tech, Davidson. Baylor, Northwestern, Illinois State, Niagara, UAB, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Duquesne

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